Openness and the Effects of Fiscal and Monetary Policy Shocks on Real Output in Nigeria (1960–2003)*

Abstract: This study investigates the effects of monetary and fiscal policies on the real output growth in a small open economy. It is a country‐specific, time series study that verifies the implication of increasing economic openness on the efficacy of monetary and fiscal policy. A modified GARCH model was used to estimate the anticipated and unanticipated shocks. Two measures of fiscal and monetary shocks were combined with openness and real oil price shocks in a VECM model to assess the effects of anticipated and unanticipated policy shocks on the output equations. The empirical results showed that anticipated and unanticipated fiscal and monetary shocks had no significant positive effects on real output. This suggests that the open macroeconomic version of the policy ineffectiveness proposition was valid for both monetary and fiscal policy shocks in Nigeria. This is in consonance with earlier works in this area. Furthermore, the degree of openness and oil price shocks had a negative implication on the efficacy of macroeconomic policy in Nigeria; also in agreement with the Dutch Disease Syndrome. Finally, the policy implication of this study therefore is that trade liberalization policy should be implemented cautiously. The Nigerian economy is weak to withstand the unwholesome consequences of full economic integration.     

Money growth and the employment aspirations of black Americans

Conclusion Irrespective of other economic initiatives in the area of fiscal and regulatory policies that may be required, there will not likely be an improvement in the employment situation for black Americans unless policy-makers gain a better handle on the conduct of monetary policy. The implication is that the welfare of black Americans tends to improve most when the economy is experiencing high and steady rates of economic growth. The single most important tool for achieving that growth is a highly stable rate of monetary growth that is roughly in line with the longterm growth of the economy.     

Velocity Effects of Increased Variability in Monetary Growth in Egypt: A Test of Friedman's Velocity Hypothesis

Abstract: This paper tests Friedman's hypothesis that increased variability in the growth of money supply causes velocity to decline, using Egyptian data from the period 1960–99. The monetary aggregates M1 and M2 are decomposed into anticipated and unanticipated components and the variability of money growth is computed as the standard deviation of five years of monetary growth rates. Cointegration tests show that there is a statistically significant long‐run relationship between the variability in money growth and velocity, for both M1 and M2. However, while increased variability in the growth of M2 is found to be associated with lower velocity — supporting Friedman's velocity hypothesis — increased variability in the growth of M1 seems to have no influence on velocity, possibly because the definition of M1 has changed over time. The findings also suggest that anticipated movements in M2 volatility are not neutral, in the sense that they do affect velocity. An important implication is that the scope for discretionary monetary policy in Egypt is somewhat circumscribed in the short run. However, if the Central Bank of Egypt were to make its decisions more transparent and pre‐announce its policies, then velocity would be more predictable and monetary policy more potent.     

基于VAR模型的我国货币政策有效性实证分析

货币政策有效性包括工具的有效性、传导机制的效率以及能否达到预期目标,而评价货币政策是否有效的最终依据是货币政策的实施效果.文章构建了测度货币政策有效性的VAK模型,利用脉冲响应函数分析了相关变量对CPI影响的强弱程度及其对货币政策发生效力的滞后时间,认为我国的货币政策是基本有效的,货币供给量M0是近期货币政策中较合适的货币政策工具,并提出了将价格型工具和数量型工具混合使用以实现货币政策预期目标的建议.     

DYNAMIC EFFECTS OF MONETARY POLICY SHOCKS IN MALAWI

This paper sets out to investigate the process through which monetary policy affects economic activity in Malawi. Using innovation accounting in a structural vector autoregressive model, it is established that monetary authorities in Malawi employ hybrid operating procedures and pursue both price stability and high growth and employment objectives. Two operating targets of monetary policy are identified, viz., bank rate and reserve money, and it is demonstrated that the former is a more effective measure of monetary policy than the latter. The study also illustrates that bank lending, exchange rates and aggregate money supply contain important additional information in the transmission process of monetary policy shocks in Malawi. Furthermore, it is shown that the floatation of the Malawi Kwacha in February 1994 had considerable effects on the country's monetary transmission process. In the post‐1994 period, the role of exchange rates became more conspicuous than before although its impact was weakened, and the importance of aggregate money supply and bank lending in transmitting monetary policy impulses was enhanced. Overall, the monetary transmission process evolved from a weak, blurred process to a somewhat strong, less ambiguous mechanism.     

