投资信息缺失下资本存量K估计的两种新方法

用永续盘存法测算资本存量依赖于投资信息的可得性,一旦投资信息缺失,永续盘存法便不可以直接用来测算资本存量,即使勉强使用该方法测算资本存量,其结果的准确性和可信度便可能大幅度降低。本文尝试提出了两种全新的测算资本存量的方法,即等资本-产量比法和哈罗德-多马模型法,弥补了永续盘存法的不足和扩展了其适用范围。本文并以海洋经济为例分别使用两种方法测算其资本存量K,并对测量结果进行了对比,分析了两种测量方法的适用性。     

人力资本积累、多元技术适应能力与发展中国家经济增长

发展中国家的多元技术适应能力,是内生于自身总体的人力资本积累存量和人均的人力资本积累水平、以及自身的总体的人力资本积累存量和人均的人力资本积累水平在整个世界中的相对比较地位.发展中国家加速人力资本积累,其多元技术适应能力就越强,这样能够充分有效地利用人力资本和资本促进产业结构升级,进而提高其稳态经济增长率,从而使其经济...     

“城市文化资本”与经济增长关系的实证研究

在低碳经济兴起和城市发展模式转型的背景下,“城市文化资本”运作成为寻求城市可持续发展动力机制的创新。在借鉴现有研究基础上,本文构建了“城市文化资本”估算体系并以江苏省为例测算了2010年各地级市的文化资本存量,研究发现江苏省城际“城市文化资本”存在显著差异。其特点表现为：一是沿江地区、沿海地区、内陆地区依次递减,二是苏南地区、苏中地区、苏北地区依次递减。在此基础上,运用修正的C—D函数模型对“城市文化资本”与经济增长关系作了回归分析,结果显示,虽然“城市文化资本”未能充分转换为经济资本,但也具有明显的促进经济增长作用。最后,就“城市文化资本”运作提出建议。     

我国政府资本存量的核算问题探析

政府是国家的代表,也是组成国家的重要社会成员之一.既有公共性质又有公有性质的资本,才是我国政府资本存量的核算对象.我国政府资本存量的核算范围,不仅取决于政府资本存量核算对象的确认,还取决于我国政府的职能范围,政府资本存量小于或等于政府净资产.编制改进的资产负债表是核算政府资本存量的有效方法.     

农村金融发展、资本存量提升与农村经济增长

研究目标：农村金融发展、资本存量提升对农村经济增长的影响。研究方法：采用永续盘存法测算农村资本存量,以1980~2014年小样本数据构建VEC模型,再进一步用Bootstrap Chow检验来研究制度变量的影响。研究发现：农户储蓄存款、资本存量能显著促进农村经济的增长,但提高农村金融机构存贷比对经济贡献不大;农村资本存量发挥正效应要经历较长时滞;农村金融促进经济增长的力度受制于国家宏观政策。研究创新：从技术层面对现有文献的金融指标进行精练,重新估测农村资本存量,特别注重小样本约束下的VEC建模技术,并在Chow检验时采用Bootstrap仿真方法来确定临界值。研究价值：从技术上深化了VEC模型适用性探讨,增强了有关农村金融实证结论的有效性。     

美国人力资本结构与再工业化的需求矛盾

通过对第二次世界大战后以及1995-2009年美国人力资本存量和作用的定性与实证分析,以及用脉冲模型(VAR)展开的人力资本存量的增长和人均GDP之间的相互影响的考证,可看出美国当前的人力资本存量状况不能满足再工业化需求,这为政府的政策制定提出约束.     

经济趋同与西部地区制度变迁

一、经济"趋同假说"的概念 经济"趋同假说"是由罗伯特·索罗提出来的.索罗假定,如果任何国家在长期没有技术进步率、储蓄率、人口增长率和资本折旧率的差异,那么投资收益率和人均产出增长率就预期是人均资本存量的递减函数.于是,在边际递减规律作用下,富国增长将会趋缓,穷国则相反,增长速度较快,而增长速度的差异会使落后地区赶上发达地区.经济增长理论将这种可能的现象称为经济增长的趋同现象.     

