人民币汇率大讨论大幅升值或致全球灾难

近日,中美围绕人民币汇率问题激烈交火,已逼近摊牌。130名美国两党联邦众议员目前联合去函奥巴马政府,要求制裁中国“操控人民币汇率”,随后参议员舒默抛出最新版“舒默议案”,要求财政部列出汇率根本性失当国家名单并对其采取系列惩罚性措施,矛头直指人民币。而4月15日美国财政部将在公布的报告中决定是否将中国列入汇率操纵国,人民币汇率问题届时将被推上风口浪尖。     

制造新闻的人

美国的参议员查尔斯·舒默最近颇为吸引“眼球”。在一次针对他反对布什的最高法院法官(约翰·罗伯茨)提名的采访中,媒体给他冠以“制造新闻的人”的称号,而他也确实堪当此称。在过去几个月中,舒默不仅给美国选民,也给中国人留下了“深刻的印象”。在人民币汇率问题上,舒默为强压人民币升值,曾和另一位参议员格雷汉姆联合提出“舒默议案”,声称中国如果不在6个月内调整人民币汇率,美国将对所有进口的中国商品加征27.5%的惩罚性关税。而在人民币升值后,舒默仍然不依不饶,发誓要向北京施加新的压力,以使之营造一个“更加开放”的投资环境。不…     

浅析恩格斯的"自然报复论"

"自然报复论"是恩格斯关于人与自然关系理论中备受瞩目的思想,也是至今对人类生活发挥着重大指导意义的理论观点.恩格斯用比喻的说法形象生动的表达了他对人与自然关系的深刻认识,他认为人类只有在社会实践中充分维持自然界原有的平衡,才能确保人与自然真正的和谐相处,否则,必将遭受自然界强有力的报复,引发人类生存环境的重大危机.本文主要以恩格斯的"自然报复论"观点为主线,结合历史和现实,首先探究当代社会自然现状及人类生存环境的危机;其次浅析陷入自然报复的主要根源;最后为如何走出当下自然报复,改善人与自然关系进行初步探讨和分析.最终通过研究,力求对恩格斯人与自然关系以及"自然报复论"观点有一个更加全面和深刻的解读及运用.     

货币替代的“汇率效应”及其实证研究

货币替代是开放经济下的一种货币性扰动,随着人民币汇率制度改革的进行和资本账户开放进程的加快,存在加剧的可能性。文章基于货币替代的"汇率效应",对中国2002Q1～2008Q3间人民币汇率与货币替代率的关系进行了实证分析,得出结论:我国当前存在货币替代的"汇率效应",但并不明显;汇率的"放大效应"并不存在。     

WTO争端解决机制中的报复问题

GATT/WTO多边贸易体制六十多年来的主要成就之一就是"驯服"了报复,将其置于多边控制之下,成员没有授权不得实施报复。报复本身触及WTO法律体系的"中枢神经",直接关系到WTO的救济力度和公平正义。WTO成立14年来,涉及报复的案例数量虽然不多,但影响很大,引起成员和各界的高度关注。在这些案例中,上诉机构就报复问题做出了许多重要的司法解释,但有的解释也引起一些成员的质疑和争论。目前WTO就改革报复机制的谈判正在进行中。     

人民币汇率波动的第三国效应对中国出口的影响——基于中美韩三角贸易的实证研究

本文基于在东亚生产网络中的中美韩三国的三角贸易模式,对中国对美国出口贸易是否存在汇率波动的第三国效应进行实证研究.首先利用三角贸易指数刻画了中关韩三国三角贸易的动态演变,并对“韩国出口中国”和“中国出口美国”的贸易数据进行格兰杰因果检验,证实了“韩国出口中国中间品-中国出口美国消费品”的贸易模式是中关韩三角贸易关系的实质,并基于此建立了包含美元和韩元兑人民币汇率波动变量的中美出口贸易协整和误差修正模型.研究结果表明在长短期内中国对美国出口贸易中都受到韩元兑人民币汇率波动的影响,即存在显著的汇率波动的第三国效应;在长期韩元兑人民币汇率波动对中国对美出口有正向的显著的第三国效应,其效应弹性要小于中美汇率双边波动效应弹性并与之方向相反;而短期内韩元兑人民币汇率波动对出口的增长有显著的负向效应.     

