Inequality of opportunity and income inequality in nine Chinese provinces, 1989–2006

While there is a large and growing body of research describing and analyzing changes in the Chinese income distribution, researchers have paid considerable less attention to inequality of opportunity. The aim of this paper is to contribute to filling this gap in the literature. The two main questions addressed empirically for the first time in a Chinese context are: to what extent are individuals’ incomes and individual income differences due to factors beyond the individual's control (in Roemer's terminology “circumstances”) and to what extent are they due to outcomes of the individual's own choices (“effort”). What is the relationship between income inequality and inequality of opportunity?For this purpose we use data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey collected from nine provinces during the period 1989 to 2006. The CHNS has detailed information about incomes and other factors enabling us to construct a host of circumstance and effort variables for the offspring.We find that China has a substantial degree of inequality of opportunity. Parental income and parents' type of employer explain about two thirds of the total inequality of opportunity. Notably, parental education plays only a minor role implying that parental connections remain important. The results show that the increase in income inequality during the period under study largely mirrors the increase in inequality of opportunity. Thus, increased income inequality does not reflect changes in effort variables, or expressed differently, increased income inequality has not been accompanied by a decrease in inequality of opportunity.     

New estimates of age‐ and sex‐specific earnings and the male–female earnings gap in the British cotton industry, 1833–19061

This article introduces a new set of estimates of average weekly age‐ and sex‐specific earnings paid at each year of age between 13 and 60 years of age to males and females employed in the British cotton industry between 1833 and 1906. As one example of the use of the estimates, the article shows how the estimates provide insights into changes in the male–female earnings gap in one key industrial group of workers in Victorian Britain. An appendix provides estimates of the population‐weighted average weekly full‐time money earnings of British cotton operatives, in pence per week, by sex, of the age groups: <13, 13–17, 18–60+, and 13–60+.     

Market Integration in the Golden Periphery. The Lisbon/London Exchange, 1854–1891

Portugal was the first independent nation to follow Britain in joining the gold standard. Although beset by persistent current account deficits and heavily dependent on foreign capital inflows, it enjoyed a relatively stable tenure of 37 years on gold. This paper shows how it was possible to secure currency stability, despite a lower credibility for the peg and a higher incidence of gold point violations than in core countries. The explanation lies in the central role played by institutional actors, such as the Bank of Portugal and/or the government, whose interventions in the exchange market kept the parity within the band.     

Agricultural productivity and rural incomes in England and the Yangtze Delta,c.1620–c.18201

The productivity of agriculture in England and the Yangtze Delta are compared c.1620 and c.1820 in order to gauge the performance of the most advanced part of China vis‐à‐vis its counterpart in Europe. The value of real output is compared using purchasing power parity exchange rates. Output per hectare was nine times greater in the Yangtze Delta than in England. More surprisingly, output per day worked was about 90 per cent of the English performance. This put Yangtze farmers slightly behind English and Dutch farmers c.1820, but ahead of most other farmers in Europe—an impressive achievement. There was little change in Yangtze agricultural productivity between 1620 and 1820. In 1820, the real income of a Yangtze peasant family was also about the same as that of an English agricultural labourer. All was not rosy in the Yangtze, however, for incomes there were on a downward trajectory. Agriculture income per family declined between 1620 and 1820, even though income per day worked changed little since population growth led to smaller farms and fewer days worked per year. The real earnings of women in textile production also declined, since the relative price of cotton cloth dropped—possibly also because a larger population led to greater production. The implication is that the Yangtze family, unlike the English family, had a considerably higher real income c.1620, and that period was the Delta's golden age.     

ECONOMIC GROWTH AND THE STRUCTURE OF TAXES IN SOUTH AFRICA: 1960–2002*

One tenet of taxation is its distorting effect on economic behaviour. Despite the economic inefficiencies resulting from taxation, it is widely believed that taxes impact minimally on the economy's growth rate. Evidence in developing countries generally supports this view. In this paper, we present evidence that tax distortions in South Africa may be much more severe. Using tax and economic data from 1960 to 2002 and a two‐stage modelling technique to control for unobservable business cycle variables, we examine the relationship between total taxation, the mix of taxation and economic growth. We find that decreased tax burdens are strongly associated with increased economic growth potential; in addition, contrary to most theoretical research, decreased indirect taxation relative to direct taxation is strongly correlated with increased economic growth potential.     

Scylla and Charybdis. Explaining Europe’s exit from gold, January 1928–December 1936

The paper examines the timing of exit from the interwar gold-exchange standard for a panel of European countries, based on monthly data over the period January 1928–December 1936. I show that exit from gold can be understood in terms of a trade-off between a limited set of factors commonly suggested in the theoretical literature on currency crises. A simple and parsimonious econometric framework that nests various hypotheses allows me to predict the month of exit in the 1930s, except for France. I consider the separate cases of France and Poland to show my results shed light on country-specific debates.     

Inequality in South Africa: The distribution of income,expenditure and earnings

This article empirically analyses the state of inequality in South Africa. International comparisons show South Africa to be among the most unequal countries in the world. The levels of income inequality and earnings inequality are analysed with a range of measures and methods. The results quantify the extremely high level of inequality in South Africa. Earnings inequality appears to be falling in recent years, with relative losses in the upper-middle parts of the earnings distribution. Decomposing income inequality by factor source reveals the importance of earnings in accounting for overall income inequality. The article concludes by observing that, internationally, significant sustained decreases in inequality rarely come about without policies aimed at achieving that, and suggests that strong policy interventions would be needed to reduce inequality in South Africa to levels that are in the range typically found internationally.     

