The macroeconomics of unbalanced growth and the expanding public sector: Some simple tests of a model of government growth

A now classic model of public sector growth is Baumol's (1967) ‘Macroeconomics of Unbalanced Growth’. That model implies that one cause of public sector expenditure growth is a low or zero rate of productivity growth in the public sector relative to the private sector. Previous studies have tested, and partially confirmed, the Baumol hypothesis by computing productivity indices for various public sector activities. In this paper I attempt to test that model in a more direct manner. The unbalanced growth model is used to predict growth rates of per capita government expenditures, government's share of GNP and the pattern of government expenditure growth. These predictions are compared with observed growth rates of aggregate government expenditures. The model predicts the growth rate aggregate government expenditures, the growth rate of government's share of GNP, and the pattern of government expenditure growth reasonably well, and the data tend to support the Baumol model.     

EXPERIENCE OF PRIVATIZATION IN EASTERN GERMANY*

ABSTRACT^**: The analysis of the experience of privatization in Eastern Germany shows that the boundaries between the private and public sectors will become increasingly blurred, with the public sector becoming more like the private sector. One may also expect that employment will fall and productivity greatly increase. The legislature's urge to regulate everything will ultimately subside but the public sector will continue to be of vital importance for the economy as a whole. A modernized public sector will be able to deploy its services to make an important contribution to economic growth and employment.     

Is there a signalling role for public wages? Evidence for the euro area based on macro data

Do public sector wages have an influence in the determination of private sector wages? This article tries to isolate the pure signalling effect that one sector might exert on the other by controlling for other determinants of wages (prices, productivity, institutions) for the main euro area economies (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) and the periods 1980–2007 and 1991–2007. It exploits available quarterly information not yet used in the literature, and combines different data sources in the framework of mixed-frequencies time series models. The quarterly frequency of our data allows us to decompose the casual effects into purely intra-annual effects and across-years effects. Our conclusions establish the existence of purely intra-annual links between public and private sector wages (signalling effect). There is strong evidence of public wages’ leadership, either in conjunction with bi-directional links from the private sector (Spain, Italy) or pure public sector leadership (Germany and France in the sample 1991–2007). Our empirical approach allows us to also unveil a complex and rich structure of indirect links of wages with other variables (prices, productivity and institutional factors).     

Infrastructure investment and Canadian manufacturing productivity

This paper examines the relationship between Canadian public infrastructure and private output using a Constant Elasticity and Substitution-Translog (CES-TL) cost model to describe the interaction of the public and private sectors.

We find public capital a substitute for private capital within the Canadian manufacturing sector. Additionally, the services of public capital enhance the productivity of private capital. Canadian manufacturing costs are characterized by economies of scale, indicating that less than optimal plant sizes dominated Canadian manufacturing sector during the study period. Advances in disembodied technical progress are also indicated.     

The growth–distribution nexus in a mixed regime of education with a status motive: On the macroeconomics of the welfare state

We develop a growth model with human capital accumulation to study the effects of status-driven motivation on individuals' choice between public or private education. This choice interacts with and exacerbates the effects of status, with implications for growth and distribution. More motivated individuals work harder and choose private education. In a majority voting/median voter setup, individuals choose a public education size for which there is no trade-off between long-term growth and inequality. We also highlight the conflict of interest between individuals with respect to the size of the public education sector and the tax rate that supports it. We thus highlight important interactions between the macroeconomy, social attitudes and educational institutions and derive results of interest in a variety contexts. We end by drawing policy conclusions among which, the idea that in democracies, higher growth and lower inequality are mutually compatible when the government promotes public education.     

Effects of Public Infrastructure on Cost Structure and Productivity in the Private Sector

This paper examines the effects of public infrastructure on the cost structure and productivity in the private sector in Australia. Translog cost functions incorporating public capital infrastructure are estimated for the aggregate private sector as well as for seven broad industry groups using annual time series data for 1968/69–1995/96. The effects of public infrastructure on productivity are measured in terms of both cost-saving and output-augmenting measures. The empirical results suggest that public infrastructure has a positive and significant impact on productivity in private sector industries. Public capital serves as a substitute for both private capital and labour. The rates of return to public capital are significant and vary over the sample period.     

R&D,public innovation policy,and productivity: The case of danish manufacturing

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between private R&D, public innovation support transferred to the private sector, and productivity in Danish manufacturing. Two main conclusions are established. First, public innovation support has a positive and significant effect on private R&D expenditures with an estimated elasticity of 0.062. Second, the indirect effect on productivity from public innovation support is reflected in a positive point estimate which is found to be robust to different specifications of R&D capital.     

