我国货币供给对经济增长、物价水平的实证研究

货币政策是我国宏观经济政策的重要组成部分,因此作为货币政策中介指标的货币供应量必然会影响宏观经济的运行。一般认为,货币供应在短期内对宏观经济有重要影响,但长期影响则看法不一。本文以1993-2010年各变量数据进行回归,总结货币供给对经济增长和物价水平的影响,提出政策建议。     

我国货币供应量与经济增长的关系分析

本文根据1990年到2005年的统计数据,利用ECM模型分析,认为我国的货币供应量与经济增长存在线性正相关关系,我国货币供应与经济增长之间具有动态调整机制,非均衡误差项的存在保证货币供应与经济增长之间均衡关系的自动实现,相关结论为制定有助于经济稳定增长的货币政策提供依据。     

促进经济增长的结构性政策

一、促进经济增长的政策有三个层次之分从传导机制看 ,促进经济增长的政策有三个层次 :一是通常所说的宏观经济政策 ,主要是扩张总需求的货币和财政政策。应用的依据是 ,当经济的实际增长率低于由生产要素及其生产率所决定的潜在增长率时 ,实施扩张性的货币和财政政策 ,提高生产能力利用率和降低失业率 ,缩小实际增长率与潜在增长率的差距 (相应地 ,当实际增长率高于潜在增长率 ,引发通货膨胀时 ,就实施紧缩性的货币和财政政策 )。二是结构性政策。结构性政策有多方面的内容 ,比如 ,调节生产要素在不同生产率的产业之间、在高增长部门与低增…     

索洛经济增长模型理论概述

索洛增长模型认为经济增长存在趋同现象,随着人均资本的增加,人均GDP增长率逐渐减少并趋于零,但是技术的进步可以使一个经济体保持长久的、稳定的GDP增长率。同时,索洛经济增长模型为经济增长贡献率研究提供了思路和方法。学习索洛增长模型对日后分析经济增长方面的课题具有重要作用。     

对我国就业增长与经济增长关系的思索

目前,我国的就业增长与经济增长并没有呈现一致性。这并不完全是经济增长的带动作用减弱,而是影响就业增长其他因素的负效应抵消了经济增长对就业增长的部分贡献,也有经济体制改革、技术进步、宏观政策等因素。应采取增加劳务输出和扩大劳动密集型产品在对外贸易中的比重、大力发展第三产业、调整宏观经济政策的单纯GDP取向、完善劳动力市场等措施,实现经济与就业一致性增长。     

基于内生经济增长模型的财政政策取向研究

巴罗通过内生经济增长理论证实了财政政策变量能够为静态经济增长提供保障机制。通过引入非扭曲性税收,扩展了贝罗的内生经济增长模型,探讨财政支出政策和税收政策同时作用下经济增长率的变化方向及其政策含义,并提出我国经济保持长期稳定增长应选择的财政政策。     

我国货币供应量与经济增长的相关性探讨

货币供应量与经济增长之间的关系一直是学术界争论的焦点之一,但是,在这个问题上,各国政府却毫无异议地认为货币供应量与经济增长之间有明显的关系,调节经济增长也就成为各国中央银行货币政策目标之一。本文利用回归分析,就我国货币供应量与经济增长之间的关系进行实证分析,阐明自己的观点。     

我国经济增长和通货膨胀的货币因素实证分析

本文选用1996~2012年相关经济数据,基于Granger因果检验、VAR模型脉冲响应分析,对经济增长、通货膨胀与货币供给之间的关系进行实证分析。结果表明,短期内货币供给会刺激经济增长,同时经济增长也会加速货币供给,但长期内货币供给引起通货膨胀的效应要远高于对经济的促进作用。因此,政府在制定经济增长目标的同时,应合理调控货币供应,控制物价上涨,使三者达到最优均衡。     

谈经济政策、汇率变动、经济增长对通货膨胀的影响

本文采用协整和误差修正模型对经济政策、汇率变动和经济增长对通货膨胀的影响进行了实证研究,结果表明财政支出的增加没有引起通货膨胀,广义货币供给量对通货膨胀的影响由负逐渐转为正,说明货币供给量对通货膨胀的正向影响存在较长的时滞,提高利率可以在短期内缓解物价上升的压力,经济增长通常伴随着一定程度的通货膨胀,人民币实际有效汇率上升(即人民币升值)可以起到控制物价上涨的作用。     

货币增长对构成CPI各成分的影响分析

关于通货膨胀预期、货币增长与CPI之间的关系有许多详细的研究，而对构成CPI个微观层面的研究并不多见，本文运用2004-2012年货币增长与构成CPI各成分月度增长数据，建立VAR模型对通膨预期、货币增长与构成CPI各成分之间的关系进行研究，得出预期、货币增长对不同成分的影响是不同的并且货币的影响具有不同的时滞性。     

An evolutionary growth model with banking activity

In this paper, we propose an evolutionary growth model in which an innovative production sector interacts with a simplified banking sector. We explore the relationships between long-term sources of growth (technological change) and short-term/mid-term factors (such as price dynamics and interest rates). The model suggests new explanations for the endogenous emergence of sharp crises with profound effects in the long run. An interesting aspect of the model is that these crises appear in a strictly private economy, in which everything produced is sold, and there are neither government distortions nor exogenous shocks. The crises emerge from the interactions between uneven innovation rates and market reactivity. In fact, high reactivity in financial markets can amplify the (initially small) effects of innovative competition, leading to a destabilization of economic growth. Drawing on the results of the model we suggest some policy implications.     

