The Impact of Horizontal Mergers on Rivals: Gains to Being Left Outside a Merger

It is commonly perceived that firms do not want to be outsiders to a merger between competitor firms. We instead argue that it is beneficial to be a non-merging rival firm to a large horizontal merger. Using a sample of mergers with expert identification of relevant rivals and the event-study methodology, we find rivals generally experience positive abnormal returns at the merger announcement date. We also find that the stock reaction of rivals to merger events is not sensitive to merger waves; hence, 'future acquisition probability' does not drive the positive abnormal returns of rivals. Further, we find the positive (or non-negative) abnormal returns of rivals to be robust when considering heterogeneity in merger and rival characteristics.     

论连续并购与间隔并购样本的差异

在已有对并购的研究中,学者们没有细分连续并购样本和间隔并购样本。他们大多数采取两种方式:一种是把连续并购剔除在外,另一种是把连续并购和间隔并购放在一起,致使我们的并购研究无法突破。本研究选取四大类别熵,即:支持型熵、压力型熵、还原型熵、氧化型熵作为变量,利用参数和非参数检验进行样本的差异检验。最后发现:连续并购和间隔并购有实质性的区别。这给我们今后做并购研究的样本选取提供了有利的支持。     

Consolidation in the financial services industry: Are there industry gains for acquisitions of security firms?

We examine the revaluation of target security firms, their respective acquirers, both banks and non-banks, and their corresponding rivals before and after the major consolidation wave of 1994 to 1997. We find that target security firms as well as their respective acquirers are favorably revalued at the time of their acquisitions. The valuation effects are more favorable for non-bank acquirers and for acquirers with more growth potential and a lower degree of financial leverage. This suggests that investors expect greater synergies for mergers by better capitalized, faster growing, non-bank acquirers. In contrast to previous merger studies that generally find negative wealth effects for acquiring firms, cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) are on average positive for acquirers, targets, and portfolios of competing security firms, with the highest positive CARs for targets.     

Executive compensation,method of payment and abnormal returns to bidding firms at takeover announcements

This study investigates the association between method of payment, long-term performance plans, managerial stockholdings and abnormal returns to bidding firms at takeover announcements, using a cross-sectional regression methodology. Previous studies have examined each of these factors separately. The results indicate that firms with long-term performance plans and high managerial stockholdings in cash offers experience significantly higher abnormal returns at the announcement of mergers prior to 1980. The study provides additional evidence in explaining the previous conflicting results (Jensen and Ruback, 1985), examining the stock market reaction of bidding firms at merger announcements.     

Acquiring firms' stock returns: Methods of payment,change in leverage,and management ownership

This study examines the effects of the method of payment, change in leverage, and management equity ownership on the acquiring firm's stock returns around the initial announcement date of the merger. Results indicate that stockholders of mergers financed with stocks suffer significant losses. These losses are larger when management ownership is low and smaller in mergers that resulted in acquiring firm leverage decreases. Stockholders of acquiring firms involved in cash mergers gain significant abnormal returns, provided that acquiring firms increase their leverage and that managerial ownership is high. When management equity ownership is low, leverage has no effect on stock returns. When management ownership is high, mergers which resulted in acquiring firm leverage increases have significant positive effects, and those which resulted in acquiring firm leverage decreases have negative but insignificant effects.     

Business cycle and aggregate industry mergers

This paper tests the relationship between industry-level mergers and business cycle using panel tests that allow us to control for macro-economic and industry-level determinants of merger activity. We find robust evidence that both related and unrelated industry-level mergers are pro-cyclical. However, the evidence is asymmetric between related and unrelated mergers. We also find strong evidence in support of two major theories of merger activity that have been proposed and tested in the existing literature, namely, neoclassical theory and behavioral theory. The proxies of both neoclassical and behavioral theories explain merger activity in general; however, the pro-cyclicality of mergers is not fully captured by any of these proxies, individually or collectively.     

Is economic efficiency the driving force behind mergers?

Some economists routinely argue against government regulation that limits the number of mergers and acquisitions. They believe that, as a matter of empirical fact, almost all mergers enhance economic efficiency. The possibility that some mergers do not create wealth but merely redistribute it is ignored. We study all companies delisted from the New York Stock Exchange for reason of merger since 1926. We find that economic efficiency cannot easily explain merger waves. Contrary to the disciplinary hypothesis, acquisition targets are not, in large majority, poor stock market performers. We also report evidence consistent with stock market undervaluation as a merger motive.     

