Geography,geopolitics, and policy in the performance of transition economies

The economic performance of the transition economies as of 2015 is well explained by three variables: (1) years of membership in the EU; (2) physical distance from the heart of the EU economy, taken to be Dusseldorf; and (3) annual revenues from oil and gas production, reflecting natural resource deposits. These three factors account for around 86 percent of the variation in per capita income across the 28 transition economies, and reflect the interplay of domestic policy, geopolitics, geography and natural resources.     

A new context for managing overseas direct investment by Chinese state-owned enterprises

Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and their overseas direct investment (ODI) have played an important role in China’s economic development. But the rapid expansion of SOE-dominated ODI has also raised concerns, including about state capitalism and the need for competitive neutrality. This paper considers China’s strategy for managing ODI by its SOEs given a changing context. On the one hand, the Chinese economy is rapidly growing and will soon become the largest economy in the world. China’s role in the world, as well as its global responsibility, is therefore changing. China needs to establish a win-win and harmonious relationship with the rest of the world, and ODI has a role to play in this. On the other hand, China’s growth model is shifting to become greener, more balanced, and innovation-driven. China’s changing international role and the changing growth model have created new imperatives for, and constraints on, ODI by SOEs and reforms to SOEs. This paper aims to examine ODI by Chinese SOEs from the two dimensions of China’s changing role and growth model. It discusses strategies for better managing ODI by Chinese SOEs in the new context that is emerging.     

Firm ownership,industrial structure,and regional innovation performance in China's provinces

This paper uses panel data between 2000 and 2010 to explore how firm ownership and regional industrial structures contribute to regional innovation performance in Chinese provinces. Specifically, we explore how the extent of specialisation and diversification in regional industrial structures at the province level fosters both Marshall–Arrow–Romer and Jacobs spillovers, as well as how foreign and state ownership influence regional innovation. We find: (i) China's regional innovation systems benefit from Jacobs but not MAR externalities, with the former spurring higher quality innovation in the form of increased invention patenting; (ii) state-owned enterprises and foreign-invested enterprises advance local innovation, with the latter again fostering higher quality innovation; and (iii) a convergence towards a combination of low specialisation and high diversity in provincial industrial structure is taking place between China's more developed inland coastal provinces and less developed inland provinces. Implications and suggestions for policy-making and future research are discussed.     

Formal and real ownership structure of the Polish economy: state-owned versus state-controlled enterprises

This article analyses the difference between the state’s formal and real shares in the Polish economy. We identify two basic types of corporate control exercised by the state over enterprises through ownership (in the case of majority ownership) and non-ownership tools (in the case of minority ownership). Consequently, we distinguish between two types of state enterprises: state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and state-controlled enterprises (SCEs). In post-communist economies, SCEs mainly originate from so-called reluctant privatisation, in which the transfer of ownership rights takes place without the appropriate transfer of control rights. We discuss the tools of non-ownership control used by the state. Our estimates of the real share of state enterprises in the Polish economy (which include both SOEs and SCEs) show that it is almost two times higher than the formal share (only SOEs). The share of state enterprises is also highest in the group of Poland’s largest and most important firms. We conclude that the real importance of state enterprises in the Polish economy is much higher than might be expected if only the formal share of state ownership is taken into account.     

中国经济改革:背景、机制与挑战

经过三十余年的经济改革,中国的经济取得了巨大的进步,中国这条巨龙也正在逐渐回归到她在世界经济中应有的位置。这种经济改革是如何成功的?本文认为,承接于特定的历史经济背景,中国经济中三类主要的行为主体(中央、地方、民众)根据自身的条件进行了事实上的互动式的协调分工,各自对既有的约束条件进行突破,并在互动演进的发展过程中逐步建立了新的规则,这些规则所确立的激励与约束极大地调动了各参与主体的积极性,实现了从事必躬亲到各司其职的职能转换。正是在这些过程中,中国经济逐渐得到发展并获得前所未有的成就。但我们同时强调,在经济改革的过程中,也必须认清体制的不足,积极应对新的挑战。     

Economic performance of state‐owned enterprises under the Chinese Communist Party's supervision: Some reflection on China's economic reform

This study examines the economic behaviour of state‐owned enterprises in China with special emphasis on the role of the state's sole party as either an agent (management) or supervisor in the enterprises. It is found that with the construction of an incentive‐compatible compensation design and the Chinese Communist Party orchestrating an appropriate objective guideline for its members to follow, state or socialist capitalism could still achieve efficient economic performance. If party members did not behave prudently or pursued their personal interests instead of the state's overall welfare, there could be grave consequences, including corruption, nepotism or even the breakdown of the system.     

