What drives our Beer Consumption?---In Search of Nutrition Habits and Demographic Patterns

Conventional wisdom in Germany claims pork hocks with sauerkraut and beer. But is it really that simple? In an unbalanced cross-country panel covering 169 nations and time-series records of up to 52 years, we analyse drivers behind beer consumption. Based on data gathered from Worldbank and Faostat, we run multivariate panel regressions and test for the explanatory power of three categories of food and six macroeconomic and demographic variables. Indeed, we confirm most clichés of a typical beer drinker being a middle-aged urbanite with a strong desire for pork and potatoes, however, disliking cheese and wine.     

Effects of Aspirations and Habits on the Distribution of Wealth

We analyze how the introduction of habits and aspirations affects the distribution of wealth when the labor productivity of individuals is subject to idiosyncratic shocks and when bequests arise from a joy‐of‐giving motive. In the presence of either bequests or aspirations, labor income shocks are transmitted intergenerationally, and this transmission, together with contemporaneous shocks, determines the distribution of wealth. We show that the introduction of aspirations (habits) decreases (increases) the average wealth, and increases (decreases) both its intragenerational variability and the degree of intergenerational mobility. Therefore, a distinction between aspirations and habits is relevant because they involve different implications for the distribution of wealth.     

Wealth Effects and Consumption: A Panel VAR Approach

We provide new evidence on the comparison between the stock and housing wealth effects on consumption. Using a panel VAR approach applied to OECD data, we find evidence that the stock market wealth effect is generally the larger. However, with regard to the evolution of asset wealth effects over time, our findings show that the housing wealth effect has outweighed the share market wealth effect in the last decade. We further find that asset wealth has asymmetric effects on consumption, with stronger and more persistent effects from positive asset wealth shocks. Our results have important monetary policy implications for both stock and real estate markets, and offer timely insights into the desirability of current proposals to reduce house price volatility, such as through macro prudential regulations.     

Sticky Consumption and Wealth Effects in Switzerland

When assessing the effect of changes in wealth on household expenditures, most empirical studies have used cointegration‐based approaches. These approaches rely on the existence of a stable long‐run relationship among consumption, wealth, and income. However, in Switzerland no such relationship seems to be present after 2001. Motivated by this issue, this paper applies a recently suggested approach to estimating long‐run wealth effects on consumption that does not rely on cointegration. This new approach relies on sticky consumption growth, which can be motivated by consumption habits or sticky expectations. In both cases, long‐run wealth effects are the result of short‐run reactions of households to changes in wealth which become long‐lasting. Using this methodology, the estimated wealth effects on consumption in Switzerland are larger than suggested by cointegration‐based estimates. Furthermore, the results show that there seems to be a remarkably high degree of consumption stickiness in Switzerland.     

Relative Wealth, Consumption Taxation, and Economic Growth

This paper examines the role of the relative wealth-induced status motive in affecting the neutrality of consumption taxation in an optimizing growth model. It is found that a key factor determining the validity of the neutrality of consumption taxation in both the level sense and the growth rate sense is the desire for relative wealth-induced social status. When individuals care about their relative wealth, a rise in consumption tax enhances the steady-state level of capital stock and consumption. Furthermore, if the production function takes a linear technology form as the engine of sustained growth, then increases in consumption taxation raise the economy's long-run growth rate. In addition, an optimal consumption tax policy provides full subsidies to consumption so as to induce the economy to achieve the social optimum and the optimal growth rate.     

改革开放三十年市场化成果对国民消费的影响研究

梳理并回顾改革开放三十年以来经济重大成就以及一步步走向市场化的历史进程,深入分析经济改革中的各项指标对中国经济的影响。根据三十年消费与收入数据,采用回归分析,将三十年分三阶段建立模型。研究结果显示,三十年以来随着中国经济迅速发展,边际消费呈现递减趋势,体现出中国经济的发展成果。各项改革措施分别会对中国经济产生怎样的影响,该如何进行量化,值得深入思考。     

居民资产、财富效应与我国城镇居民消费

现代消费理论认为财富是影响居民消费的重要因素,并且各种财富形式对消费水平影响不同.对我国居民资产财富效应的实证研究表明,股票资产在长期对居民消费有负向影响.财富效应微弱,而房产财富对居民消费的正向效应比较明显,刺激消费作用较强.当前财富效应的产生与我国股市发展不稳定及房地产市场的发展特性相关,而个人可支配收入和储蓄仍是影响我国居民消费支出的主要因素.     

