Aggregate Margin Debt and the Divergence of Price from Accounting Fundamentals

We examine whether, in the aggregate, margin debt is associated with the divergence of price from accounting fundamentals. We find that investors increase their margin debt following upward price movements away from accounting fundamentals, consistent with these investors being extrapolative in aggregate. We also find evidence that margin debt appears to be linked to temporary overpricing in recent periods, as the aggregate ratio of margin debt to price is reliably associated with negative future returns since at least 1992. Our results are consistent with the theoretical literature that predicts extrapolative traders have a destabilizing effect on market prices, and helps explain why prices diverge from accounting fundamentals.     

Discretionary Disclosures to Risk‐Averse Traders: A Research Note

Verrecchia (1983) investigates a manager's incentives for costly, discretionary disclosure of his information to risk‐averse traders when the functional form of prices is exogenously specified. We extend Verrecchia (1983) by deriving the endogenously determined functional form of prices that would arise when all traders have constant risk tolerance. We show that these endogenously determined prices are inconsistent with the assumed prices in Verrecchia (1983) when the manager elects to not disclose. We derive the manager's disclosure strategy for our setting and extend the comparative static results in Verrecchia (1990) for risk‐neutral traders to a setting where traders have constant risk tolerance and prices are endogenously derived. Further, in our setting, discretionary disclosure does not affect how traders price risk of different outcomes. Also, we offer a representation of risk‐averse traders' prices using risk‐adjusted distributions. Finally, these results provide implications for empirical‐archival discretionary disclosure studies.     

The Declining Value‐relevance of Accounting Information and Non‐Information‐based Trading: An Empirical Analysis*

Recently, a growing body of literature has suggested that financial statements have lost their value‐relevance because of a shift from a traditional capital‐intensive economy to a high‐technology, service‐oriented economy. These conclusions are based on studies that find a temporal decline in the association between stock prices and accounting information (earnings and book values). This paper empirically tests a theoretical prediction arising from the noisy rational expectations equilibrium model that suggests that the decline could be driven by non‐information‐based (NIB) trading activity, because such trading reduces the ability of stock prices to reflect accounting information. Specifically, Dontoh, Radhakrishnan, and Ronen (2004) show that when NIB trading increases, the R²s of a regression of stock price on accounting information declines. Our empirical tests confirm this prediction; that is, the decline in the association between stock prices and accounting information as measured by R²s is driven by an increase in NIB trading.     

The “news view” of economic fluctuations: Evidence from aggregate Japanese data and sectoral US data

This paper uses aggregate Japanese data and sectoral US data to explore the properties of the joint behavior of stock prices and total factor productivity (TFP) with the aim of highlighting data patterns that are useful for evaluating business cycle theories. The approach used follows that presented in [Beaudry, P., Portier, F., 2004. News, stock prices and economic fluctuations. Working paper 10548. NBER]. The main findings are that (i) in both Japan and the US, innovations in stock prices that are contemporaneously orthogonal to TFP precede most of the long-run movements in total factor productivity and (ii) such stock prices innovations do not affect US sectoral TFPs contemporaneously, but do precede TFP increases in those sectors that are driving US TFP growth, namely durable goods, and among them equipment sectors. J. Japanese Int. Economies 19 (4) (2005) 635–652.     

Foreign dependence of individual stock prices: The role of aggregate product market developments

In this paper, we analyze the role of aggregate variables in the transmission from international stock price developments to individual domestic stock prices in a small open stock market. In particular, a theoretical and econometric model is used to determine whether international aggregate product market developments explain observed differences in foreign dependence among individual Belgian stocks. The results suggest that, except for the stocks of some internationally oriented companies, expected international production is not the most important explanatory variable and that an estimation model of aggregate fundamentals explains only part of individual stock price adjustments.     

Earnings Forecasts and Price Efficiency after Earnings Realizations: Reduction in Information Asymmetry through Learning from Price*

When information asymmetry is a major market friction, earnings forecasts can lead to higher price efficiency even after the information in forecasts completely dissipates upon earnings realizations. We show this in an experimental market that features information asymmetry (i.e., some traders possess differential private information). Earnings forecasts reduce information asymmetry and lead to prices that reflect a greater amount of private information. Traders can learn more about others' information from prices. This information learned from past prices continues to reduce information asymmetry and improve price efficiency even after earnings realizations. We contribute to the disclosure literature by showing the evidence that the learning‐from‐price effect amplifies the impact of public disclosure on price efficiency.     

