Frequency based analysis of collective aggregation rules

A new property for collective aggregation rules called positive discrimination is introduced. This property is satisfied by many anonymous and neutral collective aggregation rules. We discuss unimodal profiles (or distributions) for which this property on its own determines the outcome as the mode of a unimodal distribution. We investigate relaxations of this unimodal distribution condition and show that the Condorcet consistent rules as well as the Borda rule and the plurality rule have the mode as the outcome at such profiles. Further, we show, by an example, how the addition of unimodal profiles and the property of positive discrimination can help to determine an outcome in the case of a large number of voters.     

A dynamic analysis of moving average rules

The use of various moving average (MA) rules remains popular with financial market practitioners. These rules have recently become the focus of a number empirical studies, but there have been very few studies of financial market models where some agents employ technical trading rules of the type used in practice. In this paper, we propose a dynamic financial market model in which demand for traded assets has both a fundamentalist and a chartist component. The chartist demand is governed by the difference between current price and a (long-run) MA. Both types of traders are boundedly rational in the sense that, based on a fitness measure such as realized capital gains, traders switch from a strategy with low fitness to the one with high fitness. We characterize the stability and bifurcation properties of the underlying deterministic model via the reaction coefficient of the fundamentalists, the extrapolation rate of the chartists and the lag length used for the MA. By increasing the intensity of choice to switching strategies, we then examine various rational routes to randomness for different MA rules. The price dynamics of the MA rule are also examined and one of our main findings is that an increase of the window length of the MA rule can destabilize an otherwise stable system, leading to more complicated, even chaotic behaviour. The analysis of the corresponding stochastic model is able to explain various market price phenomena, including temporary bubbles, sudden market crashes, price resistance and price switching between different levels.     

A quantitative analysis of optimal sustainable monetary policies

This study examines the quantitative properties of optimal sustainable monetary policies using a monetary model with a stabilization bias. As in Kurozumi (2008), the optimal sustainable policy is a strategy considered in the absence of commitment technologies; however it is implemented following an optimal quasi-sustainable policy derived by assuming that the commitment technologies are present. This study finds that solving for the policy function of the optimal quasi-sustainable policy yields a result basically identical to the Ramsey-optimal commitment policy under a set of parameters commonly used in the literature. The simulation shows two further results: policymakers have incentive to deviate from the Ramsey-optimal commitment policy when the lagged output gap is large and the optimal quasi-sustainable policy endogenously diminishes the steadfastness of policymakers׳ commitment.     

Lessons from a century of FED policy: Why monetary and credit policies need rules and boundaries

Wide operational and financial independence given to monetary and credit policies subjects the Federal Reserve to incentives detrimental for macroeconomic and financial stability. The absence of a monetary policy rule created go-stop incentives that produced inefficient volatility of both inflation and unemployment during the Great Inflation. Fed credit policy has undergone massive “mission creep” since the Fed was established. Being debt-financed fiscal policy, Fed credit policy beyond ordinary temporary lending to solvent depositories creates friction with the fiscal authorities and jeopardizes the Fed׳s independence. An ambiguous boundary of expansive Fed credit policy creates expectations of Fed accommodation in financial crisis—that blunts the incentive of private entities to take protective measures beforehand (to shrink counter-party risk and reliance on short-term finance, and build up equity capital) and blunts the incentive of the fiscal authorities to prepare procedures in advance to act systematically in times of credit turmoil. These points are illustrated with reference to the 2007–09 financial crisis. Part of the problem is that the independent Fed does not have the same incentive as the 19th century Bank of England to follow Bagehot׳s Rule. The paper concludes with a set of principles to preserve a workable, sustainable division of responsibilities between the independent central bank and the fiscal authorities.     

Priority rules for check processing in multiple branch banking: An experimental analysis

The check-processing activity represents a major function in a commercial bank. If checks are quickly processed through the bank, then funds will be transferred to appropriate accounts and the bank will experience minimum float. This paper discusses the use of priority rules to maximize the dollar value of checks processed each day. A series of experiments are developed to test a set of priority rules (heuristics) under different operating conditions of check processing capacity, transit dollar levels, and branch characteristics. The results indicate that significant differences in performance are present for different rules. Also, the usefulness of some rules are dependent upon the commercial bank's operating characteristics, which has important implications for operating managers.     