House Prices,Wealth and Consumption: New Evidence from Australia and Canada

Over the past two decades, a number of countries have experienced appreciation in house prices at the same time that aggregate consumption has increased. This paper tests alternative hypotheses for this phenomenon by using repeated household surveys from Australia and Canada to identify the transmission mechanism that links consumption and household wealth. The empirical analysis suggests that neither a direct wealth effect nor a common causal factor likely accounts for the observed correlation between wealth and consumption in these two countries. Rather, indirect factors such as collateral effects arising from relaxation of credit constraints are a more likely explanation.     

Consumption Responses to a Large Shock to Financial Wealth: Evidence from Italy

We estimate marginal propensities to consume from wealth shocks. We exploit large asset-price shocks in 2007–2008 and household-level panel data to implement instrumental variables. A fall of one euro in risky financial wealth resulted in cuts to annual total (non-durable) consumption of 8.5–9 (5.5–5.7) cents, with small effects on food spending. Effects seem stronger for lower-wealth or indebted households, but significant responses from wealthier households and those without mortgages are important for our baseline results. Counterfactuals indicate financial-wealth effects were relatively important for consumption falls in Italy in 2007–2008. The estimated effects are consistent with a simulated life-cycle model capturing the wealth shock.     

地区差异、财政支出与居民消费

笔者利用跨期优化理论导出实证方程,然后运用1998年~2006年中国省级面板数据进行估计,并分析各地区政府财政总支出及其功能性分类支出对当地居民消费的影响。研究表明:1.地区差异对地方财政支出对居民消费的效应有重要影响。地方财政总支出对居民消费是一种不显著的挤出效应,这种挤出效应因不同地区、不同时期而不同;2.在国家实施积极财政政策时期,只有西部地区其他支出对居民消费有显著的挤出效应,其他地区的其他功能性分类财政支出对居民消费的效应均不显著;在国家实施稳健性财政政策时期,功能性分类财政支出对居民消费的影响随地区不同而不同。     

从爱国消费到习惯形成:平台经济背景下电商中介效应对国货销售的影响研究

随着华为Mate60 Pro的回归,国内消费者对国货的热情再度被激发。与此同时,近年来各大电商平台上的国货销售量快速增长。国潮活动、网店预售和直播销售成为消费者购买国货的重要方式。然而,如何利用平台经济和电商的力量将消费热情转化为消费习惯,并促使消费者形成常态化的购买意愿,是亟需深入研究和探讨的课题。本研究采用扎根理论和偏最小二乘定量分析方法,验证了电商平台在促进国货消费习惯形成中的中介作用。研究认为,电商平台在开展国货销售活动时应更加注重以中国文化为基础,重点满足消费者对精神追求的需求。这一研究为未来的实践奠定了理论基础,同时也填补了相关研究的不足和空白。     

Consumption,Income, and Wealth: Evidence from Age,Cohort, and Period Elasticities

This paper examines the relationship between non‐durable consumption, income, and wealth (housing and financial) allowing explicitly for generational heterogeneity. A framework is proposed to disentangle cohort, age, and period effects and the empirical analysis is based on the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey data. We find that there are significant generational differences and the results highlight the range of elasticities implicit in results presented, thus far, by age groups. Moreover, we find supporting evidence of humped shaped age profiles for the elasticity of consumption with respect to income and the importance of financial wealth for those aged 60+. The framework also allows us to generate cohort profiles which draw attention to the negative role of housing wealth for generation X, and period profiles which reinforce the role of financial wealth for the baby‐boom generation.     

