Dynamic volatility spillovers across shipping freight markets

This paper examines the existence of dynamic volatility spillovers within and between the dry-bulk and tanker freight markets by employing the multivariate DCC-GARCH model and the volatility spillover index developed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2009). This methodology is invariant to ordering the variables when estimating a VAR model and allows for the disaggregation of volatility spillovers in total, directional, net and net pairwise. Results reveal the existence of large time-varying volatility spillovers across shipping freight markets, which are more intense during and after the global financial crisis.     

Seasonality patterns in dry bulk shipping spot and time charter freight rates

This paper investigates the nature of seasonality (deterministic and/or stochastic) in dry bulk freight rates, and measures and compares it across freight rates of different vessel sizes (Capesize, Panamax and Handysize), contract duration (spot, 1-year and 3-year time charters) and market conditions (peaks and troughs). Although, there is no evidence of stochastic seasonality, deterministic seasonality in freight rates is found to be varying from −18.2% to 15.3% in individual months within a year. Spot rates for larger vessels exhibit higher seasonal fluctuations compared to smaller vessels, although differences in seasonal fluctuations between sectors are eliminated as the contract duration increases. Also, for each vessel size, the seasonality declines as the contract duration rises. Asymmetries in seasonal fluctuations in freight rates over different market conditions are attributed to the high and low elasticities of supply expected under the respective market conditions. The results have implications for tactical shipping operations such as timing of dry-docking, chartering strategies and switching between freight markets.     

The influence of charterers and owners on bulk shipping freight rates

We propose a model for freight rate formation in individual contracts that incorporates charterer and owner heterogeneity and owner–charterer match effects. We estimate fixed effect regressions and implement a variance decomposition for 2863 VLCC tanker and 1789 Capesize fixtures between 2011 and 2014. Although market conditions and routes remain the most influential covariates, the characteristics of charterers, owners and of their matches are also significant microeconomic determinants of the freight rate level. The contribution of the charterer fixed effect is large in the VLCC market, while the charterer and match effects are large contributors to the Capesize spot freight rate.     

Combined fleet deployment and inventory management in roll-on/roll-off shipping

In maritime transportation of automobiles, roll-on/roll-off (ro–ro) shipping companies operate liner shipping services across major trade routes. Large ro–ro shipping companies are well placed to offer end-to-end integrated logistics services to auto manufacturers engaged in international trade of vehicles. Therefore, we present a new mixed integer programming model for fleet deployment including inventory management at the ports along each trade route. Due to the complexity of the problem, a rolling horizon heuristic (RHH) is proposed. The RHH solves the problem by iteratively solving sub-problems with shorter planning horizon. Computational results based on real instances are presented.     

Container fleet sizing and empty repositioning in liner shipping systems

This paper considers the joint container fleet sizing and empty container repositioning problem in multi-vessel, multi-port and multi-voyage shipping systems with dynamic, uncertain and imbalanced customer demands. The objective is to minimize the expected total costs including inventory-holding costs, lifting-on/lifting-off costs, transportation costs, repositioning costs, and lost-sale penalty costs. A simulation-based optimization tool is developed to optimize the container fleet size and the parameterized empty repositioning policy simultaneously. The optimization procedure is based on Genetic Algorithms and Evolutionary Strategy combined with an adjustment mechanism. Case studies are given to demonstrate the results.     

The ship routing and freight assignment problem for daily frequency operation of maritime liner shipping

To cope with excess capacity and improve service quality, maritime international liner carriers have recently adopted a new operational model known as daily frequency. In this new model, carriers provide daily pickup and delivery service to customers at major ports along the Pacific Rim. We investigate the ship routing and freight assignment problem for daily frequency operation of liner shipping. A solution procedure that incorporates a Lagrangian relaxation technique and local search was proposed. The numerical results show that Shanghai, Hong Kong and Singapore are ports that are ideal for carriers in establishing daily frequency operations along the Pacific Rim.     

Modelling international tourism demand and volatility in small island tourism economies

Small island tourism economies (SITEs) vary in their size, land area, location, narrow resource bases, economic development, overwhelming reliance on tourism and consistent inflow of foreign direct investment for economic growth. Small island tourism economics differ in their ethnic diversity, political systems, economic and environmental vulnerability, ecological fragility and the risks facing investors. Owing to natural disasters, ethnic conflicts, crime and the threat of global terrorism, there have been dramatic changes in the arrivals of international tourists to SITEs. These variations in international tourism demand to SITEs, particularly the conditional variance (or volatility) in international tourist arrivals, have not previously been analysed in the tourism research literature. An examination of the conditional volatility of international tourist arrivals is essential for policy analysis and marketing purposes. This paper models the conditional mean and conditional variance of the logarithm of monthly international tourist arrivals and the growth rate (or log‐difference) in the monthly international tourist arrivals for six SITEs, namely Barbados, Cyprus, Dominica, Fiji, Maldives and Seychelles. Diagnostic checks of the regularity conditions of the logarithm of monthly international tourist arrivals and their growth rates suggest that the estimated univariate models of trends and volatility are statistically adequate. Therefore, the estimated models are appropriate for purposes of public and private sector management of tourism. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Frequency and aircraft size dynamics in a concentrated growth market: The case of the Chinese domestic market

Despite the explosive growth of the Chinese aviation sector and the major industry reforms undertaken in recent decades, the Chinese domestic market remains highly concentrated with a significant element of regulation and governmental control in areas such as market entry and airline fleet planning. In this study, we investigate the frequency strategies and aircraft choices of airlines operating in this concentrated growth market. Our empirical investigation suggests that airlines mainly accommodate rapid traffic growth by flying more frequently, although increased aircraft size also contributes to market expansion. We also find a negative relationship between market concentration and flight frequency. Due to the more balanced market structure resulting from mergers among leading airlines since 2002, there has been a moderate reduction in market concentration at route level, contributing to a 3.7% increase in traffic volume from 2002 to 2008. The results of our study suggest that Chinese travelers have yet to fully enjoy the benefits of market liberalization, and airports should prioritize increasing capacity related to aircraft movements over the accommodation of larger aircraft.     

Impact of landing fees on airlines’ choice of aircraft size and service frequency in duopoly markets

A one-shot simultaneous game-theoretic model is applied in a duopoly market to investigate how airport landing fees could influence airlines’ decisions on aircraft size and service frequency. It is found that higher landing fees will force airlines to use larger aircraft and less frequency, with higher load factor for the same number of passengers. It is also found that airlines will be better off if some of the extra landing fees are returned to airlines as a bonus for airlines using larger aircraft, which consequently reduces airport congestion.     

The trade-off between fixed vehicle costs and time-dependent arrival penalties in a routing problem

This paper introduces the vehicle routing problem with soft time windows (VRPSTW) in which problem definition differs from ones previously defined in literature. Branch-and-price approach is employed, resulting in a set partitioning master problem and its new subproblem. Novel techniques are consequently developed to solve this new subproblem. Experimental results report the comparisons of these solution techniques under the branch-and-price framework. The VRPSTW solutions have further been compared to the state-of-the-art literature, signifying the superiority of the VRPSTW on this issue.     

The relationship between tourism receipts,real effective exchange rate and economic growth in Tunisia

The objective of this paper is to analyse the role of tourism in the Tunisian economic growth. We used a trivariate model of real gross domestic product (GDP), real international tourism receipts and real effective exchange rate to discuss the relationship between tourism and economic growth. By using annual data for Tunisia for the period of 1970–2007, our results reveal that there is a cointegrating relationship between tourism and economic growth. In addition, our results for the Granger causality test indicate that tourism has a positive impact on GDP growth unidirectionally. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.