The Use of Trade Association Disclosures by Investors and Analysts: Evidence from the Semiconductor Industry*

This paper investigates the relation between industry-wide information disclosures by the trade association for the semiconductor industry and both share prices and analyst forecasts. Such disclosures may have little impact on investors and analysts, since prior theoretical research suggests that trade associations may be unable to secure reliable data from firms in an industry. At the same time, such disclosures may be important, since prior empirical research suggests that share prices and analyst forecasts reflect industry-wide earnings effects earlier than firm-specific effects. We document significant stock price movements on release dates of industry Flash Reports by the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) each month that contain aggregate industry data on new orders and shipments. The magnitude of the price revisions on Flash Report disclosure dates is positively associated with changes in the numbers disclosed and varies across sample firms in a manner associated with identifiable characteristics of the firms. Further tests indicate that the Flash Report provides mainly forward-looking information on new orders that is linked to firm-specific sales changes and has explanatory power for quarterly stock prices beyond firm-specific earnings. This information is used by security analysts mainly in assessing the persistence of firm-specific quarterly sales changes. Our findings support the hypothesis that the SIA is able to obtain data from firms, compile it into reliable aggregate statistics, and then distribute these statistics in a timely fashion.     

Are Investors Misled by “Pro Forma” Earnings?*

This paper uses stock market data to investigate the popular claim that investors are misled by the “pro forma” earnings numbers conspicuously featured in the press releases of some U.S. firms. We first document the frequency and magnitude of pro forma earnings in press releases issued during June through August 2000, and describe the 433 firms that engaged in this financial disclosure strategy. Our test period predates public expressions of concern by trade associations and regulators that pro forma earnings may mislead investors and the subsequent issuance of guidelines and rules on the disclosure of pro forma earnings numbers. We use two complementary approaches to determine whether the share prices that investors assign to pro forma firms are systematically higher than the prices assigned to other firms. Our market‐multiples tests for differences in price levels find some evidence suggesting that pro forma firms may be priced higher than firms that do not use the disclosure strategy. This apparent overpricing is not, however, related to the pro forma earnings numbers themselves. Our narrow‐window stock returns tests reveal no evidence of a stock return premium for pro forma firms at the quarterly earnings announcement date. Collectively, the results cast doubt on the notion that investors are, on average, misled by pro forma earnings disclosures despite the widespread concern expressed in the financial press and by regulators.     

噪声交易与股票流动性:兼对“正(负)相关”理论的评析及“流动性黑洞”现象的解释

噪声交易与股票流动性都是行为金融研究的重点，但二者的相关性问题学界一直未能达成一致，"正负之争"不休。文章改进Kyle （1985）的假设，构建符合中国实际的流动性数理模型，模型表明：噪声交易与流动性负相关，且相关关系受信息不对称、风险厌恶度等因素的影响。进一步，文章以中国沪深300指数的成分股数据证实了"噪声交易-流动性"关系，发现其存在显著的月历效应和市场行情效应。文章对"正（负）相关"理论进行了梳理和评析，为争论的清晰化、明朗化做出贡献。     

Margin,Short Selling,and Lotteries in Experimental Asset Markets

The robustness of bubbles and crashes in markets for assets with finite lives is perplexing. This paper reports the results of experimental asset markets in which participants trade two assets. In some markets, price bubbles form. In these markets, traders pay higher prices for the asset with lottery characteristics (i.e., a claim on a large, unlikely payoff). However, institutional design has a significant impact on deviations in prices from fundamental values, particularly for an asset with lottery characteristics. Price run-ups and crashes are moderated when traders finance purchases of the assets themselves and are allowed to short sell.     

PURCHASING POWER PARITY WITH RANK TESTS FOR NONLINEAR COINTEGRATION IN AFRICAN COUNTRIES

This study applies nonlinear cointegration to assess exchange rates with the corresponding relative prices and aggregate price levels for 20 African countries. We find that a nonparametric rank test has higher power than parametric testing procedures; a true data‐generating process of exchange rate is in fact a stationary nonlinear process. We examine the validity of purchasing power parity (PPP) from the nonparametric nonlinear point of view and provide robust evidence that clearly indicates PPP holds true for these countries. Hence, the long‐run African countries exchange rate adjustments are in equilibrium with the relevant fundamentals as suggested by the PPP hypothesis in a nonlinear way.     