The impact of public capital on the US private economy: new evidence and analysis

This paper presents new evidence on the impact of public capital on the productivity of the US private sector. Using a production function approach, we estimate the impact of public investment on private capital productivity, specifically addressing the empirical critiques of earlier studies. We find evidence of a cointegrating relationship in a dynamic specification of an empirical model that includes public infrastructure as a factor of production, indicating the existence of a long‐run relationship between the US public capital stock and the productivity of the private capital stock. The results are used to explore how the decline in the growth rate of the public capital stock would have affected the performance of the private sector.     

A measure of total factor productivity with biased technological change

The paper presents a new measure of total factor productivity (TFP) that also takes into account the effect of biased technological change. With this methodology, we can distinguish the effects resulting from the introduction of neutral or biased technological change on TFP, called neutral factor productivity and biased factor productivity (BFP), respectively. The new measure of TFP also holds in extreme cases where only the effect of neutral/biased technological change is presented. In particular, the BFP component increases (decreases) when the productivity of the cheaper (more expensive) factor increases. Moreover, the TFP holds up to the modification of both units of measure and to the costs of factors. Finally, the intensity of the BFP is independent of the direction of the technological change.     

Ownership, Productivity Change, and Financial Performance in Chinese Industry

This paper investigates Chinese industrial productivity from 1980 to 1996. Results include series for foreign-linked, shareholding, and private enterprises. We find long-term productivity increase, with growth rates declining during the 1990's. Productivity outcomes outside the state and collective sectors are modest, with shareholding enterprises suffering productivity declines. The paper examines differences in marginal factor productivity across ownership types, considers the impact of business cycles on the interpretation of productivity trends, and documents a statistical relationship among the profitability of state enterprises, the relative productivity performance of state firms, and the entry of new firms outside the state sector.J. Comp. Econom., December 2000, 28(4), pp. 786–813. Brandeis University, Waltham, Massachusetts 02254; University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15260; Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, 5 Jianguomennei Street, Beijing, China 100732.     

Wal‐Mart innovation and productivity: a viewpoint

Abstract Technology effects, business process development, and productivity growth are considered in the context of a single company: Wal‐Mart. The starting point is the 2001 McKinsey Global Institute report, which finds that over 1995–2000, a quarter of U.S. productivity growth is attributable to the retail industry, and almost a sixth of that is attributable to Wal‐Mart. Wal‐Mart is interesting as well because of its rapid growth in Canada. This is now Canada's largest private sector employer. We also consider other evidence relevant to public policy formation concerning Wal‐Mart and conclude with a discussion of options for partially filling important data gaps.     

Ownership,competition, and bank productivity: An analysis of Indian banking in the post-reform period

This paper investigates the effect of ownership and competition on Indian bank productivity since the 1991 reforms. We find that Indian private banks dominate the public and foreign banks both in terms of productivity levels and productivity growth, with the new Indian private banks leading the charge. Competition has a positive impact on productivity for the old Indian private banks, and all the other banks are hurt by competition — the worst hit being new Indian private banks. A similar picture emerges on the productivity growth side, with the new Indian private bank productivity growth being the worst affected as competition increases. An analysis of the pre- and post-1998 periods shows that the latter period displays a much higher productivity gap between the Indian private banks and the public and foreign banks. Indian private bank productivity and productivity growth suffer due to increasing competition in the post-1998 period.     

Privatization and economic growth in Australia: the shorthand of a long process

The impact of privatization on economic growth has been little investigated relative to disaggregated approaches. A growth accounting framework is used here to investigate the impact of privatization on growth for the Australian economy. The contribution of public capital to the private sector and whether the growth process is endogenous or Solow is evaluated. Separate measures of public and private capital are computed in order to estimate their impacts with labour on Australian gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the period 1960 to 2003. A simple growth rates version is found preferred by stationarity and other tests. Labour growth appears to strongly positively influence the growth of GDP. In contrast, public capital growth has no statistically significant effect on GDP growth, or on private capital productivity. The data are consistent with the hypothesis that the coefficients of the growth equation are the same before and during privatization.     

