Macroeconomic factors and Japan's industry risk

We propose a simple risk indicator based on the cross-sectional distribution of cash flows in a given industry. The indicator is applied to a sample of Japanese industry sectors over the period 1970–2005. The results indicate a slightly lower risk level in domestic-oriented industries relative to industries dependent on export markets. Consistent with evidence based on stock returns and corporate bond yields, we find that risk in domestic-oriented industries is more sensitive to GDP growth, while risk in export-oriented industries is more sensitive to an appreciation in the Japanese currency. There is also evidence that interest rate spreads have a more significant effect on the riskiness of capital-intensive industries.     

Investment efficiency,state-owned enterprises and privatisation: Evidence from Viet Nam in Transition

Our research firstly tests the difference in investment efficiency between state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and private firms and secondly evaluates the effect of privatisation and equitisation policies on the investment efficiency of former state owned enterprises (SOEs). We use a novel dataset from Viet Nam which covers large and non-listed SMEs across construction, manufacturing, and service sectors. Our methodology uses a structural model to test the relationship between Tobin's Q and capital spending. While evident differences in investment efficiency are found across heterogeneous groups of private firms (size, industry, financially constrained and location), we find no evidence of investment spending being linked to marginal returns by SOEs across all sectors and size classes. However, former SOEs that have been privatised and equitized with a minority state shareholding display positive links between Q and investment. In fact, the link is stronger for these firms than for private firms. Differences are also evident across size and sector highlighting that the method of divestment chosen by government shareholders has a differential impact on efficiency across groups of firms and industries.     

Does the worldwide shift of FDI from manufacturing to services accelerate economic growth? A GMM estimation study

We examine the effect of manufacturing and service FDI (foreign direct investment) on their own sector growth, the spillover to the other sectors and the overall economy in host countries. We identify significant sectoral and inter-industry spillover effects with various data classifications and types of FDI flows. Evidence reveals that growth effect of manufacturing FDI operates by stimulating activity in its own (manufacturing) sector and is prevalent in Latin America-Caribbean, in Europe-Central Asia, middle to low-income countries and economies with large industry share. A surge of service FDI is likely to spur growth in service industries but hurt activity in manufacturing industries. Financial service FDI enhances growth in South-East Asia and the Pacific, high income countries and service-based economies by stimulating activity in both manufacturing and service sectors. However, nonfinancial service FDI drains resources and hurts manufacturing industry in the same group of countries. We conclude that a shift from manufacturing to service FDI is likely to lead to deindustrialization in certain regions and types of economies if this shift is spearheaded by nonfinancial FDI.     

Econometric measures of connectedness and systemic risk in the finance and insurance sectors

We propose several econometric measures of connectedness based on principal-components analysis and Granger-causality networks, and apply them to the monthly returns of hedge funds, banks, broker/dealers, and insurance companies. We find that all four sectors have become highly interrelated over the past decade, likely increasing the level of systemic risk in the finance and insurance industries through a complex and time-varying network of relationships. These measures can also identify and quantify financial crisis periods, and seem to contain predictive power in out-of-sample tests. Our results show an asymmetry in the degree of connectedness among the four sectors, with banks playing a much more important role in transmitting shocks than other financial institutions.     

From state to private ownership: Issues from strategic industries

This paper investigates the effects of privatization for a panel of 189 firms from strategic industries headquartered in 39 countries, and privatized between 1984 and 2002. Strategic firms can hardly be compared to manufacturing or competitive industries as they are generally under state monopoly, and involve specific issues such as regulation, political and institutional constraints. We examine the change in ownership and postprivatization means of control by the government, and assess whether positive changes in performance obtain in these particular industries that include firms from the financial, mining, steel, telecommunications, transportation, utilities, and oil sectors. We document that governments continue to exert influence on former state-owned firms after three years by retaining golden shares and/or appointing politicians to key positions in the firm. Our multivariate results reveal a negative effect of state ownership on profitability and operating efficiency, which the presence of a sound institutional and political environment moderates.     

