The influence of management decisions and external factors on the dairy farmer's environmentally friendly farming objective: the Green Dairy experience

Ten dairy farms participated in an EU project that aimed to improve nitrogen use and assist with the adoption of more environmentally friendly farming practices. Nitrogen use and management decisions were monitored during 2003, 2004 and 2005. Nine farms improved nitrogen use (nitrogen output relative to input) in Year 2. Four farms maintained or further improved nitrogen use in Year 3. Management decisions and external factors that improved nitrogen use were increasing farm milk output, adopting best management practices for nitrogen use, growing forage crops that required less nitrogen than grass and favourable crop production conditions that rendered large quantities of good quality forage. Decisions that worsened nitrogen use were increasing cow numbers without sufficient management support, the late start of supplementary feeding when grass quality declined, setting the target yield too high, pursuing a higher milk price, less palatable silage and disease. Sufficient slurry storage is essential to improving nitrogen use. The savings from lower nitrogen input and the revenue from milk were in no proportion to the investments required for additional slurry storage, however. The farmers did adopt environmentally friendly practices, but only to the degree their businesses were able to sustain.     

基于遥感的阿鲁科尔沁旗人工饲草面积及生产经济变化分析

目的 人工饲草的种植规模和生产水平是衡量一个国家畜牧业发达程度的重要标志。及时准确地获取人工饲草种植面积,分析人工饲草生产的长期变化趋势,为饲草产业的发展和管理提供科学的数据支撑。方法 文章以内蒙古自治区赤峰市阿鲁科尔沁旗为例,基于Google Earth Engine（GEE）云平台和Landsat卫星遥感数据,依据玉米、苜蓿、燕麦3种饲草作物的生长特性和物候差异,使用机器学习算法对2000—2020年3种饲草作物的种植面积进行了逐年提取。在此基础上,结合入户调查数据,分析了3种人工饲草的种植面积、产量、价格在2015—2020年的变化趋势。结果 2000—2020年3种饲草作物的种植面积均显著增加,增加的区域位于研究区西部、南部的退化草地和沙地,以及河谷等水资源丰富的区域。在3种人工饲草中,苜蓿种植发展最为迅速,在2010年后种植面积和产量均快速增长;燕麦的种植起步较晚并且种植面积最小;青贮玉米的产量虽然在稳步增加,但是青贮玉米种植面积占全旗玉米总种植面积的比例并没有增加。结论 阿鲁科尔沁旗人工饲草的种植在2010年开始快速发展,在2015年形成规模化种植,进入平稳发展阶段。人工饲草的种植能够改良退化草地和沙地,但是受水资源分布的影响。苜蓿和燕麦的产量增长是因为种植面积的扩大,青贮玉米产量的增长是因为单产的增长。人工饲草的种植虽然快速增加,但是饲草缺口仍然不能得到满足。     

Estimation of Treatment Effects of Recombinant Bovine Somatotropin Using Matching Samples

The production and profit impacts of recombinant bovine somatotropin (rbST) on select New York dairy farms were estimated using data over the years 1994 through 2004, by comparing matching farms that use and do not use rbST. The use of rbST increases milk production per cow and decreases the cost of production per hundredweight of milk. The cost penalty (cost reduction) is $0.39 per hundredweight for those currently using rbST to stop using rbST, while the average treatment effect is $0.73.     

中国乳制品产业集聚溢出效应研究

[目的]乳业振兴战略实施以来,国内乳业从饲草布局、奶牛养殖、原料乳加工、市场格局等迎来大发展的利好时机。产业集聚是当前乳业发展的重要特征,研究乳制品产业集聚的溢出效应对分析区域经济增长与产业竞争力等具有重要的参考价值。[方法]文章利用1992-2017年中国省域乳制品产业相关面板数据,运用空间杜宾模型,研究中国乳制品产业集聚带来的经济增长、产业发展及乳制品安全等溢出效应及其作用机理。[结果]乳制品企业、奶站、奶农等利益相关主体的集聚增加了乳制品产业内各环节的关联性,显著增加区域经济的增长,提高乳制品产业竞争力,为乳制品产业发展提供内源性动力,最后在微观层面,各利益相关主体的集聚程度在一定程度上有助于改善乳制品质量安全水平。[结论]在此基础上,从打造乳制品产业集聚区、乳业振兴及质量安全管控等方面提出政策建议,进一步发挥产业集聚的辐射能力、提高产业核心竞争力。     

