A systems approach to policy analysis and development planning: Construction sector in the Turkish 5-year development plans

In this study, we propose a new model for systems analysis ‘of’ policy and systems analysis ‘for’ policy with the example of construction sector in the Turkish 5-year development plans.Our proposed model—integrated development management model (IDMM)—is conceptually based on the principles of systems thinking and integrated management approach.We present and discuss the results of our work in which we extracted all construction-related policies and strategies from eight 5-year development plans and analyzed them using the IDMM. In the light of the analyses, we give several answers to the question: “Why did the development plans fail to meet their targets in Turkey?” We propose that any development plan has to have claritas-unitas-integritas-consonantia between the management levels (normative, strategic, and operational) and components (goals, structures, and behavior) of IDMM.The paper is the first work that brings the concepts of development planning and foresight together. In a complementary stance, the time of integrating foresight and development planning has come.     

Interpreting foresight process impacts: Steps towards the development of a framework conceptualising the dynamics of ‘foresight systems’

Foresight programmes are usually evaluated in terms of the achievement of initial objectives and the scale and nature of direct, anticipated impacts, notwithstanding the difficulty of measuring such impacts. However, indirect and/or unanticipated impacts that fall outside the scope of specific programme goals and objectives have also been reported. These are mainly impacts associated with the foresight process itself, i.e. with the way in which foresight exercises are designed and implemented. These impacts typically fall in areas such as:

• Knowledge creation, diffusion and absorption;

• Social capital and networking;

• The evolution of strategies to cope with or escape from the negative consequences of a ‘risk society’.

The diversity of the above areas suggests that foresight process impacts should be interpreted through the lenses of epistemology, sociology, political science, management science and organisational theory. In parallel, given that developments in the above spheres are strongly associated with the evolution of ‘participatory knowledge societies’, this paper presents an interpretation of foresight process impacts within a conceptual framework that attempts to characterise such societies.

Additionally, such an interpretation is conceived as a step towards the development of a conceptual framework aimed at understanding the dynamics of ‘foresight systems’. This framework should be capable of explaining the interdependencies and inter-relationships between system elements such as actors, processes, inputs, outputs and impacts, as well as the interaction of the system with the broader socio-technological-economic-political environment.

The overall aim of the paper is to develop an impact assessment framework for foresight exercises that assesses the degree to which they promote the development of ’participatory knowledge societies’.

The paper is based primarily on research carried out during the preparation of a PhD thesis entitled “Assessing the contribution of Foresight to a more participatory knowledge society”. The research mainly involved a literature review of available documentation on past and present foresight programmes and their results.     

Current Foresight Activities in France, Spain, and Italy

Recent years have brought a significant revival of public foresight activities in many European countries, including France, Spain, and Italy. The French context is rather specific in the sense that public planning and foresight (prospective) are an old tradition starting in the early post war period, but was progressively abandoned until its international revival during the 1990s. The recent experiences combine a mix of methods including the experimental reproduction of foreign experiences for long-term science and technology foresight (allowing comparisons of the experts’ opinions between countries) and the development of a specific study of critical technologies in the shorter term with the direct aim of orienting and improving the microeconomic strategies in the country.Spain and Italy started their own tests of foresight procedures later. The diffusion of foresight approaches and methods is certainly influenced by cultural proximities between countries of Roman civilization, but the different national settings led to relatively diverse experiences. International comparisons reveal the wide variety of methods and implementations that can be contemplated at present in Europe—a living laboratory of public foresight experiences.     

Rational Choice and the Condorcet Jury Theorem

In a recent paper, Austen-Smith and Banks (1996,Amer. Polit. Sci. Rev.90, 34–45), criticize the current literature on the Condorcet jury theorem as neglecting the behavioral underpinnings of decision-making. They leave open the question whether allowing mixed strategies would sustain the conclusions of the Condorcet jury theorem. In this paper, it is shown that these conclusions can hold in equilibrium. In other words, “a rational choice foundation for the claim that majorities invariably ‘do better’ than individuals” is derived. (Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Number: D72.     