Fed funds futures and the news

The objective of this paper is to determine whether the observed variation in the response of market interest rates over the 1990s to the news about employment is a result, at least in part, of changes in expectations for monetary policy. Fed funds futures rates, which embody predictions for the expected monthly average of the daily effective funds rate, are used to capture market participants' expectations for monetary policy in the face of employment surprises. It is found that unanticipated employment announcements have a positive and statistically significant impact on one- and three-month-ahead fed funds futures rates and the size of the impact declines over the 1990s, thereby coinciding with a noticeable decline in the frequency of adjustment in the fed funds target rate.     

Reactions to Shocks and Monetary Policy Regimes: Inflation Targeting Versus Flexible Currency Board in Sub‐Saharan Africa

The paper examines the monetary policy actions through which central banks in sub‐Saharan Africa have tried to eliminate the negative impacts of the shocks facing their economies. We compare two different monetary policy regimes: a currency board regime (in the CFA zone) and an inflation targeting policy regime (Ghana and South Africa) when central banks respond to demand, supply, and fiscal shocks. We extend the usual forecasting and policy analysis system models to replicate the economic features of these economies during the period 2002–12 and to evaluate the impact of several policies in response to these shocks. We find that both policies are inappropriate in helping the economies escape from the effects of negative demand shocks, both are essential when negative shocks to primary balance occur, while inflation targeting dominates the currency board regime as a strategy to cope with positive shocks to inflation.     

Are Central Bankers Currency Manipulators?

The term “currency manipulator” has been used by the United States to describe the monetary practices of nations such as China and Japan and by Germany to describe U.S. monetary policy. This charge transcends monetary regimes and includes both traditional monetary policy and that in the service of industrial or developmental strategies that center on export led growth. While the latter clearly has a negative effect on employment and economic growth in the rest of the world, the increased international mobility of capital, combined with the wide-spread use of flexible exchange rates, has led to the same external effects from the normal conduct of monetary policy. Acknowledging and dealing with these negative external effects will lead to improved and less tension-filled international economic relations than calling nations “currency manipulators.”.     

Do Monetary Policy Announcements Affect Exchange Rate Returns and Volatility of Returns? Some Evidence from High‐Frequency Intra‐Day South African Data

This paper examines the temporal effect of domestic monetary policy surprises on both returns and volatility of returns of the South African rand/U.S. dollar exchange rate. The analysis in this “event study” proceeds using intra‐day minute‐by‐minute exchange rate data, repo rate data from the South African Reserve Bank's scheduled monetary policy announcements, and market consensus repo rate forecasts. A carefully selected sample over the period August 2003 to November 2017 ensures that the change in monetary policy is exogenous to the exchange rate. We find statistically and economically significant responses in intra‐day high‐frequency South African rand/U.S. dollar exchange rate returns and volatility of exchange rate returns to domestic interest rate surprises, but anticipated changes have no bearing on exchange rate returns and their volatility. The empirical results also indicate that there is an instantaneous response of the rand/dollar exchange rate to monetary policy surprises and that monetary policy news is an important determinant of the exchange rate until at least 42 minutes after the pronouncement – suggesting a high degree of market “efficiency” in its mechanical sense (although not necessarily in the deeper economic‐informational sense) in processing this information. Essentially, the asymmetric GARCH results exhibit no leverage effects – positive and negative information shocks have symmetric effects on conditional variance.     

我国货币政策周期与经济周期之间的关联性研究

改革开放以来,我国的货币政策出现了多次紧缩和扩张之间的交替,形成了显著的货币政策周期。下行经济周期往往都是发生在货币紧缩政策结束之后。为了度量货币政策作用效果,我们需要建立货币政策周期与经济周期之间的内在关联机制,并从众多的反映宏观经济状态的指标从中选取合适的预测指标来反映其内在机制。通过实证检验发现,我国自1996年以来共出现了3次产出增长率的下降,而这3次产出降低都发生在紧缩性货币政策结束之后。这说明我国货币政策周期与经济周期之间存在密切关联,货币政策操作也存在相机选择的内生属性,并且M1同比增速和金融机构新增短期贷款能够更准确地预测在紧缩性货币政策实施之后是否会出现下行经济周期。     

