创新，拒绝浮躁

当下，创新成了时尚的流行语。尤其在党政机关的文件、讲话、简报中无处不在。革除积弊，提高效能，激发活力，确实需要创新。近几年在各级领导的积极倡导和舆论的强烈引导下，创新之风盛起，创新之举频出，很多方面亦颇有建树。然而，毋庸讳言，人们日益膨胀的浮躁心气给创新蒙上了阴影，让创新造成了“创伤”。     

外资"超国民待遇"难言终局

尽管对外资的依赖日减,但牵扯到备方的利益格局,政策转向的速度和实效将打折扣[编者按]     

论农村实现“多予少取”的转变

"多予、少取、放活"的农村工作方针的实施,有力地促进了农业发展、农村进步和农民增收,然而在落实中存在的"多予"相对不足和"少取"名实不符的现实局限,制约了其作用的充分发挥。要根本解决"三农"问题,必须实现从狭义的"多予"向广义的"多予"转变,从显性的"少取"向隐性的"少取"转变,并最终实现"多予少取"向"多予不取"的转变。     

“乡镇企业第一厂”诞生记

江苏省无锡市锡山区东亭镇春雷村，这个面积才2平方公里、只有3500人的小村庄，当年的中国“社队企业第一厂”所在地，经历了新中国成立后，在党的领导下中国农村乡镇企业从诞生、发展到壮大所发生巨变的历程。     

信息披露视角下政府补贴对绿色创新的影响：从“无的放矢”到“对症下药”

制造业绿色发展背景下,财税补贴成为平滑企业绿色创新的重要融资方式。研发信息不对称条件下,企业信息披露是财税补贴摆脱“无的放矢”局面,成功驱动绿色创新的诱导性前因。以中国制造业上市公司为样本,探讨了政府补贴在驱动绿色创新过程中对信息披露表现出的决策依赖性,揭示了信息披露的诱导效应及其动态变化规律。研究显示：政府补贴对企业绿色创新绩效具有显著促进作用;信息披露对政府补贴具有诱导效应,信息披露质量越高的企业,获得的政府补贴越多,绿色创新绩效越突出;信息披露的诱导效应具有动态递增规律,成长期企业信息披露的诱导效应不显著。但从成熟期到蜕变期,信息披露对政府补贴的促进效应递增。基于信息披露视角补充了科技金融理论相关研究,为平滑企业绿色创新、促进中国制造业绿色发展提供了科学依据。     

"家里有房,工作不慌":父辈住房财富与青年子女劳动参与

青年"劳动参与率低"和"过度热衷体制内工作"对国家经济发展并非益事.文章基于理论分析与实证检验,探究了父辈住房财富与青年子女劳动参与和就业选择的关系,解释了青年子女劳动及就业选择差异背后的原因.研究发现:父辈住房财富对青年子女的劳动参与率具有显著的负向影响.对参加劳动的青年,父辈住房财富会提升他们选择体制内工作的可能性,并减少其劳动供给时间.通过异质性分析发现,父辈住房财富对女性青年的劳动参与影响更大;同城父辈住房财富影响效应明显更强;区分学历看,父辈房产财富对高学历青年的劳动参与负向影响较小,对非重点高校学历青年选择体制内工作的正向影响更大.最后,机制分析表明,父辈房产主要通过"代际财富传递"和"子女继承期待"两大机制影响青年子女的劳动参与及就业选择.文章的研究对政府坚持"房住不炒"、推动出台房地产税,进而促进社会经济健康发展具有重要启示意义.     

中国:奥巴马面临的初次考验

《商业周刊》2009年1月12日全球经济衰退能够暴露出贸易伙伴最糟糕的一面。由于国内需求疲软,中国和美国的制造商纷纷遭遇产能过剩的问题。     

没有惩罚就没有道德

十几年前,笔者与已故北大经济学教授陈岱孙同在一个教研室。每周一次严肃的政治学习中也难免讲一点社会新闻,讲的最多的是干部腐败与假冒伪劣产品横行。陈老把这些现象的原因归结为惩罚太轻。他说,对这些劣行的惩罚总是像“三娘教子”中所唱的:“我把鞭子高高举起,轻轻打下”。陈老主张“乱世用重典”,加大惩罚力度。十几年过去了,陈老也已作古,但陈老的忠言仍是一种善良的愿望。     