Short‐ and Long‐Run Policy Evaluation: Support for Grassland‐Based Milk Production in Switzerland

Following the abolition of the milk quota in 2008, farmers in Switzerland strongly increased the use of concentrate feed in milk production. Against this background, the Swiss government introduced the voluntary grassland‐based milk and meat (GMF) programme in 2014, which combines economic incentives with feeding restrictions to reduce the reliance on concentrate feed and increase the use of grass feed. We analyse the economic and ecological impacts of the GMF programme at the farm and at the sector level in the short‐ and long‐run. We use a difference‐in‐differences approach (ex‐post) and an agent‐based simulation model SWISSland (ex‐ante) to construct counterfactual states to evaluate the programme's impacts. We find that the GMF programme reduces the use of concentrate feed and increases the use of grass feed in Swiss milk production. Whereas the programme has a positive effect on economic indicators such as the farm income, we find no effect on ecological indicators such as the N surplus. Our analysis suggests that feeding restrictions on concentrate feed are not enough to achieve a reduction in the N surplus. Additional feeding restrictions on grassland are necessary. Furthermore, the GMF programme has a dampening effect on sectoral milk supply, and leads to a higher milk price.     

POPULATION DYNAMICS AND MILK SUPPLY RESPONSE IN THE US LAKE STATES

This paper develops a dynamic model of a dairy cow population and of milk supply response. When applied to the US Lake States, the model provides evidence against the Nerlovian model. It suggests that the pattern of dynamic effects of prices on cow numbers varies for different prices. The estimated dynamic supply elasticities provide some useful information on the nature of dairy production adjustments. For example, the response of milk supply to market prices is found to be very inelastic in the short run. It takes at least 7 years of sustained change to obtain an elastic response to milk price. Also, feed price and slaughter cow price are found to have smaller effects on dairy supply than milk price, but larger effects than risk, hay price or capital cost.     

The influence of weather conditions on dairy production

Relatively little attention has been paid in the economics literature to the effects of meteorological conditions on milk production. Meteorological variables can be expected to affect milk production through their impact on the productivity of cows and the production of foodstuff. Rather than including meteorological variables as inputs in the milk production process, we propose a production function where these variables affect the productivity of cows and the production of forage, thereby indirectly affecting milk production. Using production and meteorological data from the Spanish region of Asturias corresponding to 383 dairy farms observed during a six‐year period from 2006 to 2011, the results from our estimated production function show that meteorological variables have a significant impact on milk production. We find that milk production is higher under warm weather conditions due to improvements in forage production.     

Household‐level Impacts of Dairy Cow Ownership in Coastal Kenya

This study uses heteroskedastic Tobit and Censored Least Absolute Deviations models to examine the impacts of dairy cow ownership on selected outcomes for a sample of 184 households in coastal Kenya. The outcomes examined include gross household cash income, gross non‐agricultural income, consumption of dairy products, time allocated to cattle‐related tasks, number of labourers hired and total wage payments to hired labourers. The number of dairy cows owned has a large and statistically significant impact on household cash income; each cow owned increased income by at least 53% of the mean total income of households without dairy cows. Dairy cow ownership also increases consumption of dairy products by 1.0 litre per week, even though most of the increase in milk production is sold. The number of dairy cows has no significant effect on total labour for cattle‐related tasks. However, in contrast to previous studies, labour allocation to cattle by household members decreases and labour requirements for dairy cows are met primarily by an increase in hired labour. Dairy cow ownership results in relatively modest increases in payments to hired labourers and the number of hired labourers employed. The large positive impacts on income and the substitution of hired for household labour in cattle care suggest that intensification of smallholder dairying can be beneficial as a development strategy in the region if disease and feed constraints are addressed.     

