松货币紧财政:我国宏观经济政策组合的现实选择

财政政策和货币政策必须合理搭配,方可以发挥其政策效应.当前我国的经济运行已经出现重大转折,经济发展的中期上升趋势已经确立,原有行之有效的财政和货币政策组合也因此难以适应实际需要,必须及时进行相应的调整.     

A risk assessment model for banks

Summary. This paper proposes a model to assess risk for banks. Its main innovation is to incorporate endogenous interaction among banks, where the actual risk an individual bank bears also depends on its interaction with other banks and investors. We develop a two-period general equilibrium model with three active heterogeneous banks, incomplete markets, and endogenous default. The model is calibrated against UK banking data and therefore can be implemented as a risk assessment tool for regulators and central banks. We address the impact of monetary and regulatory policy, credit and capital shocks in the real and financial sectors.We are grateful to Lea Zicchino, an anonymous referee, seminar participants at the Bank of England, and the third Conference in Research in Economic Theory and Econometrics, Syros, for helpful comments. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Bank of England.This revised version was published online in January 2005 with corrections to the Cover date.     

What measure of inflation should a developing country central bank target?

In closed or open economy models with complete markets, targeting core inflation enables monetary policy to maximize welfare by replicating the flexible price equilibrium. We analyze this result in the context of developing economies, where a large proportion of households are credit constrained and the share of food expenditures in total consumption expenditures is high. We develop an open economy model with incomplete financial markets to show that headline inflation targeting improves welfare outcomes. We also compute the optimal price index, which includes a positive weight on food prices but, unlike headline inflation, assigns zero weight to import prices.     

Optimal money and debt management: Liquidity provision vs tax smoothing

Conventional wisdom on public debt management says that liquidity demand should be satiated and that tax rates should be smoothed. Conflicts between the two can arise when government bonds provide liquidity. Smoothing taxes causes greater variability in fiscal balances, and therefore in the supply of government liabilities. When prices are flexible, and can jump to absorb fiscal shocks, the tradeoff between liquidity provision and tax smoothing is eased; when they conflict, optimal policy subordinates tax smoothing to satiating liquidity demand. When price fluctuations impose real costs, conflicts necessarily arise and optimal policy gives primacy to neither goal.     

中央银行货币政策工具变化评析

近年来,在全球经济一体化进程快速发展的背景下,以美国为代表的发达国家受次级抵押贷款危机影响,金融机构面临短期流动性不足的问题;以中国、韩国和印度为代表的新兴市场国家则出现流动性过剩的状况。为应对经济金融领域不断出现的新情况、新问题,保持中央银行货币政策的主动性和有效性,发达国家在充分运用传统货币政策工具的同时,适时引入了新的投放流动性的工具;新兴市场国家则不断拓展收回流动性的工具组合。本文简要分析了近来各国央行调整货币政策工具的背景情况,全面总结了发达国家及新兴市场国家货币政策工具变化的基本特点,并提出了央行货币政策工具调整中值得关注的问题。     

Credit frictions and the comovement between durable and non-durable consumption

Frictions in lending between households have been proposed as a solution to the difficulties new-Keynesian models have in predicting a decline in both durable and non-durable consumption following a monetary tightening. By revisiting a standard new-Keynesian framework with collateral constraints, it is shown that the presence of such credit frictions in fact makes it more difficult to generate the joint decline. The intuitive reasons behind this result are provided, which should be helpful in developing models that are more successful in generating a positive comovement between durables and non-durables.     

论我国商业银行金融租赁业务解禁后的发展

金融租赁与商业银行联系紧密,它是商业银行最重要的中间业务之一。在我国,商业银行的金融租赁业务由于政策所限,其作用和意义远未被充分重视。2007年1月,我国商业银行的金融租赁业务重新解禁。这对于我国金融租赁行业和银行业的创新发展具有重要的现实意义,但是,商业银行开展金融租赁业务也面临着种种问题和风险。因此,本文在探讨商业银行开展金融租赁业务的意义和可行性同时,也着重分析了其所要面临的主要障碍,并提出了相应的对策性建议。     

Reform or resist? The tale of two fiscal reforms in Spain after the crisis

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the two main fiscal reforms that Spain adopted after the global financial crisis: the law on budget stability (2012) and the creation of the country’s first independent fiscal institution: AIReF (2013). The analysis suggests that the Spanish government adopted an ambivalent strategy, displaying tendencies both to reform but also to resist by trying to keep or regain fiscal decision power for itself.     

朝鲜地下钱庄对吉林省边境地区金融稳定的影响

本文介绍了朝鲜地下钱庄的基本情况、迅速发展原因以及对我省边境地区金融稳定的影响,并有针对性地提出相应的对策建议。     

我国金融运行状况和未来改革与发展策略

本文总结了中国金融业改革与发展的成绩和经验,指出在后危机时期,金融业面临的机遇和挑战。今后将进一步深化金融改革和扩大开放,充分发挥市场在金融资源配置中的基础性作用,促进国民经济又好又快地发展。