Debt Covenant Violations,Firm Financial Distress,and Auditor Actions

We conduct a comprehensive study on the associations between debt covenant violations (“violations”) and auditor actions for financially distressed and nondistressed firms. Our study is motivated by a lack of research on the consequences of violations resulting from auditors' actions. We find that firms with violations have significantly higher audit fees, a greater likelihood of receiving a going‐concern opinion, and a greater likelihood of experiencing an auditor resignation. Importantly, the positive associations hold for all types of firms, including financially nondistressed firms. In fact, we find that, after controlling for other financial information, the relation between violations and an increased likelihood of a going‐concern opinion is stronger for nondistressed versus distressed firms. Our evidence is consistent with belief‐revision research in auditing that finds auditors react more strongly to information that is inconsistent with their prior beliefs. This study provides further evidence on the indirect yet significant consequences of covenant violations on firms resulting from auditor actions.     

Further Evidence on Nontrading-Period Information Release*

Abstract. Using a sample of 856 management earnings forecasts, we provide evidence that managers release larger shock-earnings forecasts in nontrading periods. Our results do not depend on whether the magnitude of the shock is measured exogenously (unexpected accounting earnings) or endogenously (security market reaction). The timing effects are more pronounced for less-precise (i.e., open-interval and closed-interval) forecasts. Also, we provide evidence of an overnight reaction to closed-period management forecast releases. Our results are consistent with explanations for voluntary disclosure that rely on a precommitted policy of information asymmetry reduction (see Diamond 1985; King, Pownall, and Waymire 1990). These explanations lead to predictions of strategic timing of greater shocks in the nontrading period in order to provide the less-informed with a period for information evaluation. Résumé. À partir d'un échantillon de 856 prévisions de bénéfices publiées par la direction de diverses entreprises, les auteurs démontrent que les prévisions publiées par les gestionnaires en période où les titres ne sont pas négociés ont davantage d'impact. Les résultats qu'ils obtiennent ne dépendent pas du caractère exogène (bénéfices comptables inattendus) ou endogène (réaction du marché des valeurs mobilières) de la mesure de l'impact. L'effet du choix du moment est plus prononcé pour les prévisions moins précises (c'est-à-dire à intervalle ouvert et à intervalle fermé). Les auteurs démontrent aussi qu'il se produit une réaction à la publication de prévisions par la direction en période de fermeture, dans les vingt-quatre heures qui suivent la publication. Les résultats de l'étude sont conformes au principe de la présentation facultative d'information dont l'explication repose sur une politique, préalablement adoptée, de réduction de l'asymétrie de l'information (voir Diamond, 1985; King, Pownall et Waymire, 1990). Cette explication mène à des prédictions voulant que l'on choisisse, à des fins stratégiques, les périodes de non-négociation des titres pour publier les prévisions de bénéfices dont l'impact est plus grand, de manière à laisser aux investisseurs moins bien informés un certain laps de temps pour évaluer l'information.     

Some Further Evidence on Exchange-Rate Volatility and Exports

The relationship between exchange-rate volatility and aggregate export volumes is examined using a model that includes real export earnings of oil-exporting economies as a determinant of export volumes of a sample of 12 industrial countries. Four fixed-coefficient panel-data estimation techniques, including a generalized method of moments (GMM) and random coefficient (RC) estimation, are employed on panel data covering the estimation period 1977:1–2003:4 using three measures of exchange-rate volatility. Our aim is to provide a theoretically and empirically justifiable specification that can guide researchers. In contrast to recent studies employing panel data, we find little evidence that volatility has a negative and significant impact on trade. We use second-generation RC estimation, which corrects for biases arising from incorrect functional forms, omitted variables, and measurement errors. Our results suggest that the finding of a significant and negative impact of volatility is attributable to specification biases. JEL no. C23, F3, F31     

公债对经济增长的影响及影响渠道:国际证据

文章使用66个发达工业化国家和发展中国家1990~2012年的数据,采用混合最小二乘法、面板数据固定效应回归法、广义矩估计法来分析公债对经济增长的影响及其影响渠道。实证结果得出,公债对经济增长的影响是负的,发达国家比发展中国家的负效应大。文章还对公债影响经济增长的渠道作了实证分析,分析主要是从资本形成、全要素生产率、长期名义利率和实际利率3个渠道进行的。实证结果表明,公债对资本形成的影响是负的,对全要素生产率的影响是正的,公债对实际利率和名义利率的影响都是正的。     

Cross‐Country Evidence on the Importance of Auditor Choice to Corporate Debt Maturity

We examine the importance of Big Four audits in reducing agency costs evident in corporate debt maturity worldwide. Analyzing a large sample of public firms from 42 countries reveals that the fraction of long‐term debt in firms' capital structures rises with the presence of a Big Four auditor, suggesting that higher‐quality audits substitute for short‐term debt for monitoring purposes. In additional analyses, we find that the role that auditor choice plays in debt maturity is concentrated in firms from countries with strong legal institutions governing property rights and creditor rights. Collectively, our research implies that Big Four audits matter to corporate debt maturity, although the impact is isolated in firms operating in countries with more protective legal regimes.     

