The economic and poverty impacts of maize research in West and Central Africa

This article assembles the results of three multicountry surveys on variety performance and adoption patterns to measure the impacts of maize research in West and Central Africa from 1981 to 2005, and uses cost data since 1971 to compute social rates of return on public investments in maize research in the region. Adoption of modern varieties increased from less than 5% of the maize area in the 1970s to about 60% in 2005, yielding an aggregate rate of return on research and development (R&D) investment of 43%. The estimated number of people moved out of poverty through adoption of new maize varieties rose gradually in the 1980s to more than one million people per year since the mid 1990s. Over half of these impacts can be attributed to international maize research at IITA and CIMMYT. The article concludes with a discussion of strategic options to enhance the impacts of maize research in the region.     

Sustainability of fish pond culture in rural farming systems of Central and Western Cameroon

In Sub-Saharan Africa, fish ponds are often an integral part of farming systems but have suffered from a lack of viability and sustainability. The present study aims to understand the strategies used by fish farmers to overcome economic and environmental constraints. In 2008 and 2009, fish farmers were surveyed in Central and Western Cameroon, and the fish production systems were classified by cluster analysis. Four broad types were identified according to the complexity of household operations. The development of extensive systems (large-scale and low-input) in rural areas of central Cameroon is induced mainly by abundant available land. For semi-intensive systems in both regions (small-scale and high-input in the Western Region, large-scale and high-input in peri-urban areas of the Central Region), horizontal integration is not sufficient to make fish production profitable and sustainable. More intensive fish farms tend towards vertical integration, in which farmers establish close links with input suppliers. Main causes of low productivity of semi-intensive systems (1–2?t/ha/yr) are both lack of knowledge of fish farming principles by farmers and lack of technical improvement by extension agents and researchers which need to consider the local complexity of farming systems to develop and intensify fish production. The adaptation of development strategies to socio-economic and environmental contexts is a necessity to hope for an increase in fish pond aquaculture production in Africa.     

Participatory determinants of innovation and their impact on plantain production systems in Cameroon

Current statistics question the capacity of food-crop production to meet the challenges of food security in Central Africa. However, for local food crops like plantain, the potential for improving productivity is very high. In response to this challenge, after identification of the most serious constraints, an interdisciplinary team used participatory research and action-research tools to try and speed up the adoption of technical innovation by farmers. The project began in 1990 in South-West Province and subsequently expanded to include 100 plantain producers and 60 extension technicians in the Central and Southern Provinces of Cameroon. The approach used produced satisfactory results as far as the adoption and dissemination of methods of multiplication and cleaning of planting material were concerned but there was resistance to new cropping practices involving intercrops and crop rotation. The project resulted in major technical changes in plantain production systems in Cameroon that not only increased productivity and food security but also reduced deforestation showing that sustainable intensification is possible in sub-Saharan Africa.     

Why did farmers stop cultivating NERICA upland rice varieties in central Benin?

New Rice for Africa (NERICA) was developed by the Africa Rice Center by crossing high-yielding Asian rice (Oryza sativa L.) with locally adapted African rice (Oryza glaberrima Steud.). Community-based seed production of NERICA varieties was introduced in a village in central Benin in 2006 through seed dissemination projects. It was reported that high-adoption rates of these varieties were mainly due to high demand by development projects for seed dissemination, and to incentives (i.e. selling the rice seed at a higher than local market price to a local extension service) for farmers to grow NERICA varieties. A follow-up survey was undertaken after the seed dissemination projects ended to examine the change in the cultivation of NERICA varieties. About half of the farmers had ceased cultivation of NERICA varieties in 2011. The reasons for abandonment were the combined effects of reduced seed demand and low yields, which were attributed to a lack of access to credit and training on NERICA cultivation practices. The majority of the farmers did not abandon rice cultivation, but grew other high-yielding varieties, including one aromatic variety for which there was market demand. We conclude that to avoid immediate reductions in the adoption of new varieties after projects are terminated and to enhance agricultural sustainability, the varieties should be introduced in conjunction with appropriate group training on their cultivation, and the project should target farmers who do not have off-farm businesses. Furthermore, access to credit should also be enhanced, and the marketability of the varieties should be assessed.     