House Price Dynamics with Household Debt: The Korean Case*

This paper revisits the long‐run determinants of house prices, and analyzes the house price dynamics using Korean data taking into account the close relationship between house prices and household debt. The results of cointegrating regression indicate that the major portion of the rise in house prices in Korea over the last 15 years can be explained by changes in macro variables such as household income, the demographic structure, the user cost of home ownership and the housing stock supply. The results also confirm that house prices are, indeed, closely linked to the steep increase in household debt seen over this period. Estimation of an error correction model shows that the extent of convergence of actual house prices to their long‐run equilibrium path has weakened somewhat since the global financial crisis while the speed of convergence has slowed, indicating structural changes in the Korean housing market. Finally, a forecast for house prices over the next several years suggests that they are unlikely to rise as sharply as they did in the 2000s, given the likely changes in the macro‐financial environment, and that their future path will be closely associated with that of the household debt‐to‐income ratio.     

The Ex-Dividend Day Stock Price Behavior: The Case of Portugal

This paper examines the ex-dividend day behavior of stock prices in the Lisbon Stock Market over the period 1990–1998, extending on international evidence and discussing the adequacy of competing theories, considering the Portuguese institutional environment. We find that on the ex-day stock prices fall by less than the dividend, which is in line with the findings of several studies based on US and non-US data. The main contributions of this paper are: (1) the rejection of a tax explanation for the stock price drop, because it is inconsistent with the Portuguese tax regime; (2) considering the very small stock price tick and the fact that dividends are always integer multiples of tick size, the discreteness hypothesis of Bali and Hite (Journal of Financial Economics 47(2):127–159, 1998) is also ruled out as a possible explanation for ex-day price movements. We find no evidence of tax related clientele effects. We propose that ex-day price behavior may be an anomaly, reflecting a less than efficient market with low liquidity levels, price stickiness, and insipid arbitrage trading.

Réactions du Marché d’Actions aux Chocs sur les Taux d’Intérêt de Court Terme,le Cas d’un Marché Emergent: la Bourse Régionale des Valeurs Mobilières (BRVM)

Abstract: Macroeconomics in general and interest rate policy in particular are believed, from a theoretical point of view, to act on stock market movements. This paper discusses this issue in the case of the West African stock market by studying the Regional Securities Exchange (la Bourse Régionale des Valeurs Mobilières (BRVM)) stock market reactions to interest rates innovations. Our results, based on VAR analysis, show that the BRVM stock market does not react immediately to short‐run interest rates’ innovations. Nevertheless, backed reactions occur in imminent periods: at the earliest in the second period and at the latest in the sixth period according to VAR models used. Long‐term effects of short‐term interest rates’ innovations on stock prices returns depend on models specified, on the kind of interest rate and on data frequency. Thus, the long‐term effect of central bank rent rates’ innovations is relatively more important than the one related to interbank rate's innovations. The previous situation of the market is, however, the main determinant of the change of stock prices. Our results show also that stock prices and short‐run interest rates have a similar reaction to both exchange rate and inflation rate's innovations.     

Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices: Evidence from Assessing Macroeconomic Shocks

This paper outlines a simple macro model with overlapping wage contracts to investigate how the temporary and permanent components of stock price movements may be related to aggregate macro-economic supply and demand disturbances. In the content of the model, we show that aggregate demand shocks have only temporary effects on real stock prices, while supply shocks may affect the level of real stock prices permanently. Moreover, the temporary component in U.S. stock prices, identified by placing appropriate structural restrictions on a vector autoregressive system estimated for the postwar period, is statistically significant. This evidence supports the mean-reversion hypothesis that stock prices are not pure random walks. The finding is robust to the choice of variables used in the vector autoregressive system and periodicity.     

