A Diagrammatic Exposition of the Monetary Trade Model

In recent literature the monetary model of trade is presented diagrammatically in terms of hoarding and of the relative price of non-traded goods. In this paper we go back to the original diagrammatic approach of Mundell where he uses the stock of domestic money instead of hoarding. We adapt Mundells approach to the more recent developments of the monetary model and point out its expository advantages. We conclude the paper with a comparison of the two approaches.     

Optimal Degrees of Transparency in Monetary Policymaking

According to most academics and policymakers, transparency in monetary policymaking is desirable. I examine this proposition in a small theoretical model emphasizing forward–looking private sector behavior. Transparency makes it easier for price setters to infer the central bank's future policy intentions, thereby making current inflation more responsive to policy actions. This induces the central bank to pay more attention to inflation rather than output gap stabilization. Then, transparency may be disadvantageous. It may actually be a policy–distorting straitjacket if the central bank enjoys low–inflation credibility, and there is need for active monetary stabilization policy.
JEL classification : E 42; E 52; F 58     

On the Time Inconsistency of Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policies with Many Consumer Goods*

In this paper, we study the time consistency of optimal policies in an environment where agents use cash to purchase many consumer goods and where those goods might be taxed at differential rates. Our main result is that optimal monetary and fiscal policies are, in general, time‐inconsistent, because the number of bond instruments is insufficient to influence all future fiscal decisions. However, there is one special case where optimal policies are time‐consistent, which is when differential tax rates across cash goods are optimally zero.     

货币冲击、房地产收益波动与最优货币政策选择

与传统资产定价模型中风险收益权衡关系相悖,我国房地产市场存在投资异象和波动长记忆性特征。文章利用泰勒规则(Taylor Rule)的利率缺口,在剔除市场预期之后测度了中国市场的货币政策冲击,并基于房地产投资回报的时序数据波动聚集性和时变性特征构建GARCH(1,1)-M模型,以此度量我国房地产市场投资收益的波动演变路径,解释了央行实施加息的货币政策后当期房价反而上涨的投资现象。文章还立足于房地产市场参与人的投资特征,从行为金融学的全新研究视角出发,建立包含行为资产定价的动态模型经济系统,研究资产价格波动与最优货币政策选择问题,求得相应闭型解,为实施关注资产价格波动的最优货币政策提供理论基础。     

Money Quantity and Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy: A Quantitative Analysis

This paper quantitatively analyzes the impact of money stock on optimal monetary and fiscal policy in a stochastic production economy with sticky prices. The numerical results indicate that a sufficient large quantity of money makes a noticeable difference in many aspects of optimal monetary and fiscal policy. They suggest that the volatile inflation in China may not be as bad as the existing theory would have implied if its large amount of money is taken into consideration.     

滞胀风险下的宏观经济调整与货币政策选择

随着金融危机向实体经济转移和扩散,我国经济增长出现下滑,已远低于潜在增长率;而由宽松货币政策所导致的广义货币供应量在不断增加,通货膨胀压力正逐步显现。在外需短期无法恢复、内需相对不足的情况下,滞胀的风险在逐步加大。VEC模型结果表明:货币流通速度、广义货币供应量增长速度共同决定我国通货膨胀率。当经济景气程度上升、货币流通速度加快时,货币供应量增长过快会引发通货膨胀。因此,现阶段应在有效监控经济景气程度和货币流通速度的基础上,对宏观经济政策进行微调,以便提高政策搭配效果,有效化解风险。     

Time Inconsistency and the Exchange Rate Channel of Monetary Policy

This paper analyses time–inconsistency problems related to the exchange rate channel of monetary policy. Within a simple open–economy macroeconomic model, where the exchange rate is the only forward–looking variable, we show that a difference emerges between optimal policy under discretion and under commitment. Moreover, the nature of the time–inconsistency problem resembles that resulting from standard New Keynesian models: when cost–push shocks occur, the exchange rate channel gives rise to excessive output stabilisation and insufficient inertia in monetary policy under a discretionary policy.
JEL classification : E 42; E 52; E 61     