International research on vegetable improvement in East and Southern Africa: adoption,impact, and returns

There is a lack of evidence for impact at scale of vegetable research and development, although the importance of vegetables for human nutrition and smallholder incomes is generally understood. We therefore study adoption and impact of improved tomato and African eggplant varieties developed through international agricultural research, released by national agricultural research and extension systems, and supplied to farmers by private seed companies in East and Southern Africa from 1990 to 2014. The study finds that in 2014, varieties developed by the World Vegetable Center accounted for 50% of tomato and 98% of African eggplant commercial seed production in East and Southern Africa. For Tanzania alone, investment in crop improvement generated economic gains of US$ 255 million for tomato and US$ 5 million for African eggplant up to 2014. The internal rate of return is 26% for tomato and 12% for African eggplant, though we project the latter to increase to 26% by 2024 as the variety was released only in 2007. These findings support the view that agricultural policy and investment reoriented towards contemporary nutritional challenges will give high returns to investment.     

Ex Ante Welfare Analysis of Technological Change: The Case of Nitrogen Efficient Maize for African Soils

This study evaluates the potential impacts of the Improved Maize for African Soils (IMAS) project in two countries of Africa: Kenya and South Africa. The IMAS varieties offer significant yield advantages for regions where low or no fertilizer is used. The analysis uses spatial production data and household data to account for the level of fertilizer use in different agroecological zones of the country as well as different types of maize producing households. Results suggest that IMAS will deliver a total of US$586 million in gross benefits with US$136 million and US$100 million of benefits to producers in Kenya and South Africa, respectively, and an additional US$112 million to consumers in Kenya and US$238 million to consumers in South Africa. These benefits could help more than 1 million people escape poverty in the two countries by 2025. Household level results suggest that small households in areas with relatively low levels of fertilizer use stand to gain significant benefits.     

The direct use value of municipal commonage goods and services to urban households in the Eastern Cape, South Africa

To redress past racial discrepancies in ownership and tenure, the ANC government of South Africa initiated programmes to make land accessible to the previously disadvantaged. A key component of the national land reform programme was the provision of commonage lands to urban municipalities for use by the urban poor. However, there has been no assessment of the contribution that urban commonage makes to previously disadvantaged households. This study assessed the economic benefits of the commonage programme to local households, through an in-depth survey of 90 households across three small towns in the Eastern Cape of South Africa. We examined the marketed and non-marketed consumptive direct-use values of land-based livelihoods on commonage, calculated via the ‘own reported values’ approach. The results indicate that a proportion of South Africa's urban population rely to some degree on municipal commonage for part of their livelihoods. Commonage contributions to total livelihood incomes ranged between 14 and 20%. If the contributions from commonage were excluded, the incomes of over 10% of households in each study town would drop below the poverty line. Overall, the value of harvests from commonage was worth over R1 000 (US$ 142) per hectare per year and over R4.7 million (US$ 0.68 million) per commonage per year. However, the extent and nature of use and reliance was not uniform among households, so that we developed a typology of commonage users, with four types being identified. However, rapidly growing urban populations and high levels of poverty potentially threaten the sustainability of commonage resource use. Yet the national land reform programme focuses largely on the transfer of land to municipalities and not on sustainable management. Municipalities, in turn, invest relatively little in commonage management, and the little they do is focussed on livestock production. Non-timber forest products are not considered at all, even though this study shows that they are a vital resource for the urban poor, notably for energy and construction materials.     

