软预算约束：国有商业银行改革困境的一种描述

有关软预算约束的文献都认为，计划经济的根本特征是国有部门占支配地位。在从计划经济向市场经济转轨的过程中，由于破产威胁不可执行，以及国有商业银行享受国家信用支持、再贷款与再贴现上或明或暗的优惠，使得国有商业银行都缺乏财务约束，即转轨时期的国有商业银行存在软预算约束问题。大量的讨论将软预算约束的存在归结为外生和内生两种解释。外生原因，包括社会主义国家的“父爱主义”，国家追求就业目标或领导人获取政治上的支持，等等。内生现象，起因于时间非一致性问题，对一个未完工的无效率投资项目，政府有积极性追加投资，因…     

我国银行制度的变迁与国有企业预算约束的硬化——来自1999～2007年国有上市公司的证据北大核心CSSCISSCI

国有企业的预算约束是否趋于硬化,是衡量银行制度改革是否有效的重要标志之一。通过考察偿债能力很低或者亏损的国有上市公司从银行获得新增贷款的情况,本文研究了我国银行制度的变迁对国有企业的软预算约束问题的影响。本文发现,从总体上看,1999～2007年间仍然存在偿债能力很低或者亏损的国有企业从商业银行获得新增贷款的现象,但偿债能力很低或者亏损的国有企业获得新增贷款的现象在此期间不断减少,尤其是在2003年后出现大幅下降。这表明,我国国有企业在银行融资中仍然存在软预算约束问题,但我国政府对银行业的改革,尤其是2003年以来国有银行的股份制改革,对硬化国有企业的预算约束起到了显著的作用。本文的研究揭示出,解决国有企业的软预算约束问题不仅在于剥离国有企业的政策性负担,还在于深化银行业的改革。     

浅析预算软约束对EVA治理过度投资效应的影响

我国国有企业过度投资严重的问题由来已久,为缓解这一问题,国资委在国有企业中推行EVA业绩考核与评价机制.已有文献研究表明EVA业绩考核体系能够有效抑制企业的过度投资现象,但我国仍然处于经济转轨时期,一些特殊的制度因素,比如预算软约束问题会带来融资条件的差异,从而会对微观企业的过度投资产生影响.那么,预算软约束问题是否会影响EVA考核治理过度投资的有效性这一问题就值得受到关注.本文通过分析,认为EVA可以有效缓解"内部人控制"问题引起的预算软约束所产生的过度投资问题,但无法有效缓解政策性负担引起的预算软约束所产生的过度投资问题.     

对建立良好的金融与经济环境的思考

由于在计划经济向市场经济转轨过程中,出现了一种不规范的特有现象即由过去的计划“大一统”的“死约束”转化成了“软约束”,而没有进一步发展到市场经济客观要求的“硬约束”,所以,目前仍然存在着影响政银企关系和致使金融经济软约束的几种突出现象。 一是国家与地方两级利益认识上不一致性。各级地方政府观念未彻底转变,国家与地方两级利益认识上存在着不一致性,致使政府仍存在着行政干预和纵容包庇行为。     

大型国有企业软预算约束的行为经济学分析

应从行为经济学视野中的沉淀成本效应角度解释政府对大型国有企业软预算约束的行为,从而与新古典经济理性解释形成互补关系。这样,在软预算约束与公有产权结构、前后期投资不一致以及政策性负担等有关经济解释的基础上,从决策者心理效用角度考察过去发生的沉淀成本对软预算约束的影响,从而认为解决软预算约束根本在于补偿沉淀成本,克服决策者的沉淀成本效应。     

预算软约束视角下地方政府过度负债偏好的制度成因分析

当前地方政府的巨额债务已成为影响我国公共财政安全和社会经济的重大隐患。本文以预算软约束理论为视角,从传统的预算软约束和变异的预算软约束两个方面对我国地方政府过度负债偏好行为进行了分析,以探求其制度性根源。从这一新的视角出发,本文认为上述问题实际上是中央政府、地方政府、辖区内组织等各方各有期待、相互作用的结果,它是经济体制弊端和政府体制弊端混合体,解决问题的重中之重是政府体制改革。     

预算软约束视角下农村金融风险财政化的思考

本文通过对金融风险的成因和转嫁过程分析,得出了金融风险财政化与预算软约束的内在联系,并从预算软约束的视角对我国农村金融风险财政化的机理进行分析,并提出了解决农村所存在的“三重”预算软约束的思路。     

我国商业银行转型中加强经济资本预算管理的策略建议

本文对转型中的商业银行如何强化经济资本预算管理阐述实践认识、分析现实问题与提出策略建议.强调经济资本对风险资产总量的约束与缓冲作用、对业务结构调整的引导作用、对商业银行转型的根本制约作用以及资本回报和资本成本（即经济增加值EVA）的核心激励约束作用.     

预算软约束与政府关联性实证研究

本文以民营上市公司2008-2010年的数据为样本,实证研究了预算软约束与政府关联性之间的关系.研究结果显示:具有政府关联性的民营企业,尽管承担较多的雇员负担,也会获得较多的政府补助,从而产生预算软约束现象；当民营企业承担相同的雇员负担时,具有政府关联性的民营企业则会获得更多的政府补助.     

预算软约束理论下关于我国高校债务问题的分析

高等教育作为准公共物品有着明显的外部性,它在我国的教育事业中占据着重要的位置,而我国高校中普遍存在着预算软约束的问题,其潜藏的债务隐患极可能带来严重的财务危机,将影响社会公共财政的稳定以及经济的正常运行,因此,有必要分析我国高校中普遍存在的预算软约束问题,并提出合理的治理建议.     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.