Technology Foresight Activities in Korea and in Countries Closing the Technology Gap

This article discusses technology foresight in selected countries which were politically dependent (colonial) before World War II and considered as “under-developed” in the post-war period. Most of them show considerable economic dynamism in the 1990s, which is not always based on their own scientific and technological capability. For this group of countries, national exercises in technology foresight are likely to be an important tool in planning the strategic direction for science and technology development in order to catch up economically as well as socially. In Korea, which has recently become an OECD member, comparative advantage based on factors such as low wages and protected industries are no longer effective as the economy is now wide open to the world. Foresight is being used to look at comparative advantages based on Korea’s own knowledge-creating activities. In southeast Asian countries, foresight is still in an infant stage, but most of these have medium-term planning cycles and have undertaken longer-term vision studies. In South Africa, a national foresight project is running, as is an adapting foresight process to make the large national research organization fit. In Latin America, an agenda has been set up which indicates the desire of several countries to engage in foresight activities using different approaches.     

National Technology Foresight Activities Around the Globe: Resurrection and New Paradigms

This contribution summarizes recent experiences in government or national technology forecasting which are now often termed “foresight.” While the methodological tool kit changed from mathematical models to more qualitative scenarios or visions, the Delphi method has become the backbone of foresight projects. Recent national activities, being dealt with in this special issue, are compared in terms of their comprehensiveness, their science versus industry orientation, and their analytic versus action-oriented targets. Although some of these are ongoing, we can discern several new foresight paradigms. From the perspectives of sociology and political sciences, foresight elements seem to be the means of communication (or the “wiring up”) for the negotiating systems of the society. From an economics and management point of view, foresight is helpful for benchmarking and for initiating feedback processes between future demand and present day investment in research and development. From a cultural point of view, the resurrection of foresight in the 1990s seems to be related to growing globalization and at the same time the recognition of national or regional innovation systems. Finally, in terms of international affairs supranational foresight seems to become a new venture.     

Afterword on the Five-Year Outlook: Problems and promises

The editors offer a synthesis that reflects the motivations and concerns that underlie this volume and present “some reasonably tempered hopes and future prospects”. Among the former, they discuss “political/ institutional issues” impinging on the Outlook—its purpose, production, users, and feedback—as well as “technical/intellectual” ones. Among the latter, they note that for Outlook reports beyond the second, current signals are that the science policy community will be involved more substantially, and that contributions in general will be decentralized. They foresee the Outlook evolving into a forum for discussion and advocacy of future science-technology priorities.     

Strategic planning in public R&D organizations for agribusiness: Brazil and the United States of America

There is increasing evidence that public organizations dedicated exclusively to research and development (R&D) in agribusiness need systematic management tools to incorporate the uncertainties and complexities of technological and nontechnological factors of external environments in its long-term strategic plans. The major issues are: “What will be the agribusiness science and technology (S&T) needs be in the future?” “How to prepare in order to meet these needs?” Both Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation, Embrapa), attached to the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture and the Agricultural Research Service (ARS) of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) have developed a comprehensive strategic and operational planning process in order to answer these key questions in the 1990s. The main objective of this article is to present a comparative and preliminary analysis of concepts, methodologies, and processes utilized, and some results obtained by these public organizations.     

On Hayek's road to serfdom: 60 years later

Stimulated by recent work of Levy–Peart–Ferrant, Rosser and McPhail, I read The Road to Serfdom by projecting it onto four registers—security and freedom, impersonal forces and the market, rules and the rule of law, and language and education—and identify in each the need for judgement, hopefully balanced but inevitably arbitrary beyond an analytical threshold, a need exacerbated by incomplete and dispersed knowledge. My larger project is to understand the role of the expert, theoretician if one prefers, in a ‘free’ society.     

Subjective states: A more robust model

We study the demand for flexibility and what it reveals about subjective uncertainty. As in Kreps [D. Kreps, 1979. A representation theorem for ‘preference for flexibility’. Econometrica 47, 565–577], Nehring [K. Nehring, 1996. Preference for flexibility and freedom of choice in a Savage framework. UC Davis Working Paper; K. Nehring, 1999. Preference for flexibility in a Savage framework. Econometrica 67, 101–119] and Dekel et al. [E. Dekel, B. Lipman, A. Rustichini, 2001. Representing preferences with a unique subjective state space. Econometrica 69, 891–934], the latter is represented by a subjective state space consisting of possible future preferences over actions to be chosen ex post. One contribution is to provide axiomatic foundations for a range of alternative hypotheses about the nature of these ex post preferences. Secondly, we establish a sense in which the subjective state space is uniquely pinned down by the ex ante ranking of (random) menus. Finally, we demonstrate the tractability of our representation by showing that it can model the two comparative notions “2 desires more flexibility than 1” and “2 is more averse to flexibility-risk than is 1.”     