城市化水平、技术创新与城市经济增长——基于我国25个城市面板数据的实证研究

文章以新经济增长理论为基础,基于1999-2009年我国25个城市面板数据,对物质资本存量、人力资本存量、技术创新和城市化水平与城市经济增长之间的关系进行了实证研究。结果显示,人力资本投资对城市经济增长的作用没有显现出来,但城市化水平、物资资本投资及技术创新因素在不同程度上影响着城市经济增长,并且呈现出正相关关系。其中,城市化水平和物质资本投资对城市经济增长的促进效应较高,而技术创新对城市经济增长的促进效应并不明显。这一结论对于提升技术创新能力,加快城市化进程,推动城市经济增长具有启示意义。     

经济增长目标压力与城市绿色发展

以中国2003-2017年286个地级及以上城市政府工作报告中的经济增长目标数据为基础,对当年经济增长目标与过去实际经济增长均值之差进行归一化,构造经济增长目标压力指数,分析其对城市绿色发展水平的影响及其传导机制.研究表明,经济增长目标压力指数与绿色发展水平之间存在倒U型关系,过高的经济增长目标压力导致城市绿色发展水平下降,其传导机制在于:过高的经济增长目标压力导致地方财政支出、实际利用外资、资本存量、就业人数等增加,工业增加值占GDP比重和人均地区生产总值下降,污染产业产值占工业总产值比例上升、环境治理水平下降,进而抑制了城市绿色发展水平的提升.选择适度的经济增长目标有利于城市绿色发展.     

系统规划理论在存量空间规划中的应用模型研究

我国城乡规划正在迈入存量空间规划时代,针对存量空间规划的类型、特点和要求,从系统规划理论的视角总结存量空间规划的方法论特征,将城乡规划学近年兴起的城市系统规划理念运用于存量空间规划领域,演绎出存量空间系统规划的"钻石模型",构建存量空间系统规划的概念和应用模型。该应用模型分别从战略规划、产业规划、空间规划、项目策划、投融资规划、规划管理和政策落地角度,对系统规划理论在存量空间规划中的创新运用逻辑内容和工作途径进行总结,最后提出在新型城镇化背景下,开展存量空间系统规划的政策建议。     

城市轨道交通项目融资的偿债能力分析

城市轨道交通项目融资的贷款人并不是项目所有者,不可能从项目的投资中获得股本收益。因此,当贷款人在考察是否为采用项目融资方式建设的城市轨道交通项目提供融资时,所关心的重点是项目未来的偿债能力。本文在分析偿债资金来源的基础上,构造城市轨道交通项目的现金流模型,并从贷款偿还期、债务覆盖率、利息覆盖率、债务承受比率等方面,对城市轨道交通项目融资的偿债能力进行分析。     

Effects of an anticipated expansion in international public goods on public capital accumulation

This paper presents a generic model to include public capital accumulation and the services of international public goods provided by a neighbor country. It examines the long-run and short-run responses of private and public capital accumulation in the home country to an anticipated increase in international public goods. It is found that the home economy in effect cuts its public capital stock, but keeps an unchanged private capital stock in the long run when a neighbor commits itself to expanding the stock of public goods in the future. The key factor determining the short-run responses of the home country is the extent to which it will match its government spending with a neighbor country's policy, which is associated with the relative difference between the marginal utility of consumption and that of home public capital affected by an increase in international public goods.     

Monotonicity and continuity of the critical capital stock in the Dechert–Nishimura model

We show that the critical capital stock of the Dechert and Nishimura (1983) model is a decreasing and continuous function of the discount factor. We also show that the critical capital stock merges with a nonzero steady state as the discount factor decreases to a certain boundary value, and that the critical capital stock converges to the minimum sustainable capital stock as the discount factor increases to another boundary value.     

A sensitivity analysis on optimal economic growth

A model of capital accumulation is considered and the relation between the optimal path and the initial capital stock is analyzed. Mathematically speaking, the model is a convex model of infinite horizon in continuous time. The existence of optimal paths of capital accumulation is proved. By using the continuity of the value function, it is proved that the optimal path of capital accumulation is a continuous function of the initial capital stock. The analysis is so general that neither the smoothness of the model nor the interiority of the optimal path are made.     

Is technical change embodied in the capital stock or new investment?

