Democracy,sustainability and dialogic accounting technologies: Taking pluralism seriously

There is wide-ranging recognition of the need for “new accountings” that foster democracy and facilitate more participatory forms of social organization. This is particularly evident in the sustainable development and social and environmental accounting literatures, with calls for more dialogic forms of accounting. However, there has been very little consideration of how “democracy” should be approached; and, in particular, the implications of any particular model of democracy for the kinds of accounting technologies that might be advocated. This paper seeks to contribute to the theoretical development of dialogic accounting and focuses on the sustainability arena for illustrative purposes. It draws on debates between deliberative and agonistic democrats in contemporary political theory to argue the case for an agonistic approach to dialogics; one that respects difference and takes interpretive and ideological conflicts seriously. In recognition of the ways in which power intrudes in social relations so as to deny heterogeneity and privilege certain voices, it seeks to promote a broadly critical pluralist approach. To this end, the paper proposes a set of key principles for dialogic accounting and draws on ecological economist Peter Söderbaum’s work on positional analysis applied to an existing accounting tool – the Sustainability Assessment Model (SAM) – to illustrate how such an approach might be operationalized. The paper also discusses limitations of the dialogic accounting concept and impediments to its implementation.     

Cephalon, Inc. Taking risk management theory seriously

Cephalon Inc., a biotech firm, bought call options on its own stock to meet its conditional cash flow needs. We analyze this decision by using the cash flow hedging concepts of Froot et al., (1993. Journal of Finance 5, 1629–1658). We identify the managerial analyses necessary to apply this theory and discuss managerial considerations absent from the theory. We find that managers consider deadweight costs of risk management, which theory tends to ignore. Theory provides little guidance in how to measure these and other deadweight costs. Finally, uncertainty about the availability of external financing and accounting considerations are critical considerations by managers.     

Taking superintelligence seriously: Superintelligence: Paths,dangers, strategies by Nick Bostrom (Oxford University Press, 2014)

A new book by Nick Bostrom, Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies, is reviewed. Superintelligence explores the future of artificial intelligence and related technologies and the risks they may pose to human civilization. The book ably demonstrates the potential for serious thinking aimed at the long-term future. Bostrom succeeds in arguing that the development of superintelligent machines will, if not properly managed, create catastrophic risks to humanity. The book falls short in some respects, and some sections are more compelling and novel than others. Overall, however, Bostrom’s book succeeds in demolishing the “null hypothesis” according to which the possibility and risks of superintelligence can continue to be ignored, and is a must-read for those interested in the long-term future of humanity.     

Postconflict Transitions: An Overview

In the two to five years immediately following end of conflicts,UN peacekeeping operations have succeeded in maintaining peace,while income and consumption growth rates have been higher thannormal and recovery on key education and health indicators hasbeen possible. Aid also has been super-effective in promotingrecovery, not only by financing physical infrastructure butalso by helping in the monetary reconstruction of postconflicteconomies. However, sustaining these short-term gains was metwith two difficult challenges. First, long-term sustainabilityof peace and growth hinges primarily on the ability of postconflictsocieties to develop institutions for the delivery of publicgoods, which, in turn, depends on the capacity of post-conflictelites to overcome an entrenched culture of political fragmentationand form stable national coalitions, beyond their immediateethnic or regional power bases. Second, after catch-up growthruns its course, high levels of aid could lead to overvaluedreal currencies, at a time when growth requires a competitiveexchange rate and economic diversification. Successful peace-buildingwould, therefore, require that these political and economicimperatives of postconflict transitions be accounted for inthe design of UN peacekeeping operations as well as the aidregime.     

Saving Transitions

This article takes a systematic cross-national approach to identifyingsaving transitions— defined as sustained increases inthe saving rate of 5 percentage points or more—to studytheir determinants and to reexamine the question of causalitybetween growth and saving. Countries that undergo saving transitionsdo not necessarily experience sustained increases in their growthrates. In fact, growth rates typically return to their levelsbefore the transition within a decade. By contrast, countriesthat undergo growth transitions—arising from improvedterms of trade, increased domestic investment, or other sources—doend up with permanently higher saving rates. Hence saving transitionsdo not appear to be causal with respect to superior economicperformance.     

