侵犯商业秘密罪若干问题探析

随着我国市场经济的不断发展,商业秘密作为企业的一种无形资产,越来越受到企业的重视。认定商业秘密应同时具备秘密性、价值性、实用性、保密性4个特征;侵犯商业秘密罪表现为4种行为方式;其罪过形式既包括故意,也包括过失;被害人遭受的“重大损失”,应指商业秘密被侵犯后给权利人造成的实际损失,既包括直接损失也包括间接损失。     

Population Aging and Housing Consumption： A Nonlinear Relationship in China

Mass migration of rural workers to cities will inevitably increase urban housing demand. However, the scale of vacant urban housing will increase in future as a result of the population aging and the rising number of empty nesters. Therefore, demographic transition may not only increase housing demand, but also increase housing supply. Using an overlapping generations model, the present paper investigates＇ the impact of demographic transition on housing consumption. We find that there is a nonlinear relationship between the elderly dependency ratio and housing consumption in China. With the deepening of population aging, housing consumption will increase; when the elderly dependency ratio reaches a turning point, housing consumption will decrease. The turning point of the nonlinear curve also depends on population mobility. A greater degree of population mobility will result in a delayed turning point. Furthermore, the turning point of the nonlinear curve will emerge when China＇s elderly dependency ratio reaches a value of 32 percent in 2025. This means that over the next decade, China should continue to increase the level of housing supply,     

Bold Stock Recommendations: Informative or Worthless?

We select a small set of recommendations that lie in the upper and lower tail of the empirical distribution of divergences between a recommendation, and the consensus over the window (−30, −1) days prior to that recommendation. We classify these extremely divergent recommendations as bold, and then subdivide them into informative bold recommendations that lead other analysts (leading-bold) and those that are ignored by other analysts (contra-bold) based on the consensus change in the 30 days after the announcement. We focus on the information conveyed to the market by these bold, leading-bold, and contra-bold recommendations through their effects on cumulative abnormal returns (CAR). We find that bold recommendations are not anticipated by market participants (CARs are negative before a bold buy and positive before a bold sell). The next finding is that the market responds strongly to both leading and contra-bold recommendations over the (0, +4)-day window and that these reactions are stronger than that to nonbold recommendations. In contrast, over the longer (0, +30)-day window, leading-bold recommendations earn additional returns whereas contra-bold ones reverse significantly due to lack of confirmation. The overall pattern is one of rational market reaction both in the short and long windows. We support the rationality of the market reaction by showing that the percentage of leading-bold recommendations exceeds that of contra-bold recommendations, and that these two types of recommendations cannot be separated using observable analyst characteristics such as experience or brokerage size.     

网络经济下中小企业理论探索

中国股市的财富效应很不显著。因此,期望通过“激活股市刺激消费”的政策主张目前难以奏效。笔者认为,要尽快培育和发挥股市刺激消费与促进经济增长的作用,必须把通过股市“富民”的方略置于重要位置。     

The long-term and intergenerational effects of early-life hunger experience on human capital and labor market outcomes

Using individual-level retrospective data on early-life hunger experience from China, we investigate the long-term effects of early nutritional deprivation on one's own and adult children's human capital and labor market outcomes. With an instrumental variable approach, we find that hunger experience lowers educational attainment and job quality of the first generation. But this negative impact on human capital does not transmit to the second generation, possibly due to parents' compensatory behavior of human capital investment and extra attention given to children. Our findings imply that the negative impact of non-extreme nutritional adversities on human capital and labor market outcomes are likely to decrease over generations.     

Expenditure responses to the COVID-19 pandemic

We examine how the COVID-19 contagion influences consumer expenditure patterns. We show that the consumption expenditure responses to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic are significantly different between the older and younger generations. We find that older adults spend less than the younger generation by at least 5% during the pandemic. In fact, those aged above 60 significantly decrease their spending even on food and drink products by 13%. We also find that older adults forgo shopping in favor of the younger generation. These responses might be due to the fear of COVID-19 infection (Immordino et al., 2022).     

Computable Stochastic Equilibrium Models and Their Use in Pension- and Ageing Research

This paper surveys recent advances in the field of computable general and partial equilibrium models dealing with pension issues that take into account various aspects of uncertainty. Whereas previous quantitative research with deterministic models solely focussed on efficiency losses due to labor market distortions from pay-as-you-go (paygo) financing, stochastic simulation models highlight the insurance effects of social security systems and allow to quantify the welfare consequences from myopic behavior. The results from these studies challenge the common wisdom about the cost and benefits of social security. While previous studies typically either recommended a move towards a more funded system or proposed a tight tax-benefit linkage, recent results from stochastic models indicate that welfare losses due to reduced insurance coverage compensate the gains due to improved labor market incentives. Consequently, paygo financing and progressive benefit formulas should not be eliminated on pure efficiency grounds. Current research tries to qualify whether this conclusion is robust in models with private insurance institutions and/or macroeconomic risks.     