中国经济转型绩效分析:1992—2006

本文从经济转型实现程度的视角出发,设计指标体系,采用指标区间评分,纵向时间序列分析的方法来评价中国经济转型绩效.研究结果显示,在1992-2006这一期间,中国经济转型绩效是优异的,且转型已进入了后期阶段.但转型的基础并不稳固,今后仍充满了不确定性与风险,因此需要在目前转型基础上,着重解决失衡问题,全面推动其它层次的转型.     

“德隆系”失败原因研究综述

在经济转型时期的中国,许多企业在成长的过程中,由于宏观层面上受到经济周期波动的影响,或者由于微观层面上自身不能适应经济发展对产业结构升级的要求,或者由于违规经营等原因而出现了财务危机,德隆系是其中最典型的案例。德隆系的成功曾经是学界津津乐道的奇迹,德隆系后来的失败又激起了学者的许多反思,许多学者对德隆系的成败进行了剖析。本文对德隆系成功与失败的原因研究进行了综述,并指出这些研究具有一定的合理性,具有一定的理论价值,但忽视了德隆系成败理论框架建立的基础——中国经济转型。     

Fundamentals, the exchange rate and prospects for the current and future EU enlargements: evidence from Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Turkey

We analyze the link between macroeconomic fundamentals and exchange rate dynamics in two new and two potential EU member states: Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, and Turkey. Given the different institutional settings of the exchange rate market in the countries of interest, we follow two different modelling strategies. For Romania and Turkey, we evaluate possible exchange rate misalignments based on a monetary model of exchange rate determination. In the case of Bulgaria and Croatia, with currency board and narrow-band peg arrangements against the euro, we discuss possible exit strategies and quantitatively assess the effects of the peg arrangements by means of simulation.

Chinese lessons: state-owned enterprises and the regulation of foreign investment in Canada

A recent influx of Asian investment is changing the character of the Canadian oil and gas industry and reviving old debates on the regulation of foreign investment. Particular attention has been placed on investment by state-owned enterprises (SOEs), driven in part by public suspicion about investment from China, which has been the largest source of SOE capital flows to Canada. Recent amendments to the Investment Canada Act have made SOE investment more difficult and have raised questions about the country’s attractiveness as an investment destination. This paper makes the case for non-discrimination of SOEs in the investment review process. In the context of a policy framework that is fundamentally supportive of inward foreign direct investment (FDI), the Canadian government does not require a set of redundant measures to protect against the relatively low risk of undesirable investment.     

论中国经济转型时期股票市场的定位--兼评"股市边缘论"

2001年以来的"股市困境"引起了人们的广泛关注,甚至有人提出了"股市边缘论".本文从企业融资决策以及金融机构与金融市场对比的视角出发,借鉴国际经验,对中国经济转型时期股票市场的定位问题进行了分析,我们认为股票市场在金融体系和融资结构中应该居于次要地位,银行主导型金融体系是中国的合适选择.     

The economic performance of state-owned enterprises in Central and Eastern Europe

This article explores the economic performance of state ownership in the largest non-financial enterprises operating in 13 post-socialist Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries over the period 2007–2013. The largest state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are selected based on the ‘Coface – 500 Top Companies in CEE’ list in 2013. Of these 500 enterprises, 69 were identified as state-owned. All originated in the socialist period. The majority of them are from Poland and Ukraine. SOEs hold a dominant position in energy supply, the oil and gas sector, and transport. We find that the persistence of state ownership in post-socialist countries is caused by incomplete privatisation and the presence of SOEs within strategic sectors. The economic performance of the largest state-owned companies is, on average, comparable to their private counterparts.     