Subprime Borrowers: Mortgage Transitions and Outcomes

Public policy concerns increasingly have focused on subprime lending. Our research uses a survey of prime and subprime borrowers to address whether borrowers inappropriately are channeled to the subprime segment, if once having taken out a subprime mortgage borrowers are stuck in this market segment, and whether borrowers face higher costs by taking out subprime mortgages. We find that subprime borrowers are less knowledgeable about the mortgage process, are less likely to search for the best mortgage rates, and are less likely to be offered a choice among alternative mortgage terms and instruments—possibly making them more vulnerable to unfavorable mortgage outcomes. Our analysis of market segmentation confirms that typical mortgage underwriting criteria are most important in explaining whether borrowers obtain prime or subprime mortgages—higher credit risk borrowers are more likely to get a subprime loan. Our results further show that search behavior and other demographic factors including adverse life events, age, and Hispanic ethnicity contribute to explaining market segment, suggesting that borrowers may inappropriately receive subprime mortgages. While we find some persistence to market segment—borrowers are more likely to take out a subprime mortgage if their previous mortgage came from the subprime segment—we also find that market segment is not immutable. Analysis of the survey responses indicates that borrowers with subprime mortgages significantly are more dissatisfied with their mortgage outcomes. This is not surprising because subprime borrowers look worse across typical mortgage underwriting criteria. Consistent with policy concerns, however, despite holding constant these and other factors, taking out a mortgage in the subprime segment, by itself, appears to increase dissatisfaction with mortgage outcomes. We do not provide a definitive answer to the question of whether subprime lending, on balance, serves homebuyers well by providing access to mortgage credit to those otherwise constrained, or rather serves homebuyers poorly by inappropriately assigning them to a market where costs are high and the ability to transition to more attractive prime mortgages remains low. Our analysis, however, does provide some empirical support for concerns raised by critics of subprime lending, and for this reason justifies continued public policy debate and analysis.     

Transitions: Two steps from theory to policy

This paper bridges a gap between emergent transition theories and the policy maker facing societal transitions when making long-term policy. Using a two-step approach the abstract concepts are linked to the realm of the policy maker. First the forces underlying transitions are identified and second where they can be found is presented. For this a conceptual map of societal systems, the clover model, is introduced. With the clover model the structures, cultures and practices of societal systems can be found. Furthermore, intermediate changes are systematically treated to track the phases of a transition. These transition diagnostics are supplemented with recommended policy frameworks.     

Subprime Transitions: Lingering or Malingering in Default?

When a mortgage borrower becomes seriously delinquent (i.e., defaults), the lender initiates a time consuming and complex recovery process that may or may not result in foreclosure and eventual disposition of the real estate collateral (REO). This research studies this transition process for a unique sample of subprime mortgages that were seriously delinquent on September 30, 2001. Eight months later, possible states for the delinquent loans, in order, are 1)to remain delinquent without deteriorating further, 2) foreclosure, 3) worsen, i.e., become more months delinquent, 4) bankruptcy and 5) cure. The data indicate that, relative to prime loans, when subprime loans become seriously delinquent (90 days or longer) they are about twice as likely to become REO but take about four times longer to get there. It is unusual for a subprime default to be cured suggesting considerable forbearance by subprime lenders. We explore determinants of the transition probabilities and find that the most economically important predictors of transition from default to any other state are the number of payments the borrower has made and the loan to value ratio.     

National television policy: Monitoring structural complexity

International flows of television programmes are a multimillion-dollar industry about which little is known. In the absence of reliable and well-defined data, policy making in this area becomes virtually impossible at either the national or international levels. An algebraic topological language and approach makes it possible to define structures of television programming at various levels of generality useful for both scientific and policy-making purposes. The interrogation of such hierarchical structures, which may incorporate culturally relative but ideologically pertinent values, constitutes monitoring a complex and dynamic system to make well-informed decisions about future directions. With the aid of modern computers, data-management systems, and analytical software it is possible to see international television flows in any degree of detail required.     

