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Brown TC Werling KA Walker BC Burgdorfer RJ Shields JJ 《Healthcare financial management》2012,66(3):114-8, 120
Healthcare reform will impact hospital consolidation in three key areas: Payment rates will decrease, indirectly encouraging consolidation by forcing hospitals to find new ways to reduce costs and increase negotiating clout with suppliers and payers. The cost of doing business will increase as hospitals spend more on compliance, technology, and physician employment. The ACO model will encourage hospital network formation by rewarding integrated healthcare systems that can reduce costs and improve quality. 相似文献
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We examine whether analyst forecasts influence investors’ perceptions of the credibility of a good news management earnings forecast. We hypothesize that the effect of analyst forecasts will depend on whether the analyst forecast confirms management’s forecast and the extent to which management’s forecast is consistent with the prior earnings trend. Findings indicate that the positive effect of a confirming analyst forecast is greater when the management forecast is trend inconsistent than when it is trend consistent. The negative effect of a disconfirming analyst forecast does not differ based on management forecast trend consistency. 相似文献
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We review the recent trends in investment management and performance research and highlight the fields expected to develop further in the future. The trend to adapt the classic CAPM and factor models seems likely to continue, with the drive for realistic factors, which best proxy the drivers of investment performance, playing a key role. The search for skill, based on enhanced benchmarks, is also a developing area, with new concepts of identification and verification at the fore. The availability of more qualitative data has allowed corporate finance themes such as agency conflict and incentives to be explored. These are some of the areas where we have seen major developments in recent years and where we expect to see continuing development. 相似文献
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Thomas J. Chermack 《Futures》2007,39(1):1-15
This article outlines a relationship between scenario construction and theory building. This is done in two key ways: (1) it is argued that a deficiency of theory and theory building exists with regard to the phenomenon of scenario construction and (2) it is also argued that scenario construction may constitute a form of theory building. These arguments are developed using foundational works that label both scenario construction and theory building as processes of disciplined imagination. Drawing from other core works in management and organizational change perspectives the argument is developed that scenario construction might most appropriately be thought of as a process of developing and changing theories-in-use. Conclusions and implications for management professionals are drawn. 相似文献
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In the last few decades, scenarios have provided a way of analysing the implications of alternative futures, especially as they might be impacted by new technologies. This has been no less true of ambient intelligence (AmI), which may be embedded everywhere in the not so distant future. Most of the scenarios developed by AmI enthusiasts have been rather ‘sunny’, showing how the new technologies promise to make our lives more efficient, enjoyable, productive, enriching. A European project, called Safeguards in a World of Ambient Intelligence (SWAMI), deliberately developed ‘dark scenarios’ to highlight the threats to privacy, identity, trust, security and inclusiveness posed by the new technologies. The SWAMI consortium also developed a methodological structure for deconstructing and analysing the dark scenarios. This paper takes that approach a step further by applying it to a cultural artefact, partly to test the validity, utility, applicability of the SWAMI methodology to a scenario not constructed by the consortium and partly to show how some cultural artefacts can be regarded as scenarios in their own right as well as warnings about future technologies. The cultural artefact chosen here was the Steven Spielberg film Minority Report, because it features so many AmI technologies and draws attention to the issues that have been the focus of the SWAMI project. 相似文献
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2010年7月,标准普尔发布了题为《贷款质量风险上升不大可能重创中国银行业的原因》的报告,报告对中国银行业不良贷款率、盈利能力等问题做了分析 相似文献
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Geurt Hupkes 《Futures》1973,5(5):457-468
In contrast to conventional forecasts usually based on constant cost projections, the author considers the future of the motorcar as depending on dynamic changes in the pattern of costs and values related to private car ownership and use. The social, environmental, material and technological factors most influencing the future cost of motoring are analysed, and desirable policies are examined. The results are projected into two scenarios, high and low, of the future conditions for private motoring. The analysis is focused on the Netherlands, but is generally applicable to other Western European countries. 相似文献
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This article outlines work in progress on a study of technological choice in the context of North-South development. Its main purpose is to describe the methodology being developed in the pilot phase of the study. This is of interest because it links together a number of analytic techniques—sociopolitical scenario analysis, macroeconomic modelling, and certain microstudies. The methodological problems are general to much forecasting activity. 相似文献
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Primary energy sources exhibited regular long-term logistic substitution trends from the mid-19th century through the third quarter of the 20th century. This analysis, based on an extension of the Fisher-Pry substitution model, accounted for the observed historical shifts of primary energy use from sources of wood, coal, oil, natural gas, and nuclear. In the mid-1980s the substitution dynamics was replaced by a relatively constant contribution from oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear power, and hydropower. However, a major factor in energy use dynamics in this recent period was substitution of conservation and efficiency for actual fuel use. The energy efficiency is measured as the ratio of economic activity to the rate of energy use (energy intensity). To incorporate these data into the logistic analysis, a method for estimating the fraction of energy saved by the increased efficiency was used. With this interpretation, energy efficiency fits within the substitution model. Furthermore, to identify indications of future energy scenarios, as well as to test the logistic substitution analysis, another statistical approach using ternary diagrams was developed. The consistent results from both logistic substitution and statistical analysis are compared with recent energy projections, trends in decarbonization, Kondratieff waves, and other efficiency measures. While the specific future mix of renewables and nuclear energy sources is uncertain, the more general logistic dynamics pattern of the energy system seems to be continuing as it has for about 150 years now. 相似文献
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中国证监会研究中心主任祁斌分析中国资本市场现状及发展趋势 第一,去年以来我国资本市场呈现快速发展的态势,并进入新的时期,经过十几年的努力,我国资本市场的发展取得了巨大的成就,并成长为全球最令人瞩目的市场. 相似文献
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《Futures》2016
This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society’). A less likely scenario is called ‘The reappearence of the sea − The aquarial society’. The purpose of the scenario writing has been to provide strategic tools for societal actors who to create economic growth and jobs, particularly regional governments and firms. Suggestions concerning regional industrial policy and firm actions are included in the article. 相似文献