Migration and public policies: a further empirical analysis

This study of internal migration at the state level empirically investigates the Tiebout hypothesis (as extended by Tullock) of “voting with one’s feet.” In addition to its adoption of more current data (net migration from July, 2000 through July, 2008) than other related studies to date, the model differs from most previous comparable studies by including a separate cost of living variable and a measure of per capita state income tax burdens. We also test the hypothesis using two alternative specifications: one linear and the other semi-log. Finally, the analysis also provides both OLS and 2SLS estimates. The advantage of this multi-faceted approach is that it permits an assessment of how sensitive the results are to specification changes and to different estimation procedures. After controlling for economic factors and a quality of life/climate variable, migrants (consumer-voters) appear to prefer lower state income tax burdens, lower state plus local property tax burdens, and higher per pupil outlays on primary and secondary public education.     

Second-best policies for congestion externalities

This is the third in a series of three articles on the topic of congestion externalities. We use an urban general-equilibrium model to test the efficiency of several second-best policies for congestion externalities. The most efficient second-best policy is a program of land-use controls; the program generates a welfare gain of $3.38 per household per week. A unit tax on commuting is a less efficient policy, with a welfare gain of $1.15.     

Liability rules for toxics cleanup

This paper addresses the following question: If the objective of public policy is to promote efficiency in the markets for hazardous waste disposal, who should pay for the cleanup of unsafe (e.g., Superfund) disposal sites? It is shown that waste generators and taxpayers should share the costs of cleanup, with the cost shares being determined by the values of several parameters.     

On stable rules for selecting committees

A voting rule is said to be stable if it always elects a fixed-size subset of candidates such that there is no outside candidate who is majority preferred to any candidate in this set whenever such a set exists. Such a set is called a Weak Condorcet Committee (WCC). Four stable rules have been proposed in the literature. In this paper, we propose two new stable rules. Since nothing is known about the properties of the stable rules, we evaluate all the identified stable rules on the basis of some appealing properties of voting rules. We show that they all satisfy the Pareto criterion and they are not monotonic. More, we show that every stable rule fails the reinforcement requirement.     

Maximin choice of voting rules for committees

In the context of a probabilistic voting model with dichotomous choice, we investigate the consequences of choosing among voting rules according to the maximin criterion. A voting rule is the minimum number of voters who vote favorably on a change from the status quo required for it to be adopted. We characterize the voting rules that satisfy the maximin criterion as a function of the distribution of voters’ probabilities to favor change from the status quo. We prove that there are at most two maximin voting rules, at least one is Pareto efficient and is often different to the simple majority rule. If a committee is formed only by “conservative voters” (i.e. voters who are more likely to prefer the status quo to change) then the maximin criterion recommends voting rules that require no more voters supporting change than the simple majority rule. If there are only “radical voters”, then this criterion recommends voting rules that require no less than half of the total number of votes.Received: June 2003, Accepted: September 2004, JEL Classification: D71Salvador Barberá, Carmen Beviá, Mirko Cardinale, Wioletta Dziuda, Joan Esteban, Mahmut Erdem, Bernard Grofman, Matthew Jackson, Kai Konrad, Raul Lopez, Jordi Massó, Hugh Mullan, Shmuel Nitzan, Ana Pires do Prado, Elisabeth Schulte, Arnold Urken and two anonymous referees provided helpful comments. Finally, I also acknowledge financial support from Capes, Brazilian Ministry of Education and Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology (Project BEC2002-02130).     

Empirical Bayes analysis of log-linear models for a generalized finite stationary Markov chain

This article presents the empirical Bayes method for estimation of the transition probabilities of a generalized finite stationary Markov chain whose ith state is a multi-way contingency table. We use a log-linear model to describe the relationship between factors in each state. The prior knowledge about the main effects and interactions will be described by a conjugate prior. Following the Bayesian paradigm, the Bayes and empirical Bayes estimators relative to various loss functions are obtained. These procedures are illustrated by a real example. Finally, asymptotic normality of the empirical Bayes estimators are established.     

