市场分割与实际汇率

文章考察了财政分权背景下市场分割现象对实际汇率的影响。市场分割现象会导致实际汇率升值,通过消费者替代弹性效应和本地差别消费权重效应两种渠道来实现实际汇率升值,其中差别消费权重效应会在一定临界值之上制约替代弹性效应,当不可贸易品比重上升到一定程度时,亦会减弱本地差别消费权重对实际汇率的正向效应。文章以中国27个省为样本(2001～2016年),利用面板参数模型和半参数模型进行的实证检验支持了理论假说。     

我国劳动力市场分割理论研究综述

改革开放以来,我国劳动力市场分割日趋明显,这严重阻碍了我国经济社会的发展.本文从劳动力市场分割理论的研究发展入手进行综述.     

农产品价格与人民币实际汇率

本文在一个开放的“二元经济“大国的框架内讨论了中短期的人民币实际汇率与国际农产品价格间的关系,在Balassa-Samuelson模型的基础上得出了简单的结论:连续两个农业年度的农产品价格均会对当期人民币实际汇率产生影响,价格上升可造成实际汇率升值;有时前一个农业年度的价格影响更大.     

劳动力市场分割与农村劳动力非农就业

一、劳动力市场分割的特征及判定标准 Doeringer和Piore(1971)通过对美国低工资劳动力市场的观察和研究发现,旨在提高低收入群体劳动力市场能力的人力政策效果并不明显,因为高、低工资者或在业者与失业者之间的人力资本差别并不大,于是他们认为有理由把劳动力市场看成是分割的,且被分成一级劳动力市场和二级劳动力市场.     

劳动力市场的横向分割与纵向分割之比较

本文以劳动力市场的横向分割与纵向分割两种分割系统为线索,力求对分割理论和现实情况进行勾勒与诠释,主要从生成因素、经济效应、应对之策三个维度对两者展开比较,试图对该研究领域的诸多观点进行梳理与整合。     

广东省劳动力市场分割与供求关系的实证分析

通过分析广东省劳动力供求状况,发现存在"供不应求"和"失业"并存的现象。那么是什么因素导致人才没有在各行业间自由流动呢?劳动力市场分割理论对此现象作出了解释,本文根据原因提出了相应的建议。     

农产品价格与人民币实际汇率

本文在一个开放的“二元经济”大国的框架内讨论了中短期的人民币实际汇率与国际农产品价格间的关系，在Balassa-Samuelson模型的基础上得出了简单的结论：连续两个农业年度的农产品价格均会对当期人民币实际汇率产生影响，价格上升可造成实际汇率升值；有时前一个农业年度的价格影响更大。     

劳动力价格扭曲对人民币实际汇率的影响:理论与实证研究

文章基于巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应视角构建理论模型,将劳动力价格扭曲引入到人民币实际汇率的分析当中。并利用了中国1998~2014年30个省域面板数据,实证检验了劳动力价格扭曲对人民币实际汇率的影响。研究发现,劳动力价格扭曲对人民币实际汇率有着显著的负向影响,即劳动力价格扭曲数值的增加会导致人民币实际贬值,其作用机理是通过影响B-S效应逐步抑制人民币实际升值。另外,分地区的面板数据分析同样证实了上述影响的存在,表明劳动力价格扭曲是影响人民币实际汇率的重要因素。     

劳动力市场分割理论及其中国现实问题综述

从劳动力市场发展历史来看,劳动力市场的分割一般分为两种情形:一种是横向的劳动力市场分割,另一种是纵向的劳动力市场分割。文章针对中外学者对此的不同看法及其现实问题展开讨论,试图对劳动力市场分割理论及其在中国的问题进行小结和思考。     

中国劳动力市场分割和工资决定分析

我国是农业大国也是农民大国。改革开放以来,城市的就业需求和就业缺口逐渐增大,特别是一些比较基础建设岗位更是供不应求。与此同时,由于农村人多地少的国情限制,农民通过种地获得的收益微乎其微,通过农村工业和农村服务业获得的岗位也非常有限。因此在我国形成了一股“民工潮”,农村的大量劳动力外出务工,他们在城市获得了比农村多得多的工资收益,但在现实情况中也出现了一些不可忽略的问题。农民工虽然和城市工从事着同样的工作,但同工不同酬,同工不同社会保障的问题较为严重。     

Real Interest Rate and Labor Market Performance around the World

This article studies the effects of the real interest rate on labor market performance. Using a much larger sample of countries and more indicators of labor market performance than have been used in previous articles, it finds that a rise in the real interest rate increases the unemployment rate, raises the share of long‐term unemployed, and reduces the employment rate. The magnitude of these effects is very small in the short run but much more pronounced—though still fairly small—in the long run. Young people are disproportionately affected. The results are robust to variations in specification.     

