共查询到5条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
M. Atilla Oner Author Vitae Ozcan Saritas Author Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2005,72(7):886-911
In this study, we propose a new model for systems analysis ‘of’ policy and systems analysis ‘for’ policy with the example of construction sector in the Turkish 5-year development plans.Our proposed model—integrated development management model (IDMM)—is conceptually based on the principles of systems thinking and integrated management approach.We present and discuss the results of our work in which we extracted all construction-related policies and strategies from eight 5-year development plans and analyzed them using the IDMM. In the light of the analyses, we give several answers to the question: “Why did the development plans fail to meet their targets in Turkey?” We propose that any development plan has to have claritas-unitas-integritas-consonantia between the management levels (normative, strategic, and operational) and components (goals, structures, and behavior) of IDMM.The paper is the first work that brings the concepts of development planning and foresight together. In a complementary stance, the time of integrating foresight and development planning has come. 相似文献
2.
This paper proposes a new systems approach to foresight studies. The paper will first indicate the complex and conflicting nature of long-term decision-making process. Then, the need for systems approach will be highlighted by the analysis of 1995 UK Delphi survey results and the scenarios of 2000 UK foresight scenarios. The paper proposes two methodologies, namely Integrated Management Model (IMM) and Roadmapping, in order to overcome challenges introduced by the multidimensional characteristics and complex nature of foresight studies. Based on systemic approach, IMM offers a useful way of developing long-term normative policies and strategies and their transformations into actions by considering necessary changes in organizational structures and behaviors. In addition, roadmapping is used to capture, manipulate and manage information to decrease complexity in the foresight by constructing roadmaps. In the paper, IMM and roadmapping are employed first to analyze UK foresight results and then to develop a new methodology to formulate Delphi events and scenarios for the successful implementation of foresight. This paper also promotes the integrated use of foresight techniques such as scenarios and Delphi rather than one for another. 相似文献
3.
Adaptive Foresight has been developed at the crossroads of foresight and adaptive strategic planning. Innovation is seen as increasingly complex, interdependent and uncertain and therefore in need of broad and multi-disciplinary exploration and participation. The adaptive planning paradigm provides a natural guide for navigation of this complex landscape: one should consider whether strategic decisions should be deferred until more information is available and simultaneously whether to invest in (real) options which would facilitate the implementation of such decisions if taken some future time. This does not mean that all strategic decisions should be deferred. Rather it is the careful combining of commitment and opportunism that best enables actors to pursue their super-ordinate values and objectives. Compared to conventional foresight, Adaptive Foresight thus favours a more modest interpretation of the collective ability to “shape the future” and stresses the need to adapt to actions by others. Here it is equally important to be able to exploit the upside of uncertainty as to abate its downside. The purpose of this paper is to achieve a conceptual consolidation of Adaptive Foresight, to review in a fairly hands-on way methodological experience thus far, and to outline the substantial methodological challenges ahead. 相似文献
4.
柳骅 《生态经济(学术版)》2014,30(11):192-195
以城市滨水景观为研究对象,在简要介绍LID理念及其应用现状的基础上,分析了城市滨水景观低影响开发设计的必要性和可行性,探讨了基于LID理念的城市滨水景观设计目标和开发策略,并重点阐述了低影响开发在城市滨水景观设计中的应用途径和方法,以期为城市水域空间合理开发和水环境整治提供一定的理论指导和技术借鉴。 相似文献
5.
总结中国小微建筑企业当前发展概况,系统分析中国小微建筑企业自身的优缺点,当前所面临的挑战与机遇,并结合其优缺点和未来面临的机遇与挑战进行了SWOT分析,通过分析得出未来中国小微建筑企业的发展策略。 相似文献