共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
《Resource and Energy Economics》2000,22(2):161-188
Load management programs are used by electric utilities to decrease peak consumption. Although they are generally offered simultaneously with regular service, economic models of their allocative efficiency are based on the implicit assumption that they are the only service available. We present a model in which participation to a particular load management program, called self-rationing, is optional. We show that, under a break-even constraint, welfare-maximizing prices involve a subsidy from the self-rationing program to regular service whenever peak demand is less elastic than base demand. If cross-subsidization is precluded, regular service is viable only if there exist transaction costs to participate in the self-rationing program. 相似文献
2.
High-frequency data improves the timeliness of movie attendance forecasts, but also results in the issue of seasonality. The main objective of this article is to build and test a novel movie attendance model that considers seasonality. Based on the Bass model, we combine an intertemporal demand shift pattern and the binary elements of seasonality – weekends and holidays – and propose a model called DISBM. We chose a sample of 58 movies released in China in 2013 to evaluate our proposal. The empirical results suggest that DISBM has better performance than other seasonal models. We demonstrate that the intertemporal demand shift results in weekend fluctuations, while the extra demand causes the seasonal holiday effect. The intent of this study is to better understand various movie attendance diffusions given different seasonal effects, in order to develop corresponding marketing strategies. 相似文献
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价格是调整水资源供需平衡的重要经济杠杆,是引导用户合理用水和节约用水最为重要的经济手段。面对我国水资源日益紧缺的严峻形势,本文借鉴电力部门用电管理采用的需求侧管理技术,探讨了实施水资源需求侧管理的水价制度,着重分析了高峰负荷定价、论质水价在水资源需求侧管理中的作用,同时指出建立水资源需求侧管理的水价制度应该注意的几个问题。 相似文献
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The French wholesale market is set to expand in the next few years under European pressure and national decisions. In this article, we assess the forecasting ability of several classes of time-series models for electricity wholesale spot prices at a day-ahead horizon in France. Electricity spot prices display a strong seasonal pattern, particularly in France, given the high share of electric heating in housing during winter time. To deal with this pattern, we implement a double temporal segmentation of the data. For each trading period and season, we use a large number of specifications based on market fundamentals: linear regressions, Markov-switching (MS) models and threshold models with a smooth transition. An extensive evaluation on French data shows that modelling each season independently leads to better results. Among nonlinear models, MS models designed to capture the sudden and fast-reverting spikes in the price dynamics yield more accurate forecasts. Finally, pooling forecasts give more reliable results. 相似文献
7.
Long-run Study of Residential Water Consumption 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The estimation of dynamic models and themeasure of long-run effects arerare in residential water demand studies. Weshow in
this paper that a dynamicmodel of water consumption can be derived froma structural optimisation programsolved by local communities.
Thisnonlinear model is estimated on asample of French municipalities and is foundasymptotically equivalent to a dynamic panel
data model that is linear in theparameters. The latter includes anoriginal error-component structure that allowsfor a flexible
heterogeneity pattern, including both the usual idiosyncraticeffect, and an additional individualeffect affected by a multiplicative
time-varyingparameter. As usual GMM estimators for panel data are not consistent inthis case, we propose a new GMMprocedure
that yields consistent and efficientestimates of short- and long-runprice elasticities (respectively −0.26 and−0.40). 相似文献
8.
The strong economic ties between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies and the USA are manifested in three ways: currency peg, coupling of monetary policy, and the adoption of the US dollar as the trading currency for oil. This paper examines how these dynamics result in a misalignment of the US monetary policy with the business cycles of the GCC economies. The study shows how the staggering amount of remittances outflow of the GCC economies plays a stabilizing role as a tacit monetary policy tool. Incorporating remittances in the money‐demand equation results in a more robust model than otherwise. We further find that the effect of the Federal Funds rate on money demand in these countries diminishes in significance during the period of oil boom between 2002 and 2009. However, the transmission effect of the recession periods in the USA into the demand for money in the GCC countries is not statistically significant. 相似文献
9.
本文运用结构向量自回归模型,将海湾六国产出的同步波动性和遭受冲击的对称性联系起来。研究发现,1977-2006年间海湾六国遭受需求冲击的对称程度要高于供给冲击,对称性的需求冲击对维持六国经济周期的同步性既显著又重要,而供给冲击的对称性对维持六国经济周期的同步性几乎没有作用;另外,本文没有发现供给和需求冲击的对称性对经济周期的同步波动有滞后影响。本文实证研究的结果对于海湾六国未来单一货币的汇率制度选择具有重要的参考意义。 相似文献
10.
Joscha Beckmann 《Review of International Economics》2013,21(4):654-670
Although the empirical literature has delivered evidence in favor of nonlinearities in nominal and real exchange rate adjustment, the corresponding mechanisms with respect to the relationship between nominal exchange rates and fundamentals in general have rarely been put under any close scrutiny. This paper extends the work of other authors, who estimate exponential smooth transition autoregressive models to deviations of the exchange rate from monetary fundamentals. Using monthly data from 1976:01 to 2010:12 for the USA, UK, and Japan, this paper first adopts a cointegrated vector autoregression (VAR) framework to test for the multivariate validity of the monetary model by applying restrictions on the long‐run relationships. Then, nonlinear vector error correction models are estimated to tackle the question of whether the adjustment of the nominal exchange rate with respect to those relationships follows a nonlinear path. 相似文献
11.