Reliability of Macroeconomic Data: An Evidence from Nigeria's Debt Data Series*

Abstract: This paper evaluates the causes, nature and severity of divergencies among macroeconomic data on Nigeria, using the debt data series as the contextual focus. The findings indicate significant divergencies among the debt data series being published on Nigeria by various organizations. The findings also revealed that these divergencies and inconsistencies cannot be attributed to random factors, suggesting that there are basic differences in the data-generating and reporting procedures employed by each organization. These findings imply that debt data on Nigeria are not reliable, and that research findings based on them cannot be valid. More importantly, policy-oriented research may offer conflicting recommendations, thus jeopardizing the accuracy of policy decisions and projections. The paper suggest some remedial measures to overcome the data divergencies and inconsistencies. Résumé: Ce document analyse les causes, la nature et la profondeur des divergences entre les données macroéconomiques sur le Nigeria, en partant de la série de données relatives à la dette. Les conclusions font état d'importants écarts entre les séries de données publiées par diverses organisations sur la dette du Nigeria. Les résultats révèlent également que ces divergences et écarts ne peuvent être attribués à des facteurs aléatoires, ce qui donne à penser que des différences fondamentales existent dans les procédures de production et de communication des données utilisées par chaque organisation. Les conclusions impliquent que les données sur la dette du Nigeria ne sont pas fiables et que les recherches basées sur de telles données ne peuvent aboutir á des résultats valables. Plus important encore, la recherche tournée vers l'action peut conduire à des recommandations contradictoires, compromettant l'exactitude des décisions et des projections. Le document propose quelques mesures de redressement pour surmonter les divergences et les discordances entre les données.     

风险度量和投资组合构造的进一步实证

构造投资组合是资产管理基本内容,不同的风险度量方法可以构造不同的投资组合,何种度量方法理角效,学者们说法不一,本文主要运用方差、下方风险和风险价值三种度量方法进行风险度量和资产配置,试图通过实证的方式来比较三种风险度量方法在资产选择上的异同,本文实证的结果和前期国内学者的结论大有出入。     

地方政府债务对经济增长的影响——基于债务规模与债务结构的双重视角

在提出测算地方政府隐性债务新方法的基础上,基于所测算的数据,从债务规模和债务结构的双重视角,全面分析地方政府债务对经济增长的影响。结果表明:就债务规模而言,当地方政府债务率相对较低时,增加债务有助于促进经济增长,但是当地方政府债务率相对较高时,进一步增加债务对经济增长的推动作用将会减弱。就债务结构而言,当地方政府的隐性债务占比过高时,地方政府债务的扩张会对经济增长产生更为显著的负向影响,这主要是因为隐性债务对民间投资的挤出作用更强。因此,防范与化解地方政府债务风险,不应采取"一刀切"的策略,而应从债务规模和债务结构两个视角综合考量,为各地量身打造防范与化解债务风险的最优策略。     

Weak Form Efficiency of the Nigerian Stock Market: Further Evidence

This study provides further evidence on the weak form efficiency of the Nigerian stock market, that is, whether security prices on the Nigerian stock market adjust to historical price information. Using correlation analysis, monthly stock returns data over the period January 1981–December 1992 were employed in the analysis. The results provided support for the work of Samuels and Yacout (1981) and Ayadi (1983), that is, the Nigerian stock market appears to be efficient in the weak form. — Cet article traite de la faible efficacité de la Bourse des valeurs du Nigeria, à savoir que, à partir de nouveaux éléments, il cherche àétablir si les cours des titres cotés à la Bourse du Nigeria sont réajustés pour tenir compte des données chronologiques. A l’aide d’une analyse de corrélation, un examen des données mensuelles sur le rendement des titres, pour la période allant de janvier 1981 à décembre 1992, a été réalisé. Les résultats corroborent les travaux de Samuels et Yacout (1981) et ceux de Ayadi (1983), à savoir que la Bourse des valeurs du Nigeria semble être faiblement efficace.     

Effects of Exchange Rates on Debt, Debt Services and Public Debt Management in Thailand in the 1980s

This paper attempts to evaluate the effects of exchange rates on debt, debt services, and public debt management in Thailand in the 1980s. A simple differentiation technique is used to decompose the changes in debt and debt services into 'management' and 'exchange rates' effects. The latter became more pronounced in the second half of the 1980s largely because of the increased volatility in exchange rates among key currencies. The public sector responded to these changes by adjusting the debt portfolio through new commitment and refinancing, as well as restricting the level of external debt. As a result, a significant amount of debt services was saved in 1989, when the exchange rates among major currencies began to settle down, although the same adjustments initially led to temporary increases in the levels of debt and debt services during the mid-1980s.
Moreover, the diversified structure of public external debt made it possible to compensate a change of debt or debt service in one currency denomination by a counter change of those in another currency denomination. Such a compensating relationship (e.g. between Yen and US dollar during 1985–87) helped stabilise the effects of exchange rates. The baht is now pegged to a basket of currencies. In theory the effects of exchange rates may be completely neutralised if the debt portfolio reflects the weight of each currency in the basket. Such relationships may be incorporated to improve the efficiency of public debt management.     