Happiness, freedom and control

How do people value freedom of choice? Drawing on economics and psychology the paper provides an hypothesis and empirical evidence on how individuals may value freedom of choice and derive utility from it. It is argued that the degree of perceived control that individuals have over choice – a construct known as the locus of control in psychology – regulates how we value freedom of choice. People who believe that the outcome of their actions depends on internal factors such as effort and skills (the ‘internals’) have a greater appreciation of freedom of choice than people who believe that the outcome of their actions depends on external factors such as fate or destiny (the ‘externals’). We find some evidence in support of this hypothesis using a combination of all rounds of the World and European Values Surveys. A variable that measures freedom of choice and the locus of control is found to predict life satisfaction better than any other known factor such as health, employment, income, marriage or religion, across countries and within countries. We show that this variable is not a proxy of happiness and measures well both freedom of choice and the locus of control. ‘Internals’ are found to appreciate freedom of choice more than ‘externals’ and to be happier. These findings have important implications for individual utility, social welfare and public policies.     

Some empirical evidence on the ‘discouraged worker’ effect

This note produces empirical evidence on the existence of a significant ‘discouraged worker’ effect in US data–namely, on the tendency for groups of secondary workers to move in and out of the labor force with the business cycle, looking for jobs when these are available, while giving up job search during recessions — by focusing on the behavior of the ‘not in the labor force’ series, as well as of two of its segments (‘going to school’, and ‘keeping house’), at the business-cycle frequencies. Both in the aggregate, and for a number of age–sex groups, the series display a clear counter-cyclical pattern, thus lending support to the discouraged worker notion.     

Are environmental concerns drivers of innovation? Interpreting Portuguese innovation data to foster environmental foresight

The relationship between environmental concerns and innovation is analyzed in the context of Portuguese manufacturing firms, with the ultimate goal to foster measures of environmental foresight.Based on data from the Community Innovation Survey in Portugal, simple statistical tests, including Chi², t, and Levene's tests and contingency tables (adjusted standardized residuals), were used to study the relationship between firms' characteristics and the introduction of innovation aiming to reduce environmental damage. Environmental foresight is discussed based on three groups of variables that allow considering the industrial context that frames firm's actions, the economic performance of the firm and its innovation patterns.Results show that the development of innovation due to environmental concerns is positively associated with the firm's size and exports share, and negatively associated with its technological content. Moreover, it is shown that the firms that introduced innovations due to environmental concerns are likely to belong to an economic group, to have performed continuous R&D, or received public support. It is also shown that “lack of organizational flexibility” and “lack of receptivity by customers” are the two most relevant innovation barriers for these firms.     

Anonymous yes–no voting with abstention and multiple levels of approval

Symmetric (3,2) simple games serve as models for anonymous voting systems in which each voter may vote “yes,” abstain, or vote “no,” the outcome is “yes” or “no,” and all voters play interchangeable roles. The extension to symmetric (j,2) simple games, in which each voter chooses from among j ordered levels of approval, also models some natural decision rules, such as pass–fail grading systems. Each such game is determined by the set of (anonymous) minimal winning profiles. This makes it possible to count the possible systems, and the counts suggest some interesting patterns. In the (3,2) case, the approach yields a version of May's Theorem, classifying all possible anonymous voting rules with abstention in terms of quota functions. In contrast to the situation for ordinary simple games these results reveal that the class of simple games with 3 or more levels of approval remains large and varied, even after the imposition of symmetry.     