Expected Economic Effects of BST in The Netherlands

The calculated profitability of using Bovine Somatotropin (BST) on typical dairy farms in The Netherlands ranges from Dfl.160 to 300 per cow per year, assuming 1985 prices and circumstances, and ignoring the costs of BST. A 20% increase in milk production and no change of the feed/milk relation were used for the calculations. BST is more profitable on intensive farms or on farms with more opportunities for alternative uses of land, buildings and labour. The quota system, however, leads to a considerable reduction of profitability. At a national level, and with an unchanged milk price, a 28% adoption rate of BST would increase national income about Dfl.120 million. However, the cost of BST or any decrease in milk price could reduce this amount, even to below zero. It is apparent that some dairy farmers who apply BST will earn more income whereas others will lose income.     

Supply and demand for commodity components: implications of free trade versus the AUSFTA for the US dairy industry*

During the negotiations on the Australia–US free trade agreement (AUSFTA), the US dairy industry vigorously opposed opening the US market to imports of Australian dairy products on the grounds that the US industry would be devastated. Subsequently, the agreement signed in February 2004 made an exception for dairy, providing for only limited quota expansion and no free trade, even at the end of the long implementation period. This paper presents a simulation model of world dairy markets, represented by supply and demand equations for fat and non‐fat components of milk and manufactured dairy products. We use the model to analyse the effects on US milk markets of both a hypothetical agreement, allowing free bilateral trade in dairy products, and the actual AUSFTA. An important contribution to the literature is the derivation of explicit supply and demand relationships for milk components. The components model allows an analysis of long‐term production, consumption, and trade patterns that is not tied to specific, fungible products. Simulations indicate that increased imports from Australia resulting from bilateral trade liberalisation would have resulted in small reductions in US milk prices and production. The much smaller increases in Australian access to the US market under the actual AUSFTA will have even smaller, almost negligible, impacts.     

Smallholder dairy cattle feeding technologies and practices in Tanzania: failures,successes, challenges and prospects for sustainability

In Tanzania, milk production under smallholder farming systems is season sensitive, fluctuations of feeds in both quantity and quality being the major driver. A dry season decline in milk production of over 40% due to feed scarcity is a common phenomenon. Adoption of improved feed production, conservation and utilization technologies and practices in dairy farming communities is poor. This review work was based on a key question which states “Why is adoption of improved dairy nutrition technologies and practices in Tanzania still poor despite being promoted for decades?”. We have shown that major opportunities for curbing dry season animal feed shortage include on-farm optimization of production and use of high yielding pasture varieties including napier grass (Pennisetum purperium Schumach.) and leguminous fodder species. Crop residues in particular maize stover needs to be optimized for effective dry season feeding. The major reasons for low adoption of proven technologies include limited technical knowhow among smallholder dairy farmers augmented by limited extension services and technological costs. For enhancing sustainable uptake; we suggest promotion of on-farm research, public-private partnerships and dairy farmers’ cooperative associations. These are vital for facilitating smooth access to information, investment capital, reliable inputs and markets among the smallholder dairy farmers.     

Cow-calf profitability and leptin genotyping

Profitability of cow-calf production is determined largely by market prices, calf weaning weights, and cow productive life. While producers individually have no effect on prices, weaning weights and productive life have genetic influences and hence can be altered by selection programs implemented by producers. We investigate the impact of a mutation in the leptin gene (exon 2; single nucleotide polymorphism [SNP] 305) on cow-calf profitability. Prior research shows that this mutation has effects on performance and traits of fed cattle and milk production in dairy cows. Using data from a teaching-research herd, we find that it is also associated with calf weaning weights and cow productive life. A bio-economic stochastic simulation demonstrates that the mutation has statistically positive impacts on profits, suggesting that producers can profitably make use of this information.     

