中国的绿色政策与就业:存在双重红利吗?

减排与就业的"双重红利假说"认为:在征收碳税的同时减少所得税,能够实现减少碳排放与增加就业的双重红利。现实中,很多欧洲国家通过改变税收扭曲,成功地获得了"双重红利效应"。同样,中国也面临着开征碳税以及减少个人所得税的现实问题。那么,通过税收结构调整,中国能否创造出类似于欧洲国家的就业"双重红利"是一个非常值得探讨的问题。本文在VAR模型的基础上,模拟了中国的就业双重红利问题。最终发现:征收10元/吨的碳税对两部门的产出和就业影响并不显著;如果采取征收碳税并减少所得税的"中性"绿色税收政策将会促进中国低碳部门的产出增长;但至少到目前为止,与发达国家的经验事实不同,中国还难以在短期内获得就业的"双重红利"。然而,在节能减排和经济结构调整的双重压力下,改革税收体系以促进中国低碳经济的发展也不失为一种次优的选择。     

基于可计算的一般均衡模型的我国碳税政策“双重红利”研究

建立了分析我国减少二氧化碳排放而征收碳税的可计算的一般均衡模型,分析碳税政策的双重红利。结果显示:为减少二氧化碳排放而征收碳税,对社会经济变量将造成一定的负面影响。保持财政中性,在征收碳税的时候,减少居民或者企业间接税,都可以在减少二氧化碳排放量的同时提高社会福利或者保持社会福利变化不大,实现碳税的双重红利。但是在保持财政中性,在征收碳税的同时减少企业所得税,虽然减少了二氧化碳排放量,居民的社会福利却有了更大程度的下降。     

环境规制与就业的双重红利适用于中国现阶段吗?——基于省际面板数据的经验分析

中国能否创造出类似发达国家的环境规制与就业的双重红利是一个值得探讨的问题,本文通过污染投入规制弹性比较环境规制对就业规模效应和替代效应的大小进行理论分析,并以中国省际面板数据进行实证检验。研究结论表明:环境规制与就业之间呈U型关系,即跨过了U型曲线的拐点就可以实现环境规制与就业的双重红利。现阶段,中国平均环境规制强度仍处于U型曲线的下降阶段,东、中、西地区则分别处于拐点的右侧、附近、左侧。同时,产业结构调整会使U型曲线向左上方移动,即可以在较低的环境规制强度下越过拐点并在同等环境规制强度下达到更高的就业水平。因此,推进产业结构调整,制定合理的环境规制水平,并且分地区实施差异性环境政策对于实现环境规制与就业的双重红利具有重要意义。     

中国现有税制下“双重红利”的适用性分析

文章阐述了“双重红利”各阶段理论研究的假设，研究观点及政策导向，建立了一个基本的“双重红利”理论发展框架。并与中国国情结合，分析了“双重红利”理论在中国的适用性及其政策指导意义。     

我国征收生态税的双重红利效应实证研究

自“庇古税”提出以来,税收手段已成为通过调控宏观经济来约束企业的排污行为,从而达到保护环境目的的一种重要手段。本文利用2006—2018年的面板数据,基于EBM模型与GML指数测算出绿色全要素生产率（GTFP）,在此基础上研究生态税收能否实现“绿色红利”和“蓝色红利”。研究发现：征收生态税具有一定的污染减排效应,但生态税收处于0.4666～0.7228区间内才能带动经济增长质量的提升,产生预期的“蓝色红利”。为了更好地实现“双重红利”,应不断推进生态文明制度改革、增加有效人力资本供给、加快生态领域技术创新、调整和优化产业结构,构建完整的生态税收体系。     

“双重红利”目标下我国环境保护税改革的路径

我国现行环境税对环境改善存在较大的实现空间,建立成熟的环境税税制不可能一蹴而就,应分阶段实施、分步骤推进。近期应以"绿色红利"作为政策导向,尽快开征环境保护税;中期应使环境保护税税制改革在实现"绿色红利"的同时,对环境保护税税制进行结构性调整;长期看,环境保护税改革最终应实现"绿色红利"与"就业红利"的双重目标。     

基于"双重红利"假说视角的环境税效应分析

随着资源和环境问题越来越严峻,20世纪90年代以来,一些发达国家尤其是OECD国家基于环境税＂双重红利＂假说纷纷进行了税制改革。基于＂双重红利＂假说视角,着重对环境税的分配效应和就业效应进行了理论和实证结果分析,最后得出相关结论。     

环境税“双重红利”与我国环保税制改革取向

长期以来,众多学者围绕环境税"双重红利"存在与否展开争论。在我国当前提倡生态文明建设的大背景下,环境税"双重红利"假说对于政策制定者具有吸引力。虽然理论界对"双重红利"并没有形成普遍的共识,但其思想内核对我国环保税制改革取向有重要启示意义。如何整合现有税制,减少"税收相互作用效应"的负面影响,使环境税设计既能体现环境保护、又能提高税制效率、促进经济发展是当前关注的焦点。本文立足于国情,探索适合我国环境税制改革的路径。     

股息红利双重征税的税收处理问题

围绕股息红利双重征税的税收处理问题,本文首先分析了股息红利双重征税税收处理的理论模式,并对各种模式的优缺点进行了比较。随后,以OECD成员国为样本系统考察了各国所采取的股息红利双重征税税收处理办法,分析了它们的演变过程、目前状态和未来的发展趋势。在此基础上,考察了中国现行股息红利双重征税的税收处理办法,并从理论与实践的结合上,分析了它的利弊得失,明确了它的发展方向。     

Double Dividend with Involuntary Unemployment: Efficiency and Intergenerational Equity

This paper analyzes the double dividend and distributional issues within an overlapping generations model framework with involuntary unemployment. We characterize the necessary conditions needed to obtain a double dividend, when the revenue of the environmental tax is recycled by a variation of the labor tax rate. We show that an employment dividend may occur without any efficiency dividend and that the young generation is not always harmed by the fiscal reform, even without any intergenerational transfers. Therefore, three dividends (environmental, efficiency and intergenerational equity) can occur simultaneously.     

