汇率变动与经济增长关系研究新进展

关于汇率与经济增长之间的联系以及汇率与经济增长相互影响机制的研究由来已久。近30年来，开放宏观经济学和新开放宏观经济学的产生，计量经济学方法的使用使该问题的研究得到长足的发展。学者们借助于LCP模型对汇率变动的价格效应产生了新的认识；通过VAR模型、Johnansen检验、脉冲响应函数、方差分解等计量手段使有关理论得到了充分的实证检验。本文将具体介绍近几十年来理论界对该问题研究的新发展并做出简要评议。     

FDI、对外贸易对区域经济增长的影响——以湖南省为例

本文利用湖南省1985～2006年经济数据,根据协整理论和VAR模型等方法,从不同角度研究了FDI、对外贸易和经济增长之间的动态关系。实证结果表明,FDI、对外贸易与经济增长间具有长期均衡关系,且湖南省地区生产总值的增长与FDI和进口额都有双向因果关系;经济增长对进出口的波动冲击都表现出正向响应,而FDI由于地区因素的影响,作用较小。     

对外贸易与经济增长的相关性分析——以河南省为例

对外贸易对于一个国家和地区的经济增长具有先导性和拉动作用。近几年来,伴随河南省对外贸易迅速增长,河南的经济也保持了平稳快速的增长,对外贸易与经济增长的关系如何?如何有效地利用对外贸易,促进河南经济增长?文章利用计量经济学分析方法,建立回归模型,分析了河南对外贸易与经济增长的关系,提出进一步利用对外贸易拉动河南经济增长的建议。     

对外贸易与经济增长关系的实证分析——以浙江省为例

对外贸易与经济增长的关系问题一直是学术界关注的焦点。文章将以浙江省为例,从实证的角度,科学、客观地计算出二者的定量关系,得出结论,为浙江省对外贸易政策改革提供理论与实践依据。     

对外贸易与经济增长关系的实证研究——以西安市为例

文章运用协整分析和格兰杰因果关系检验的方法,对陕西省西安市1987—2009年对外贸易与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明,西安市对外贸易与经济增长之间存在长期稳定的关系,对外贸易是经济增长的原因,而经济增长并不是对外贸易的原因,即西安市对外贸易与经济增长之间仅存在单向因果关系。     

教育投资与经济增长的关系——以湖南省数据为例

教育是培养人才的重要方式,本文用Eviews软件分析了湖南省1999-2009年这十年间的财政性教育投资与国内生产总值GDP两者之间的关系。实证分析表明,教育投资与经济增长两者之间具有相互促进作用,即经济增长1个百分点会带来教育投资增加0.9个百分点。教育投资增长1个百分点,会带来经济增长1.09个百分点。因此,湖南省在未来经济发展过程中应加大对教育投资,调整教育结构,合理分配教育资源,带动不同地市经济平衡快速发展。     

对外贸易与经济增长关系的实证研究——以山东省,广东省为例

改革开放以来,山东省、广东省的经济和对外贸易得到快速增长,对外贸易对经济增长是否起到促进作用？本文通过选取1978-2009年的有关数据建立VAR模型,实证分析两省对外贸易对经济增长的影响作用。结果表明：广东省的对外贸易是经济增长的格兰杰原因,表明通过资本积累促进经济增长;而山东省的对外贸易不是其经济增长的格兰杰原因。     

内陆小省的对外贸易与经济增长——以宁夏回族自治区为例

文章借鉴从国家的角度分析贸易与增长的方法,以宁夏回族自治区作为分析的对象,通过对经济增长与对外贸易的协整分析,建立误差修正模型,对宁夏回族自治区--一个内陆小省的对外贸易与经济增长问题进行分析,探讨宁夏应如何发展外向型经济.     

FDI、对外贸易与经济增长的协整性研究——以山东省为例

关于利用外资、进出口贸易与经济增长关系的研究一直以来备受关注,但近年来的研究大多致力于两者间关系的独立性研究,其结果往往会使得理论与实证研究的解释力受到影响。对于多个同阶序列变量之间是否存在长期稳定的均衡关系的研究,协整理论具有重要的应用,其既可充分利用信息资源,还有效避免了“伪回归”问题。另外鉴于不同区域问经济发展模式、发展水平的差异性,各经济要素之间的关系也不尽相同,本文采用山东省1984～2007年间24年的统计数据,对该省的外商直接投资、进出口贸易与经济增长之间的相互关系进行了协整性检验和误差修正模型分析,总结得到有关结论：山东省利用外资、进出口贸易与其经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,但具有区别于其他地区的自身特点。最后,针对山东经济的协调发展提出了若干政策建议。     

汇率变动、研发投资与经济增长

关于汇率对经济增长的影响及影响机制研究由来已久,汇率变动可以通过价格效应、利率效应以及财富效应来影响经济增长。除此之外,汇率变动还可以通过研发投资效应影响经济增长：汇率升值将使国内企业的研发投资下降,研发投资的下降使得企业生产的边际成本增加,从而带来国内市场的产出下降以及产品价格的上升,不利于本国经济增长。因此,对于当前正处于升值通道的人民币汇率,如何避免过度升值,最大程度降低升值的负面影响,显得尤其重要。     

China's economic growth and its real exchange rate

The shocks that underlie China's comparatively rapid growth include gains in productivity, factor accumulation and policy reforms that increase allocative efficiency. The well-known Balassa–Samuelson hypothesis links productivity growth in tradable industries with real appreciations. Yet it relies heavily on the law of one price applying for tradable goods, against which there is now considerable evidence. In its absence, other growth shocks also affect the real exchange rate by influencing relative supply or demand for home product varieties. This paper investigates the pre-conditions for the Balassa–Samuelson hypothesis to predict a real appreciation in the Chinese case. It then quantifies the links between all growth shocks and the Chinese real exchange rate using a dynamic model of the global economy with open capital accounts and full demographic underpinnings to labor supply. The results suggest that financial capital inflows most affect the real exchange rate in the short term, while differential productivity is strong in the medium term. Contrary to expectation, in the long term demographic forces prove to be weak relative to changes in the skill composition of the labor force, which enhances services sector performance and depreciates the real exchange rate.     