In this paper nonlinear structures in German bank stock returns are investigated in a stochastic modelling framework. In the first step we show the existence of a nonlinear return structure by means of the McLeod-Li and the BDS test. In the second step we focus our analysis on the kinds of nonlinearity actually present in bank stock data. On the basis of the Hsieh test it is possible to discriminate with high power additive from multiplicative dependencies to provide guidance for the choice of an adequate class of stochastic models. It is shown that the multiplicative dependencies predominating the bank stock returns can be captured by low order GARCH models. 相似文献
12.
This paper develops a model of the relationship between public sector employment, total output and aggregate real demand
in market prices, where public employment has a positive productivity effect on private output. Public employment crowds out
private employment and output because its increase induces higher wages and taxes. The valuation of government output is also
taken into account. While public employment affects total output and aggregate real demand in an a priori ambiguous way, numerical
simulations suggest that the relationship may be nonlinear; positive, when public sector is “small” and negative, when it
is “large”. Using the annual data from 22 OECD countries over the period 1960–1996 and estimating and testing for threshold
models and more commonly used specifications with multiplicative interaction terms give support to this nonlinearity hypothesis
between public employment and private sector output.
First version received: October 1996/Final version received: April 2000 相似文献
13.
Xiaofang Wang Guoli Ou 《中国经济评论(英文版)》2004,3(11):1-6
The section of electric power is the foundation of national economy. The paper analyzes the relation between industrial structure and grid load in Shanxi province, and finds out that electricity demand and grid load relate linearly to value added of industry. In the end, the paper predicts electricity demand and grid load via the model. 相似文献
14.
This paper proposes a nonlinear error-correction model based upon smooth transition regression methodology. The model is specified such that the short-run adjustment toward long-run equilibrium is nonlinear and that the error correction is a smooth function of long-run deviation. Empirical results obtained from estimating M2 money demand in Taiwan support the hypothesis of a nonlinear error-correction process and provide better interpretation of change in the demand for money. 相似文献
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The single-equation approach has been commonly used in the studies of energy demand. However, as most of the data used in the energy demand model are unlikely to be stationary, this factor has to be taken into account when estimating the demand behavior. To overcome this problem, the authors have applied the cointegration and error-correction models to model Chinese coal consumption data. In order to contrast their performance with such traditional models as Hendry's general-to-specific approach, a forecast error comparison exercise has been conducted. In terms ofex post forecast errors, the Engle-Granger error correction model outperforms other chosen models. By using the Engle-Granger approach, it is possible to obtain important information about the behavior of coal demand in China. 相似文献
16.
Timo Teräsvirta 《Empirical Economics》1995,20(4):577-597
This paper considers modelling the annual logarithmed per capita gross national product of the United States in 1889–1987. Some authors have suggested that the parameters of the process generating the data have changed over time but formal parameter constancy tests do not support this argument. The series turns out to be nonlinear and can be adequately characterized by an exponential smooth transition autoregressive model. For comparison, a detrended series is also considered, found nonlinear and modelled using a logistic smooth transition autoregressive model. The behaviour of the estimated models is discussed, and it is seen that nonlinearity is needed to describe the response of the process to exceptionally large exogenous shocks. The properties of the models are further investigated by forecasting several years ahead, and the forecasts are compared with those from other linear and nonlinear models. 相似文献
17.
Bernard Fingleton 《Empirical Economics》2008,34(1):35-57
This paper proposes a new GMM estimator for spatial regression models with moving average errors. Monte Carlo results are
given which suggest that the GMM estimates are consistent and robust to non-normality, and the Bootstrap method is suggested
as a way of testing the significance of the moving average parameter. The estimator is applied in a model of English real
estate prices, in which the concepts of displaced demand and displaced supply are introduced to derive the spatial lag of
prices, and the moving average error process represents spatially autocorrelated unmodelled variables.
相似文献
18.
A theoretical model of the law of one price which allows for seasonality in transaction costs and supply and demand conditions between markets is developed. Bivariate three-regime threshold vector error correction models are applied to natural gas markets to examine seasonality in threshold levels. Results indicate that there are nonlinear adjustments to the law of one price in seven pair-wise markets (Chicago is used as the base market). In the natural gas sector, dynamic threshold effects relative to the Chicago market vary depending on season, geographical location and whether the market is an excess producing or consuming market. 相似文献
19.
Anthony F. Herbst 《Journal of Bioeconomics》2007,9(1):1-18
Popular culture and folklore have long recognized the influence of the lunar cycle on plant, animal, and human behavior. Many
of the effects have been validated in the physical and biological sciences. However, until recently such effects have been
largely, if not completely ignored in the academic literature of financial economics. This study aims to contribute to answering
whether there is, as some claim, a lunar influence on stock prices or volatility. The findings of this work support the Efficient
Markets Hypothesis—no consistent, predictable lunar influence is found on either daily returns or daily price volatility in
the Dow Jones Industrial Average, for either new or full moons. Some effects are found, but not consistent or predictable
with lunar and calendar information alone.
相似文献
20.
This paper deals with an alternative approach to treating seasonality in error correction models for consumption with a parsimonious
parameterization as proposed by Harvey and Scott. We introduce an unobserved seasonal component into an error correction model
for Austrian consumer expenditures on nondurables and services and compare the results with different approaches. The use
of stochastic seasonal results in a definite improvement of the estimated model.
First version received: October 1997/Final version received: May 2000 相似文献