Optimal stopping rules for multinomial observations

Many times sampling from a known or an unknown population results in observations that are integers and there is a payoff which depends on the observations. Thus, the experimenter is tempted to continue sampling in the hope of increasing his payoff. On the other hand, usually each observation costs a fixed amount and thus the experimenter also is reluctant to continue sampling because each additional sample increases the total sampling cost. The problem is to determine a place to stop making observations such that thenet payoff is a maximum. This paper considers stopping rules which will maximize the net payoff to the experimenter when the observations come from a multinomial population.     

企业自主品牌创建六法则

品牌象征着财富,标志着品质,积淀着文化,是企业商战中最重要的无形资产.海尔集团CEO张瑞敏说:"没有自主品牌,容易陷入产业链底端".在市场进入品牌竞争阶段,企业若拥有成功自主品牌,就意味着拥有较高的利润和较多的市场份额,对此,中外企业都着力打造.中国加入WTO,面对更加开放的市场越来越多涌入的国际品牌,实施品牌战略,已成为生存和发展的需要.     

促销多打文化牌

英特尔是知名度很高的公司,但是该公司在推销新产品时,并不仅仅靠名气,相反,十分注重文化促销。比如他们推出10M/100M桥接器时,采用通俗易懂的话剧来进行产品的推广。该话剧借用白雪公主与六个小矮人的故事,白雪公主有一颗     

On the role of institutional factors in shaping working capital management policies: Empirical evidence from European listed firms

The study examines the impact of institutional factors on working capital management for a sample of 5431 European listed firms over the period 2010–2018. Employing a weighted least squares (WLS) methodology, we provide empirical evidence on the role of institutional quality in shaping the working capital policies of European listed firms. The results indicate that firms located in countries with a stronger institutional framework maintain lower levels of working capital on average. The results are robust to different subsamples of firms. The study complements the extant literature by analyzing the effects of institutional quality on working capital management, across a large number of different institutional systems specific to developed and transition economies alike. The results are useful for practitioners and policy makers in understanding the relationship between institutional quality and short-term firm-level decisions.     

政府审计职责法律制度的实证分析

本文在透视我国审计立法对政府审计职责制度安排的基础上,通过对我国政府审计职责制度运行效果的剖析,揭示了我国现行政府审计职责制度设计存在的缺陷,从有利于更好发挥政府审计职责作用的角度,对完善我国政府审计职责法律制度作了一些理性思考。     

Retirement policies for the 21st century

As we rapidly approach the 21st century, current human resource management policies emphasizing early retirement may prove shortsighted. Changing demographics and projected labor shortages in certain critical occupations may require a reversal of present early retirement policies. This article reports the views of a national sample of 897 executives on work and retirement. We report their reactions to pressures for early retirement, their responses to proposed incentives to delay retirmeent, and finally, their planned post retirement activities. Their responses have important implications for revising human resource policies in the years ahead.     

Inventory policies for humanitarian aid during hurricanes

In this work we present a stochastic programming model minimizing costs, to support the decision process of inventory policy which best satisfies the demand for food in shelters when hurricane winds are about to impact a town. In this model we consider perishable products as well as the first in first out (FIFO) system for their consumption. In order to make the model closer to reality ordering cost is time-varying and we add a penalty cost in case the shortage exceeds a known limit for two days in a row. Finally the cost to dispose of expired food is greater than the purchase cost of the product since throwing away food has ethical implications. Starting from a stochastic programming model, we present a procedure to transform it to a deterministic mixed integer programming model (MIP) with non-convex objective function over its entire domain, which closely states the situation in reality. Preliminary computational results and discussion are presented.     

Decision rules for the choice of structural equations

In practical econometric analysis we are faced with the problem of how to specify structural equations. The conventional t-test of coefficients is apparently inappropriate. The smallest root, say λ, of a certain determinantal equation provides us with basis for the test of overidentifying restrictions. The preliminary test, based on λ, may give us a possible decision rule for choosing a structural equation from nested alternatives. However, ambiguity remains in specifying the significance level. We propose a decision method called the unbiased decision rule; unbiased in the sense that we attain a correct decision with probability of more than a half. The critical points are found as the medians of non-central F-distributions. The degrees of freedom and the non-centrality parameter of non-central F-distributions are determined by the properties of contending models. We also discuss the implications of the unbiased decision rule in the context of the conventional pre-test.