Market reaction to large bank merger announcements in oligopolies

This paper evaluates the individual and rival stock price reactions to large bank merger announcements and subsequent regulatory rejection in an oligopoly. The results show that the announcements produce significant positive abnormal returns for the merger candidates. Regulatory obstacles and denial of the proposed mergers produce significant negative returns. Analysis of the rivals’ reactions doesn’t produce consistent significant results. This suggests that the market reactions for the merging banks results are driven by expected increases in efficiencies. The rivals’ reaction is explained by the fact that the market would remain contestable after the mergers since the offered products are homogeneous.(JEL G14, G34)     

Abandoned mergers and the market for corporate control

This paper investigates the financial performance cf a sample of UK firms involved in abandoned mergers during the period 1977–81. Predictions derived from a broadly neoclassical theory of merger activity are tested empirically and implications for the theory of the firm are discussed. Using an extension of discriminant analysis for firms in our samples we cannot find any evidence to suggest that the market for corporate control exercises discipline in completed mergers or in abandoned ones. In the latter case we suggest that the motives for takeovers tend to reflect managerial rather than shareholder interests.     

The impact of access to consumer data on the competitive effects of horizontal mergers and exclusive dealing

We examine the influence of firms’ ability to employ individualized pricing on the welfare consequences of horizontal mergers. In a two‐to‐one merger, the merger reduces consumer surplus more when firms can price discriminate based on individual preferences compared to when they cannot. However, the opposite holds true in a three‐to‐two merger, in which the reduction in consumer surplus is substantially lower with individualized pricing than with uniform pricing. Further, the merger requires an even smaller marginal cost reduction to justify when an upstream data provider can make exclusive offers for its data to downstream firms. We also show that exclusive contracts for consumer data pose significant antitrust concerns independent of merger considerations. Implications for vertical integration and data mergers are drawn.     

To merge or not to merge? The impact of union merger decisions on workers' representation in Germany

Union mergers have been widely studied in a variety of countries; however, little is known about their impact on union effectiveness. This article draws on in‐depth interviews with officials and works councillors from four German unions, as well as on a representative survey of German works councils, to analyse how a union's merger status shapes its effectiveness in three spheres of activity: political lobbying, collective bargaining and establishment‐level interest representation. We compare two cases of merger with two cases of continued organisational independence, finding that merger outcomes for individual unions vary considerably across our three union functions.     

Market value,market share,and mergers: Evidence from a panel of U.S. firms

Improving shareholder value has often been cited as a merger determinant. Because mergers create larger firms and less competition, they may increase shareholder value through higher market share and stock‐market value. We investigate merger impacts on firms' stock‐market value and market share. We construct panel data from 4 different data sources on public merging and non‐merging U.S. manufacturing firms for 1980–2003. Instrumental variables and factors such as R&D, patents, and citations control for endogeneity. We find that mergers are positively correlated with stock‐market value and market share.     

Market Optimism and Merger Waves

We argue that stock and bond market booms and merger waves are both driven by increases in optimism in financial markets and discuss two behavioral hypotheses, the managerial discretion and overvaluation hypotheses that claim that merger waves are driven by market optimism. Empirical support for the managerial theory is provided by evidence that the amounts of assets acquired increase as optimism in financial markets increases and that the returns to acquiring companies are inversely related to market optimism at the time of mergers. Our measures of market optimism also explain managerial choices of finance for mergers. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

New evidence on shareholder wealth effects in bank mergers during 1980-2000

This paper employs two unique bank event study methodologies to calculate abnormal returns for bidder, target and combined firms. The first methodology is a modified market model that controls for shocks common to the banking industry. The second is an EGARCH (1, 1) model that adjusts for the violated regression assumptions of the traditional market model event study. The results of both methodologies reveal that target shareholders enjoy significantly positive abnormal returns, whereas the bidder shareholders experience significantly negative abnormal returns. Overall, announcements of bank mergers generate positive wealth effects for the combined shareholders. However, the evidence presented in this paper underscores the importance of the choice of models describing stock returns in examining the impact of bank mergers.     

The role of human resource management in cross-border mergers and acquisitions

Cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) have become the dominant mode of growth for firms seeking competitive advantage in an increasingly complex and global business economy. Although human resource management (HRM) can play a value-adding role in the merger process, existing research and evidence does not clearly demonstrate how it can do so. This paper addresses the neglected human side of M&As by providing a strategic fit framework to assess the link between M&A strategy and HRM strategy. Because cross-border M&As are of an order of magnitude more complex than domestic mergers, we examine contingencies in national contexts that influence outcomes in the merger process. We draw on recent empirical evidence to highlight HRM roles in terms of resources, processes and values that reflect the influence of both strategic fit and national context in the integration stage of cross-border M&A.     