21世纪以来江苏省水稻种植面积的变化与启示

目的 研究21世纪以来江苏省水稻种植面积稳中有增的机制,为新时期稳定粮食播种面积保障国家粮食安全提供科学依据。方法 文章采用时间序列描述性统计与区域空间比较分析、因素分解相结合的研究方法。结果 （1）2001—2020年江苏省水稻种植面积经历了“两增两减”的变化,由201.03万hm²波动增长至220.28万hm²,增长9.6%;同期广东、浙江分别减少了53.48万hm²、70.40万hm²,与江苏省水稻种植面积差距不断扩大;（2）2001—2020年江苏省苏南地区水稻种植面积减少了26.94万hm²,苏中地区水稻种植面积基本稳定,苏北地区水稻种植面积增加了45.11万hm²,苏北地区水稻种植面积增加对全省水稻种植面积增长的贡献率达234.2%,是江苏省水稻种植面积稳定的主要原因;（3）水稻生产竞争力不高和有效灌溉面积减少共同导致了苏南地区水稻种植面积的衰减,有效灌溉面积增长是苏中地区水稻种植面积基本稳定的主要原因,有效灌溉面积增加和水稻生产竞争力提升共同促进了苏北地区水稻种植面积的增加。结论 对于拥有较多后备稻田或耕地的区域,在一定时期内区域经济发展不一定导致区域内粮食种植面积的下降,但长期稳定粮食种植面积面临挑战。继续稳定江苏省水稻种植面积需要全省协同努力,苏南地区要稳定并适度增加水稻种植面积,苏中地区要积极探索稳定水稻种植面积的有效途径,苏北地区要着力发展稻米产业经济,探索水稻生产与区域经济协调发展的新路径,同时要高度重视江苏省沿海地区滨海盐土水稻生产的发展,为未来全省水稻种植面积增长开辟新空间。     

Induced innovation and spillover effects of US and Canadian research expenditures in Canadian agriculture

This study examines the induced innovation hypothesis (IIH) from 1958 to 2015 for two Canadian agriculture regions: Central Canada (the provinces of Ontario and Quebec) and Western Canada (the provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba). There is broadly consistent support for the IIH for Canadian agriculture, especially for Western Canadian agriculture. In addition, there is support for the notion that US, as well as Canadian, research expenditures are important to explain changes in the input ratio in Canadian agriculture in the long run. This indicates the existence of spillover effects from US agricultural research expenditures to Canadian agriculture.     

Mathematical formulation and exact solution for landing location problem in tropical forest selective logging,a case study in Southeast Cameroon

In Central Africa, creating forest roads and skid trails is one of the most costly and environmentally damaging operations for the forest's ecosystem. An optimized road network is essential for reducing construction costs and improving the sustainable management of timber resources. The location of landings is vital in the development of a future forest road network. In this study, a binary integer programming model similar to the uncapacitated facility location problem is formulated to optimize the locations of the landings. The model is applied to selective logging in Central Africa and tested on an annual logging zone in Southeast Cameroon. The results are compared to that of manual road planning, the currently used method.     

West and Central African iron ore development and its impact on world prices

The focus of the paper is on the potential of iron ore supplies from West and Central Africa to enter the export market over the short and medium terms and how this could impact the supply‐side capacity and market price. To assess this, three export development scenarios (low, medium and high risk) are constructed for 17 iron ore mines (over 27 production expansion projects) in West and Central Africa. The projections for African iron ore are compared with the latest medium‐term import forecasts and suggest that the development of West and Central African iron ore has the potential to create significant downward pressure on the price of iron ore exports over the medium term. The increased export capacity could push marginal producers – mainly in China but also in India and elsewhere – out of the market.     

The trade distorting effects of export refunds: The case of beef exports to Africa

The usual sale of European agricultural products to Africa using export refunds has been heavily discussed in recent decades. At the centre of the discussion are the consequences on the agricultural producers in Western and Southern Africa. There are two different points of view: On the one hand, the European Union's (EU) export policy reduces the prices on these markets and relieves high burdens on local producers; on the other hand are claims that refunds do not influence local prices significantly. Hence, the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has no effect on markets of third countries, besides depressing world market prices. This paper focuses on the effects of EU's export subsidies for beef exports on its market share in several developing countries. Twenty-seven African countries were analysed using a fixed-effects model between 1988 and 2000. The results clearly show a highly significant positive impact of the export refund rate on the market and the import share. With its export policy, the EU raises its market position and edges out other competitors.     

A paradigm shift in African agricultural research for development: the role of innovation platforms