The unbalanced growth hypothesis and the role of the state: The case of China's state-owned enterprises

Albert Hirschman's unbalanced growth hypothesis suggests that a developing economy can promote economic growth by initially investing in industries with high backward and forward linkages. In the case of Chinese economic policy today, one application would be the continued presence of the state in high-linkage sectors and the strategic withdrawal of the state from low-linkage sectors. The evidence shows that while the degree of linkage plays an important role in generating economic growth in China, province-specific withdrawal strategies for the state sector have no effect on economic growth.     

深化东北地区国有企业改革研究

国有企业改革是振兴东北地区经济的重中之重,需要正本清源,从转换机制上寻求突破口--最终形成法律意义的产权制度是国有企业改革的核心问题;构筑分权制衡的规范的法人治理结构是国有企业改革的关键;抓住战略机遇期,以科技创新培育具备国际竞争力的大企业为切入点是企业取胜市场的关键.     

重大工程中国有企业主导整合实现产业技术追赶机制

依托重大工程,我国在部分领域实现了产业技术追赶.以往研究分别强调政府或市场的作用,本文则从整合视角出发,以中广核为对象开展纵向单案例研究,深入分析了在重大工程中承担政治职能的特殊市场主体——国有企业在主导产业链整合以实现产业技术追赶的作用机制.研究发现:①国有企业受政府意图和市场需求的双重驱动,依托重大工程扮演了产业链整合的主导者角色;②"资源-网络位置-工程技术能力"三者交互发展共同构成国有企业主导产业整合的基础;③国企主导整合的方式经历了从契约规制为主,到平台治理为主的阶段演进,并在此过程中实现了企业自身能力发展及产业技术赶超的双重目标.本文为更好发挥国企引领作用提供借鉴.     

Does the mixed-ownership reform improve the productivity of state-owned enterprises? Evidence from companies listed in Chinese stock

The Chinese government initiated a new round of state-owned enterprise (SOE) reform in 2015 to improve SOE's performance with a focus on introducing multiple ownership shareholders and strategic partners, known as the mixed-ownership reform (MOR). This paper examines the policy effectiveness of the current MOR, an ongoing quasi-experiment, for listed SOEs’ productivity from 2011 to 2019 using a time-varying difference-in-difference (DID) approach. Overall, the total factor productivity (TFP) of SOEs selected as pilots by the government improved significantly by 14.57% after the reform compared to other SOEs, providing evidence for the positive role of the current MOR. This positive impact is prolonged and tends to increase in the post-reform years. A series of robustness checks show that our empirical specification satisfies the basic assumptions of DID and our findings are robust. By comparing the two reform strategies in the MOR, we find that the restructuring and reorganization plan is the primary channel driving TFP growth, showing a 0.4% improvement after the reform, rather than the employee stock ownership plan. We also investigate the impact of MOR on other financial and non-financial indicators, but we only find a significant increase in the profitability of SOEs’ assets.     

Recent rural growth in China: the performance of the rural small-scale enterprises, 1980–86

This article focuses on the evaluation of the process of growth in rural China since the 1978 rural economic reforms. By dividing the rural economy into two sectors: the agricultural sector and the RSE (rural small scale enterprises) sector, it analyses the relative contributions of labour, capital and other factors. Two major findings are that the RSE sector has its marginal labour productivity double that of the agricultural sector over 1980–86 and the high-income regions (mainly the coastal provinces open to world exports) exhibited a positive role of increasing returns to scale. This trend lends strong support to the market-based incentives offered by the openness in free trade which influenced the coastal provinces of the RSE sector.     

China's transition to markets: market-preserving federalism,chinese style

This paper studies the relationship between decentralization and the success of reform in China. We argue that a particular form of decentralization—called market-preserving federalism Chinese style—provides the critical foundations for market success. China's form of decentralization has served the critical purpose of creating markets at a time when political resistance to economic reform remained strong and when the durability of the reforms was important. Nonetheless, federalism, Chinese style, lacks some national public goods, and the new system needs to be institutionalized. We also highlight some parallels between the United States under the Articles of Confederation (1781-1787) and those of modern China.