Beggar-thyself or beggar-thy-neighbour? The welfare effects of monetary policy

This paper examines whether monetary expansion is a beggar-thyself or beggar-thy-neighbour policy. Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995) show that monetary expansion under producer currency pricing increases domestic and foreign overall welfare, in cases where the cross-country substitutability is high. If the cross-country substitutability is low, then monetary expansion is a beggar-thyself policy that reduces domestic welfare and increases foreign welfare (Corsetti & Pesenti 2001; Tille 2001). In this paper, we will show that regardless of whether the cross-country substitutability is high or low, monetary expansion is always a beggar-thyself policy in the short run.     

Revenue‐enhancing Trade Liberalization in a Differentiated Duopoly

Existing studies suggest that in developing countries, tax reforms that increase consumption taxes can compensate for shortfalls in revenue from a tariff reduction. However, these revenue‐enhancing tariff–tax reforms have a critical shortcoming—they generally reduce welfare under imperfect competition. This paper shows that tax reforms such as consumption tax reforms do not necessarily have to be implemented to make up for revenue shortfalls from tariff reductions under imperfect competition, because trade liberalization through tariff cuts leads to an increase in government revenue when domestic and imported goods have a high substitutability. This revenue‐enhancing effect of a tariff reduction occurs for a wider degree of product substitutability when initial tariff and consumption tax rates are high. More importantly, we show that even if initial tariff and consumption tax rates are sufficiently low, a tariff reduction still increases government revenue for a low degree of product differentiation under Bertrand competition.     

A cost function analysis of import demand and growth in South Africa

This study investigates the substitutability relationships among capital, labor, and imported inputs for South Africa, utilizing the estimates obtained from an aggregate cost function. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that capital is a substitute for both domestic labor and imports, but that labor and imports are complementary inputs. This latter result suggests that relaxing South African trade restrictions may have a positive impact, in both the long and the short run, on the demand for domestic labor. Other results suggest that the reduction of market impediments may also positively impact the production of investment goods and economic growth.     

Endogenous vertical restraints in international trade

This paper examines interbrand competition between a domestic and a foreign manufacturer who market their products through intermediaries. The contracts manufacturers offer these intermediaries are endogenous. In equilibrium contracts may specify exclusive territories (ET), depending on the degree of substitutability between products and the level and degree of transparency of trade barriers. Trade liberalization, through lower or more transparent barriers, may lead manufacturers to use ET, thereby substituting private anti-competitive arrangements for government-imposed barriers. This substitution may decrease competition and welfare, and thus create a role for competition policy in a freer trade environment.     

Ricardian trade and the impact of domestic competition on export performance

Abstract This paper develops and empirically examines a model of relative productivity differences both within and across industries for small open economies. We decompose the effect of industry productivity on export performance into direct effect of own‐firm productivity and an indirect effect of higher peer‐firm productivity. In a sample of Chilean and Colombian plants, we find evidence of both a positive direct effect and a negative indirect effect. The empirical evidence supports our theoretical prediction that industry‐specific factors of production and asymmetric substitutability between domestic and foreign varieties drive the negative indirect effect. JEL classification: F10, F11, F12     

The Modus Operandi of Protection*

The theory of (tariff and exchange-rate) protection usually assumes that imports and domestic substitutes sell at the same price and that exceptions to the ‘law of one price’ are due to imperfect substitutability. This article discusses the implications for the modus operandi of protection of the divergence between the prices of imports and of their domestic substitutes. It argues that the extent of this divergence will depend on imperfect price flexibility as well as imperfect substitutability. Whereas under ‘flex-price’ conditions, protection in the first instance merely redistributes income and changes market shares, output and employment only with a lag, protection under ‘fix-price’ conditions immediately affects market shares and (subject to inventory changes) output and employment.     

Collusion in Differentiated Duopolies with Quadratic Costs

The analysis of collusion in infinitely repeated duopoly games has generally assumed that marginal cost is constant, but this note uses quadratic costs (linear marginal costs) to compare the sustainability of collusion under Bertrand and Cournot duopoly with differentiated products. It is shown that when marginal costs are sufficiently increasing in output, then it is always easier to sustain collusion under Cournot duopoly than under Bertrand duopoly for any degree of product substitutability.     

