有序推进农业转移人口市民化途径研究

有序推进农业转移人口市民化是新的历史时期推进新型城镇化的重大举措,也是各级政府关注的重点。目前农业转移人口市民化从上到下基本没有阻力,但也有一定的压力,如资金、均等化社会保障、住房、稳定的就业创业等。面对压力可通过加快农村土地收益分配体制改革、加快城乡统一的社会保障体制改革、完善住房保障体系、构建覆盖农业转移人口的就业服务体系等举措可有效缓解农业转移人口市民化的压力,从而有序推进农业转移人口市民化。     

"三农"国情、问题和出路

中国解决三农问题的难点在于: 农村人口太多,农村剩余劳动力太多,而劳均耕地太少,与发达国家绝大多数城市人口支持很少量的农业人口不同,我们40%的城市人口要支持60%的农民人口;与发达国家相比,生产力发展水平低,能支持农业和农村发展的能力毕竟有限。因此,从根本上解决“三农”问题,还要出台综合措施,多管齐下。     

Population,pensions, and endogenous economic growth

We study the effect of a declining labor force on the incentives to engage in labor-saving technical change and ask how this effect is influenced by institutional characteristics of the pension scheme. When labor is scarcer it becomes more expensive and innovation investments that increase labor productivity are more profitable. We incorporate this channel in a new dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous economic growth and heterogeneous overlapping generations. We calibrate the model for the US economy and obtain the following results. First, the effect of a decline in population growth on labor productivity growth is positive and quantitatively significant. In our benchmark, it is predicted to increase from an average annual growth rate of 1.74% over 1990–2000 to 2.41% in 2100. Second, institutional characteristics of the pension system matter both for the growth performance and for individual welfare. Third, the assessment of pension reform proposals may depend on whether economic growth is endogenous or exogenous.     

Agglomeration,Agriculture, and the Perspective of the Periphery

Abstract

This paper aims at pulling everything related to ‘agriculture’ or the ‘periphery’ a little more into the focus of research. We try to achieve this through surveying the existing theoretical and empirical literature in the field of NEG (New Economic Geography) in order to elaborate its linkages to immobile factors such as land, land-intensive productive activities, agriculture, rural areas, and the periphery. The main features of the broad variety of NEG models are reviewed with a special focus on the theme of agglomeration, which turns out to be vital for rural areas. All of these contributions are then commented on, with the aim of suggesting and discussing some future lines of research in the field.

Agglomération, agriculture, et la perspective de la périphérie

RÉSUMÉ La présente communication s'efforce de placer davantage tout ce qui concerne ‘l'agriculture’ ou la ‘périphérie’ sous l'optique de la recherche. Pour ceci, nous nous efforçons d'examiner de près les ouvrages théoriques et empiriques existants dans le domaine du NEG (New Economic Geography), afin d'en examiner les rapports avec des facteurs immuables comme la terre, les activités de production à utilisation intensive de la terre, l'agriculture, les zones rurales, et la périphérie. On se penche sur les principales caractéristiques du grand nombre de modèles NEG, en mettant tout particulièrement l'accent sur le thème de l'agglomération, qui s'avère jouer un rôle d'importance primordiale pour les zones rurales. On présente ensuite des commentaires sur toutes ces contributions dans le but de proposer certaines filières de recherche futures dans ce domaine, et d'en discuter.

Aglomeración, agricultura y la perspectiva de la periferia

RÉSUMÉ Este trabajo tiene como objetivo poner todo lo relacionado con la ‘agricultura’ o la ‘periferia’ un poco más en el foco de investigación. Intentamos hacerlo a través de una inspección de la bibliografía teórica y empírica existente en el campo NEG (New Economic Geography), con objeto de elaborar sus vínculos con factores inmóviles, tales como el terreno, actividades productivas que requieren terreno, agricultura, áreas rurales y la periferia. Las principales características de la amplia variedad de modelos NEG se revisan con un enfoque especial en el tema de la aglomeración, que resulta tener una importancia vital para las áreas rurales. Seguidamente, todas estas contribuciones se comentan con el propósito de sugerir y discutir líneas futuras de investigación en el campo.

     

Population,labour force and unemployment in Andalusia: prospects for 1993

"This paper is concerned with forecasting population, employment, labour force and unemployment in Andalusia [Spain] to 1993. For this purpose, a block-recursive demoeconomic model is presented. The demographic submodel is based on the component-cohort method of forecasting population by age and sex. The economic submodel uses econometric and time series analysis to forecast employment both in the medium and short-term. In the labour market part, the labour force is forecasted taking into account the encouraged-discouraged worker effects of changes in the demand for labour."     

The Nexus of Population,Energy, Innovation,and Complexity

For the past 200 years, humans have benefited from the abundant, inexpensive, and easily obtained energy of fossil fuels. Energy surpluses such as this are unusual in human history. In systems with little surplus energy, population growth is low and complexity emerges slowly due to the energetic costs it carries. On the rare occasions when energy is readily available, societies respond by growing rapidly. They must become more complex in response to the social, economic, and resource challenges of dense population. More complex societies are more expensive, requiring greater energy per capita. The process of increasing complexity necessitates greater energy production, creating a positive feedback cycle. Past societies have collapsed under such pressures. Population and complexity grew rapidly when the Industrial Revolution replaced economies based on annual solar radiation with economies fueled by fossil energy. The Green Revolution of the 20^th century is credited with preventing mass starvation, but it has made food production and sustaining population ever‐more dependent on high‐energy (low‐entropy) inputs. Some believe innovation will overcome the limitations of resources and permit unchecked growth. However, increases in complexity, innovation, and fossil energy are all subject to diminishing returns, and cannot continue to support population at current levels.     

