Innovation diffusion: research agenda for developing economies

This paper reviews the literature on innovation to build an agenda for research on innovation diffusion in developing countries. The main ideas on innovation diffusion are discussed, aiming at identifying the key aspects that determine the introduction and development of new technologies in an economy. Analysis of the literature suggests that innovation diffusion depends on three contextual aspects that are economy and government, technology strategies of firms, and management of innovation. Based on this analysis, four areas for research on the subject are identified, aiming at increasing the knowledge about mechanisms and approaches of innovation diffusion in developing countries.     

The impact of Universal Service Obligations and International Cross-subsidies on the dispersion of telephone services in developing countries

This paper re-evaluates the telecommunication policies often applied to create regional dispersion of services in developing countries. We observe that failure to consider the complexities of the regional telecommunication systems in creating policies and investment strategies has increased the telecom gap between urban and rural regions worldwide. In particular, the teledensities of rural telecommunications in developing countries have remained very low in spite of support through universal service obligation fees and cross-subsidization from international services. As traditional methods for economic analysis and modeling have failed to identify mechanisms that improve telephone dispersion in these countries, we use a system dynamics modeling approach to deal with complexities of the situation in order to evaluate how Universal Service Obligations (USOs) and International Cross-Subsidy (ICS) policies affect telephone densities. We demonstrate that these policies may be counterproductive due to the structure of the telecom system itself. We also show that, when market-clearing pricing is combined with USOs once the urban telephone density reaches a minimum threshold, the dispersion of rural telecommunications can be considerably improved.     

Foresighting FLOSS (free/libre/open source software) from a developing country perspective: The case of Turkey

Since free/libre open source software (FLOSS) promotes collaboration and contributions from different parties in software production and innovation processes, it can create a unique opportunity for developing countries, by generating an innovative capability in software technology. To benefit from this opportunity, it is important to understand the strategic factors and future trends that affect the development of an efficient FLOSS economy in developing countries.This paper aims to examine the strategic factors and future trends that are likely to affect the development and deployment of FLOSS in Turkey. Based on the internal and external factors identified through the practice of technological foresight, a SWOT analysis will be carried out to identify the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats for Turkey in creating a competitive software industry that can benefit from the advantages of FLOSS. Accordingly, with regard to the required technical infrastructure, an innovative/competitive business climate, skilled human resources and support for institutional structures, policy suggestions are outlined here that could be usefully implemented by government, industry and universities.     

Decision-Maker Characteristics and the Global Intensity of Professional Service Firms

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to examine the global intensity of professional service firms in light of the firms' and top managements' characteristics. Questionnaires were sent to 1,600 service firms in the United States representing a broad cross-section of service industries potentially engaged in international business. The results indicate that the international experience and focus of top management, as well as firm size, contribute to differences among the levels of global intensity investigated.     

Trade and Growth: Reconciling the Macroeconomic and Microeconomic Evidence

Abstract.  Many empirical studies based on plant-level data have found that firms that enter the export markets are more productive than non-exporters and that this difference in productivity is achieved before firms become involved in exporting. These findings have challenged the traditional view that openness to trade increases productivity and economic growth. This article reconsiders the literature on trade, growth, and trade policies and argues that a careful examination of these new findings is consistent with the idea that exporting increases productivity and economic growth.     

The knowledge spillover theory of entrepreneurship: the developing country context

International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal - This is among the few studies to test the Knowledge Spillover Theory of Entrepreneurship (KSTE) at the city level in a developing country...     

关于发展我国汽车再制造的探讨

文章阐述了汽车再制造的概况,分析了汽车再制造是一种可实现资源持续利用的系统工程,提出了汽车再制造的可行性以及对发展我国汽车再制造业的思考。     

Constructive Pressures And Incentives To Reform: Globalization and its impact on public sector performance and governance in developing countries

Contrary to widespread pessimism regarding the effects of globalization on nation states and the quality of governance in developing countries, this contribution stresses that several of its features can be made instrumental, and be beneficial, in terms of public policy making and state capability. Four ‘constructive pressures’ stemming from globalization could be seized constructively by citizens and governments in the developing world: First, better informed and better connected citizens, and an emerging global civil society, demand improvements in service delivery, transparency, and participation. Second, subnational governments, often backed by local NGOs and businesses, and keen to attract foreign investment, increasingly exert pressure vis-à-vis central governments. Third, global investment strategies by private businesses increase the demand for appropriate institutional arrangements within developing countries as well as credible government policies. Although with mixed results, forth, International Organizations, in particular IFIs, have been addressing public sector modernization in developing countries, also sponsoring global public policy networks in critical areas. Moreover, policy coordination and cooperation among states increases significantly, constraining arbitrary action by governments. Globalization, thus, advances the discussion about, and the demand for, new institutional arrangements, clearly with new opportunities for improvements in state capability and governance.     