上市公司担保公告的信息含量

本文在国内外相关研究文献回顾及中国资本市场特殊环境分析的基础上,对我国上市公司担保公告的市场反应进行了实证研究。结果发现,上市公司发布担保公告日前后出现显著为负的累积非正常报酬。研究中我们按担保方式、担保对象对担保公告进行分类,发现不同的担保公告蕴含不同的信息含量:互保、单向信用担保、非关联方担保这三种担保的市场反应为负;而具有反担保措施的担保公告市场反应为正;对于关联方担保,市场没有显著的反应。     

Government intervention in European mergers and acquisitions

The increasing globalization of economies has leveraged protectionist attitudes in different countries during the last decades. In the context of cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&A), national governments have intervened to “protect” big domestic firms and their industries from foreign bidders. Despite the potential for severe implications of these actions on the internationalization of firms and development of markets, the research in this area is relatively scarce, and we still know very little about the real causes and consequences of government intervention. In this paper, we study government opposition to cross-border European M&A during the period 1997–2017, an era of important changes in Europe. Using an event study methodology, we examine abnormal returns for targets and their rivals in the time period prior to actual intervention to gauge if investors perceive intervened deals as harmful events for the industry, which could justify government intervention. We use a hand collected sample of 1,574 EU15 rival firms for 48 mergers, of which 18 experience government intervention. Entropy balanced regression models show that rivals of intervened targets earn significantly lower returns relative to rivals of non-intervened targets on deal announcement. Nevertheless, rivals’ abnormal returns are not negative, suggesting that intervened deals are not perceived ex ante as harmful for industry competitiveness. The results are more consistent with investors’ ability to identify likely blocked deals, which puts downward pressure on abnormal returns to both the target companies and their rivals. These findings indicate that government interventions against foreign bidders seem to have an economic cost in the sector that is anticipated by the investors.     

Happiness sentiments and the prediction of cross-border country exchange-traded fund returns

This research examines whether social media (Twitter) happiness sentiment and country-level happiness sentiment indices predict cross-border ETF returns. To account for complicated associations between happiness sentiment and ETF returns, we use a quantile regression approach and find that Twitter and trading market (U.S.) happiness sentiments are strong predictors of future ETF returns, for which both have far greater predictive power than those of their home countries. Home country happiness indices exhibit asymmetric impacts across quantiles, suggesting the importance of trading country (U.S.) and Twitter happiness sentiments. Higher U.S. and home countries’ freedom to make life choices, absence of corruption perception, and confidence in national government precede higher ETF returns, while U.S. GDP, social support, health life expectancy, positive affect, and negative affect precede lower (abnormal) returns. We find that higher return quantile country ETFs provide a safe haven for U.S. investors during a U.S. bear market.     

Corporate governance and the returns to acquiring firms' shareholders: an international comparison

We examine the effects of mergers on the returns to acquiring companies' shareholders for a large sample of companies from both Anglo‐Saxon and non‐Anglo‐Saxon countries over the 1980s and 1990s. With the important exception of Japan, we find similar patterns of returns across both types of countries. For a sample of 9733 acquiring companies the mean percentage gain over a short window of 21 days is 0.6%. This picture changes dramatically as the market has more time to evaluate the mergers and/or the acquiring firms. After three years, acquirers' shareholders in the United States and continental Europe lost on average 19% of their market value compared to a portfolio of non‐merging firms in their size deciles and their two‐digit industry, in Canada, Australia and New Zealand roughly 16%, and in the four Scandinavian countries almost 15%. Further analysis indicates that some mergers are consistent with the hypothesis that mergers generate synergies, but that a majority of mergers in Continental Europe are explained by the managerial discretion and/or hubris hypothesis. Our findings also suggest that corporate governance institutions in the United States and the other Anglo‐Saxon countries lead to better investment performance than in continental Europe, when one confines one's attention to mergers. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How Does Education Affect the Earnings Distribution in Urban China?*

It is widely believed that investing in education could be an effective strategy to promote higher standards of living and equity. We empirically assess this claim by estimating returns to education across the whole earnings distribution in urban China and find supporting evidence. In particular, we find that returns to education are more pronounced for individuals in the lower tail of the distribution than for those in the upper tail and that returns to education are uniformly larger for women than men. We also find that returns to education increased over time across the whole earnings distribution.