从"多哈回合"中止看多边贸易体制的危机

2006年7月多哈回合谈判被无限期中止,多边贸易体制受到重大挫折.多边贸易体制面临的重大危机主要由其自身体内在缺陷和国际经济环境的外部因素共同构成,要挽救多边贸易体制,不仅需要对多边贸易体制自身机制进行改革和完善,也需要世界各国的共同努力,改善全球经济失衡状态,抑制贸易保护主义,维护多边贸易体制和货币体制对区域协定的管理.     

对"区域集团对多边贸易体制影响"的逆向思维--探讨多边贸易体制的自身问题

区域经济一体化的发展对以WTO为代表的多边贸易体制有双重影响,它既可以是多边贸易体制的垫脚石也能成为其发展的绊脚石。由于区域集团是在多边贸易体制的大框架下迅速发展起来的,因此本文从多边贸易体制对区域集团管理的角度来探讨区域性安排的合理性、完善性以及在这种管理下区域集团对多边贸易体制的影响。在区域性集团和多边贸易体制共存的环境中,入世后的中国也正积极地融入到区域性合作的大趋势中。     

区域经济一体化对多边贸易体制的影响

区域经济一体化在促进国际贸易发展的同时,也对多边贸易体制产生了一定的冲击和挑战.本文分析了区域经济一体化对多边贸易体制的正面和负面影响,并对如何协调两者的发展进行了探讨.     

WTO基本原则与多边环境公约的冲突与协调

目前,国际社会已签署了约200多个多边环境公约（Multilateral Environmental Agreements,以下称MEAs）其中有一些重要的多边环境公约规定了贸易条款,这类以保护环境为目的的贸易规定与以自由为宗旨的多边贸易体制的规定往往有不同侧重,使得多边环境公约与多边贸易体制潜藏着冲突的机制。随着贸易自由化程度的日益提高和环境问题的日益严重,多边公约中会增加对贸易限制的使用,多边贸易体制和多边环境公约的冲突在不久的将来会更加突出,二者之间的关系成为亟待解决的问题。     

西方经济地理学区域研究的新视角--论"新区域主义"的兴起

20世纪80年代以业，区域经济研究在西方经济地理学界迅速复兴，产生了被称为“新区域主义”的一系列理论和政策导向。文章介绍了“新区域主义”出现的背景，论述其特点及理论渊源，分析了“新区域主义”的发展脉络与新动向和政策导向，最后评述了“新区域主义”的理论与实践意义，讨论了其存在的问题。     

全球贸易治理中多边主义、诸边主义和大区域主义的比较与选择

在世界贸易组织多边谈判进展缓慢的背景下,全球贸易治理出现了大区域主义和诸边主义流行的趋势。大区域主义是欧美国家为占据新的"规则优势"、掌控全球贸易治理主导权而极力推行的,它并不是多边贸易体系的补充,而是消极的侵蚀。我国已成为世界贸易第一大国,维护WTO多边主义是我国的首要选择。但挽救WTO危机并建立和谐的全球贸易体系是一个长期过程。从目前的实际情况看,我国应在WTO体系内大力推进诸边主义,以实现挽救危机和推进规则制定的目的。     

关于优惠贸易安排发展的"动态"时间路径分析

20世纪90年代以来,全球出现了第二次优惠贸易自由化浪潮,各种区域贸易安排蜂拥而起,引起了理论界的普遍关注.众多学者对优惠贸易安排对多边贸易自由化的影响,即"动态"时间路径问题,进行了理论探讨.文章把众多经济学者对此问题的理论探讨进行了系统性归纳,以期对我国参与区域贸易自由化进程以及解决由优惠贸易安排产生的系列问题提供参考.     

"新区域主义"与我国的区域协调发展

章总结了20世纪90年代出现的“新区域主义”的主要特点：①关注区域特性,研究方法注重系统分析与实地调研;②直面区域和城市发展中的各种社会问题;③综合平衡社会公平、环境保护、经济增长的发展目标;④重视物质规划以及不同层次物质规划与社会、经济发展规划之间的密切配合,在此基础上,进一步分析了“新区域主义”对我国区域协调发展研究方法、研究对象、发展目标及区域规划方面的启示,并探讨了区域协调发展的组织实施。     

论双边FTA与WTO协定的关系

WTO协定对双边FTA等区域贸易协定的缔结作了许多原则规定。为了保证双边FTA与WTO规则相一致,WTO还加强了对双边FTA等区域贸易协定的审议和监察。双边FTA虽然与WTO多边贸易体制有不同之处,但二者基本精神是一致的:二者所体现的原则和所产生的经济效应基本一致,双边FTA有利于促进WTO所主张的全球贸易自由化的实现,而且,双边FTA终将融入WTO多边贸易体制。     

多边环境协定与WTO多边贸易体制的冲突与协调

多边环境协定与WTO多边贸易体制的矛盾和冲突是国际社会关注的热点问题。本文对该矛盾产生的根源做出了理论上和实践中的分析，阐述了二者在实体规则和争端解决上的冲突表现，并结合国际实践就解决对策提出了作者的见解和。     

Regionalism and Multilateral Trade Liberalization with Asymmetric Countries

The paper examines the impact of regionalism on the process of multilateral trade liberalization when countries are asymmetric. The author uses a three‐country, three‐good, competing exporters model, with countries being symmetric in everything but their discount factors. The equilibrium regional agreement is found to be a customs union between a patient and an impatient country and that the impact of regionalism depends on the discount factors. The impact of regionalism on multilateral trade liberalization depends critically on which countries engage in regionalism.     

