The Impact of Inflation Uncertainty on Output Growth and Inflation in Thailand*

We explore the impact of inflation uncertainty on output growth in Thailand, an emerging market economy with moderate inflation. Inflation and output uncertainty are modeled in a bivariate constant conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (AR(p)‐cccGARCH(1,1)) specification. We include the exchange rate in the mean equations, and use the headline and core inflation rates and industrial production to generate inflation and output uncertainty series. These series are then used in Granger causality tests to make inferences about the effect of monetary policy‐induced inflation uncertainty. Causality tests show a positive relation from inflation to inflation uncertainty. Additionally, increased inflation uncertainty decreases output. These results are consistent with real costs associated with moderate inflation. Finally, we find no evidence that monetary policy reduced these costs.     

Flight to Quality in International Markets: Investors’ Demand for Financial Reporting Quality during Political Uncertainty Events

We examine whether international equity mutual fund managers shift their portfolios toward stocks with higher financial reporting quality (FRQ) during periods of high political uncertainty. Our study is motivated by two primary factors. First, prior research shows evidence of fund managers’ “flight to quality” (e.g., to less risky securities) during periods of uncertainty. Second, recent theoretical research concludes that stocks with higher FRQ are assessed as less sensitive to systematic risk (such as political uncertainty). We employ national elections as exogenous increases in systematic risk in the local markets and accordingly use an international sample of mutual funds that focus on local markets. We find that mutual fund managers shift their equity holdings to stocks with higher FRQ during election periods when political uncertainty is higher. Such a flight‐to‐quality effect is less pronounced for elections with larger expected electoral margins in the pre‐election period (i.e., when the incumbent is more likely to win the election) and for countries with higher transactions costs. In contrast, the effect is more pronounced when governments have greater involvement in the local economy. Our inferences are robust to alternative proxies for political uncertainty and FRQ and to numerous other sensitivity analyses.     

Compensation in the Post‐FIN 48 Period: The Case of Contracting on Tax Performance and Uncertainty

Academic and anecdotal evidence indicates that incentive systems often provide short‐term payouts without regard for long‐term consequences. New detailed disclosures mandated by FIN No. 48, Accounting for Uncertainty in Income Taxes, enable us to use a tax setting to investigate whether boards adjust performance‐based pay for uncertainty. We find managers’ bonus payouts are positively associated with tax performance; however, bonus payouts are lower when measures of ex ante tax uncertainty are higher. Our results are robust to tests of alternative explanations including financial reporting aggressiveness, overall firm risk, and other forms of compensation. Further, we document that the relation between bonus compensation and tax performance has changed in the post‐FIN No. 48 period. Specifically, we identify a significant association between bonus payout and GAAP ETR only in the pre‐FIN No. 48 period and a significant association between bonus payout and cash ETR only in the post‐FIN No. 48 period, suggesting that the relation between compensation and tax avoidance should be examined carefully with particular attention to the post‐FIN No. 48 period.     

The dynamics of outsourcing: From labor cost‐saving to preference‐based outsourcing

Jones's (2000) celebrated book has inspired a generation of work devoted to understanding the causes and consequences of outsourcing. While much of this work has focused on the outsourcing versus domestic production decision of the firm, with labor cost‐saving as the key driver for outsourcing, we further explore how preference‐based outsourcing may arise in a dynamic world equilibrium. We address this problem in a North–South model in which the outsourcing decision depends not only on labor costs but also on information about local preferences that arise with outsourcing. As the South develops, demand for manufactured goods becomes more important, so identifying specific tastes of Southern consumers matters more. As a result, preference‐based outsourcing displaces cost‐saving outsourcing. Our quantitative analysis indicates that, as both agricultural and manufacturing technologies grow over time, the dynamic world equilibrium switches from the export regime to the cost‐saving outsourcing regime, and eventually to the preference‐based outsourcing regime.     

Economic Consequences of IFRS Adoption: The Role of Changes in Disclosure Quality*

This study adopts a two‐step approach to highlight the disclosure quality channel that drives economic consequences of IFRS adoption. This approach helps address the identification challenge noted by prior research and offers direct evidence on the role of disclosure quality. In the first step, we document the impact of the IFRS mandate on changes in disclosure quality proxied by the granularity of line item disclosure in financial statements. We find that IFRS‐adopting firms provide more disaggregated information upon IFRS adoption, such as more granular disclosure of intangible assets and long‐term investments on the balance sheet and greater disaggregation of depreciation, amortization, and nonoperating income items on the income statement. In the second step, we link the observed disclosure changes to the benefits and costs of IFRS adoption. We show that greater disaggregated information due to IFRS adoption enhances market liquidity and decreases information asymmetry, but does not affect audit fees differentially. Our evidence has implications for standard setters as they evaluate cost‐benefit trade‐offs when considering disclosure changes in the future.     