欧洲中央银行货币政策透明度研究

大多数国家的央行开始摈弃隐秘性传统,其货币政策逐渐走向开放和透明。如何最充分、准确、及时地向公众披露与解释货币政策目标、策略和决策已成为多数国家货币政策操作所面临的首要问题,本文首先对欧洲中央银行在实践中所采用的主要沟通策略和工具进行归纳和介绍,然后将欧洲中央银行与世界其他主要中央银行的信息公开程度进行横向比较,最后就关于提高欧洲中央银行货币政策透明度的相关建议和争议进行评述。     

中国货币政策的有效性问题——基于政策时间不一致性的分析

本文对政策时间不一致性理论模型加以修正以分析中国货币政策的有效性问题。结果表明,中国货币政策的有效性与政策的可信性之间密切相关,随着货币政策可信性的提高,其有效性也相应提高。因此,实行有规则、透明度高、连贯性强的货币政策,对于提高政策有效性具有重要作用。     

效率与公平兼顾的最优所得税:理论框架及最优税率估计

最优所得税主要探讨税收如何兼顾公平与效率问题,以及给定公平偏好程度下,如何确定最优边际税率水平。即使在崇尚罗尔斯社会福利函数的社会里,政府同时兼顾再分配和财政收入目标的基础上,只要略加考虑税收对劳动供给的效应,哪怕是微弱的考虑和兼顾,最高边际税率都不会达到100%。而且,借鉴斯特恩最优线性所得税模型及美国个人所得税制度,估计我国现行个人所得税最高边际税率还可以适当降低到36%左右。     

基于MCI缺口的货币政策操作风险测度研究

由于受短期目标的约束以及中央银行对宏观经济形势的认识偏差,若货币政策工具及调控时机选择不当,或政策信息披露不及时等,都有可能误导公众预期和增加市场的不确定性,从而引致货币政策操作风险。通过构建包含货币供应量的货币条件指数(MCI),并考察其实际值与均衡值之间的离差状况,结果表明MCI及其缺口可用于间接测度货币政策操作风险的大小,而所得到的风险指数可作为宏观调控的参考指标。     

企业晋升公平激励与优化对策研究

我国企业晋升制度不健全、监督机制不完善、晋升文化扭曲等原因导致了我国企业晋升激励中存在性别歧视、玻璃天花板、看重关系等问题。企业要构建基于组织公平的晋升激励模型,并从培育正确的组织公平文化,不断完善晋升程序,选择和培训合适的晋升决策者,帮助员工树立正确的晋升观念,扩展我国企业晋升激励路径等五个方面保障企业晋升的公平激励效果。     

当前我国央行货币政策走向分析

今年以来,固定资产投资继续快速增长,货币信贷居高不下,我国经济过热的风险仍然存在.央行在将近4个月的时间里先后两次提高存款准备金率,两次提高利率以抑制过快增长的货币信贷.本次货币政策的目的将限于通过抑制信贷过快膨胀来平滑经济增长,其理想效果是防热而不会致冷."稳健"仍会是央行的货币政策基调.继续加息不是央行的最优选择,高固定资产投资、高经济增长速度仍将是今后较长一段时期内我国经济发展的特点.     

最优货币政策规则的选择及在我国的应用

本文首先根据我国的实际数据 ,建立和估计混合型模型 ,并以此作为研究货币政策规则的基本框架。然后在随机模拟的基础上 ,以社会福利为基准 ,计算和比较三种货币政策决策方式对社会福利的影响 ,这三种决策方式是完全承诺的最优货币政策规则、最优的Taylor规则及相机抉择。同时计算与福利损失等价的通胀率变化 ,结果表明 ,最优的Taylor规则能够很好地近似完全承诺的最优货币政策规则 ,这为进一步改进我国货币政策的决策和操作提供了一个指导方向。其次 ,对我国目前的货币政策决策和操作存在的问题进行分析 ,特别是对目前我国盯住货币供应量的体制所存在的问题进行分析 ,并提出改进的方案     