Regional versus Multilateral Trade Liberalization,Environmental Taxation,and Welfare

The paper considers trade between identical countries with imperfectly competitive markets, and compares the impacts of regional and multilateral tariff reduction on strategic environmental taxation and welfare. While both forms of trade liberalization increase production and consumption in tariff‐reducing countries, regionalism also reduces production in a non‐participating country and may decrease its consumption. Consequently, regionalism and multilateralism change pollution tax and welfare in the tariff‐reducing countries in similar ways when pollution is local, but in dissimilar ways for global pollution. When pollution is global, regionalism is likely to be preferred to multilateralism for the establishment of free trade among countries.     

国际经济格局变动中的区域主义发展新趋势

本文研究指出全球化再造过程中新区域主义的特点和发展趋势,以及由此引发的学术界研究方法的巨大变革和对世界经济格局变动的影响,通过对美墨加协定、下一代欧盟复苏计划、东亚一体化RCEP协定的研究,论证了区域主义和全球化之间的关系,研究RTA本身与WTO是否一致,梳理并分析区域贸易协定是全球自由贸易的绊脚石还是垫脚石的争论,得出北美和欧盟的区域主义是全球化的“绊脚石”,更多是替代作用且具有防御性,而东亚的区域主义则是全球化的“垫脚石”,发挥互补作用且具有开拓性,RCEP在内容上是WTO的升级版,在范围上是WTO的降级版,中国未来在WTO改革、全球治理和人类命运共同体构建方面将担负更大的使命,通过新区域主义的形式推进全球化治理与改革,从“外围”走向“中心”。     

Human Capital,Technology, and Specialization: A Comparison of Developed and Developing Countries

GDP GDP function framework, and apply it to panel data. We find that factor supplies and openness to trade are important factors influencing the structure of production, but we also uncover interesting differences in results across output sectors and groups of countries. In addition, we find evidence that Hicks-neutral technological differences do not affect specialization. Finally, our results on the effect of openness highlight the sources of conflicts between developed and developing countries in multilateral trade negotiations. Received April 18, 2000; revised version received January 8, 2001     

从"201钢铁案"看美国贸易政策中的单边主义

布什政府上台以来。从优先考虑国内政治因素出发。通过“201条款”、“301条款”等单边主义做法对贸易对方国进行经济制裁。背离了WTO的贸易政策，对多边贸易体系和贸易自由化趋势造成严重损害，暴露了美国的经济霸权。     

Does ‘New Regionalism Theory’ Explain the Complementary Role of Foreign Direct Investment and Trade Activity in the Central and Eastern European Region? The Case of Bulgaria

In this paper we attempt to contribute to the ongoing debate about new and old regionalism. First, we focus on the presentation of regional initiatives in the Central & East European (CEE) region and on specific motives behind Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and trade expansion in CEE countries. Then, through empirical research and the analysis of regional initiatives we found that FDI and trade are complementary to each other, while FDI is a characteristic of new regionalism signifying deeper integration. On the other hand, geographical proximity still plays an important role in trade and investment suggesting that elements from both old and new regionalism are apparent in the CEE region. Only a small number of advanced countries participate in a few regional initiatives. However, membership in regional initiatives - if isolated - does not directly and/or simultaneously imply deep integration (new regionalism).     

Make Trade Not War?

This paper analyses theoretically and empirically the relationship between military conflicts and trade. We show that the conventional wisdom that trade promotes peace is only partially true even in a model where trade is economically beneficial, military conflicts reduce trade, and leaders are rational. When war can occur because of the presence of asymmetric information, the probability of escalation is lower for countries that trade more bilaterally because of the opportunity cost associated with the loss of trade gains. However, countries more open to global trade have a higher probability of war because multilateral trade openness decreases bilateral dependence to any given country and the cost of a bilateral conflict. We test our predictions on a large data set of military conflicts on the 1950–2000 period. Using different strategies to solve the endogeneity issues, including instrumental variables, we find robust evidence for the contrasting effects of bilateral and multilateral trade openness. For proximate countries, we find that trade has had a surprisingly large effect on their probability of military conflict.     

后国际经济危机时期贸易争端的新特点与广东应对策略

在国际金融危机的影响下，全球不确定经贸环境助长了新贸易保护主义。贸易争端增多，表现为实施主体的全球性和区域性，保护目的多样性和易变性，保护手段复杂多样化，保护方式货币化与金融化，政策更加显性和柔性等特点。对外贸依存度比较高的广东遭遇的贸易摩擦量占全国三分之一多，其危害严重，必须采取有效解决对策。短期对策主要有：借用WTO和双边机制维护出口企业合法权益：针对不同争端采取分类应对策略；构建规避贸易争端的防范体系和预警机制等。长期对策主要是转变广东外经贸增长方式，提升利用外资质量，加强实施“走出去”战略，提升参与区域经济合作水平等。     

Beyond the income effect of international trade on ethnic wars in Africa

We use detailed information on the location of agricultural and mining production to approximate international trade for different ethnic groups in order to study its impact on ethnic conflicts in Africa between 1993 and 2010. The goal is to go beyond the income effects of trade to study the residual effects of globalization on conflicts. We find that once we control for income but also for a wide variety of different factors in conflicts (using political variables and fixed effects), the international trade by ethnic groups has a pacific impact on conflicts. While this peaceful impact of trade is mainly found in the trade in agricultural products, it does not have a significant impact on the international trade in mining products. Finally, we propose an original two-step analysis showing that exports significantly reduce conflicts by affecting time-varying national characteristics. We interpret this result as an indication that globalization in Africa has participated in the formation of new national identities with peaceful effects between ethnic groups.