推广期“非试点”区域科技保险市场发展平台构建

首先分析了推广期“非试点”区域构建科技保险市场可持续发展平台的必要性,指出阻碍“非试点”区域科技保险市场可持续发展的关键要素是参保企业数量不足并归纳分析其中的原因,在此基础上,借鉴“试点”区域的成功经验,为“非试点”区域系统构建由观念平台、宣传平台、法制政策平台、人才平台、险种平台和社会配套服务平台构成的科技保险市场可持续发展平台。     

No trade

We investigate a common value bilateral bargaining model with two-sided private information and no aggregate uncertainty. A seller owns an asset whose common valuation is a deterministic function of the two traders' private signals. We first establish a no-trade theorem for this environment, and proceed to study the effect of the asset valuation structure and the trading mechanism on extent to which asymmetric information induces individuals to engage in mutually unprofitable exchange. A laboratory experiment is conducted, where trade is found to occur between 19% and 35% of the time, and this depends in systematic ways on both the asset valuation function and the trading mechanism. Both buyers and sellers adapt their strategy to changes in the asset valuation function and to changes in the trading mechanism in clearly identifiable ways. An equilibrium model with naïve belief formation accounts for some of the behavioral findings, but open questions remain.     

No Pain, No Gain: Rethinking the Telecoms Crash

This paper reflects upon the boom and bust of the telecommunications industry from the late 1990s to the early 2000s. Unlike the conspicuous burst of the dotcom bubble, the telecoms crash came quietly, but turned out to be bigger and more catastrophic. This paper argues that bounded rationality, decision making under uncertainty and the focus on short-term individual interest all played a significant role in the telecoms crash. However, this painful crash also had its positive effects. Executives, specialists, regulators and government policy makers should pay more attention to the fundamentals and balance the need for both short-term and long-term interests in approaching the coming challenges in the fast-changing telecoms industry.     

No Pain,No Gain: Rethinking the Telecoms Crash1

This paper reflects upon the boom and bust of the telecommunications industry from the late 1990s to the early 2000s. Unlike the conspicuous burst of the dotcom bubble, the telecoms crash came quietly, but turned out to be bigger and more catastrophic. This paper argues that bounded rationality, decision making under uncertainty and the focus on short-term individual interest all played a significant role in the telecoms crash. However, this painful crash also had its positive effects. Executives, specialists, regulators and government policy makers should pay more attention to the fundamentals and balance the need for both short-term and long-term interests in approaching the coming challenges in the fast-changing telecoms industry.     

No strings attached!

Many governors want to convert medicaid to a block grant and do away with the myriad federal rules that have vastly expanded the program's reach in recent years. Congress may oblige them. But groups that fought for the rules aren't going to sit still.     

Issue Linking in Trade Negotiations: Ricardo Revisited or No Pain No Gain*

There has been much discussion about what issues should be included in international “trade” negotiations. Different countries, firms, and activist groups have quite different views regarding which items should (or should not) be negotiated together. Proposals run the gamut from no linking to linking trade with investment, the environment, labor, and human rights codes. This paper provides a formal framework for analyzing this question. It employs a two‐country, two‐issue bargaining model and contrasts outcomes when issues are negotiated separately and when they are linked in some form. A key concept is “comparative interest,” analogous to Ricardian comparative advantage. We provide general results and note, in particular, where a country can benefit by agreeing to include an agenda item for which, when viewed by itself, the country does not receive a positive payoff. We also provide an application of our analysis to negotiations on trade liberalization and environmental protection.     

No home, no help

What can be done about abuse children and the homeless mentally ill? Some experts propose putting them back in orphanages or mental hospitals. But institutionalization is an approach the nation had renounced about two decades ago.     

2002年没有大戏

<正> 当前市场人士对今年股市行情如何演绎,众说纷纭,比较混乱,有说再创新高或新低的,有说箱体整理的,具体到预测高低点点位,从1200～2300不等。我们根据市场结构与市场周期理论分析认为,今年股市整体处于筑底阶段,股指将在市场平均持筹成本(目前上证指数的平均持筹成本为1509.155点)的1.0倍～1.25倍之间运行,如果股指突破这个区间,也只是暂时的。股市运行的规律股市运行是有周期的,但这个周期并不表现为固定的天数,而是表现为筑底(建仓,底部震荡)-拉升(含洗盘,跌幅达20％左右)-出货(顶部震荡)-快速下跌这四个周而复始的过程。即使是在成熟市场经济国家,股市中复杂的投资者结构,