The question of technical change and productivity growth is one of the fundamental empirical issues of our time. Surprisingly, Solow's original question of whether technical change is embodied in investment or the entire capital stock has been largely neglected. This paper seeks to bridge the early work of Solow and others on the extent of embodiment of technical change with the more modern approach to estimating the structure of production and technical change using multifactor cost functions. We also attempted to identify the source and structural nature of embodied technical change by decomposing it. Our theoretical model is applied to a pooled cross-section of six OECD countries for the 1965–1989 period. Our preferred model is one of full factor-augmenting embodied technical change because technical change augmenting the entire capital stock tends to overstate quality change in the aggregate capital stock more than that embodied in new investment. This model specification supports the view that technical change is embodied in the stock of capital structure and is embodied in new investment of capital equipment.     

A life-cycle model of repeat migration

"This paper develops a theoretical model which analyzes the impact of the spatial distribution of a family's stock of human capital on its migration decision. This stock of human capital is composed of location-specific and non-specific human capital. The distribution of location-specific capital is a function of the residential and employment history of the family, while non-specific capital is distributed evenly over space. An empirical specification of the model is derived and estimated with a [U.S.] data set consisting of a number of cases from the Michigan Panel Study of Income Dynamics."     

Co-determination of capital structure and stock returns—A LISREL approach: An empirical test of Taiwan stock markets

Titman and Wessels (1988) utilize a structural-equations model (LISREL) to find out the latent determinants of capital structure. Maddala and Nimalendran (1996) indicate that the problematic model specification causes the poor results in Titman and Wessels’ research. Chang, Lee, & Lee (2009) apply a Multiple Indicators and Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model to re-examine the same issue as Titman and Wessels did but found more convincing results. We extend Titman and Wessels’ research from using a single-equation approach to a multi-equations approach. In addition to the determinants of firms’ capital structure, those of stock returns are determined simultaneously. Literature indicates that a firm's capital structure may affect its stock returns (Bhandari, 1988), and the reverse is true too (Baker and Wurgler, 2002, Lucas and McDonald, 1990, Welch, 2004). Hence, a firm's determinants of its capital structure and those of its stock returns should be decided simultaneously, rather than independently. By solving the simultaneous equations, we examine the empirical relationship between the two endogenous variables: capital structure and stock returns and find out their common determinants as well. Our results show that stock returns, expected growth, uniqueness, asset structure, profitability, and industry classification are the main factors of capital structure, while the primary determinants of stock returns are leverage, expected growth, profitability, value and liquidity. The level of debt ratios and stock returns are mutually determined by the aforementioned factors and themselves.     

Capital utilization and capital accumulation: Theory and evidence

A firm may acquire additional capital input by purchasing new capital or by increasing the utilization of its current capital. The margin between capital accumulation and capital utilization is studied in a model of dynamic factor demand where the firm chooses capital, labour and their rates of utilization. A direct measure of capital utilization-the work week of capital-is incorporated into the theory and estimates. The estimates imply that capital stock is costly to adjust while the work week of capital is essentially costless to adjust. The estimated response of the capital stock to changes in its price and in the required rate of return is more rapid than found in other estimates.     

The effect of capital wealth on optimal diversification: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances

It is well known that the wealthier the household, the larger tends to be the proportion of its total capital portfolio allocated to publicly traded stock, and the larger tends to be the number of individual stock issues included in its portfolio. Using the “homogeneous securities” case of a mean-variance model originally proposed by Michael Brennan, explicit functional forms are obtained for both the optimal proportion of the portfolio allocated to stocks and the optimal number of individual stock issues in the portfolio. An empirical evaluation of these theoretical results, using a dataset derived from the 2004 Survey of Consumer Finances, lends substantial support to the model.     

The Hicksian trade cycle with floor and ceiling dependent on capital stock

This article reconsiders the Hicksian multiplier – accelerator model with ‘floor’ and ‘ceiling’. The new thrust is that these constraints are tied to the actual stock of capital, the floor to the depreciation on this stock, the ceiling to capital as a limiting production factor according to the fixed proportions technology that also underlies the principle of acceleration. For capital formation just the Hicksian investment theory is used. The result is one unified model creating economic growth and growth rate cycles.