Regional Trade Arrangements in Africa: Past Performance and the Way Forward

Abstract: Regional trade arrangements (RTAs) in Africa have been ineffective in promoting trade and foreign direct investment. Relatively high external trade barriers and low resource complementarity between member countries limit both intra‐ and extraregional trade. Small market size, poor transport facilities and high trading costs make it difficult for African countries to reap the potential benefits of RTAs. To increase regional trade and investment, African countries need to undertake more broad‐based liberalization and streamline existing RTAs, supported by improvements in infrastructure and trade facilitation. Early action to strengthen the domestic revenue base would help address concerns over revenue losses from trade liberalization.     

China's Competitive Performance: A Threat to East Asian Manufactured Exports?

We examine China's competitive threat to East Asian neighbors in the 1990s, benchmarking performance by technology and market. Market share losses are mainly in low-technology products; Japan is the most vulnerable market. China and its neighbors are raising high-technology exports in tandem: international production systems here are leading to complementarity rather than confrontation. In direct trade with its neighbors, China is acting as an engine of export growth, with imports outpacing exports. This may change, however, as China climbs the value chain and takes over activities that have driven East Asian export growth even within integrated production systems.     

Incremental Information Content of the Change in the Percent of Production Added to Inventory*

Abstract. Manufacturing firms can manipulate income by producing in excess of the quantity needed to meet current period demand, thereby allocating part of current period fixed manufacturing overhead costs from cost of goods sold to inventory. Because it is subject to manipulation, the component of earnings due to producing in excess of sales may be of lower quality than the remaining component of earnings. We investigate this possibility using a regression of security returns on unexpected income and an estimate of the change in percent of production added to inventory (CPAI). An analytical model indicates that CPAI determines the “earnings surprise” subject to manipulation by overproducing. Assuming the market recognizes this, the coefficient on CPAI should be negative because this low quality component must be deducted from the total “good news” conveyed by the change in reported earnings. Alternatively, CPAI may convey good or bad news to the market that is unrelated to the manipulation of current period earnings. Firms may increase the percent of production added to inventory in anticipation of high levels of future sales. In this case, the estimated coefficient on CPAI should be positive. Or, if the increase in the percent of production added to inventory reflects anticipation of a strike or an unexpected downturn in current sales, the estimated coefficient should be negative. Cross-sectional tests using a large sample of manufacturing firms indicate a significant positive relation between security returns and CPAI. This finding is consistent with market participants viewing CPAI as a leading indicator of firm performance. Although the results are most supportive of CPAI conveying good news, there is some evidence that CPAI is used by managers to smooth earnings and, for firms classified as smoothing earnings, there is weak evidence that the component of earnings related to CPAI is viewed by market participants to be of lower quality.     

Sentiment,Loss Firms,and Investor Expectations of Future Earnings*

This study investigates the mispricing of market‐wide investor sentiment by exploring the relation between sentiment and investor expectations of future earnings. Prior research argues that sentiment‐driven mispricing should be most pronounced for hard‐to‐value firms, such as those reporting losses (Baker and Wurgler 2006). Using investor expectations of future earnings, we provide empirical results consistent with this behavioral finance theory. We predict and find that investors perceive losses to be more (less) persistent during periods of low (high) sentiment; that (in contrast) investors perceive profit persistence to be lower (higher) during periods of low (high) sentiment; and that the effects appear stronger for loss firms relative to profit firms. We also document predictable cross‐sectional variation within losses (with the mispricing mitigated for losses associated with activities expected to generate future benefits), R&D, growth, large negative special items, and severe financial distress. Overall, our results document a new and important channel—investor expectations of future earnings—to explain sentiment‐driven mispricing.     

The impossibility of underemployment with more than one product market

We investigate the link between 'underemployment at all wages'and income feedback effects due to firms' activities in an economywith imperfect competition in the product markets. The sizeof income feedback effects negatively depends on the numberof product markets. We strengthen a previous result demonstratedin an overlapping generations model with inelastic price expectations:underemployment at all wages may only exist when the economycontains a single product market, i.e., when firms integrateall feedback effects in their programs.     

SAVING IS NEVER A CONSTRAINT ON INVESTMENT1

Saving is regarded in mainstream macroeconomics as a volitional relationship, like consumption. This paper argues that this view is incorrect. There is no independent volitional saving function. Since all goods produced are either consumption goods or investment goods, saving, defined as “income not consumed”, is the accounting record of investment spending. Changes in the definition of investment produce identical changes in saving, with no accompanying volitional change in saving behavior. “Saving” in economics should properly be termed “abstention” since it does not constitute transitive behavior. To understand saving behavior a Hicksian definition of income must be used, and capital gains and losses must be included in the definition of income. In modern capitalist economies most saving undertaken by agents is non‐volitional, and takes the form of permitting the market value of total net wealth to increase.     

