Deforestation and Forest Land Use: A Comment

Hyde, Amacher, and Magrath (1996) imply that deforestation andtimber rents (logging revenue minus logging costs other thantimber fees) are not subjects that justify policymakers' attention,arguing that market responses limit the scope of deforestationand that rents are usually small. But they fail to recognizethat land markets will not develop efficiently, nor will efficientlevels of forestry investments occur, when policy distortionsand other factors obstruct the conversion of open-access foreststo private or communal ownership. For these reasons rates ofdeforestation can be far above optimal levels. Contrary to theauthors' claims, timber rents often (although not always) arelarge in developing countries. Moreover, the allocation of rentsbetween loggers and the government owners of public forestscan indeed affect the profitability of forestry (and thus deforestation),the intensity of timber harvesting, and national welfare.      

Spatial Statistics Applied to Commercial Real Estate

Portfolio theory shows that diversification can enhance the risk-return trade-off. This study uses the absolute location of commercial real estate property along with spatial statistics to address the inherent problem of determining geographical diversification based upon a set of economic and property-specific attributes, some of which are unobservable or must be proxied with noise. We find that commercial real estate portfolios exhibit statistically significant spatial correlation at distances ranging from adjacent zip codes to neighboring metropolitan areas. Given the common structure of dependence found in the data series, we discuss feasible strategies for obtaining diversification within direct-investment real estate portfolios.     

Land Values, Land Use, and the First Chicago Zoning Ordinance

This article examines whether the pattern of urban land use should have been regulated by local government in the 1920s, the decade in which many cities adopted their first zoning ordinances. The study is based on the assumption that land values are influenced by the mix of land use on the block. Conditions for land-value maximization are derived, and the circumstances under which land-use zoning can increase land values are discussed. Empirical land-value and land-use functions are estimated for Chicago in 1921, two years before the first Chicago zoning ordinance was adopted. The empirical results for land values imply that the land-use zoning system adopted in 1923 could not have brought about a general increase in land values. The empirical results for land use document the regularities in the use of land prior to the introduction of zoning.     

技术引进、自主创新与就业——基于动态空间面板模型的实证研究

基于1995-2015年中国各省的面板数据,运用动态空间杜宾模型考察技术进步对就业的直接效应和空间溢出效应。结果显示:短期的技术引进促进了就业增长,但其对就业的溢出效应不显著;而长期的技术引进并不能持续地带来就业增加,反而会对就业造成破坏效应。自主创新对就业短期以破坏效应为主,但长期的自主创新促进了就业的增加,并且从经济距离权重下的就业效应来看,自主创新吸纳了相近经济水平区域的劳动力,空间溢出效应为负。现阶段我国自主创新的就业效应不受经济发展水平影响,但经济发展水平越高的地区,技术引进对就业的拉动作用越弱。     

Delegating Eminent Domain Powers to Private Firms: Land Use and Efficiency Implications

Many private common carriers or regulated utilities have eminent domain powers in the U.S. The rationale resembles that for local governments; lower cost of assembling land for long distance electric transmission, gas and oil products pipelines, etc. Recent court cases raise questions about whether eminent domain allows firms to use inefficiently long indirect land corridors, inefficiently wide corridors, or higher value land when lower value land is available as an alternative? Despite the incentive to over-use capital under rate-of-return regulation, it turns out that the firm adopts an excessive land corridor width only to the extent that corridor width is tied to capital usage. For route selection, rate-of-return regulated firms follow the same Pareto rule that would be followed by an efficiency-oriented government when designating which land to take for a transmission route by eminent domain.     

物权编体系重构应变土地所有权为非限定土地使用权

《物权法》以土地所有权为基础,忽视了公有制下土地所有权的特殊性,导致了精神背离和体系紊乱。土地所有权更多是公权力,构成土地基础性财产权的是土地使用权。在土地使用权的制度实践中,存在一种非限定的土地使用权类型,其用途非限定、时间永久且可自由转让,物权编应以之作为土地所有权在物权法中的对应权利,而将土地所有权逐出物权编,从而建立起以非限定土地使用权为自物权,以限定土地使用权为用益物权的物权体系。     

A Spatial Model of Housing Returns and Neighborhood Substitutability

This article provides a method for estimating housing indices at the local level. It develops a distance-weighted repeat-sales procedure to exploit the factor structure of the error-covariance matrix in the repeat-sales model. A distance function defined in characteristic and geographical space provides weights for the generalized least-squares model, and allows the use of all of the repeated sales in a metropolitan area to measure returns for the specific neighborhood of interest. We use distance-weighted repeat sales to estimate return indices for all zip codes in the San Francisco Bay area over the period 1980--1994.When distance is defined in terms of socioeconomic characteristics, we find that median household income is the salient variable explaining covariance of neighborhood housing returns. Racial composition and educational attainment, while significant, are much less influential. Zip-code level indices often deviate dramatically from the citywide index, depending upon income levels. This has implications for investors and lenders. Our results indicate that rates of return may vary considerably within a metropolitan area. Thus, simply using broad metropolitan area indices as a proxy for capital appreciation within a specific neighborhood may not be justified.     