Real Exchange Rate in China：A Long-run Perspective

This paper investigates the RMB exchange rate from a long‐run viewpoint. Whether China's rapid economic growth brought about real exchange rate appreciation between 1975 and 2002 is empirically examined, based on a supply‐side model, the Balassa—Semuelson Hypothesis (BSH). The same test is conducted on Japan, Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia and India. Our result indicates that the BSH only exists where the industrial structure has been upgraded and the economy has been successfully transformed from an agricultural economy to a manufacturing economy. Interestingly, China, among those where the BSH does not present, appears to be upgrading its industrial and trade structure. We then try to answer the question of why past rapid growth has no significant relationship with the RMB real exchange rate and what factors are underlying the trend of the RMB real exchange rate. We expect an appreciating trend of RMB real exchange rate in the foreseeable future, presuming that China's industrial upgrading process continues and the factors pertaining to the BSH's prediction, such as rise of wage rates in both tradables and nontradables, become more significant. (Edited by Xiaoming Feng)     

基于文凭的劳动力市场分割和高学历失业

本文假设最终品具有Leontif生产函数,需要高端和低端两种中间品。任何劳动者生产低端中间品的效率都是相同的,而高能力者生产高端中间品的效率更高。能力越高者,其文凭获取成本越低,因而是否获得文凭具有信号传递功能。进一步假设劳动力市场是基于文凭分割的,即无文凭者从事低端中间品生产,有文凭者可在从事高端和低端中间品生产之间进行选择,并能享受额外的福利租金。分析表明,如果文凭获取难度太大,经济体将会出现文凭持有者相对不足的结构性失业;反之,如果高校大幅扩招(文凭获取难度下降)而与文凭关联的福利租金却又很大时,经济体将会出现文凭持有者相对过剩的结构性失业,即造成近年来引人注目的高学历失业现象。     

Disaggregate Real Exchange Rate Behaviour

In this paper, we re-examine the “PPP Puzzle” using sectoral disaggregated data. Specifically, we first analyse the mean reversion speeds of real exchange rates for a number of different sectors in 11 industrial economies and then focus on relating these rates to variables identified in the literature as key determinants of CPI-based real exchange rates, namely: the trade balance, productivity and the mark up. In particular, we seek to understand to what extent the relationships existing at the aggregate level are borne out at the disaggregate level. We believe that this analysis can help shed light on the PPP puzzle.

我国农民工劳动合约签订率低的原因分析——基于劳动力市场分割和产业分割的分析框架

劳动合约签订是劳动保护的重要形式,但我国农民工劳动合约签订率却只是在2008年《劳动合同法》实施后有暂时较大幅度的上扬,此后随时间推移却几近停滞。文章以劳动力市场分割和产业分割框架为基础,构建了不同劳动力市场特征和产业组织特征组合的四象限分析框架,探讨了不同象限中劳动合约的运行机制,并结合我国边缘产业和农民工现状,就劳动合约签订问题建立了一个简单的博弈模型。分析得出,在边缘产业与次级劳动力市场的组合下,农民工劳动合约签订存在着组织失灵、市场失灵和政府失灵三重困境,这是我国农民工劳动合同签约率停滞不前的主要原因。文章最后提出了相应的结论和政策建议。     

人民币实际汇率与中国就业——基于内生劳动力供给模型的实证研究

本文首先在个体跨期最优理论模型中引入内生劳动力供给因素,建立以中国就业为研究对象的理论模型和相应的计量模型,然后运用Johansen协整分析法、Granger因果检验法及VEC模型探讨1985～2007年期间人民币实际汇率对中国就业的影响。结果表明:长期而言,人民币实际汇率贬值将促进中国就业,人民币实际汇率升值则会抑制就业;而世界实际利率与中国就业显著正相关。在短期内,人民币汇率调整对就业影响存在一定的滞后性,甚至会出现与长期关系相反的现象;世界实际利率与中国就业关系与长期相左。根据上述分析结果,本文提出了相关的政策建议。     

Government Purchases and the Real Exchange Rate

Recent empirical research documents that an exogenous rise in government purchases in a given country triggers a persistent depreciation of its real exchange rate—which raises an important puzzle, as standard macro models predict an appreciation of the real exchange rate. This paper presents a simple model with limited international risk sharing that can account for the empirical real exchange rate response. When faced with a country-specific rise in government purchases, local households experience a negative wealth effect; they thus work harder, and domestic output increases. Under balanced trade (financial autarky) this supply-side effect is so strong that the terms of trade worsen, and the real exchange rate depreciates. In a bonds-only economy, an increase in government purchases triggers a real exchange rate depreciation, if the rise in government purchases is sufficiently persistent and/or labor supply is highly elastic.     

Productivity and the Euro-Dollar Real Exchange Rate

This paper analyses how productivity differentials between the United States and the euro area drive the euro-dollar real exchange rate. We derive impulse responses from a two-sector new open economy macro (NOEM) model. These are used as sign restrictions to identify a structural vector autoregression. Our results show that the Balassa–Samuelson effect, through traded sector productivity shocks, is less important in explaining the variation in the euro-dollar exchange rate than are demand and nominal shocks. In particular, productivity can explain part of the appreciation of the dollar in the late 1990s only to the extent that it created a boost to aggregate demand in the United States. JEL no. F41, F31     

Nontradable Goods and the Real Exchange Rate

How important are nontradable goods and distribution costs to explain real exchange rate dynamics? We answer this question by estimating a general equilibrium model with intermediate and final tradable and nontradable goods. We find that the estimated model can match characteristics of the data that are relevant in international macroeconomics, such as real exchange rate persistence and volatility, and the correlation between the real exchange rate and other variables. The distinction between tradable and nontradable goods is key to understand real exchange rate fluctuations, but the introduction of distribution costs is not. Nontradable sector technology shocks explain about one third of real exchange rate volatility. We also show that, in order to explain the low correlation between the ratio of relative consumption and the real exchange rates across countries, demand shocks are necessary.