On the Double Dividend under Imperfect Competition

We investigate whether, and under which conditions, a revenue-neutral environmental tax reform may yield an employment double dividend, i.e., an improvement of environmental quality and an increase in aggregate employment. Using a model with two market imperfections – a rigid real wage and imperfect competition in one industry – we show that an employment dividend is plausibly obtained. However, for countries where labor taxes are high and households spend a large share of their income in favor of environmentally harmful consumption goods a double dividend can nevertheless not be obtained, for under these conditions environmental quality deteriorates.     

Economic Impacts of the 1997 EU Energy Tax: Simulations with Three EU-Wide Models

In March 1997 the European Commission adopted aproposal that increases existing minimum levels oftaxation on mineral oils by around 10 to 25% andintroduces excises for other energy products. Thispaper analyses the macroeconomic impacts of theproposal. It employs three models: HERMES, GEM-E3, andE3ME. All models confirm that the proposal will havepositive macroeconomic impacts when the tax revenuesare used to reduce social security contributions paidby employers. For the EU as a whole, both GDP andemployment are expected to be higher and CO₂emissions are 0.9 to 1.6 percent lower. The positiveEU-wide effects can be observed in practically allmember states. The sector impacts are modest, with theenergy sector expected to face the most negativeimpacts. Differences between model results are due tothe model type (general equilibrium ormacro-econometric), the EU countries covered and theway tax exemptions were handled. Crucial assumptionsto obtain the ``double dividend' are the modelling ofthe labour market and the impacts on EU externaltrade. The sensitivity of the results for the use oftax revenues, tax exemptions and tax rate increases isassessed.     

Reflections on the Double Dividend Debate

We survey the history of carbon taxation, the range of market-based instruments (MBIs) of environmental control, and the state of the double dividend debate, in order to suggest directions for future research into MBIs. Returning MBI revenues as lower distortionary taxes rather than as lump sums raises aggregate welfare, but we favour MBIs which raise little or no revenue, for reasons of political acceptability to interest groups. At the same time, the overall case for any environmental improvement is weaker because of general equilibrium interactions with prior distortionary taxes. Research seems most necessary on quantifying the efficiency benefits of market control of heterogeneous polluters, the benefits of environmental improvement, the tax interaction effect, and the various information costs of an MBI, all on a case-by-case basis for different pollutants and places.     

国外绿色税收体系的政策效果及其对我国的启示

通过建立绿色税收体系,将环境因素引入传统的税收体系中,通过一系列的税收调节作用,使微观经济主体改变落后的生产和消费方式,使其达到与社会可持续发展目标相一致,从而达到保护自然环境的目的。绿色税收立足生态与经济协调发展,不仅仅要求事后的调节,更重要是利用税收对环境、生态的保护进行事前的引导和调控。     

我国碳税征收效应分析及实施措施

在对碳排放权和碳税征收比较分析基础上,探讨了碳税征收所产生的经济效应、收入分配及福利效应、环境效应,并结合我国现在的实际情况,从碳税征收对象、征税标的、碳税税率制定、碳税减免、碳税收入使用几个方面提出了实施碳税征收的建议。     

Nonseparable Utility and the Double Dividend Debate: Reconsidering the Tax-Interaction Effect

The literature on the use of environmental taxes inthe presence of distortionary (labor) taxes warns thata partial-equilibrium Pigouvian tax analysis is notappropriate because increasing the price of dirtygoods can futher aggravate the prexisting distortions. This argument is most frequently made assuming thatlabor is taxed to meet a fixed revenue requirement.When a dirty good is also taxed, others argue thatthis lowers workers' real wages, causing people toreduce their labor supply below its already suboptimallevel, aggravating labor market distortions. However,most papers ignore the effect that a cleanerenvironment can have on labor supply. That is, mostpast work has assumed that the quality of theenvironment is weakly separable in the utilityfunction. We argue that a cleaner environment canincrease labor supply, at least partially offsettingany incentive for workers to decrease their laborsupply. Further, we show explicitly how relaxing theseparability assumption affects the standardresults.     

Green fiscal reform and employment: A survey

In the European debate an increase in employment is generally regarded as an important extra-dividend-in addition to improved environmental quality-from environmental taxes. The scope of this paper is to evaluate, going through the existing empirical literature, if-and to what degree-this result could be achieved through a green fiscal reform. A further goal of this paper is to assess which taxes are more efficient in terms of employment-creation when they are utilized for recycling back to the economy the revenue flowing from environmental taxes. This kind of exercise is largely different from the theoretical analysis of the double dividend issue. A large quantity of literature has grown during the recent years according to this approach, but this version of the double dividend theory will be disregarded in this paper.