How the Internet Promotes China's Exports: A Firm‐level Perspective

The development of information and communications technology (ICT), particularly the Internet, has reduced trade costs. However, it remains unclear whether these reduced costs are reflected in the “extensive margins” of firms’ exports (which refer to the probability of firms exporting) or the “intensive margins” (which refer to the value of firms’ export). To test this, we used the concepts of information cost and binary margins, an augmented trade model of firm heterogeneity, a two‐stage Heckman estimation, and data from the World Bank Enterprise Survey of Chinese firms in 2012. The results revealed that reduced trade costs from the use of ICT were positively related to extensive margins but that the connection with intensive margins was not significant. The results lead to the conclusion that reduced information costs related to a firm's exporting behavior were primarily reflected in variable trade costs. This study offers theoretical and empirical evidence for China's policies towards the Internet, which are relevant for the export of manufactured goods. The government should encourage the use of ICT to enhance firms’ export opportunities while facing current trade policy uncertainty.     

Uncertainty and the Great Slump†

This article investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the British interwar economy. The first type of evidence examined is qualitative. The historical record shows that contemporaries regularly reported the incidence and consequences of major uncertainty shocks. The second type of evidence analysed is quantitative. Based on a new index of economic policy uncertainty constructed from newspapers and vector autoregressions, the results suggest that uncertainty was an important source of economic fluctuations in Britain between the wars.     

Land Transport for Export: The Effects of Cost, Time, and Uncertainty in Sub-Saharan Africa

In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), inland export transport costs and time delays are much higher for landlocked countries, vary substantially between different geographic corridors, and exhibit substantial uncertainty. Unit costs and costs of time for land transport of exports are high for many agricultural products relative to metals and other high-value products. We illustrate systemic uncertainty in land and maritime transport for exporting by use of simulation. Relationships among uncertainty, infrastructure quality, and other features of logistics systems are highly non-linear, and can be potentially used to identify priorities for trade facilitation.     

Disclosure and Recognition Requirements: Corporate Investment Decisions with Externalities*

This paper examines the effects of disclosure and recognition requirements on investment decisions when shareholders have limited liability. Firms' investment projects have either high initial pollution prevention costs or high subsequent clean‐up costs, and their liability for clean‐up costs may be either individual or joint and several. Even with individual liability for clean‐up costs, shareholders' limited liability creates an incentive to select the latter project type and to impose costs on the rest of the economy. This tendency is exacerbated when clean‐up liability is joint and several. We show that a disclosure requirement cannot have an unambiguous effect on the selection of the “cleaner” project. However, an accrual requirement, together with an accounting‐based dividend restriction, is shown to promote choice of the project that imposes lower expected costs on the rest of the economy. Moreover, we find that it is possible for a recognition requirement to have a greater impact in a joint‐and‐several liability regime than in an individual liability regime.     

Note on uncertainty and socially excessive entry

It is well known that under general conditions entry into imperfectly competitive markets is usually excessive. This note explores the effects of uncertainty on this result. Specifically, a firm that incurs entry costs might fail to successfully enter a market. In this environment, it is found that the previous conditions might not hold when there is uncertainty. That is, with uncertainty entry might be socially insufficient (instead of excessive) by more than one firm.     

Promise,trust, and betrayal: Costs of breaching an implicit contract

We study the cost of breaching an implicit contract in a goods market. Young and Levy (2014) document an implicit contract between the Coca‐Cola Company and its consumers. This implicit contract included a promise of constant quality. We offer two types of evidence of the costs of breach. First, we document a case in 1930 when the Coca‐Cola Company chose to avoid quality adjustment by incurring a permanently higher marginal cost of production, instead of a one‐time increase in the fixed cost. Second, we explore the consequences of the company's 1985 introduction of “New Coke” to replace the original beverage. Using the Hirschman's (1970) model of Exit, Voice, and Loyalty, we argue that the public outcry that followed New Coke's introduction was a response to the implicit contract breach.     

Information Uncertainty and Analyst Forecast Behavior*

Prior literature observes that information uncertainty exacerbates investor underreaction behavior. In this paper, I investigate whether, as professional investment intermediaries, sell‐side analysts suffer more behavioral biases in cases of greater information uncertainty. I show that greater information uncertainty predicts more positive (negative) forecast errors and subsequent forecast revisions following good (bad) news, which corroborates previous findings on the post‐analyst‐revision drift. The opposite effects of information uncertainty on forecast errors and subsequent forecast revisions following good versus bad news support the analyst underreaction hypothesis and are inconsistent with analyst forecast rationality or optimism suggested in prior literature.     

Dual labour markets and nominal rigidity

The conventional menu cost framework performs poorly with realisticlabour supply elasticities: the menu costs required for pricerigidity are very high and the welfare consequences of monetarydisturbances are negligible. We show that the presence of duallabour markets greatly improves the performance of the frameworkboth by reducing the minimum effective menu costs and by boostingthe welfare consequences. In addition, the introduction of duallabour markets provides an explanation of procyclical productivityand the shrinking of wage differentials during booms, in linewith stylized facts on business cycles.     