Transitions in the German labor market: Structure and crisis

Since the so-called Hartz IV reforms around 2005 and during the global crisis of 2008/2009, the German labor market featured mainly declining unemployment rates. We develop a search and matching model with heterogeneous skills to explore the role of structural and cyclical policies for this performance. Calibrating unemployment benefits to approximate legislation before and after the reforms, we find a large reduction in unemployment and its duration, with the transition concluding after about three years. During the crisis, the extended use of short-time labor subsidies that prevent jobs from being destroyed is likely to have prevented strong increases in unemployment.     

Transitions in a globalising world

The increasing complexity of our global society means that sustainable development cannot be addressed from a single perspective or scientific discipline. By using the concept of transitions, we examine current and future tensions between welfare, well-being and the environment, and focus on four major issues that are of global importance: two of our key natural resources, water and biodiversity; the health of human populations; and the developments related to global tourism. In our global assessment, we base ourselves on the most recent scenario efforts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Future developments are explored along the lines of four development paths (scenario groups), defined along two dimensions (global versus regional dynamics and emphasising economic objectives versus environmental and equity objectives.     

农业转型的国际经验

从发达国家农业转型及现代农业的发展看,其主要经验为:农业的发展已形成了从"从田间到餐桌"的完整产业链条;农业形态转变和结构升级依赖外部投入增加,特别是要改善农业和农村基础设施条件,在现代农业中,决定农业效益和农民收入的主导因素是市场需求,而不是生产和供给;一个国家或地区农业发展与国际农产品市场关系越来越密切;农产品品质、营养和安全受到高度重视,标准化生产越来越普及;农业多功能性受到关注,可持续发展成为重要政策目标;政府的制度安排、组织管理和支持政策体系直接影响着农业的竞争力;民间组织发挥着重要作用.     

中国经济的两大转型:货币国际化与收入分配

2011年很可能是中国故事的一个新起点.这一故事由两部分组成:一是对外的货币国际化必将进入加速通道,当然,其负面作用是贸易顺差对中国经济增长的拉动力仍将持续萎缩;二是收入分配体制改革进入不得不操作的时间点,其中的政策疑虑在于是否会系统性地提高中国的通货膨胀中枢水平.本文据此提出四个预测性结论:第一,中国面临人民币国际化的关键时期,这将推动中国由外贸顺差主导型增长结构向内需主导型增长模式转型:第二,中国的收入分配改革是一个被动但必须进行的改革,原因在于中国的全要素生产率已经持续下降,且这一改革不会造成通货膨胀快速上行:第三,留给我们的转型时间很短--2011到2013年的两年资本流入期将是实现上述两大转型取得实质性进展的重要时间框架,否则很可能出现断裂--修复式经济增长格局;第四,2011年是上述两大转型元年,由此可以对短期经济运行和政策趋势作出相应判断--货币政策收缩和财政政策扩张组合.     

Embodied uncertainty: living with complexity and natural hazards

In this paper, we examine the concept of embodied uncertainty by exploring multiple dimensions of uncertainty in the context of risks associated with extreme natural hazards. We highlight a need for greater recognition, particularly by disaster management and response agencies, of uncertainty as a subjective experience for those living at risk. Embodied uncertainty is distinguished from objective uncertainty by the nature of its internalisation at the individual level, where it is subjective, felt and directly experienced. This approach provides a conceptual pathway that sharpens knowledge of the processes that shape how individuals and communities interpret and contextualise risk. The ways in which individual characteristics, social identities and lived experiences shape interpretations of risk are explored by considering embodied uncertainty in four contexts: social identities and trauma, the co-production of knowledge, institutional structures and policy and long-term lived experiences. We conclude by outlining the opportunities that this approach presents, and provide recommendations for further research on how the concept of embodied uncertainty can aid decision-making and the management of risks in the context of extreme natural hazards.