Responding to a Monetary Superpower: Investigating the Behavioral Spillovers of U.S. Monetary Policy

Between 2002 and 2006, the Federal Reserve set interest rates significantly below the rates suggested by well-known monetary policy rules. There is a growing body of research suggesting that this helped fuel an excess of liquidity in the U.S. that contributed to the 2008 worldwide financial crash. It is less well known that a number of other central banks also lowered interest rates during this period. An important question, then, is what role the Federal Reserve played in influencing other central banks to alter their own monetary policies, which could have magnified the Fed’s actions in creating global liquidity. This paper addresses the issue by showing how spillovers in central bank behavior occur in theoretical rational expectations models. It then establishes empirically how U.S. monetary policy actions affect the actions of other major central banks, particularly in terms of interest rates and currency interventions. The models and data suggest that the U.S. lowering its policy rate, either in general or in reference to a monetary policy rule, influences other central banks to lower their own policy rates and intervene in currency markets, even when controlling for worldwide macroeconomic trends. It thus appears that U.S. actions were a factor in the worldwide lowering of interest rates and the increase in currency reserves in the early 2000s that may have contributed to the subsequent global liquidity boom.     

Optimal Monetary Policy in China

Using the structural vector autoregression model, we estimate the current responses of monetary policy to contemporaneous shocks from macroeconomic variables. Our findings indicate that the People's Bank of China responded to inflation and output changes, but did not react to asset price fluctuations during the period from January 1997 to March 2010. The optimal monetary responses to exogenous shocks are also examined. It is revealed that using asset prices to formulate monetary policy would not help to improve monetary authorities' performance in lowering the volatilities of output growth and inflation while keeping output growth and inflation in their safety zones. The effectiveness of monetary policy and fiscal policy in reacting to external shocks is also discussed.     

Employment and Earnings: A Case Study of Urban Detroit

This paper investigates the roles of manufacturing employment, neighborhood poverty, and family structure in determining wages among Detroit, MI workers, just prior to the current economic crisis. Employment in manufacturing has been crucial for blacks and whites: 39% of black and of white men in the Detroit metropolitan area worked in manufacturing in 2000. Regression analysis in this paper estimates employment in manufacturing raised wages 15.8% for all workers in the metropolitan area, 24.4% for blacks and 13.8% for whites. It finds a higher wage penalty (4.7%) for blacks in non-manufacturing industries than is found when manufacturing sector jobs are included (2.6%). Wage returns to education were greater in the non-manufacturing employment sector, especially for blacks. Residence in the poorest central city neighborhoods reduced wages significantly for white manufacturing and non-manufacturing workers. Its coefficient was insignificant for black workers. Gender and marital status effects on wages differed between blacks and whites in magnitude: White women suffered a larger penalty for their sex than black women (22.6 versus 9.6%) yet black men enjoyed a greater return to marriage than white men (27.5 versus 25.0%). Controlling for manufacturing reduced the gender wage gap and the returns to marriage for men. These findings suggest greater accessibility for women; and lower returns to marriage in non-manufacturing sectors. Among employed blacks access to manufacturing jobs has been their main source of decent wages. The adverse effects of the industry??s job loss in the 1980s and 1990s impacted all Detroit residents. Other high wage industries have employed relatively few blacks, have not paid them well; and have suffered job loss and slow growth over the period. Education could have raised wages for non-manufacturing workers, but not as much as access to manufacturing jobs. Today as in 2000, Detroit??s residents desperately need job creation or relocation to the central city; and job training and anti-discrimination policy enforcement throughout the metro-area. All of these would be necessary to offset job loss and reduce inequality and poverty in Detroit. The extent to which blacks will benefit from 2010?C11 improvements in manufacturing employment in Detroit depends upon whether private companies and the state provide equal access to the jobs and the training new technologies require.     

Real wages, employment and macroeconomic policy in a structuralist model for South Africa

It is now commonplace to argue that in South Africa, like manydeveloping countries, higher wages will lower employment. Thispaper shows that it is difficult to extricate the relationshipbetween wages, employment and output from the macropolicy environment.Dynamic computable general equilibrium simulations show thatthe employment effects of nominal wage increases depends oninduced monetary and fiscal policy when there is monetary 'policydominance'. While wage-led growth is inefficient, increasingthe wages of unskilled workers can improve the distributionof income, when the induced changes are neutralised.     