To demonstrate the development impact of their outputs, agricultural research and development (R&D) organizations used to focus on the efficiency and effectiveness of technologies. In recent years, innovation systems thinking has started to address institutional and organizational barriers to technological change in African agriculture. The main approach used has been the multi-stakeholder innovation platform (IP). This paper analyses the requirements for improving the competence and skills of IPs actors in agricultural value chains, food systems, and natural resource management. As case studies, it uses IPs in the maize and cassava value chains that were initiated in the dissemination of new agricultural technologies in Africa (DONATA), in both West and Central Africa, and made reference to the rice IPs facilitated by AfricaRice. Yields and incomes in maize and cassava IPs significantly increased and inter-actor relationships and behavioural change among the diverse social and economic operators were enhanced. This achievement built on three capacity development interventions: (i) learning workshops that sensitized and informed technocrats and policy-makers and nurtured their involvement and ownership, (ii) competence and skill training of IP facilitators and practitioners, and (iii) coaching and mentoring of these facilitators and practitioners. To better facilitate IPs, facilitators and practitioners need to learn to observe, recreate, test, and perfect the IP process and value chain approach. Practicable tools that can be visualized and put into practice by the IP actors are essential. The DONATA on which the paper is based has been invaluable in terms of experiential learning.     

Firm Size,Technological Capabilities and Market-oriented Policies in Mauritius

Mauritius is an outlier in sub-Saharan Africa in terms of its impressive growth in garment exports since it adopted outward-oriented policies in the early 1980s. Little, however, is known about the role of technological factors in the behaviour of Mauritian garment exporters. Using recent methodological developments in the literature on technological capabilities, this paper explores this issue. It constructs a "technology index" and conducts econometric analysis on factors affecting enterprise-level technological development and export performance in a sample of enterprises. Firm size, technical manpower, training expenditures and external technical assistance are positively related to the technology index, suggesting that investments in human capital and information (both facilitated by size) improve technological performance. The technology index and foreign ownership have positive and significant effects on export performance. The technology index is a robust tool of empirical research and can be used to analyse the technological record of enterprises in adjusting countries.     

Food production and population growth

Governments have frequently ignored the issue of population consumption exceeding the rates of renewal of natural resources. At the UN Conference on the Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro, the issue of population growth was ignored in the agenda and action plan. In 1974, the UN World Population Conference suggested population stability would be possible if standards of living were raised. Industrialized nations spent half a century of active interference with the stability of global populations and failed to slow growth. 27 countries, mainly in tropical and subtropical zones, have an average cereal yield of under 1 ton per hectare, when improved seed and basic minimum fertilizer could yield 2 tons per hectare. Efforts to increase yields by the Consultative Group for International Agricultural research in 13 international centers resulted in global annual increases of about 50 million tons of grain (wheat and rice). Rainfed agriculture did not benefit as much because of climatic conditions. Where varieties of triticale, sorghum, millet, groundnuts, chick peas, cowpeas, beans, and cassava have helped increase food production, population growth has outstripped the gains. Agricultural fertilizers have been unfairly blamed for soil nutrient losses. Because of the age structure of population, the expected population growth can only be addressed through development of higher yields, new strains resistant to disease, and fertilizers. Slow release phosphates for tropical soils are needed. Shortages of domestic fuel divert much needed farmyard manure and composted crop residues. About 400 million tons of dung are thus wasted annually; food grain harvests are thus reduced by 14 million tons. About 50% of the 1133 million poorest people will live in Asia and another 25% will live in Sub-Saharan Africa, living on a total degraded area of 1219 million hectares. Imbalance between food supply and population need to be addressed on an effective international scale.     

中国省域农业现代化水平评价及其影响因素的空间计量分析

[目的]对各地区农业现代化的评价以及其影响因素的分析有利于各地区把握自身的农业现代化水平并制定相应的改革措施。[方法]文章在文献分析的基础上确定了农业现代化评价的4个维度、13个指标,然后运用熵权TOPSIS法对我国部分省域2008~2015年的农业现代化水平进行量化评价,最后结合空间计量分析进行实证研究。[结果]得到了我国农业现代化分布的空间格局,并对农业现代化发展与产业结构、基础建设、农业固定资产投入之间的关系进行了检验。[结论]我国农业现代化发展呈现较强的空间集聚性,我国东部地区、中部地区、西藏、新疆地区的农业现代化程度较高,西部地区,特别是中西部交接地带的农业现代化程度较低,人均固定资产投入以及基础设施建设对农业现代化发展有显著正影响,不能盲目追求降低第一产业比重等结论,并从区域政策支持、农业示范中心城市的设立、产业结构、固定资产投入、基础设施建设等方面为我国的农业发展提供政策建议。     

Prospects for food security in the 21st Century: with special emphasis on Africa

Food security for the world in 2025 is possible and probable if the right set of things are done, starting now. But the task will not be easy. It is both a technology and a political/economic challenge. The challenge for sub-Saharan Africa is even greater. While other regions improved per capita food availability over the last 30 years, Africa's availability declined. But food security is about more than supply. It is also about access which means income generating employment is critical. Meeting future requirements in Africa and the world will require sustainable intensification of complex production systems, appropriate national and international policies and continued investments in agricultural research. Without these conditions and increased employment intensive growth, prospects for the future are less bright.     