美国金融监管改革法案及其对中国的启示

2010年7月,美国出台了意在重塑其金融监管体系、重振其金融竞争力的金融监管改革法案,这将是影响全球金融体系重构的重要变革。该法案对美国金融业和监管架构及全球金融监管改革方向都将产生深远影响。该法案对中国金融监管的启示是:应寻求金融监管与市场力量的动态平衡,在重视防范系统性金融风险的同时,构建宏观审慎监管与微观审慎监管相结合的监管体系,加强对金融消费者的保护,并以客观审慎的态度开展金融综合经营。     

WTO争端解决机制中的报复问题北大核心CSSCISSCI

GATT/WTO多边贸易体制六十多年来的主要成就之一就是"驯服"了报复,将其置于多边控制之下,成员没有授权不得实施报复。报复本身触及WTO法律体系的"中枢神经",直接关系到WTO的救济力度和公平正义。WTO成立14年来,涉及报复的案例数量虽然不多,但影响很大,引起成员和各界的高度关注。在这些案例中,上诉机构就报复问题做出了许多重要的司法解释,但有的解释也引起一些成员的质疑和争论。目前WTO就改革报复机制的谈判正在进行中。     

后危机时代我国银行监管的启示和对策

席卷全球的金融危机引发了各国政府对金融监管体系及金融监管理念的反思.2010年7月21日,美国通过了<多德-弗兰克法案>,该法案被业界评论为是自20世纪"大萧条"以来曩严厉的金融改革法案,并成为与<格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案>比肩的又一座金融监管基石.本文在对美国金融监管分析的基础上,对中国银行监管进行了反思,提出改革和完善中国银行监管的一些建议.     

汇率制度的财富效应与国际货币体系改革

通过汇率制度本身直接带来各国间的财富再分配现象可称为汇率的财富效应,文章通过对汇率的财富效应的分析,揭示了现行国际货币体系的不公正性,美国由于其在国际货币体系中超然的权利而获得了巨大的利益,却不承担任何义务。基于这样的认识,文章对国际货币体系改革的目标、原则以及方法展开了全面的论述,认为固定汇率制度或货币统一是最终的选择,而浮动汇率制度只是暂时的权衡,并对我国的汇率政策提出了建议。     

Global predictive power of the upside and downside variances of the U.S. equity market

Given the pace of increasing globalization and the pioneering role of the U.S. economy, we anlayze the global impact of the U.S. equity market’s uncertainty. The asymmetric impact of upside (downside) uncertainty, related with the upward (downward) movements of the underlying assets, has raised substantial concerns recently. We comprehensively analyze the global predictability of the upside and downside variances of the U.S. equity market, implied by S&P-500 calls and puts, respectively. We contribute to the literature on the asymmetric impacts of the upside and downside variances of the U.S. equity market in an international setting. Our study also complements the study on predicting international stock returns. Moreover, substantial economic value can be generated from the perspective of asset allocation. The main channel for the positive (negative) predictability of upside (downside) variance stems from its positive (negative) impacts on international investment, highlighting the leading role of the U.S. economy.     

U.S. IMMIGRATION REFORM: POLICY ISSUES AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

In recent years, legal U. S. immigration has approached historically high levels, and illegal immigration has been thought to be high and perhaps rising. Consequently, the Select Commission on Immigration and Refugee Policy proposed sweeping changes in the nation's immigration laws. During 1984, both the Senate and House passed the Immigration Reform and Control Act (Simpson-Mazzoli Bill). This bill subsequently died in the conference committee that was established to reconcile differences between the bill's two versions. The proposed act has three major provisions: (1) control of illegal immigration, (2) legalization of alienstatus, and (3) reform of legal immigration. Both the House and Senate versions would maintain the present orientation of U.S. immigration policy toward family reunification, but the Senate proposed significant changes in legal immigration restrictions that would shift policy slightly more toward labor considerations. These proposed changes were eliminated in the compromise made in the conference committee. Employer sanctions and legalization of illegal aliens were left as the two most prominent alterations to existing policy. During 1985, the 99th Congress is likely to reconsider the Simpson-Mazzoli Bill, perhaps in a streamlined version which emphasizes employer sanctions, legalization, and a substantial increase in border enforcement.     

The Intertemporal Equilibrium Modeling of Intra-EMU and Global Trade Imbalances

The intertemporal equilibrium approach to current accounts analyzed the impacts of respective intra-European Monetary Union (intra-EMU) and Asian-U.S. financial integration between 1999 and 2007 on the intra-EMU current account and global trade imbalances. Moreover, Farmer and Ban (2014) find in a three-country, two-region overlapping generations model that financial integration between both the EMU core and periphery and between Asia and the U.S. induce trade surpluses in the EMU core and Asia, while in the EMU periphery and in the U.S., trade balances become negative when the global economy is dynamically inefficient. In this paper, we first show that in a numerically specified Farmer-Ban model, steady-state trade balance to gross domestic product ratios are too low compared to the empirically observed counterparts. We suggest avenues to ameliorate this problem.     

量化宽松、财政赤字与美元资产安全

次贷危机爆发以来,美国采取了一系列货币和财政政策以拯救深陷泥潭的本国经济。美联储运用非常规政策工具向金融体系注入大量流动性资产,美联邦政府也大幅度提高了财政支出,使得财政赤字愈加恶化。在此背景下,美元资产的安全性成为投资者关注的焦点。本文分别从货币政策效果、财政赤字的可持续性以及投资主体等方面考察了美元资产的安全性,分析了美国宏观经济政策的实际作用,并从投资主体结构探讨了美国联邦政府的经济取向,最后以所涉及资产的市场表现回应美元资产安全问题。笔者认为,与其它货币资产相比,持有美元资产并不会承担额外的币种风险。     

Contemporary Economics and Policy Issues in the U.S.