Welfare‐reducing Domestic Cost Reduction*

We show that cost reduction by a domestic firm may reduce domestic welfare if it changes a foreign firm’s production strategy from foreign direct investment to export. Domestic cost reduction can be welfare reducing when the domestic market is sufficiently small and domestic firm’s marginal cost of production is higher than the foreign firm’s marginal cost of production under foreign direct investment, which is a usual feature of trade between developed and developing countries. So, developing countries with small domestic markets need competent competition policies when encouraging domestic innovation and also trying to attract foreign direct investment.     

An optimal production method for penetrating foreign markets: Standardization,localization, and flexible technology

This paper examines firms' production strategies for supplying products tailored to the target country's local taste: developing a new localized variety and modifying an existing variety to fit the local taste. Adopting the concept of the flexible technology in industrial organization theory, the paper develops a simple theoretical model to examine when and why exporters or multinationals adopt flexible technologies to serve multiple markets. The results suggest that firms with basic varieties that are considerably different from the variety demanded by the local country are likely to develop localized varieties to serve the country, whereas those with basic varieties that are considerably similar to the demanded variety are likely to modify their existing varieties. In some circumstances, even when foreign production has an intrinsic cost advantage over exporting before the application of a flexible technology, firms may choose to be exporters by adopting the technology. In addition, the results indicate a possible industry equilibrium: Firms with basic varieties that are considerably similar to the variety demanded by the local country are likely to modify them and become multinationals, whereas those with basic varieties that are considerably different from the demanded variety are likely to develop new localized products and become multinationals. Otherwise, firms are likely to modify their existing platforms and become exporters.     

Strategic Product Line Choice under Asymmetric Demand Structure

We examine strategic product line choices of manufacturers in a stylised duopoly model where products have asymmetric and interdependent market conditions. We characterise the optimal product line decisions and show that manufacturers always prefer to have head‐to‐head competition (and never segment markets) when product line setup cost is small relative to profitability of the products. When setup costs are high, symmetric manufacturers may prefer to have asymmetric product lines or market segmentation. We show that high setup costs lead to the market segmentation outcome only if there is no significant market size difference and the level of product substitutability is moderate.     

Unionized Bertrand Duopoly and Strategic Export Policy

The paper reports that an export subsidy is optimal for a unionized Bertrand duopoly. Following results published by Brander and Spencer ( Journal of International Economics , 1988, pp. 217–34), this establishes the robustness of export subsidization to the mode of competition (Cournot or Bertrand), and contrasts with nonunion results in the literature. If both firms are unionized and both governments pursue active trade policies, a subsidy remains optimal except for a narrow range of extreme substitutability between products. Nations with a lower opportunity cost of labor employ more aggressive policies in equilibrium.     

Differentiated Products,Vertical Related Markets,and Optimal Export Policy

This paper studies the optimal export policy in the context of a vertically related industry with differentiated products, and analyzes the effects of the degree of product substitutability and market structure on the determination of such a policy. It is shown that the results obtained in a similar model with homogeneous goods rivalry no longer hold when the goods are differentiated. Indeed, the degree of product substitutability plays an important role in the determination of export policies, and also determines whether a country can be better off under a trade policy war compared to free trade. The use of a differentiated product setting also allows one to compare export policies and countries' welfare levels under both Cournot and Bertrand competition. It is found that the results of the comparison are also sensitive to the degree of product substitutability.     

Free Trade Agreement with Endogenous Market Structure

We examine the incentives of free trade agreement (FTA) formation between two countries under endogenous market structure with leaders and followers. We demonstrate that establishing a FTA is neither an equilibrium outcome nor socially optimal when consumer demand and fixed cost are intermediate, products are close substitutes and countries are asymmetrical. This is because the FTA induces exit of followers, which makes the market less competitive and shrinks the leader’s production both in the domestic and foreign markets. We also show that large developing countries are less likely to establish a FTA than small developed countries.     

我国贸易顺差的根源及外需的可替代性——基于贸易品—非贸易品的分析框架

本文在开放宏观经济的平衡关系中引入产品的可贸易性差异,探讨我国贸易顺差的根源以及外需的可替代性。研究结果表明,(1)我国国内总供给结构偏向于贸易品,国内总需求结构偏向于非贸易品,两者之间不断扩大的差距是贸易顺差不断增长的根本原因;(2)非贸易品供给不足所导致的"强制储蓄"现象,制约了我国居民消费需求的增长,使其无法有效替代外需;(3)给定国内供给和需求的结构性特征,外需增加是国内投资增加的必要条件,投资需求无法替代外需;(4)为了实现总需求构成的重新平衡,特别是提升国内消费需求在总需求中的比重,不能简单地依赖总需求管理政策或收入分配政策,必须配合以促进供给结构调整的政策措施。     

SPATIAL DISCRIMINATION,PRODUCT SUBSTITUTABILITY AND WELFARE

The paper examines a quantity–location duopoly game in a spatial discrimination model in which the delivered goods are assumed to be imperfect substitutes or complements. By extending the range of the unit transportation cost analysed in the existing literature, it is shown that a dispersed equilibrium arises in which the choice of the optimal locations is affected by the degree of product substitutability. The interaction between the latter and the size of the transportation cost is also discussed in order to verify its welfare implications. In particular, it is shown that in this spatial framework imperfect substitutability may increase welfare.     