An Investigation of the Value Relevance of Alternative Foreign Exchange Disclosures*

We demonstrate analytically and empirically that valuing a firm with foreign operations in the presence of exchange rate uncertainty requires information on the foreign operating cash flows disaggregated by currency and persistence. In particular, given consolidated earnings, investors need information on the exchange gain or loss on permanent foreign operating cash flows. We extend the model to show how the permanent foreign cash flows can be used to condition the change in the translation adjustment to make it value‐relevant; however, using the permanent foreign cash flows directly is superior for valuation purposes. The empirical tests support our hypothesis that the market response to exchange rate movements is sensitive to the relative magnitudes of revenues and costs denominated in each foreign currency in which a firm has transactions. Disclosure of cash flows by currency should enhance the valuation of firms with foreign operations.     

Inflation and inflation uncertainty in the ASEAN-5 economies

This study explores the linkage between inflation and inflation uncertainty in the ASEAN-5 countries over the period 1970:01–2007:12. Inflation uncertainty is estimated as a conditional variance in an AR(p)-EGARCH(1,1) model. Granger causality tests show that rising inflation increases inflation uncertainty and that rising inflation uncertainty increases inflation in all five countries. The ASEAN-5 have had low inflation rates relative to other emerging markets. Thus, our study shows that even in low inflation emerging markets inflation can lead to inflation uncertainty and uncertainty can lead to inflation. Given current inflationary pressures in these countries, our results warn of possible costs of not keeping inflation in check.     

货币政策不确定性与企业现金持有——现金股利视角的新解释

研究利用中国A股上市公司样本,系统探讨了货币政策不确定性对企业现金持有策略的影响.研究发现:随着货币政策不确定性的提高,企业现金持有水平降低.深入研究发现货币政策不确定性对企业现金持有策略的影响主要通过现金股利渠道发挥作用,即在货币政策不确定性较高时期,企业持有的现金更多用于支持现金股利分配,籍此向市场传递积极信号.进一步研究排除了投资机会与代理成本等潜在干扰因素的影响,并且结合产权性质差异的分析发现货币政策不确定性对于非国有企业现金持有策略的影响更为明显.研究一方面基于不确定性视角为货币政策如何影响企业现金管理策略提出了新解释——现金股利渠道,有助于更好地理解我国上市公司的现金持有策略;另一方面也说明货币政策频繁调整所导致的货币政策不确定性很可能是加剧实体经济经营风险的宏观诱因.     

Dynamic Portfolio Adjustment and Capital Controls: A Euler Equation Approach

We present a multiasset dynamic portfolio balance model that is based on the maximization of an intertemporal utility function in consumption when investors operate under uncertainty, quadratic adjustment costs, and capital market regulations. We estimate the model's structural parameters on quarterly portfolio data of the German private sector. Asset demand is insensitive to return changes, although the coefficients are significant. Adjustment costs are low but highly significant, giving rise to moderate lags of adjustment. Still, existing capital controls and adjustment costs cannot explain the currently observed “home bias” in the portfolio. Overall, our results imply a strong rejection of the portfolio model.     

Adjustment Costs,Uncertainty, and the Level of Activity

What is the effect of adjustment costs on economic activity? This is an important question that is still debated either at the political or the academic level. We consider a simple model where basically two effects come into play: Adjustment costs decrease current activity but may help maintain future activity. We examine their relative strength, first in a model with uncertain prices and then in a model with demand uncertainty (newsboy problem).     

Understanding the Cyclical Nature of Financial Intermediation Costs

Intermediation costs (i.e., all noninterest bank expenses) are counter‐cyclical and their changes have significant effects at the country‐level; however, the literature is silent on what drives their cyclicality. Previous studies have examined costs using cross‐sectional or low frequency data and thus cannot capture dynamic macroeconomic effects across time. We fill this gap by examining U.S. intermediation costs using a quarterly, bank‐level dataset from 1993 through 2012. This data set allows for the separation of microeconomic and macroeconomic factors affecting the cyclicality of costs. The analysis shows that house prices are the main driving source of this counter‐cyclicality. Because housing is used as collateral, a price decline leads banks to increase their operating costs for monitoring, screening and litigation costs which cause a credit crunch in the economy.     

Trade Flows,Exchange Rate Uncertainty,and Financial Depth: Evidence from 28 Emerging Countries

This article investigates the effects of real exchange rate uncertainty on manufactures exports from 28 emerging economies, representing 82% of all developing country manufactures exports, and explores the sources of heterogeneity in the uncertainty effects by controlling for the direction of trade (south‐north or south‐south), and the level of financial development of the exporting country. The empirical results show that for more than half of the countries, the uncertainty effect is unidirectional, either south‐south or south‐north, and the median impact is negative. In addition, while we find that financial development augments trade, exchange rate shocks can negate this effect. Last but not least, trade among developing economies improves export growth under exchange rate shocks.