Neoclassical growth model with two fixed delays

“Delay” has been considered as one of destabilizing factors in economic dynamics for a long time. Dynamic macroeconomics is concerned with explaining growth and fluctuations. This paper shows how various dynamics involving cyclic fluctuations can emerge in the standard neoclassical growth model when two distinct delays, a delay in production and a delay in depreciation, are explicitly taken into account. We first confirm that the production delay has a stabilizing effect and the depreciation delay has a destabilizing effect in a one‐delay model. We then determine the stability switching curve analytically in the two delay model. It is shown that cyclic fluctuations emerge via Hopf bifurcation when stability is lost. It is also found that stability loss and gain repeatedly occur. Numerical examples verify the theoretical results when the Cobb‐Douglas production function is adopted.     

Knowledge spillover entrepreneurship in an endogenous growth model

We present a model that separates entrepreneurship from profit-motivated corporate R&D aimed at improving existing production processes. Our model embeds the core idea of the knowledge spillover theory of entrepreneurship in established knowledge-based growth models by enriching their knowledge spillover structure. Introducing knowledge spillovers drives a wedge between the optimal and market allocation of resources between new knowledge creation and commercialization. We show the first best allocation depends exclusively on the relative strength of knowledge spillovers between them and derive propositions to guide policy that can bring the market equilibrium closer to this optimum.     

Building an integrative model of small business growth

The purpose of this article is to develop an integrative model of small business growth that is both broad in scope and parsimonious in nature. Such a “big picture” model provides an opportunity (1) to gauge how much we really know about small business growth, when we simultaneously consider the constructs from the dominant perspectives, (2) to assess the contribution of each of these perspectives, (3) to examine the indirect effects that some constructs from one perspective might have on small business growth through constructs from another perspective, and (4) to consider different levels of analysis. Based on an analysis of data from 413 small businesses, we derive a set of propositions that suggest how entrepreneurial orientation, environmental characteristics, firm resources, and managers’ personal attitudes directly and/or indirectly influence the growth of small businesses.      

Sudden change in a model of small firm growth

A catastrophe theory model of small firm growth allows for an abrupt change in small firm size. The model permits only smooth changes in the endogenous independent variables, turnover and profitability, yet allows sudden changes in the level of assets, the size variable. But not all growth paths suggested by the mathematics are likely to be met in the real world. Nevertheless, there are feasible phases of steady growth as well as feasible phases during which jumps occur.     

刍议加快转变我国外贸增长方式

本文分析了我国转变外贸增长方式的必要性,指出我国外贸发展的方向应是扩大规模与提高质量并举。正确认识我国作为贸易大国的优势,通过加快转变外贸增长方式,实现由贸易大国向贸易强国的转变,才能增强贸易对产业和国民经济的促进作用。     

Networks and small business growth: An explanatory model

To date, there has been limited empirical research related to network theory. With this article, we have tried to fill this gap by testing an explanatory model of the impact of networks on small business growth. To analyze this causal relationship, the log-linear technique was used. The results suggest that networks have an influence on the growth of a small business, especially through contacts with national and international entrepreneurs.     

Harrodian instability in a post-Keynesian growth and distribution model

This article examines afresh the problem of Harrodian instability by incorporating into a post-Keynesian growth model an additional link, first proposed by Adrian Wood (A theory of profit, 1975), between firms’ pricing policies (which determine their profit margins) and their accumulation policies. It is assumed that firms’ pricing strategies are wholly linked to their need to self-finance some of their investments. Such a link suggests, a priori, that there is an endogenous self-correcting force, originating at the micro-level, that is capable of mitigating Harrodian instability. When investment increases or declines uncontrolledly, the variation in the accompanying profit margin is able to exert a contrary smoothing effect on effective demand (through changes in the multiplier). It is shown, firstly, that this effect is such that it leads to the emergence of a basin of attraction for multiple stationary growth rates. However, there is every likelihood that the growth rates in this basin of attraction will be higher than the natural growth rate (and will therefore be unsustainable in the long term). It is shown, secondly, that a sufficiently high budget deficit makes it possible to draw the convergent growth rate space towards a state of stationary equilibrium within the “sphere of the possible”. It is shown, finally, that the state has sufficient room for manoeuvre to arbitrate between competing objectives (employment–distribution–budget deficit) by virtue of the existence of a whole continuum of stationary equilibria.