Price Commitment versus Flexibility: the Role of Exchange Rate Uncertainty and its Implications for Exchange Rate Passthrough

The paper investigates the incentives to commit price or retain price flexibility in a model in which exporting firms face different degrees of exchange rate uncertainty. The result shows that introducing exchange rate uncertainty can lead to the endogenous emergence of a unique leader–follower equilibrium; which firm emerges as price leader depends on the substitutability of products, the magnitude of exchange rate uncertainty, and the cost structure. This study may provide one explanation as to why some exporters set price before the realization of the nominal exchange rates (“sticky price”). The results imply exchange rate variability affects exchange rate passthrough.     

Threshold effects in the patent-growth relationship: a PSTR approach for 60 developed and developing countries

ABSTRACT

This study analyzes whether there is a threshold effect in the innovation-growth relationship. Using data from the period 2008–2017, we perform an analysis using 60 countries in the whole sample and a split-sample analysis in which we separate developed countries (36) from developing countries (24). The results for the panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model indicate that there is a threshold effect in the innovation-growth relationship. We find that below the threshold, the effect of innovation measured by the number of patents is not significant for developed and developing countries. However, surpassing the optimal threshold, the effect becomes positive only for the whole sample and developed countries. Furthermore, findings also indicate that research and development expenditure, domestic and foreign investments stimulate economic growth.     

Mixed ownership in a mixed duopoly with differentiated products

We determine optimal privatization in a symmetric differentiated duopoly when the public firms do not bear the full cost of production and hence their objective functions differ from the government’s objective function. In the social optimum firms will generally have mixed ownership, and it will depend on the type of uncovered cost, the degree of substitutability of the two products and the output decision rule of the partially public firms. Different types of mixed duopoly emerge, ranging from both firms being partially privatized, to one being fully privatized. We also derive an optimal tax-subsidy scheme as a substitute for privatization.      

不完全合同理论视角下渐进性创新的逆向研发外包组织模式、技术溢出与创新能力研究

既有研发外包组织理论主要基于技术优势企业视角,关注如何治理技术溢出等交易成本,忽视了缺少专利和隐性知识的企业进行渐进性创新时最优研发外包组织选择。基于不完全合同视角,从企业对研发中激励代理方努力与降低渐进性创新的不完全替代性成本之间的权衡出发,分析委托方如何合作、并购、委托以及新建研发等组织最优选择。结果表明,当委托方技术水平较低时,最优组织将需要给代理方更多控制权以激励其努力,相反,委托方则保留更多控制权以降低不完全替代性成本。委托方市场规模通过影响代理方的私人收益降低不完全替代性成本,使得委托方愿意放弃控制权以激励代理方努力。新建研发可以看作是委托方通过承担更多时间和风险成本,从而降低不完全替代性成本。在不同组织形式中,委托方对研发投入的积极性是不同的,这决定了委托方通过研发外包获得的技术溢出效应和企业创新能力。     

Trade Liberalization and the Profitability of Mergers: a Global Analysis*

We analyze the effects of bilateral tariff reductions on the profitability of cost‐reducing horizontal mergers. Given Cournot competition in a two‐country world, for any positive tariff below a certain threshold, marginal trade liberalization is shown to encourage only those domestic mergers with sufficiently large cost‐savings and to discourage the rest. For tariffs close to, but smaller than, the prohibitive tariff, however, marginal trade liberalization necessarily encourages all domestic mergers. Moreover, we show that for a given level of cost‐savings, the impact of marginal trade liberalization may not reliably predict that of nonmarginal liberalization. Although at high tariffs, domestic mergers are shown to be unambiguously more profitable than cross‐border mergers, near free trade, mergers which yield the most cost‐savings become the most profitable. Thus, when comparing domestic and cross‐border mergers, trade liberalization encourages the type which yields the most cost‐savings.