Assessing the Determinants of NCAA Football Violations

What are the factors that cause members of the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) intercollegiate sports cartel to cheat? We develop a model that reflects the multi-institutional aspects of the decision process involved in the determination of major football program NCAA violations including university performance and incentives, rival behavior, and NCAA enforcement. Prior research is prone to omitted variable bias since studies have typically focused on only one of those components. The data sample includes all major football programs from 1981 to 2011, with 3,420 annual institution observations. Our empirical results confirm the multidimensional aspects of the cheating calculus. University characteristics and leadership, conference rivals, public/private university status, and different NCAA enforcement regimes are all significant contributors to the decision to cheat on the NCAA cartel.     

浅议储蓄国债是凭证式国债的发展方向

储蓄国债是我国国债市场兴起的新品种,其合理的设计和成熟的运作方式都优于凭证式国债,是一种管理更科学,投资者兑付更灵活方便的新的国债品种,将成为今后国债市场上的主要品种。     

主权政府债务规模影响因素的传导路径及定量分解——以美国为例

本文在前人研究的基础之上,总结了主权政府债务规模变动的主要影响因素及影响路径,并根据建立的政府债务理论模型,利用微分、积分和余值等数学方法将经济增长、通货膨胀、财政赤字及其他非常规财政因素对主权政府实际债务规模的变动进行了定量分解。最后,笔者对两次美国联邦政府债务急剧增长时期(1942～1955年和2007至今)的债务及相关数据进行了实证研究,以印证上述方法,结果发现,财政因素是美国政府债务规模急剧增长的主要原因,而面对同期的经济萧条和较高的债务负担,通货膨胀成为了政府削减债务最重要的工具。     

南与北的重庆之约

2019年10月22日,一列来自重庆的中欧班列,在新疆乌鲁木齐中欧班列集结中心加挂了两组发往荷兰鹿特丹的集装箱,继续前往欧洲。这种集拼集运的运输模式,是重庆与新疆合作落实国家"一带一路"倡议、推进中欧班列高效运行的有力之举,不仅让新疆本地产品搭上了中欧班列(渝新欧)的便车,还为中欧班列集拼集运模式常态化运行提供了有力支撑。     

Money,Inflation and Adjustment Policy in Africa: Some Further Evidence

Abstract: In view of the explicit link between inflation and the rate of monetary expansion that is invariably incorporated into many macroeconomic adjustment programmes in Africa, this paper, using both cross-section and time series econometric analysis, provides some new empirical evidence on the relationship between money and inflation in Africa. It is shown that although, broadly speaking, the simple monetarist inflation model appears to hold when tested in cross-section equations covering several countries and averaged over several years, the same is generally not true for individual countries in time series analysis or in cross-section studies covering shorter time periods. In fact, the result of the analysis strongly suggest that factors other than the rate of monetary expansion have played an important role in determining short-run inflation trends in Africa. With respect to the implications of these findings for the conduct of current macroeconomic policy and in particular, given the apparently lesser role that ought to be assigned to monetary factors over the short run, the paper urges greater flexibility in deploying policy instruments towards inflation targets in individual African countries and cautions against the application of rules based on regional results in favour of those derived from country-specific findings. Résumé: Compte tenu du lien explicite entre inflation et taux d'expansion monetaire, auquel il est invariablement fait reference dans de nombreux pro-grammes d'ajustements macro-economique en Afrique, cet article, s'appuyant sur une analyse economique de donnees transversales et chronologiques fournit de nouvelles preuves empiriques des relations qui existent entre la monnaie et l'inflation en Afrique. On montre que, de facon generale, mkme si le simple modele monetariste d'inflation parait ktre valide lorsqu'on effectue des tests sur des equations transversales couvrant plusieurs pays et qu'on calcule sa moyenne sur plusieurs annees, il n'en est pas de mCme, pour les pays consideres isolement, dans l'analyse de series chronologiques ou dans les etudes transver-sales couvrant des periodes plus courtes. De fait, les resultats de l'analyse donnent fortement a penser que des facteurs autres que le taux d'expension monetaire ont joue un role important dansla determination des tendances inflationnistes a court terme en Afrique. En ce qui concerne les consequences de ces conclusions pour la conduite de la politique macro-economique actuelle et, en particulier, vu le role moins important, a ce qui semble, qu'il faudrait accorder court terme aux facteurs monetaires, l'article preconise une plus grande souplesse dans le deploiement de la panoplie des instruments de poli- tique economique pour atteindre les objectifs retenus pour le taux d'inflation dam les differents pays africains et met en garde contre l'application de regles fondees sur les resultats regionaux en faveur de celles elaborees a partir de conclusions propres aux pays.