Towards a strategic model of employment reform in developing countries: explaining and remedying experience to date

The article argues for the importance of employment reform as a subject for international HRM scholarship. Employment reform has been one of the most significant, but also most neglected, recent initiatives in international HRM. Explanations by the World Bank and IMF for the poorer than expected outcomes of reform to date emphasize the importance of political commitment. They are compared with explanations for the similarly poor outcomes of downsizing in industrialized country organizations, which emphasize strategy, diagnosis, incrementalism and provision for retrenchees. Further clarification is provided by the results of field interviews in Ghana, Malaysia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Uganda and the UK. The article argues for a strategic approach to employment reform, one based on diagnosis and drawing on HRM expertise. It should take account of process factors in reform, make provision for the 'victims' of reform, loosen the link between employment reform and pay reform, and refine the role of donors in supporting reform. HRM practitioners and scholars have an important contribution to make to developing a new approach.     

Bayesian VAR forecasts,survey information,and structural change in the euro area

We incorporate external information extracted from the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters into the predictions of a Bayesian VAR using entropic tilting and soft conditioning. The resulting conditional forecasts significantly improve the plain BVAR point and density forecasts. Importantly, we do not restrict the forecasts at a specific quarterly horizon but their possible paths over several horizons jointly since the survey information comes in the form of one- and two-year-ahead expectations. As well as improving the accuracy of the variable that we target, the spillover effects on “other-than-targeted” variables are relevant in size and are statistically significant. We document that the baseline BVAR exhibits an upward bias for GDP growth after the financial crisis, and our results provide evidence that survey forecasts can help mitigate the effects of structural breaks on the forecasting performance of a popular macroeconometric model.     

The impact of computer use on earnings in a developing country: Evidence from Ecuador

This paper examines the earnings premium to computer use in a developing country: Ecuador. We use different approaches to examine whether the premium is causal. Controlling for an extensive set of observables, we find an earnings difference between users and non-users of around 20%. Using first differences, the premium drops and is no longer significant in a specification that includes proxies for workers' computer experience and knowledge. Estimates of the impact of the intensity of computer use are also small and in most cases insignificant. Estimates of the pencil premium are substantial in level specifications, but become insignificant in fixed effect specifications. Taken together, also in the setting of a developing country we do not find evidence in favour of the computer premium reflecting a causal impact.     

Cultural barriers in the transferability of Japanese and American human resources practices to developing countries: the Turkish case

Multinational enterprises can be expected to increase their chances of success by understanding the socio-cultural systems of the regions in which they operate. This paper examines the applicability of Japanese and American human resources management practices in Turkey within a socio-cultural perspective. Emphasizing the contextual differences between developing and industrialized countries and comparing work-related values of the three countries, the paper argues that Japanese human resources practices are more compatible with Turkish societal characteristics than are their American or Western counterparts.     

我国港口物流的现状及发展趋势

从发展港口物流业的优势、重要地位等方面研究了发展现代港口物流业的重要性,并结合国内主要港口物流业的发展状况论述了我国港口物流业发展方面存在的主要问题。结合世界大港物流业的发展研究了港口物流业的发展趋势,对把握港口物流业的发展起着重要的指导意义。     

建设创新型国家与实施科技赶超战略

通过建设创新型国家来实现科学技术赶超,是中国经济社会发展中,一个关乎全局的重大战略选择。实施科技赶超战略,有利于推动科技水平的普遍提高和重点领域自主创新的跨越式发展,带动产业结构的调整和发展模式的转变。文章介绍了赶超型科学技术进步战略的内涵及其与建设创新型国家的关系,分析了我国选择实施科技赶超战略的理由;围绕调动科学研究、技术创新各种主体的积极性和创造性,发挥政府和市场两种资源配置方式的作用,勾画了实施科技赶超战略的新机制。     

Network ties and entrepreneurial orientation: Innovative performance of SMEs in a developing country

This study investigates the role of intra-cluster ties, extra-cluster ties, and entrepreneurial orientation in shaping firms’ innovative performance. We conduct our analysis on a primary data set of 120 small and medium enterprises located in the Cibaduyut footwear-manufacturing cluster, Indonesia. We explore the effectiveness of knowledge acquisition through intra-cluster ties and extra-cluster ties on innovative performance. We find that extra-cluster ties mediate the relationship between proactiveness and innovative performance. Also, a combination of high extra-cluster ties and risk taking exert a positive impact on innovative performance. Surprisingly, we find that risk taking negatively moderates the influence of intra-cluster ties on innovative performance. Over-reliance on within-cluster knowledge sharing may result in the diffusion of redundant knowledge rather than making new knowledge available to the firm. Overall, our findings point to the synergistic effects of entrepreneurial orientation and extra-cluster ties on innovative performance.     