USING INPUT DEMAND AND PRODUCTION FUNCTION MODELS TO ASSESS THE NET BENEFITS OF DAIRY HERD IMPROVEMENT

Two methods of evaluating (the net social benefits of the dairy herd-improvement scheme operated by the New South Wales Department of Agriculture are described. The first involves derivation of 'an input demand' function for the herd-recording aspect of the scheme and use of this function to estimate the economic surplus (net of both private and public costs) provided by the service. The second approach involves deriving a production function for milk from which it is possible to estimate the contribution herd-recording and artificial breeding have made to increasing milk yields per cow. Social benefits are shown to have been less than social costs for herd-recording, however dairy farmers have made net private gains. The herd-recording scheme has contained a regressive subsidy element. The production function approach show that artificial breeding and herd-recording were profitable complements in production.     

Monitoring and Controlling Mastitis on Ontario Dairy Farms

The frequency of use and the marginal costs and marginal value products of mastitis control practices on somatic cell count (SCC) and milk yield are investigated. A survey of current management practices is combined with Dairy Herd Improvement production information to determine the relationships between milk yield, SCC, management practices, and production and producer characteristics under field conditions. The relationships are modeled and compared at the cow and herd level. A moment-generating approach is used in the herd model to determine which, if any, practices are risk reducing. The SCC for an individual cow is a better indicator of milk production lost due to mastitis than is a bulk tank SCC. Most recommended mastitis control practices are estimated to be economically beneficial, but some common practices are found not to be economical, and questions are raised about dry cow treatment. On a examiné la fréquence à laquelle on recourt aux pratiques de lutte contre la mammite, de même que les couts et les avantages marginaux de ces dernières en ce qui concerne la numération des cellues somatiques et le rendement laitier. On a combiné une enquête sur les pratiques zootechniques actuelles aux renseignements sur la production extraits du Programme d'amélioration des troupeaux laitiers en vue de déterminer les relations qui existent entre le rendement laitier, la numération des cellules somatiques, la conduite du troupeau ainsi que les caractéristiques associées à la production et aux producteurs, sur le terrain. On a ensuite modélisé ces relations et on les a compareées entre les animaux et les troupeaux. Pour le modèle touchant les troupeaux, on s'est servi d'une approche générant des moments, pour déterminer si une pratique quelconque diminuait les risques. La numération des cellules somatiques chez la vache est un meilleur indicateur du volume de lait perdu à la suite de la mammite que la numération des cellules somatiques dans la citerne. La plupart des méthodes de lutte contre la mammite recommendées offrent un avantage économique, mais certaines pratiques courantes ont l'effet contraire et on s'interroge sur l'utilité de traiter les vaches taries.     

Evaluating the uncertainty in estimates of the economic impacts of Bovine-Leukosis virus in U.S. dairy cows

An examination of the economic impacts of Bovine‐Leukosis virus indicated that reduced milk production, attributed to the presence of Bovine‐Leukosis virus in dairy cows, reduced consumer surplus by 2.7 ± 2.3 billion US$ (bUS$), and resulted in a total partial equilibrium loss of 720 ± 560 million US$ (mUS$) to the U.S. economy in 1996. Most of the economic surplus lost by consumers was transferred to producers, whose economic surplus increased by 2.0 ± 1.8 bUS$ as a result of reduced milk production attributed to the presence of Bovine‐Leukosis virus in dairy cattle. Uncertainty analysis showed that an estimate of the milk‐production decline per percent increase in the prevalence of Bovine‐Leukosis virus in dairy cows accounted for most of the uncertainty in the economic‐impact estimates. If Bovine‐Leukosis virus had not been present in U.S. dairy cows, then milk production would have increased by 2.0 billion ± 1.5 billion kg, the price would have fallen by 3.8 ± 3.2 cents/kg, and the value of the milk produced would have decreased by 2.1 ± 1.9 bUS$. Guidelines delineated by the International Organization for Standardization, for evaluating and expressing uncertainty in measurement, are discussed and proposed for use in the context of broad national estimates, for which the economic impacts of Bovine‐Leukosis virus serve as an example. The principal advantages of the methodology are the clarity and transparency of results, and the ability clearly to identify major uncertainty contributors.     

ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIPS IN MILK PRODUCTION

The paper reports on the statistical aspects of work done on the National Investigation into the Economics of Milk Production in 1965/66. It argues that conclusions draw from the tabulated results of random samples invariably need checking by more rigorous methods. The method of step-wise regression with the introduction of zero-one variables is the principal technique for examining feed input/output relationships and their reflection in economic terms. Five basic dependent variables are considered: yield per cow, stocking density, output per forage acre, utilised starch equivalent per forage acre and margin over feed cost per forage acre. The discussion of the results argues the overwhelming importance of stocking rate in the profitability of milk production and that on many farms concentrates are being used at uneconomic levels. The latter part of the paper considers variation in labour productivity and argues the existence of economies of scale in the use of labour regardless of the system of herd operation.     

The Adoption and Profitability of rbST on Connecticut Dairy Farms

This work estimates probit and tobit models of the adoption of recombinant bovine somatotropin (rbST) on Connecticut dairy farms and then endogenizes that adoption in estimates of milk production and farm profit rates. The work improves on the current literature by allowing the rbST decision to be both continuous and contingent on other technology adoption decisions. The results show that larger farms, with more productivity technologies, and with younger, more educated farmers, are more likely to adopt rbST. While rbST is shown to significantly increase milk production, there is no evidence that it increases profits on a per cow basis.     

Determining farm effects attributable to the introduction and use of a dairy management information system in The Netherlands

Yearly production and reproduction data on dairy farms in The Netherlands were obtained to determine whether management information systems significantly improved herd performance variables (management information systems (MIS) effects). The analysis included 357 adopters of a management information system and 357 herds were used as controls. The data comprised years 1987 through 1996, and included for the adopters both the ‘before’ and ‘after’ period. Panel data analysis enabled to estimate MIS effects both within and between farms, allowing for a separation of farm‐specific effects and common (trend) effects. Adoption and use of a management information system resulted in a significant annual increase in rolling herd average milk (carrier) and protein production of 62 and 2.36 kg per cow, respectively. Calving interval was shortened by 5 days. The pay‐back period was approximately 5 years of the system (including the hardware), and therefore, MIS appears to be economically profitable.     

The Adoption and Impact of Bovine Somatotropin on U.S. Dairy Farms

Data from a national survey representative of U.S. dairy operations were used to assess adoption and the production and financial impacts of recombinant bovine somatotropin (rbST). Adoption rates of rbST varied significantly across the nation, but were higher among larger diary operations in all regions. However, the scale bias of rbST adoption was substantially diminished when the influence of location and the use of related technologies were measured. An increase in milk production per cow was associated with rbST adoption, but estimated financial impacts were not statistically significant due to substantial variation in the net returns of rbST adopters.     

Agroindustrialization through institutional innovation Transaction costs, cooperatives and milk-market development in the east-African highlands

Some small-holders are able to generate reliable and substantial income flows through small-scale dairy production for the local market; for others, a set of unique transaction costs hinders participation. Cooperative selling institutions are potential catalysts for mitigating these costs, stimulating entry into the market, and promoting growth in rural communities. Trends in cooperative organization in east-African dairy are evaluated. Empirical work focuses on alternative techniques for effecting participation among a representative sample of peri-urban milk producers in the Ethiopian highlands. The variables considered are a modern production practice (cross-bred cow use), a traditional production practice (indigenous-cow use), three intellectual-capital-forming variables (experience, education, and extension), and the provision of infrastructure (as measured by time to transport milk to market). A Tobit analysis of marketable surplus generates precise estimates of non-participants' 'distances' to market and their reservation levels of the covariates — measures of the inputs necessary to sustain and enhance the market. Policy implications focus on the availability of cross-bred stock and the level of market infrastructure, both of which have marked effects on participation, the velocity of transactions in the local community and, inevitably, the social returns to agroindustrialization.