也谈所有制结构问题

通过对国有企业深层次矛盾的分析 ,说明了现阶段我国发展非公有制经济的必要性。文章认为 ,搞活国有企业必须让非公有制经济参股 ,国有资产比重的下降并没有否定公有制的主体地位。     

Employment shifts, economic reform and the changes in public/private sector wages in Mexico: 1987–1997

Over the last decade, the public sector in Mexico experienced substantial fiscal reform, divestiture of public enterprises, and the elimination of many regulations affecting pay and employment. This study analyzes the changes in the public/private sector differences in wages during the 1987–1997 period. The results from analyzing microdata from the Encuesta Nacional de Empleo Urbano show that relative public sector wages increased from 1987 to 1997. Most of the relative wage increase in the public sector can be explained by increases in the price of skills and by changes in sorting across sectors. The results have important public policy implications since they suggest that public sector workers earn more and their wages have grown faster than those of their private sector counterparts. As such, policies contemplating public sector reform should take into account the effect of these measures on the inter-sectoral income distribution and the overall economic growth. First version received: April 2000/Final version received: December 2000     

Wage determination and returns to education in different ownerships of China: Evidence from quantile regressions

In this paper, quantile regressions is used to estimate wage equations of different ownerships. Quantile regressions give us distributions rather than a single estimate of the returns both to education and experience in each ownership sector. For state-owned enterprises (SOE), the returns to education tended to be larger at the bottom of the conditional distribution of wages in 1991 and 1993, and there was no such trend in 1997. For the private sector, however, the returns to education tended to be larger at the top positions in 1993 and 1997. It is also found that the growth rates of the wages at the bottom of the conditional distribution of wages are higher than those at the top in SOEs. No such patterns for the private sector is found. It is suggested the wage mechanism in the private sector is more market-oriented. __________ Translated from Shijie Jingji Wenhui 世界经济文汇 (World Economic Papers), 2006, (4): 1–26     

COSTLY INTERMEDIATION AND THE POVERTY OF NATIONS*

This article has two goals: (i) to reduce the 7‐fold productivity differential required to explain the observed 33‐fold income difference between the richest and poorest countries of the world; and (ii) to explain cross‐country differences in the capital‐output ratio. To achieve the first goal we modify the production function of the standard neoclassical growth model to include public capital whose provision is subject to intermediation costs. For the second goal we distort private investment by introducing credit frictions. The model, quantified using cross‐country data, generates an income gap of 33 with productivity differences of only 3 under the measured variations in public and private capital. The required productivity gap declines even further, to 2.1, when we introduce a home‐production sector. On the second goal, however, credit frictions do a poor job of explaining cross‐country variations in the capital‐output ratio.     

On the interaction between public and private capital in economic growth

This paper introduces two forms of interaction between private and public capital in an endogenous growth model in which productive government expenditure takes the form of a stock-variable and public capital is used in part as an input in the production of final output and in part to increase its own supply. While the first form of interaction involves the stocks of the two capital-goods and takes place within the final output sector through the specification of the aggregate production function (Cobb?CDouglas vs. CES), the second one concerns the rates of investment in the two kinds of capital. The share of productive public expenditure devoted to output production can be either exogenous or endogenous. Our results suggest that when this share is exogenous, along the balanced growth path the optimal growth rate of the economy is a positive function of the degree of complementarity between the two forms of investment. When the share of productive public expenditure devoted to output production is endogenous, the public capital share in GDP becomes, along with the model??s preference parameters, an important determinant of the economy??s long run growth. We also find that the optimal growth rate is an increasing function of the elasticity of substitution between public and private capital inputs in goods production, and is independent of the complementarity/substitutability between the two forms of investment.     

ON THE EFFECTS OF DIFFERENT PATTERNS OF PUBLIC CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES

The multiplier effects resulting from an isolated increase in the level of public consumption within different public branches are investigated and the policy implications are discussed. The article begins with a theorethical analysis which shows why and in which ways these multipliers can be expected to differ between public branches. Thereafter, an empirical investigation is given, based on simulations with an econometric model of the Swedish economy. In this model the public activities are divided into 13 different public branches. The effects of an increase in public consumption on employment, imports and private consumption are found to differ considerably depending on which branch of the public sector is expanded. Some implications for short run stabilization policy are discussed. The article ends with a special analysis of the implications for a medium term planning problem: the trade off between private and public consumption growth. This analysis throws new light on the old topic "private or public consumption". In an economy with highly differentiated production in the public sector the trade-off is shown not to be unique. The sacrifice of private consumption growth corresponding to a given growth of public consumption expenditures will vary considerably according to the distribution of the public consumption growth within the different branches of the public sector.