土地空间使用权的评估

《物权法》提出了土地使用权可以分层设立的规定。这就提出了评估土地空间使用权价值的新课题。本文通过借鉴国外建筑物各层立体价值的评估方法,认为可以将这一方法引入我国土地空间使用权的评估。本文还认为对以往的地价评估方法加以改进也可以用于土地空间使用权的评估;并认为土地空间使用权评估不应脱离现有的基准地价体系和地价评估理论。     

关于中国经济增长模式的一个解释框架--基于“土地财政”的演进分析北大核心

本文建立了一个新的模型尝试解释中国经济的近中期增长模式。在考虑“土地财政”作用的基础上,首先建立两期世代交叠(OLG)模型说明基本原理,随后将两期模型扩展到多期OLG模型,进行参数校准和模型求解。研究表明,在城镇化过程中政府将通过“土地财政”机制获得的资本用于基础设施建设,使得企业部门资本重新配置、均衡条件重构,推动形成国有企业与民营企业相对占比的稳定均衡。在这一机制下,GDP和全要素生产率不断上升但增速逐渐下降;资本的总体投资效率和资源配置优化速度出现下降,民营企业占比先增后稳。多期模型较好地刻画了我国1998—2017年期间经济结构变化趋势以及储蓄率、投资率、对外投资与外汇储备等宏观指标。随着“土地财政”作用的进一步弱化,持续推动技术进步、深化国企改革、深化金融改革等是实现我国经济长期可持续发展的关键举措。     

土地税制促进土地资源有效利用的路径探讨

本文通过梳理国际上土地税制的构成和特点,系统分析了我国土地税制在调控土地资源方面存在的问题,对我国土地税制改革提出了相关建议:规范土地税制;改革房地产税制;建立一个多税种、多环节的土地税制体系。     

区块链技术应用于衍生品市场的潜在风险与模式构建

2016年以来,区块链成为热门词汇,包括央行在内的众多金融机构,皆在研究其应用可行性问题。区块链的独特传递机制和加密算法模式对金融衍生品市场具有一定价值,然而点对点传导机制下,区块链又存在速度、模式、安全性等诸多问题,监管难度变大。文章以区块链在其他领域的应用和特点为研究出发点,对照衍生品市场特征,深入分析区块链技术在衍生品市场领域的应用前景及风险对策问题,提出区块链的去中心化与传统的交易所中心化模式的互补融合,分层监管的策略,并建议引入隔离墙机制,构建市场公共底层区块设计等构想,以期对该技术有效运用于金融衍生品市场,实现交易机制和效率的提升,提供思路和建议。     

A Spatial Cross-Sectional Credibility Model with Dependence Among Risks

A Bühlmann-Straub type credibility model with dependence structure among risk parameters and conditional spatial cross-sectional dependence is studied. Predictors of future losses for the model under both types of dependence are derived by minimizing the expected quadratic loss function, and nonparametric estimators of structural parameters are considered in the spatial statistics context. Predictions and estimations made for the proposed model are examined and compared to other models in an application with crop insurance data and in a simulation study.     

财政分权、空间效应与产业结构升级——基于SDM模型的经验研究

基于2000-2014年中国31个省级面板数据,运用空间杜宾模型分别考察财政收入分权和支出分权对产业结构升级的空间效应以及由此引致的策略性竞争效应,研究表明：财政分权等经济社会因素存在区域差异,这种差异导致产业结构升级在空间分布上具有显著的异质性特征。财政收入分权和支出分权对产业结构升级的影响呈现出非对称的空间溢出效应。一方面,财政收入分权对本地区产业结构升级的影响并不显著,而支出分权对本地区产业结构升级具有积极影响;另一方面,财政收入分权和支出分权对相邻地区产业结构升级均产生抑制效应,但较之于收入分权,支出分权的抑制效应更为明显。     

我国省级财政政策收敛研究：基于空间面板数据模型的分析

本文通过运用空间计量模型,研究1994-2005年我国29个省财政政策收敛情况。本文分别采用地理相邻权重矩阵和人均GDP权重矩阵,对各省间的空间滞后和空间误差模型进行了实证分析,结果表明,我国省级人均GDP、人均税收收入、人均个人所得税等目标变量均存在收敛性。     

Economic Reform and Labor Unions: A General-Equilibrium Analysis Applied to Bangladesh and Indonesia

Noting the trend toward more independent trade unions in developingcountries, this article examines whether the presence of unionsstrengthens or weakens the benefits to be gained from economicpolicy reform. We show that the presence of "passive" unions—onesthat choose their wage-employment contract given the firm'scost-minimizing strategy—increases the welfare gains fromtrade liberalization, because trade reform lowers the wage premiumenjoyed by the unionized sector, reducing a distortion in thelabor market. These gains are amplified when the unions are"active", namely, when they negotiate a contract with the firmthat is off its labor demand curve. Such a contract resultsin featherbedding—paying workers more than their marginalproduct—and trade reform reduces the amount of featherbedding.The policy implication for Bangladesh—a country with strongtrade unions and a protected unionized sector—is thatthe benefits of further trade liberalization may be greaterthan otherwise predicted. In Indonesia, where both unionizationand import tariffs are low, allowing greater independence tounions may preserve flexibility and reward workers better thanthe current minimum-wage policy.