Modelling and forecasting government bond spreads in the euro area: A GVAR model

This paper proposes an extension to Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) models to capture time-varying interdependence among financial variables. Government bond spreads in the euro area feature a time-varying pattern of co-movement that poses a serious challenge for econometric modelling and forecasting. This pattern of the data is not captured by the standard specification that model spreads as persistent processes reverting to a time-varying mean determined by two factors: a local factor, driven by fiscal fundamentals and growth, and a global world factor, driven by the market’s appetite for risk. This paper argues that a third factor, expectations of exchange rate devaluation, gained traction during the crises. This factor is well captured via a GVAR that models the interdependence among spreads by making each country’s spread function of global European spreads. Global spreads capture the exposure of each country’s spread to other spreads in the euro area in terms of the time-varying ‘distance’ between their fiscal fundamentals. This new specification dominates the standard one in modelling the time-varying pattern of co-movements among spreads and the response of euro area spreads to the Greek debt crisis.     

“The weighted average cost of capital is not quite right”: A comment

In this journal, Miller [Miller, R. A. (2009). The weighted average cost of capital is not quite right. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 49, 128–138] argues that the standard WACC formula fails to correctly remunerate shareholders and bondholders. This is proved by considering a project yielding a zero net present value. In this comment, we prove that this apparent failure of the standard WACC approach simply stems from the fact that, in Miller's example, the project's debt ratio is implicitly assumed constant throughout the project's life, whereas it is not. We also show that the suggested modified WACC formula is not relevant. More generally, we emphasize that, in any year, a project's debt ratio must be defined with respect to the economic value of the project.     

Predictive financial models of the euro area: A new evaluation test

This paper investigates the predictive ability of financial variables for euro area growth. Our forecasts are built from univariate autoregressive and single equation models. Euro area aggregate forecasts are constructed both by employing aggregate variables and by aggregating country-specific forecasts. The forecast evaluation is based on a recently developed test for equal predictive ability between nested models. Employing a monthly dataset from the period between January 1988 and May 2005 and setting the out-of-sample period to be from 2001 onwards, we find that the single most powerful predictor on a country basis is the stock market returns, followed by money supply growth. However, for the euro area aggregate, the set of most powerful predictors includes interest rate variables as well. The forecasts from pooling individual country models outperform those from the aggregate itself for short run forecasts, while for longer horizons this pattern is reversed. Additional benefits are obtained when combining information from a range of variables or combining model forecasts.     

Capital-skill complementarity,productivity and wages: Evidence from plant-level data for a developing country

Different types of labor and capital inputs have varying productive contributions that are dependent on plant characteristics. We estimate such contributions and their underlying determinants, recognizing the interactions among labor and capital components that reflect their substitutability or complementarity, for Turkish manufacturing plants. We distinguish technical and non-technical labor, and structures, machinery and computer capital, as well as the shares of female workers and imported capital in our production function specification. We find capital-skill complementary for both machinery and computers; greater productive contributions and thus wages for skilled labor are associated with more machinery intensity and computer use. The reverse is true for unskilled labor, which is complementary only with capital structures. Our results suggest that synergies among skilled (technical) labor, computers, and machinery capital have productivity- and skilled wage-enhancing effects that could contribute to productivity convergence of developing toward developed countries, even with their differing industry and input composition.     

Green shoots and double dips in the euro area: A real time measure

In order to perform real-time business cycle inferences and forecasts of GDP growth rates in the euro area, we use an extension of the Markov-switching dynamic factor models that accounts for the features of the day-to-day monitoring of economic developments, such as ragged edges, mixed frequencies and data revisions. We provide examples that show the nonlinear nature of the relationships between data revisions, point forecasts and forecast uncertainty. Based on our empirical results, we think that the real-time probabilities of recession inferred from the model are an appropriate statistic for capturing what the press call green shoots, and for monitoring double-dip recessions.