Bank dependency on foreign funding and global liquidity shocks: The importance of US monetary policy for a developing country

We examine international spillover effects of US monetary policy on bank lending in Cambodia, using unique data about loan disbursements and the funding structures of Cambodian banks from 2013Q1 to 2019Q2. The banking sector in a developing country is likely dependent on foreign funding, while the dependency could be the source of vulnerability to international monetary and economic conditions. We empirically document that US monetary policy is likely to be transmitted to Cambodian bank lending through foreign funding. We also document that Cambodian banks change their risk-taking behavior in response to the spillover effects of US monetary policy. Furthermore, these results are robust for US monetary policy, but weak and not robust for the monetary policies of the Cambodian bank’s major shareholders’ home countries, suggesting that US monetary policy should be primarily taken into account in supervising banks that are reliant on foreign funding, in addition to domestic economic conditions.     

The Differential Effects of Output Shocks on Unemployment Rates by Race and Gender

This article employs a recently developed time-series econometric technique to examine the magnitude and persistence of unanticipated changes in real output on unemployment rates by race and gender. Through the use of generalized impulse response analysis, we measure the extent to which the behavior of unemployment rates of white males, black males, black females, and white females differ in response to real output shocks. The results suggest that, while real output growth reduces the unemployment rate of all demographic groups, the effect is larger and more persistent for blacks than whites and for males than for females. The findings are particularly important for understanding the demographic impacts of policy initiatives aimed at inducing changes in real output growth.     

Do conservative governments make a difference in monetary policy? A study of the U.S. and the U.K.

This paper offers an empirical test of the Simon's proposition: Do conservative governments make a difference in monetary policy? Using quarterly data on the inflation rate and the GDP gap, the authors test the hypothesis during the tenure of two regimes: conservatives and non-conservatives, and for two countries, the U.S. and the U.K. Under the assumption that the monetary authority followed a Taylor rule, they evaluate monetary policies pursued by alternative regimes in the two countries. Alternatively, they assume that the monetary authority adjusts money growth in response to deviations of inflation and GDP from their target levels. The estimation results were mixed. The Simon's hypothesis was supported in the U.K. during the Thatcher regime, but not in the U.S. during the Reagan's tenure. The findings for the U.S. in contrast to those obtained for the U.K. indirectly validate the Simon's contention that monetary policy in the U.S. is subject to manipulation by interest groups“Perhaps the ultimate test of the conservative status of government is its willingness to pursue stable monetary policy.”William E. Simon, 1980, p. 8     

Do black and white women hold different jobs in the same occupation? A critical analysis of the clerical and service sectors

Employing 1960 and 1981 census data at the three-digit level, the study finds that black and white women were employed at different jobs in the predominantly female clerical and service occupations in both 1960 and 1981. However, there appears to be a slight reduction in black female job dissimilarity with white females between 1960 and 1981 in both occupations. Moreover, while employment of black women, relative to white women, in 1960 was observed to be generally skewed toward the low-paying, low-status jobs in clerical and service occupations, there was little evidence of this trend by 1981. The present results, then, complement previous findings at the more aggregative two-digit level of black female occupational advancement since the mid-1960s.     

The Plight of African American Women: Employed and Unemployed

Understanding employment for African American women through the lens of neoclassical economics may not be best to help understand their plight. Their pay and the available employment has not been equal to that of men and even more so, African American women have lower paying jobs compared to their white counterparts, despite their achievement of higher levels of education. This paper looks at unemployment rates across the nation and then centers the discussion on black women in the context of the disparities over the past three decades. It combines the types of employment and wages that they have endured in context to white women during the same period of time. It uses Geographical Information Systems to underscore the concentration of income and race and the types of employment in those areas. It then provides some policy recommendations for the future.     

Testing policy effectiveness during COVID-19: An NK-DSGE analysis

We examine the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy in mitigating the impact of COVID-19 in India using the NK-DSGE framework. In terms of policy effectiveness, our findings imply that expansionary monetary policy is effective in reviving economic growth both from the demand side and supply side. In contrast, expansionary fiscal policy is effective only from the supply side. Our findings recommend the implementation of optimal policy mix in a coordinated and staggered framework for effective mitigation of ill-effects of the COVID-19, such as reviving employment and capacity utilization to its pre-pandemic level with minimal inflationary effects.