资本计量方法改革、商业银行风险偏好与信贷配置

为提高银行业风险管理水平与信贷配置效率,监管部门于2014年开展了资本管理高级方法的试点工作。本文基于上市银行2010至2016年的微观数据,与银监会公布的行业信贷风险进行匹配,采用双重差分和三重差分法,实证分析前述改革如何影响试点银行的风险偏好和信贷调配。研究发现,在资本管理高级方法实施后:(1)试点银行显著降低了风险加权资产的规模;(2)试点银行风险偏好的变化存在非线性的特征,在调减高风险行业贷款的同时,并未显著增加最安全行业的贷款,而是增加了风险略高行业的贷款,体现出试点银行对风险与收益的权衡;(3)进一步将行业划分为“虚”与“实”,研究发现试点银行减少了房地产业(“虚”)、制造业(“实”)和建筑业(“实”)贷款,显著增加了金融业(“虚”)贷款。本文研究不仅丰富了资本监管方面的文献,也对金融支持供给侧结构性改革具有启示意义。     

Can Industrial Restructuring Significantly Reduce Energy Consumption? Evidence from China

This article uses China’s input–output (I-O) tables in 2002, 2007, and 2012 to estimate the real energy consumption of each sector after the I-O adjustment. The relationship between the sectors is further analyzed using the utility analysis method based on ecological network analysis. The empirical results show that although the traditional energy-intensive industries are the major energy-consuming sectors from a direct energy consumption perspective, large energy consumption by energy-intensive industries is transferred to downstream industries through intermediate products after the I-O adjustment. Specifically, the building industry and service sector are the sectors with the highest real energy consumption. With the upgrading and optimization of the industrial structure, the proportion of energy-intensive sectors in China is declining. However, the development of the service sector and infrastructure construction still requires large intermediate inputs. Thus, industrial restructuring cannot significantly reduce China’s total energy consumption.     

The Industry Life Cycle,Acquisitions and Investment: Does Firm Organization Matter?

We examine the effect of industry life‐cycle stages on within‐industry acquisitions and capital expenditures by conglomerates and single‐segment firms controlling for endogeneity of organizational form. We find greater differences in acquisitions than in capital expenditures, which are similar across organizational types. In particular, 36% of the growth recorded by conglomerate segments in growth industries comes from acquisitions, versus 9% for single‐segment firms. In growth industries, the effect of financial dependence on acquisitions and plant openings is mitigated for conglomerate firms. Plants acquired by conglomerate firms increase in productivity. The results suggest that organizational forms' comparative advantages differ across industry conditions.     

The economics of bank privatization

This paper surveys the empirical literature examining bank privatization. We begin by documenting the extent of, theoretical rationale for, and measured performance of state-owned banks around the world, and then assess why many governments have chosen to privatize their often very large state-owned banking sectors. The empirical evidence clearly shows that state-owned banks are less efficient than privately owned banks, and that state domination of banking imposes increasingly severe penalties on those countries with the largest state banking sectors. On the other hand, there is little in the empirical record to suggest that privatization alone transforms the efficiency of divested banks, especially when these are only partially privatized. Privatization generally improves performance, but by far less than is typically observed in studies of non-financial industries. An increasingly common outcome of large-scale bank privatization programs is foreign ownership of many nations’ banking sector, which evidence suggests is usually positive in an economic sense, but problematic politically.     

Machine learning for US cross-industry return predictability under information uncertainty

This paper investigates the association between industry information uncertainty and cross-industry return predictability using machine learning in a general predictive regression framework. We show that controlling for post-selection inference and performing multiple tests improves the in-sample predictive performance of cross-industry return predictability in industries characterized by high uncertainty. Ordinary least squares post-least absolute shrinkage and selection operator models incorporating lagged industry information uncertainty for the financial and commodity industries are critical to improving prediction performance. Furthermore, in-sample industry return forecasts establish heterogeneous predictability over US industries, in which excess returns are more predictable in sectors with medium or low uncertainty.     