A model of money counterfeits

This note offers a game-theoretic analysis of the strategic interaction between a central bank and a counterfeiter. Counterfeit notes cause a potential loss for consumers because such notes are confiscated when detected. The central bank is assumed to choose a bank-note design that minimizes the sum of the production cost of the notes and of the expected loss to the noncounterfeiting part of the population. The counterfeiter maximizes his expected return. I find that this game has a pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium, and this equilibrium is typically unique. Depending on parameter values (specifically on the face values of notes), there is either no counterfeiting or much counterfeiting in equilibrium. Intermediate cases are never an equilibrium.     

信号显示博弈与国际寡头最优进入策略的选择

在信息不完全的国际市场竞争中,寡头企业可以通过观察竞争者不同市场进入策略带来的收益为信号帮助判断其真实的成本类型.文章以FDI和出口贸易作为信号推证了在成本类型不确定条件下混同均衡和分离均衡存在的条件;文章的推论表明如果分离均衡条件满足,双边企业可以获得完全信息条件下的均衡产出,如果混同均衡条件满足,双方则将按照不完全信息博弈规则选择古诺纳什产出.     

Monetary Policy Transparency in the UK: The Impact of Independence and Inflation Targeting

There is a widespread belief that the transparency of UK monetary policy has increased substantially as a result of the introduction of inflation targeting in 1992 and a number of procedural and institutional reforms which accompanied and followed it. Here, money market responses (and other data) are used to test the possibility that improved anticipation of policy moves may be the result of developments other than the institutional reforms popularly cited. We find overwhelming evidence that the switch to inflation targeting itself significantly reduced monetary policy surprises, while subsequent reforms have contributed little. Where we advance substantially on earlier work is to look at the cross‐sectional dispersion of agents’ anticipation. If the benefit of transparency is the elimination of policy surprise, there is little benefit if the averagely correct anticipations of agents conceal a wide dispersion of view.     

人民币均衡汇率最优决定研究

随着经济全球化和国际贸易、国际结算的迅猛发展,汇率成为经济中一个主要变量,影响着一国的经济,被企业社会所广泛关注。均衡汇率模型的核心是分析基本经济因素变化对均衡汇率的影响,并利用它们之间存在着的系统联系来估计均衡汇率。     

The Inflation Game: Targets,Practices and the Social Production of Monetary Credibility

In recent years, central banks have continued to preach inflation targeting even as they have pursued a wide range of unorthodox inflation-management policies. As the disconnect between discourse and practice grows, there is a growing risk of a serious credibility gap. This article seeks to shed some light on these dilemmas by looking backwards, focusing on the ‘Great Inflation’ in Britain in the 1970s and early 1980s and the successive failures of Labour’s incomes policy and the Conservatives’ monetarist experiment. These historical experiences suggest that for inflation policy to work it needs to be both understood as and made credible—which means that key actors need to not only learn that this is how the inflation game works, but also put into place a whole range of supporting practices that reflect and reproduce this conviction. In spite of the many claims by economists and central bankers to the contrary, quantitative targets do not in fact anchor inflationary expectations – social practices instead play that crucial anchoring role. At the same time, these cases both underline the particular dilemmas associated with a reliance on hard quantitative targets in times of social instability – lessons that do not bode well for our present moment.     

On the Optimal Exploitation of Terrestrial Animal Species

The paper analyses the social optimal management of terrestrial animal species where land-use costs, non-consumptive benefits of the wild species and nuisance costs, in addition to harvesting profit, are taken into account. When there is harvesting, it is demonstrated that increased profitability of the alternative land-use activities will result in less animals and habitat land in the long-term. It is also shown that the price effect of the harvesting works different compared to the traditional Clark-model of marine resources. Because most terrestrial species represent no harvesting profit and are not harvested, the non-harvesting case is also analysed. Also now will improved profitability in the competing activities of keeping animals be a threat to the wild species as it triggers land-use conversion. Moreover, in absence of harvesting profit, there are no potential counteracting forces due to the existence of harvesting profit.