“一带一路”背景下的中国大米外交策略

[目的]农业外交是一种古老的外交形式,也是一项崭新的研究议题。大米外交是农业外交的重要内容,"一带一路"建设为中国开展与沿线国家大米外交提供了新契机。研究大米外交的实施路径,有助于提高中国大米国际竞争力。[方法]研究以如何开展大米外交为研究对象,分析了中国开展大米外交面临的机遇及相应实施路径。[结果]中国实施"大米外交"战略面临重要机遇,如粮食外交已成为世界各国外交战略的重要形态。中国杂交水稻技术国际领先优势明显,大米是"一带一路"沿线部分国家的重要贸易产品,中国水稻生产可持续发展环境亟需改善。针对不同国家及地区具体情况,通过大米贸易、技术合作、农业投资、粮食援助等多种形式,积极实施差别化的"大米外交"战略。如对东南亚、南亚主要是增加大米进口和技术交流,对中亚、俄罗斯主要是增加农地投资和劳务输出,对东非、北非主要是增加大米援助和技术输出,对东亚、中东欧主要是增加粳米出口和技术引进等路径。[结论]文章提出了加强金融支持、创新合作模式、把握进口时机和增加种子出口等推进中国"大米外交"的政策建议。     

Simultaneous Estimation of Cost and Distance Function Share Equations

The study considers the simultaneous estimation of share equations using cost and distance functions. Simultaneous rather than single system estimation utilizes full as opposed to limited information. Econometric results exploit the nonstationary nature of the data and that variables are cointegrated. Under cointegration all variables are endogenous and so it is not necessary to undertake the somewhat ad hoc exercise of choosing instruments to achieve parameter consistency. Johansen's maximum likelihood estimator is applied to data from Central Canada and Western Canada (1935–2006). Symmetry and homogeneity restrictions are not rejected for either region. Monotonicity held for all data points and concavity held at 92% of the data points. Long‐run constant returns and Hicks neutral technological change are rejected for both regions. Morishima elasticity estimates coming from the cost function in Western Canada indicate highly elastic long‐run substitution between the land/fertilizer input pair and mildly elastic long‐run substitution between land and both machinery and labor. In contrast, substitution for land and other inputs is inelastic for the land/machinery pair and the land/labor pair, with only the land/fertilizer pair being mildly elastic. The results indicate the limiting nature of land as a fundamental constraint on long‐term agricultural production is a real possibility in Central Canada because other inputs are inelastic, or at best only mildly elastic, substitutes for land. In Western Canada, fertilizer is the only factor that is highly substitutable for land and, therefore, could mitigate the limiting nature of land in that region. However, given that fertilizer applications are often considered to be environmentally unfriendly, the long‐run substitution of fertilizer for land as a fundamental mitigating factor to land scarcity in Western Canada is at a cost to the environment.     

新兴速生树种推广优势、经济效益及发展对策研究——以速生竹柳为例

介绍了竹柳的来源与特性;从可有效缓解国内森林资源稀缺现状、可有效缓解国内木材供给压力、可增加森林碳汇储量而有效应对气候变暖、有利于保护生态环境并丰富生物多样性、有利于推动种养结合而缓解畜禽养殖业环境污染5个方面分析了竹柳推广造林的优势;实证分析了竹柳育苗的经济效益、预测分析了竹柳成材林栽植的经济效益。结果表明:竹柳具有栽植密度高、生长速度快、抗性强、成活率高和用途广泛的特点;经营竹柳育苗和成材林每年可分别实现利润148.18和101.12万元/hm2。建议广泛组织科研单位对竹柳进行科研论证;加强市场治理,规范竹柳经营;加大政策支持力度,引导社会资本参与竹柳经营;结合竹柳特性,打造竹柳生态产业链;做好长期规划,推动竹柳林纸一体化经营。