Measuring What Matters: Industry Specificity Helps Companies and Investors Gain Traction on Sustainability

Financial analysts interpret the performance of companies and their securities through an industry lens. Just as an industry approach is critical in financial analysis, it's also critical in helping investors evaluate sustainability performance, since sustainability issues differ from one industry to the next—in large because of differences in how companies use natural and other social resources when bringing their goods and services to market, and how they impact society and the environment in the process. The Sustainability Accounting Standards Board (SASB) was created in 2012 to deliver a full set of sustainability accounting standards that can be used to guide industry‐specific corporate sustainability disclosure to the capital markets. SASB has now issued provisional standards for 79 industries, thereby enabling companies and investors for the first time to identify patterns of sustainability risks and opportunities both across and within industries. Although high‐level issues such as climate change, product safety, and resource intensity and scarcity have material impacts across a variety of sectors, those impacts often vary greatly from one industry to the next. Thus, although the risk may be ubiquitous, it is also differentiated to the point that each industry has its own distinct sustainability profile. Understanding these unique profiles can help companies better manage the issues that are most likely to present material risks to their industries.     

Trade and Growth in the New Member States: The Role of Global Value Chains

We analyze the determinants of value-added and productivity growth of New Member States in the period between 1995 and 2009. We show that in the analyzed countries, exports contributed to roughly 30% to over 40% of the overall growth of GDP while the contribution of the domestic component varied from negative to over 60%. We show that in the most important export manufacturing industries of the NMS, the growth in exported value added was substantial, while the growth of the domestic component of GDP was mostly due to the growth in services. We associate growth of sectoral productivity with the foreign direct investment and exporting but, more importantly, with the position of a sector/country in the global value chains. We show that sectors that have imported intermediate goods have experienced higher productivity growth. Moreover, faster productivity growth was found in sectors further away from the final demand and in sectors exporting intermediate goods.     

The crowding-out effect of zombie companies on fixed asset investment: Evidence from China

This paper attempts to investigate the relationship between zombie companies and normal companies' fixed asset investment. Our empirical research finds that zombies will crowd out the fixed asset investment of normal companies, and this result remains stable under many robustness tests. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the crowding-out effect mainly exists in non-SOEs, companies with small tax contributions, and companies in light industries, while SOEs, companies with large tax contributions, and heavy industrial sectors are unaffected by zombies. It's also shown that zombie companies crowd out fixed asset investment by increasing financing constraints, raising financing costs and destroying the industry's competitive environment. We further find that improving the regional institutional environment can alleviate zombies' crowding-out effect. Overall, our paper enriches the research on zombie companies' negative impact on normal companies and emphasizes the importance of strengthening the construction of the institutional environment.     

Decomposing industry leverage: The special cases of real estate investment trusts and technology & hardware companies

Different industries exhibit significantly different leverage; companies in the real estate investment trust (REIT) and technology/hardware sectors are extreme examples. In the United States, the leverage ratio is twice as high for REITs (50%) as compared to non-real-estate firms (around 25%), and the technology/hardware sector has the lowest ratio (around 17%). We theoretically and empirically analyze their differences. By decomposing the difference into three channels, we find that the industry-specific channel explains around 67% for REITs and 68% for technology/hardware firms; the value-based channel is mostly responsible for the remaining portion. Taking the nonlinear influences of extreme values into account, the relevance of the industry-specific channel is considerably reduced.     

Temperature and Growth: A Panel Analysis of the United States

We document that seasonal temperatures have significant and systematic effects on the U.S. economy, both at the aggregate level and across a wide cross section of economic sectors. This effect is particularly strong for the summer: a F increase in the average summer temperature is associated with a reduction in the annual growth rate of state‐level output of 0.15 to 0.25 percentage points. We combine our estimates with projected increases in seasonal temperatures and find that rising temperatures could reduce U.S. economic growth by up to one‐third over the next century.     

Improving performance of corporate rating prediction models by reducing financial ratio heterogeneity

We introduce a new approach to improve the performance of rating prediction models for multinational corporations. In this segment, the low number of defaults poses a challenge, as it prevents rating models to be constructed for individual industry sectors or regions. We show that reducing group-level heterogeneity in financial ratios results in a rating prediction model with better performance than both unadjusted models and models adjusted by including industry dummies or other simpler procedures. Our approach fills a gap in cases where a limited dataset does not permit the construction of separate models for individual industries or regions.     