Technology Forecasting Activities in Japan

Japan started its development in science and technology later than other countries but was nevertheless quite successful. Many factors contributed to this success—and one of them was the adaptation of large foresight studies at the end of the 1960s. In Japan, the Science and Technology Agency (STA), among others, in 1971 started to conduct a large study on the future of science and technology. The Delphi method was one technique used for foresight activities. This was not considered a tool of prediction but an instrument to systematically look into the long-term future. Among the aims of this type of national activity is the identification of areas of strategic research and of generic technologies most likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits. Although many countries stopped their national foresight activities in the 1970s, the Japanese Delphi process continued and was applied every five years. In 1997, the sixth study was finished. Yet, Japanese technology policies are less consistent than is commonly believed and involve an assortment of policy measures and actors/agencies pragmatically devised to address diverse, ever-changing, and sometimes conflicting needs embedded in a broad range of issues. Forecasting results provide the “language” to communicate among Japanese actors in science, technology, and society.     

Driving forces of chemical risks for the European biodiversity

In the framework of the EU-funded research project ALARM (Assessing LArge-scale environmental Risks with tested Methods), an original method combining the DPSIR (driving forces–pressures–state–impacts–responses) framework and an analysis based on the distinction between the four spheres of sustainability (environmental, economic, social and political) has been developed. This paper presents the application of this method, called “the tetrahedral DPSIR” for the identification and analysis of driving forces of environmental chemicals risks for biodiversity, in Europe. The purpose of this methodology is to help reduce the pressures on biodiversity through modifying the driving forces behind them by offering scientific advice to policy makers. We frame our analysis in the context of the current policy, namely the implementation of REACH (Regulation on the Registration, Evaluation, and Authorization of CHemicals).     

Designing tax policy in federalist economies: An overview

The emerging economic federations of the European Union, Russia, and South Africa, along with the established federations in Australia, Canada, and the United States, confront the task of designing the institutions for federal fiscal policy. This paper reviews the literature on the design of tax policy in federalist economies. We conclude that taxation by lower level governments can lead to significant economic inefficiencies and inequities. The usual ‘assignment’ view of federalis recommends central government policies — for example, resident-based taxation or grants-in-aid — to correct these failures. These recommendations assume that the central government will act as a benevolent social planner. The ‘political economy’ view of federalism suggests that this assumption is in error and that additional federalist institutions must be considered. Alternative legislative structures and constitutional rules are considered.     

Asset ownership and market structure in oligopoly: Further results

How does the sale of assets from a small firm to a large firm affect the equilibrium price in oligopoly? Using the ‘cross-sectional differentiation’ technique introduced by Farrell and Shapiro (Rand Journal of Economics, 1990, 21, 275–292), I show that the equilibrium price rises if the common production technology is homogeneous of degree t, 0<t1.     

University education in future studies— a mark III critique: Part II

In 1970 an initial survey was made of futures courses at university level based on forty courses that could be located in the United States and Canada [Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 2, 133–148 (1970)]. This was replicated during 1970–1972 on approximately 200 North American courses and reported changes in the field at the Third World Future Research Conference in Bucharest, September 1972 (Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, 4, 387–407 [1973]). A third interation was funded by the World Institute Council and published in abstracted form with their permission here. The conclusions to be drawn from some six years of analysis of such courses, and drawn especially from the specifics of the 300 courses in the third iteration, can be lumped under five main headings: (1) All disciplines are to some degree finally alerted to the future implications of both their research and their teaching. (2) There remains still much “froth and nonsense” in futures courses. How to control this and encourage lively creativity is a complex problem-especially since the intellectual image of futurism today is not that high! (3) There appears to be no reliable sociocultural change theory backing future studies and there is precious little solid theory backing future studies and there is precious little solid theory in the field itself-offset by some progress in methodology. (4) Despite these strictures, if all future-oriented courses in American/Canadian universities were lumped together (future Studies per se; technology forecasting/assessment; policy sciences; peace studies; demography; environmental/ecology courses; general systems theory/system analysis/system dynamics; mathematical modelling and game theory; eschatology; utopian literature and science fiction; even black studies and women's courses) the total might approach 5000 and it is still growing, as is popular and academic understanding of the necessity “to plan ahead” in this period of human malaise. (5) Informal education of varied worth, from free swinging communes to middle management cram courses conducted by think-tanks, may turn out to be more useful in future-oriented advanced education than that which takes place in formal “walled” traditional institutions.