This paper outlines a variety of contemporary policy issues facing the U.S. economy. These issues include impediments to sustained economic growth and reduced unemployment, such as tax uncertainty and ill-conceived federal income tax policies. In addition, it provides an overview of four studies that deal with such topics as budget deficits and reduced economic freedoms, the implications of raising property taxes as a source of funds for revenue-starved local governments, the regional impacts of the world-wide recession for a specific locality in the U.S., namely, Hampton Roads, Virginia, and the relationship between yield curve inversion and the incidence of recession.     

A Guide To U.S. Chain Aggregated Nipa Data

In 1996, the U.S. Department of Commerce began using a new method to construct all aggregate "real" series in the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA). This method is based on the so-called "ideal chain index" pioneered by Irving Fisher. The new methodology has some extremely important implications that are unfamiliar to many practicing empirical economists; as a result, mistaken calculations with NIPA data have become very common. This paper explains the motivation for the switch to chain aggregation, and then illustrates the usage of chain–aggregated data with three topical examples, each relating to a different aspect of how information technologies are changing the U.S. economy.     

ALL IN: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF LEGISLATIVE VOTING ON INTERNET GAMBLING RESTRICTIONS IN THE UNITED STATES

In 2006, the U.S. Congress passed the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act (UIGEA) which prohibited financial institutions from processing transactions arising from online gaming activities, thereby severely hindering U.S. residents from participating in online casino games, primarily poker. Enactment of this legislation followed lobbying and political pressure from a variety of interest groups. By examining House roll call votes, we identify empirically the sources of political influence that resulted in passage of the internet gambling legislation. We find that party affiliation was of primary importance, with Republicans more likely to vote in favor of the bill. The percentage of constituents who are Evangelical Christians and also the number of gambling establishments in the district were positively associated with votes for the bill. However, contributions from the gaming industry decreased the probability a congressman would vote for the bill. (JEL D72, L83)     

Oil shale and climate policy in the shift to a low carbon and more resilient economy

Policy makers worldwide are recently debating options to implement an effective climate policy that would put a cap on green house gas emissions. At the same time, investors are carefully evaluating the profitability of unconventional fossil fuels such as shale oil. To enhance the understanding of the impacts of a climate policy such as the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009, on oil shale production – and vice versa – we have customized an integrated assessment model, the Climate and Energy Assessment for Resiliency model for Unconventional Fossil Fuels to the U.S. Western Energy Corridor. Our analysis indicates that while the bill would increase the production cost of oil shale, the industry remains highly profitable in the longer-term, generating a potential profit of about $10 to $16 billion per year by 2040 at 2.5 million barrels per day. These results suggest that the oil shale industry may comfortably face the enactment of a carbon policy, albeit with some caveats. Furthermore, while its potential economic impact on non-compliant industries may be severe, it would generate mounting profits for those achieving energy efficiency gains, thereby increasing the profitability of energy efficiency investments.     

A $15 U.S. Minimum Wage: How the Fast-Food Industry Could Adjust Without Shedding Jobs

We consider the extent to which U.S. fast-food businesses could adjust to an increase in the federal minimum wage from its current level of $7.25 an hour to $15 an hour without having to resort to reducing their workforce. We consider this issue through a set of simple illustrative exercises, whereby the US raises the federal minimum wage in two steps over four years, first to $10.50 within one year, then to $15 after three more years. We conclude that the fast-food industry could absorb the increase in its overall wage bill without resorting to cuts in their employment levels at any point over this four-year adjustment period. We find that the fast-food industry could fully absorb these wage bill increases through a combination of turnover reductions, trend increases in sales growth, and modest annual price increases over the four-year period. Working from the relevant existing literature, our results are based on a set of reasonable assumptions on fast-food turnover rates, the price elasticity of demand within the fast-food industry, and the industry’s underlying trend for sales growth. We also show that fast-food firms would not need to lower their average profit rate during this adjustment period.     

The new evidence to tendency of convergence in Solow model

This paper tests the hypothesis in the revised endogenous dynamic Solow model that there exists dynamic convergence to the moving steady-state as a single economy grows. The convergence in the revised endogenous dynamic Solow model implies that the real interest rate and the growth rate of income per capita in an economy would move together, i.e., they would be cointegrated in empirical terms. Taking the U.S. economy as our research subject, we test this hypothesis by investigating the cointegration between the U.S. real interest rate and its growth rate of income per capita during a fifty-year period from 1951 to 2000. Our results show that the U.S. real interest rate and its growth rate of income per capita move together over time, providing strong evidence to support the dynamic convergence hypothesis.