Can price limits help when the price is falling? Evidence from transactions data on the Shanghai Stock Exchange

We use transactions data to explore the magnet effects of price limit rules on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SHSE). When limit hits are imminent, stock prices are found to approach the price limits at faster rates, with higher trading intensity and larger price variation, supporting the magnet effect hypothesis of Subrahmanyam [Subrahmanyam, A., 1994. Circuit breakers and market volatility: A theoretical perspective. Journal of Finance, 49, 237–254.]. Moreover, when stock prices approach the floor limits, we observe lower than normal market conditions’ trading volume and trade size but a wider spread. The panic selling psychology of individual investors for fear of illiquidity and the strategic trading decisions of discretionary traders during periods prior to price limit hits at the floors are conjectured as possible explanations for the observed price behaviors. Post-limit-hit analysis reveals evidence of delayed price discovery at the ceiling limit but price reversal at the floor.     

Crash Risk and the Auditor–Client Relationship

This study examines whether the term of the auditor–client relationship (i.e., auditor tenure) is associated with future stock price crash risk measured both ex ante and ex post. Using a large sample of U.S. public firms with Big 4 auditors, we find robust evidence that auditor tenure is negatively related to one‐year‐ahead stock price crash risk. The evidence is consistent with monitoring‐by‐learning where development of client‐specific knowledge over the term of the auditor–client relationship enhances auditors’ ability to detect and deter bad news hoarding activities by clients, thereby reducing future crash risk. This result holds even after controlling for endogeneity of the tenure/crash risk relation. We further provide evidence indicating that option market investors do not fully incorporate the information contained in the term of auditor–client relationship in predicting future stock price crash risk. Our empirical results have important policy implications for regulators concerned with ensuring auditor independence.     

WATER BILL ESTIMATION WHEN PRICE IS CRYPTIC: EXPERIENCE FROM WINDHOEK,NAMIBIA

For water policy to be effective, policy makers must know how water users perceive and respond to changes in water prices. However, it is not uncommon for water prices faced by consumers to be unclear. In Windhoek, Namibia, the marginal and average water price is difficult to calculate from the information provided in users' utility bills. This paper applies a hedonic pricing approach to investigate price perceptions of water users in a setting with cryptic price information. Using self‐reported water charges as the dependent variable, the pricing model utilises reported utility characteristics and other factors that may affect perceived price. Low‐income standpipe water users report a weighted average monthly charges of N$24.68, whereas users in high income segments report N$521.34. This reflects differences in service levels, possible subsidies to low‐income users and potential errors in respondents' understanding of their water price. Average price per litre (N$11.78 for the low‐use segment; N$1.89 for the highest segment of Tier 1 water use) tends to be perceived as higher by those with lower water use even though average prices in the relevant range should generally be identical.     

The Association between Changes in Interest Rates,Earnings, and Equity Values*

Numerous studies have documented that stock returns are negatively related to changes in interest rates, but there has been little corroborating research on the information in interest‐rate changes about the fundamentals that the stock market prices. The negative correlation is often attributed to changes in the discount rate, a denominator effect in a valuation model. However, there may also be a numerator effect on the expected payoffs that are discounted. This paper shows that changes in interest rates are positively related to subsequent earnings, but the change in earnings is typically not large enough to cover the change in the required return. Hence, the net (numerator and denominator) effect on equity value is negative, consistent with the results of the research on interest rates and stock returns.     

Assessing the price dynamics of onshore and offshore RMB markets: An ITS model approach

This paper investigates how the price dynamics of both onshore and offshore RMB markets are affected by fundamental determinants, market liquidity, global risk aversion and policies by using daily data from August 2010 to February 2016. The interval time series (ITS) modelling is applied to study the RMB price mechanism by capturing prices of the two markets as one self-formed interval data. An interval-based Wald test is constructed to examine the differences between the coefficients and an interval-based Mallows criterion is proposed for choosing appropriate explanatory variables. We find that both the price level and the price differences of onshore and offshore RMB markets are greatly affected by economic fundamentals indicated by different returns on stock indexes and market liquidity indicated by bid-ask prices of offshore market price. In addition, it is suggested that the interest rate spread between China and the US and the global risk appetite do not significantly affect the RMB price for both onshore and offshore markets. Finally, the results imply that “811 reform” of the RMB exchange rate regime does not change the fundamental price dynamics of RMB markets, but significantly changes how economic fundamentals affect the price mechanism of RMB exchange rate.