日本天然气市场开发及其对我国的启示

天然气行业是典型的垄断行业，其价格受政府管制由来已久．20世纪90年代以来。日本逐步放松对天然气市场的管制，采取了更加灵活的市场开发政策，促进了天然气的利用。我国天然气生产和消费所占的比重较低，应当通过放松管制加快天然气市场开发的步伐。     

Boom and Bust Cycle of the Stock Market, and Economic Growth in a Vintage Capital Model

We construct a growth model of overlapping generations with vintage capital. There exists an equilibrium that converges to the balanced growth path through endogenous fluctuations of investment, consumption, and output in terms of the growth rate. When the technological change arrives and a rise in productivity is embodied only in newly invested capital, the economy converges to a new balanced growth path with a higher growth rate of output, but when we interpret the price of existing old capital as the stock market capitalization, the rise in productivity is accompanied by an initial decline in the stock market. Oscillatory equilibria are supported as perfect-foresight equilibria in the present framework with finitely lived agents and capital. Any oscillatory equilibrium is associated with the regime switch from an economy with both young and old capital in use into one with only old capital in use.     

对中国应对全球金融危机策略的几点思考

这一波百年罕见的世界金融风暴导致中国经济急剧下滑，如果仍然按传统的宏观调控思路去刺激经济，必将导致更大的经济损失，并可能引发社会性的问题。因此，正确的宏观调控思路是：先保民生，拉动消费，再搞投资建设。在经济衰退期，需要谨慎地动用国内资源，谨慎地采取刺激经济的手段，不应盲目地消耗国民储蓄，应尽量减少浪费性的投资拉动，在严冬里保存体力。应花大气力解决产能过剩的问题，调整贫富差距，调整经济结构，解决不均衡发展问题。     

Spillovers in Exchange Rates and the Effects of Global Shocks on Emerging Market Currencies

This paper provides an investigation into the spillover effects of exchange rate returns and volatility for developed and emerging market currencies, using data from 1997 to 2011. The results suggest that spillovers in exchange rate returns have increased steadily over time, in moderate reaction to economic events. In contrast, spillovers in total observed volatility (measured by squared returns) react more strongly to economic events, and this transmission has remained at a relatively high level since the global financial crisis. Furthermore, over the course of time, global shocks would appear to account for a larger proportion of aggregate exchange rate volatility (and the relative importance of domestic shocks has declined). The paper also considers whether the increase in volatility spillover is due to sudden shocks, or whether it is due to changes in the stochastic trend of the underlying volatility process. The results suggests that in most cases, this increase is due to sudden shocks, however, in certain instances country‐specific events may perpetuate changes to the trend of the underlying volatility spillover.     

The political economy of agrarian reform in Yucatán, Mexico

Fundamental land tenure reform in Yucatán has been characterized by declining productivity in the henequén ejidos (collectives), and the Banco Rural — which supervises and finances the ejidos — has sustained chronic, burgeoning operational losses. Several related causes account for the economic failure of the Reforma Agraria: (1) the disruption of the spatial unity and organizational integrity of the expropriated agroindustrial estates, (2) the perverse incentive structure facing the ejidatarios, the presumed ‘owners’ of the collective ejidos, (3) the debilitating corruption that has characterized the official bank's management of the ejidos, (4) the primacy of the federal government's and the official party's political/ social goals in the state over economic/market considerations.     

ALCOHOL TAXES VS. PREVENTATIVE MEASURES: A THEORETICAL NOTE

The paper assumes that damages in the form of deaths and traumatic injuries caused by alcohol‐related road accidents constitute a significant part of the negative externalities associated with alcohol consumption. It then compares the conventional Pigouvian solution with the impact that a sufficiently high penalty on drunken driving and better law enforcement may have. It is hypothesised that these measures may cause heavy drinkers either to cut back on their consumption of alcohol on occasions when they have to drive a vehicle or to maintain their consumption levels but refrain from driving. The welfare losses are much lower for each of these scenarios and are also carried specifically by those responsible for the negative externality. An attempt is also made to consider how individuals may respond to higher penalties and/or a more effective law enforcement system.     

Agenda for the Housing Market

The housing market is the theme of the Reports to the 2008 Annual Meeting of the Royal Netherlands Economic Association. Current housing market policies in the Netherlands generate substantial welfare losses. The direct and indirect subsidies on housing distort the housing market, house moving behaviour, the labour market and the asset portfolio of households. The welfare loss is estimated at more than 6 billion euro per year. In addition, physical planning restrictions cost at least 3 billion euro per year, a price which is paid for the conservation of open space and nature, especially in the Green Heart of the Randstad. Developments on the housing market over the last fifteen years and the sizeable welfare losses from current policies are sufficient reason to develop an agenda for reform. The Reports suggest several elements for such an agenda, including a gradual reduction of housing subsidies in the owner–occupier sector as well as in the rental sector, an easier land policy to better meet the qualitative housing needs of the population, and an extension of the social tasks for the housing societies.