‘Th'ancient Distaff’ and ‘Whirling Spindle’: measuring the contribution of spinning to household earnings and the national economy in England, 1550–17701

The purpose of this article is to estimate the workforce involved in spinning from the late sixteenth century until the eve of mechanization. In addition, the potential contribution to family earnings from spinning will be examined. Just about all of the millions of yards of woollen yarn that went into making English cloth had to be spun by women and children, but this activity has not been investigated to the extent that it deserves. Spinning was a skilled occupation where there was a great demand for the best quality product. Sources exist which make it possible to make general estimates of the amount of spinning needed in the economy, and its cost. This evidence shows that employment in spinning increased dramatically from the late seventeenth century, and continued to increase until there were probably over one million women and children employed in spinning by the mid‐eighteenth century. In addition earnings increased to the extent whereby earnings from spinning could contribute over 30 per cent of household income for poorer families. This has implications for looking at trends in real wages over time, as well as for the concept of the industrious revolution.     

Uncovering the Truth about Chinese Urban Unemployment Rates: 2005–2012

Using China Urban Household Survey data from 2005 to 2012, the present paper examines the changing pattern of China's urban unemployment rates. The paper shows that the annual urban unemployment rates during 2005–2012 averaged approximately 8.5 percent, as opposed to the official figure of approximately 4.1 percent, and despite the significant slowdown of GDP growth since 2008, the urban unemployment rates still exhibit a downward trend. This paper finds that continuous job creation in both the tertiary and the non‐state sectors helps explain the decreasing trend in unemployment rates. Meanwhile, the downward trend of the unemployment rates could also be explained by the fact that both the secondary industry and the state‐owned sector have destructed fewer jobs because of the execution of macroeconomic stimulus policies since 2008.     

当前我国税制的“税负刚性”特征、效应及政策建议——基于2013-2016年制造业上市公司数据的实证分析

2012年以来,我国经济增速明显放缓,经济结构面临重大调整,制造业普遍盈收水平下滑,而企业的利润税负水平却明显上升,"税负重感"增加。究其原因,是我国以流转税为主的税制存在"税负刚性"的特征和效应,实则反映了我国税制改革的迫切性。文章利用2013—2016年我国制造业上市公司的全样本数据,证实了"税负刚性"的存在性和显著性,并进一步结合其结构性效应的分析,对当前的税制改革提出了相应的政策建议。     

THE EVOLUTION OF GENDER EARNINGS GAPS AND DISCRIMINATION IN URBAN CHINA, 1988–95

This paper analyzes the impact of market liberalization on gender earnings differentials and discrimination against women in urban China at the beginning of the 1990s. The observed stability in the overall gender earnings gap between 1988 and 1995 is shown to result from a complex set of evolutions across enterprises, earnings distributions, and time. Our results highlight the interplay of opposing forces, with economic reforms contributing to changes in managers’ behaviors in different dimensions. On the one hand, by bringing more competition, liberalization favored a reduction in discriminating behaviors in both urban collectives and foreign‐invested enterprises; on the other hand, by relaxing institutional rules, it led to a loosening of the government's egalitarian wage‐setting policies, leaving more space for discrimination in state‐owned enterprises.     

Sources of Chinese labor productivity growth: A structural decomposition analysis, 1987–2005

We decompose labor productivity growth from 1987 to 2005 by examining six partial factors (both supply and demand): changes in value-added coefficients, labor inputs, shares of sectoral demands that are fulfilled domestically, input mix, and the intra-sectoral shares and intersectoral mix of final demand. Our analysis confirms that simply by virtue of its size and extremely low level of labor productivity, China's farm sector continues to weigh heavily in China's overall economic advances. Labor savings have levied the largest influence on the labor productivity on all sectors across all three study subperiods. We find that this transition is highly correlated with capital deepening that accompanies China's opening up process. Still, changes in the intra-sectoral shares and the intersectoral mix of China's final demand also have become quite strong, especially in recent periods. Due to ever-increasing competitive pressures as China continues to open, changes in industries value-added coefficients have tended to counteract some of the positive benefits of labor savings for most sectors. The effects on changes in labor productivity of technology change and changes in the use of imports have been comparatively negligible and any variation in their sectoral effects have been waning over time.     

Revisiting the labor supply effect of social security earnings test: New evidence from its elimination and reinstatement in Japan

We explore the labor supply effect of the social security earnings test in Japan on those aged 65–69 years through a combined examination of the elimination of the earnings test in 1985 and its reinstatement in 2002. We present evidence showing that the effects of changes in the earnings tests on the labor supply of the elderly are not symmetric, controlling for changes in the attributes of workers and firms. The repeal of the earnings test in 1985 did affect the earnings distribution of the elderly (especially for male), while its reinstatement in 2002 did not alter the earnings distribution.     

Wages and Wage Inequality in South Africa 1994–2011: Part 2 – Inequality Measurement and Trends

We analyse the long‐term trends in wage inequality in South Africa, using household survey data. We show that the trends in household income inequality are largely driven by changes in wage inequality. Given the detailed nature of our series we show that measurement issues and breaks in the series need to be dealt with in order to draw robust conclusions from the data. Most standard inequality measures show that wage inequality has increased over the period. Nevertheless the choice of measure matters, because there are different trends in different parts of the distribution. It appears that the distribution below the median has become more compressed, while the top of the wage distribution has moved away from the median. The inequality in the labour market translates into even higher inequality in society given that high earners tend to live together with other high earners while low wage individuals often end up sharing their incomes with the unemployed. Furthermore there are many South Africans with access to no wage income. Given the trends analysed here it is not surprising that overall inequality in South Africa has not come down or has even increased since the end of apartheid.