中国资本市场影响消费水平的实证检验

美国金融危机给世界经济带来巨大的冲击,由于中国资本市场严重滞后于实体经济,因此监管者不应误读美国金融危机的教训。股市适度上涨有利于消费扩张,中国应稳健有序地推进资本市场的发展。满足运行中的融资需求。以挖掘和发挥对实体经济的支持功效。     

Thinking Like a Trader: The Impact of Neoliberal Doctrine on Habits of Thought

Neoliberalism has come out of the financial crisis unscathed. Moreover, it has further asserted its dominance over geopolitical discourse and ideology worldwide. I contend that neoliberal supremacy in the policy arena and upon domestic and international institutions has been largely uncontested because it has penetrated all aspects of life to the extent that it now represents what Thorstein Veblen referred to as “the modern point of view.” Understanding the global power of neoliberalism requires examining not only its well-established hegemony over institutions as social constructs, but also its impact on habits of thought as mental constructs. From a Veblenian perspective, I argue that the neoliberal doctrine generates habits of thought which legitimize the transformation of a marketoriented economy into a full-fledged market society. The impact of the normalization of the neoliberal mode of behavior may, in the end, worsen the fracture between nation and state and unravel the fabric of society by justifying fully detached, emotion-free, and self-centered actions that crowd-out pro-social behaviors and challenge any social conception of the common good.     

我国居民消费与经济增长关系的区域差异研究

利用1997—2009年全国30个省(市、自治区)的省际面板数据,构建了我国居民消费与经济增长关系的动态面板数据模型,运用广义矩估计方法对我国居民消费与经济增长关系的区域差异进行了实证分析。结果表明:东、中、西部三大地区的当期人均实际GDP对当期人均实际居民消费均具有显著影响,且前一期人均实际居民消费对当期人均实际居民消费也均具有显著影响,但各地区的消费习惯的程度不同。     

我国国际资本流动性程度和非流动性原因的度量与检验--来自中美日三国消费模式对比的经验证据

加入WTO以后,我国的国际资本流动性开始有所加强,流动方式也有所改变。文章选择中国、美国和日本的消费和收入数据,在国家之间实际利率均衡的假设下,通过国家消费模式的考察和对比,发现我国的经济运行并不满足国际资本完全流动性假说,其原因既出于我国资本市场与国际资本市场之间存在进入限制,也出于我国资本市场与国际资本市场的非完全整合。这些经验发现表明,我国经济中的名义利率、汇率和资本市场仍然处于有限管制过程中,必须通过深化国内金融体制改革和逐步实现资本市场开放等有力措施来增强我国国际资本的流动性,进而保持我国快速经济增长和提高整体资源配置效率。     

真诚领导理论与启示

真诚领导指的是一种将领导者的人生经历、积极心理能量及道德观念与高度发展的支持性组织气氛结合起来发挥作用的过程。本文介绍了真诚性、真诚领导和真诚领导者的概念与特点,分析了真诚领导的发展机制及影响效果。并对真诚领导理论的启示意义与未来研究趋势进行了讨论。     

Habits of Thought and the Process of Economic Development: Remarks on Receiving the Veblen-Commons Award

Among the many insightful contributions of Thorstein Veblen and John R. Commons is that habits of thought matter. Habits of thought condition policy and place limits on what is possible. This article tackles five habits of thought that inhibit the process of economic development. These include: (i) the confusion of economic development with economic growth; (ii) the crowding-out hypothesis; (iii) the concept of the steady state economy; (iv) the peak oil hypothesis; and (v) the inevitability of economic progress. None of the discussions in this article are intended to minimize the importance of other very real constraints to the development process. A few of these other constraints are war, racism, sexism, political instability, corruption, and climate change.     

基于面板数据的河南农村文化消费地区差异研究

利用2000---2009年河南各省辖市的统计数据,根据面板数据模型对河南省各地区农村文化消费主要影响因素的差异性进行分析,结果显示：高收入地区农村文化消费对价格和收入反应更敏感,而中低收入地区则受前期消费水平的影响较深,这说明河南省不同地区的农村居民由于收入水平的差异,所处的消费阶段并不完全相同,因此我们在制定政策时,应该考虑到这种阶段性的差异,有针对性的采取对策。     

Consumption, Wealth, and Indebtedness in the Context of Uncertainty: The Consumption Function Meets Portfolio Theory

The objective of this paper is to provide a sound theoretical framework for the empirical analysis of consumer indebtedness, by integrating Portfolio theory with the Life-Cycle hypothesis (LCH) model of consumption. Modern versions of this LCH theory almost always assume that utility is additive over time, but in this study, the multiplicative Cobb–Douglas function is used. The new synthesis also explains the stochastic properties of consumption more fully and clearly than previous studies, in particular the uncertainty arising from rates of return on risky assets. The new theory will also help to improve the explanation of the surprise changes in consumption because these sources of risk are incorporated explicitly into the analysis.