Financial inclusion and gross capital formation: A sectoral analysis approach for the MENA region and EMs

Most Middle East and North Africa (MENA) governments have firmly committed to financial inclusion as part of a progressive agenda. In this, their objective is to improve the allocation of resources across small and medium firms. Indeed, empirical literature has quantitatively shown that financial inclusion improves nations' aggregate measures of economic success such as growth or inequality. But we know very little of its effects on sectoral variates. This paper contributes to the literature by estimating and comparing the effects of financial inclusion on the relative size of gross capital formation of low-tech sectors in the MENA region. We use a panel of 3-digit level sectoral data on approximately 34 manufacturing industries of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) for eleven MENA countries and twelve emerging markets (EMs) within the period 2005–2016. The paper focuses in four measures of financial inclusion commonly used in the literature of development: size of commercial bank branches, ATMs, borrowers, and depositors. The results suggest that financial inclusion in MENA has a positive, statistically significant effect on the size of gross capital formation in the low R&D-intensity industries. Thus, policy considerations can be directed towards expanding financial services to other low-tech industries including fabricated metal products and to the medium tech division including repair and installation of machinery and equipment industries. This policy will have greater impact on gross capital formation and, thereby, economic growth.     

The Association of R&D and Capital Expenditures with Subsequent Earnings Variability

Abstract:  We estimate the association of investments in R&D and in physical assets (CAPEX) with subsequent earnings variability. We estimate these relations in different time periods and across industries. We find that R&D contributes to subsequent earnings variability more than CAPEX only in relative R&D-intensive industries – industries in which R&D is relatively more intensive than physical capital. In physical assets-intensive industries, we do not find similar relations. The findings suggest that with respect to subsequent earnings variability, fundamental differences between investment information about R&D and CAPEX exist. However, they are mainly noticeable in firms that operate in relatively R&D-intensive industries. The evidence also suggests there was a shift in the relations between R&D and CAPEX over time. Our findings contribute to the debate on accounting for R&D expenditures.     

Research on China's financial systemic risk contagion under jump and heavy-tailed risk

To accurately measure the dynamic characteristics of systemic risk contagion under the impact of extreme financial events, we construct a research framework that analyzes the contagion dynamics of systemic risk under extreme risk impact from the perspectives of both time and space. Based on the macro-jump CCA method, this paper extracts the heterogeneous volatility sequence of financial industries considering the thick tail of the distribution of financial assets returns. Then, the dynamic variation of systemic risk in the financial sectors is characterized from the time dimension. The volatility spillover network method is used to examine the spillover contagion of systemic risk among financial system sectors from the spatial dimension. Empirical studies have found that when considering the risk contagion level, the capital market service sector plays a risk‑leading role, followed by the currency service sector and the insurance sector. The measurement indicators that consider the jump risk and the tail risk have good early warning effects on extreme financial events. Seen from the spatial direction of risk spillover, the real estate sector exhibits the most obvious risk spillover effect on other sectors and can be regarded as the source of systemic risk, which suggests differentiated regulation.     

Sectorial differences in corporate financial behavior: an international survey

This survey-based research deals with sectorial differences in terms of three main corporate finance policies: investment, financing and dividend. We used a multinational survey that was distributed to the chief financial officers in five countries: the US, the UK, Germany, Canada and Japan. We found statistically significant differences between the nine sectors examined in terms of all the three major financial policies. These differences may be due to the following: (1) the unique financial needs and operating conditions of each sector and (2) the imitation effect according to which firms imitate the financial behavior of other firms in their sector. We found that the use of established investment appraisal techniques is most common in the construction sector and least common in the technology sector. The IRR is the most frequently used investment appraisal technique for the entire survey sample, especially in the communication sector; however, it is rarely used in the technology sector. The technology sector has the lowest level of financial leveraging, while the finance sector has the highest level. A constant sum per share is the most common dividend policy in the following sectors: retail and wholesale, services, manufacturing and transport. On the other hand, construction, energy, communication and technology sectors are characterized by a high percentage of firms that do not pay dividends at all.