Real exchange rate and exchange rate policy in Hungary

Five real exchange rate indicators are computed to assess the international competitiveness of Hungarian industry. These indicators are explained in econometric equations by employment, unemployment, productivity, interest spread and real producer wage. Causality tests reveal that external performance has an impact on real exchange rates, and contributes to explaining real exchange rates. There is very limited scope for policy intervention to constrain the negative effects of capital inflows without incurring other costs.     

Managing real exchange rate for economic growth: Empirical evidences from developing countries

Abstract

This article analyses macroeconomic policies capable of influencing the long-run real exchange rate (RER). In this vein, it identifies economic policy tools that can devalue RER, covering a theoretical issue neglected by the economic literature, which argues that competitive exchange rate enhances growth. After discussing the “Trilemma,” we identify those variables that could affect RER without constraining monetary policy or exchange rate regime choice. In what follows, we model the probability of achieving an undervalued (small or large) RER for a sample of 14 developing countries from 1980 to 2010 (30?years) by applying econometric techniques for discrete choice and censored data. Afterwards, we compare the results for Latin American nations with Asian ones. They suggest that competitive exchange rate requires different approaches depending on the region. Moreover, Latin American countries need to take on additional policies so that interventions in the foreign exchange market become effective.     

The impact of exchange rate volatility on commodity trade between the US and Thailand

The impact of exchange rate volatility on trade flows continues to occupy the international finance literature. More recent studies have deviated from the traditional approach of using aggregate trade flows and have employed trade data at commodity level. This study investigates the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on the trade flows of 118 US exporting industries to Thailand and 41 US importing industries from Thailand. We find that exchange rate uncertainty has short-run effects on the trade flows of most industries. In the long-run, the main determinants of the trade flows are the level of economic activity in both countries.     

Estimating an equilibrium exchange rate for the dollar and other key currencies

In this paper, we adapt the concept of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates ‘FEER’ in a complete model approach. We use it to determine the likely paths of the Dollar and other key currencies. The FEER is the (real) exchange rate that is consistent with internal balance and sustainable external balances. Here we examine the composition of a Dollar adjustment and hence the extent to which a FEER (for the US) depends on factors or rigidities elsewhere in the world, as well as at home. We find, the US still needs to accept an adjustment in her real exchange rate if the increase in her foreign liabilities is to come to an end. However, counterpart adjustments also have to be made in Canada, Mexico, and some Asian economies if this policy is to be successful. We also show that productivity growth differentials may act as a substitute for depreciation, and this provides an explanation for the failure of the dollar to depreciate in the 1990s.     

拉丁美洲1990年代经济改革特点--以墨西哥经济改革为例

拉丁美洲在20世纪90年代前后开始的全面经济改革,新自由主义属性显著。在这一过程中,墨西哥的新自由经济改革颇具代表性。因此,以墨西哥的加工贸易和国有企业私有化为例,分析拉丁美洲经济改革中的特点以及出现的问题。     

Interest rate reforms,financial deepening and economic growth in Tanzania: a dynamic linkage

In this paper we examine the dynamic relationship between interest rate reforms and economic growth in Tanzania using two tests. In the first test, we examine the impact of interest rate reforms on financial deepening using a financial deepening model. In the second test, we examine whether the financial deepening, which results from interest rate reforms, Granger‐causes economic growth – using a trivariate model. The empirical findings of our results reveal that there is a significant positive relationship between interest rate reforms and economic growth in Tanzania. However, the results fail to find any support for finance‐led growth.     

Empirical study on the influence of RMB exchange rate misalignment on China’s export

Using data from 1978–2005, this paper estimates RMB equilibrium exchange rate and misalignment respectively, and uses Engle-Granger (E-G) two-step method, error correction model to analyze the influence of RMB exchange rate misalignment on China’s export. Because China is the economic transitional country with the character of dualistic economic structure, this paper introduces a control variant into the model which is the gap between agriculture and industry contribution to GDP. Conclusion shows that this model is more credible and stable. There is an obvious cointegration between China’s export and RMB exchange rate misalignment, real effective exchange rate, domestic GDP and foreign weighted average GDP. RMB exchange rate misalignment has an obvious negative influence on China’s export, but it has self-corrected dynamic mechanism. Then using binary Logit model, this paper concludes that the bigger RMB underestimated misalignment is, the bigger net export probability is, which is good for export. The bigger RMB overestimated misalignment is, the smaller net export probability is, which is bad for export.      

Oil prices and the real exchange rate in Iran: an ARDL bounds testing approach

This article examines the impact of oil prices on the real exchange rate in Iran during the 1961–2014 period using the autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration as the estimation method. We find that higher oil prices lead to appreciation of the real exchange rate. The results reveal that oil prices have both short-run and long-run effects on the real exchange rate.     

中国经济增长的特征、可持续性与潜在增长率估算:一个综述

在本文通过对中国经济增长的表现特征、可持续性和潜在增长率估算三方面的理论综述,进一步论述了中国经济增长的发展脉络,并在此基础上提出研究中国经济增长理论尚需改进的空间.