住宅价格、人口异质性与城市规模

城市化作为经济增长的重要引擎,一直是人们关注的重点,但近年来中国住宅价格不断上涨导致的城市生产生活成本的持续攀升,正引起人们对房价是否会限制城市人口流入的担忧。而现有研究鲜有考虑不同类型人口下的房价对城市人口规模的影响,而忽略这种人口异质性的研究结论及相关政策可能存在较大偏差。基于此,将城市人口按户籍所在地和从事产业不同进行划分,利用中国2006-2014年206个城市样本数据进行了研究。研究发现:控制收入、教育医疗等因素后,本地居民对房价比较敏感,而外来人口并不敏感,而对实际收入比较敏感;房价提高会促进第二产业人口向第三产业人口的转变;进一步从不同地区来看,中西部地区房价与城市规模正相关,但东部地区房价上涨对城市人口具有明显的"挤出效应"。从而,住宅价格的相关政策应关注人口异质性和区域差异,合理对待房价上涨问题。     

"三农"问题与中国城市化道路

“三农”问题,应该说并不是一个全新的问题,但是“三农”问题一直没有得到根本性的解决。“三农”问题绝不仅仅是农民、农业、农村的问题,它的解决涉及整个经济结构、社会结构、经济发展的根本道路等重大问题。从长远来看,解决“三农”问题的根本出路是走城市化道路。     

Population and employment densities: structure and change

"We examine spatial patterns and their changes during the 1970s for the Los Angeles region, by estimating monocentric and polycentric density functions for employment and population. Downtown Los Angeles is clearly identified as the statistical monocentric center of the region, and it is the most consistently strong center in the polycentric patterns. Polycentric models fit statistically better than monocentric models, and there was some shift in employment distribution toward a more polycentric pattern. These findings verify the existence of polycentricity in Los Angeles and demonstrate for the first time that employment and especially population follow a polycentric pattern based on exogenously defined employment centers. The results confirm that both employment and population became more dispersed during the 1970s."     

城市化:解决结构性矛盾与"三农"问题的关键

我国目前由于城市化水平低,城乡结构不合理,导致了现在我国经济和社会发展中种种结构性的矛盾非常明显和"三农"问题的日益突出,因此加快推进城市化进程,成为解决上述问题的关键.     

缅甸KABAUNG水电站工程机组选型及辅助系统简述

文章阐述了缅甸KABAUNG水电站工程的水轮发电机组设备参数、调节保证计算成果及油气水等辅助系统.     

缅甸KABAUNG水电站工程机组选型及辅助系统简述

文章阐述了缅甸KABAUNG水电站工程的水轮发电机组设备参数、调节保证计算成果及油气水等辅助系统。     

港口开发、产业发展与人口城市化——以曹妃甸地区为例

文章从理论与实证方面对港口开发、产业发展与人口城市化的关系和相互作用进行了初步探讨.在理论部分,从共性出发,总结了三者相互作用的基本模式;从差异性出发,基于港口-腹地类型的不同,将三者相互作用的强度划分为超强关联互动作用型、强相互作用型、中强相互作用型以及弱相互作用型.同时,基于区域产业链组织的视角,从空间和时间两个维度,进一步考察了三者的相互作用.在实证部分,以曹妃甸地区为例,从港口-腹地类型的视角和区域产业链组织的视角,对理论分析进行了初步的检验.结合曹妃甸地区主要开发区的发展情况,概括出海港工业区城市化模式和临港农场改制型开发区城市化模式,根据城市化模式的不同,对三者的相互作用作了进一步的探讨.     

Agriculture and development: A brief review of the literature

After 20 years of neglect by international donors, agriculture is now again in the headlines because high food prices are increasing food insecurity and poverty. In the coming years, it will be essential to increase food productivity and production in developing countries, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa and with smallholders. This, however, requires finding viable solutions to a number of complex technical, institutional, and policy issues, including land markets, research on seeds and inputs, agricultural extension, credit, rural infrastructure, connection to markets, rural non-farm employment, trade policy and food price stabilization. This paper reviews what the economic literature has to say on these topics. It discusses in turn the role played by agriculture in the development process and the interactions between agriculture and other economic sectors, the determinants of the Green Revolution and the foundations of agricultural growth, issues of income diversification by farmers, approaches to rural development, and issues of international trade policy and food security, which have been at the root of the crisis in agricultural commodity volatility in recent years.     

北京特大城市人口治理的现状、原因及其对策研究

北京一直在控制人口,但人口疏解的效果并不理想,主要是因为北京特大城市的天时地利人和,以及呈现出的高就业率、高收入水平、低消费支出给外来人口强烈的空间拓展意向,优质公共服务的幻影对外来人口空间挤压不足。因此,站在京津冀协同发展的角度,推进北京的可持续发展,应抓住顶层设计这一根本,破解政府失灵和市场失灵的瓶颈;抓住人口动态监测这一基础,明晰人口疏解的政策需求;抓住制度执行这一关键,为制度曲行这一软肋补钙;抓住法治建设这一核心,增进全社会人口疏解的共识。