中国出口贸易品技术结构的测算

本文利用贸易品技术附加值指数和相对技术附加值高度对中国出口贸易的技术水平进行了测定。本文提出的贸易品技术水平和贸易结构的测定方法剔除了时间变化趋势,是对现有方法的改进和扩展。中国的比较优势主要体现在纺织服装和机械设备方面,竞争劣势体现在高附加值的化学品和商业服务方面。1995～2007年,中国出口贸易的整体技术水平得到了不断提高,并于2006年之后超过世界平均水平;中国出口贸易结构不断升级,表现出向发达国家靠近的趋势。     

贸易结构、人力资本与全要素生产率增长——基于中国数据的经验研究

贸易开放带采的技术溢出是发展中国家提高全要素生产率的重要渠道，技术溢出的效果与贸易结构相关，并且需要一定的人力资本存量相结合。本文运用DEA方法测算1980—2006年中国的全要素生产率变化，然后通过基于ECM的Granger因果关系检验法分析贸易结构和人力资本联合指标对全要素生产率变化的影响。结果显示：相对于中低技术品，高技术品进口的技术溢出效果更明显，在更大程度上提高我国的全要素生产率；相对于人力资本的结构和分布，人力资本水平更直接地影响技术溢出的吸收效果，影响全要素生产率。因此，调整贸易结构和增加教育投资是强化贸易开放的全要素生产率效应的两个必然的政策选择。     

贸易结构与贸易溢出的技术创新效应

以三种专利授权量代理不同层次的技术创新能力,以进出口贸易中资本品或高技术品所占的比例衡量贸易结构。研究发现:贸易结构的变化显著影响我国的技术创新能力,但主要体现为实用新型和外观设计专利的增加,对发明专利的影响则不显著,并且这种贸易溢出的技术创新效应必须以国内技术吸收能力的同步提升为条件。因此,贸易溢出可以促进技术创新,但最根本的技术创新——技术发明还必须依靠自主研发。     

我国服务贸易进口的技术效应分析

文章基于DEA的Malmquist指数方法将全要素生产率（TFP）分解为技术进步（TP）和技术效率（TE）,按照要素密集度把服务贸易划分为劳动密集型、资本密集型、技术与知识密集型服务贸易三类,研究了三种要素密集型的服务贸易进口分别对全要素生产率、技术进步和技术效率的影响,结果发现,劳动密集型服务贸易进口对TFP、TP和TE均无显著影响,资本密集型服务贸易进口对TFP有显著影响,但对TP和TE没有显著影响,技术与知识密集型服务贸易进口对TFP、TP和TE均有显著影响。最后,文章在此研究结论的基础上提出了相应的政策建议。     

中国商品贸易结构升级了吗——基于贸易品类别、技术附加值和质量水平的分析

文章从贸易品类别、技术附加值和质量水平三个角度对中国二十多年来商品贸易结构升级状况进行分析。根据贸易品类别,可以测算出高技术制成品在中国商品出口贸易中的占比不断提高;根据贸易品技术附加值,可以测算出中国出口贸易整体技术水平升级显著;利用质量水平指标,可以测算出中国大部分贸易品已从低质量层级向中高质量层级升级。通过分析中国与五个主要贸易伙伴国的双边贸易结构可以看出,虽然中国出口产品的技术水平和质量水平都在升级,但是与进口产品相比总体上处于劣势。     

贸易结构变化促进经济增长途径的比较分析——基于中国数据的经验研究

虽然贸易结构变化促进经济增长的途径主要表现在资本积累和技术进步上,但是在一国不同发展阶段,通过两途径影响经济增长的作用表现不同。本文建立VAR模型考察了我国贸易结构变化在促进经济增长途径上的差异,分析发现:2002年前贸易结构变化通过资本积累促进了经济增长,2002年后该效应为负;2002年前贸易结构变化通过技术进步促进经济增长作用弹性为负值,2002年后变为正值,说明我国贸易结构促进经济增长途径已由资本积累转变为技术进步;将贸易结构与人力资本做交叉后的实证分析发现,贸易结构在2002年后不仅为正,而且其对经济增长的促进效应增长了一倍,说明我国贸易结构升级空间极大;即便如此,我国贸易部门比非贸易品部门的全要素生产率仍同世界发展中国家平均水平相差30%。     

技术贸易中应注意的几个关键问题

<正> 技术是一种特殊的商品,技术贸易不完全等同于一般性商品的贸易。在技术贸易过程中,技术许可接受方(即买方)往往处于不利的地位。本文主要从买方的角度谈技术贸易中应当     

B宏观经济专题研究：中国对外贸易的技术结构

在讨论中国的贸易结构时，贸易品的附加值是一个经常被涉及的问题。较普遍的认识是中国的出口品主要是低附加值产品。即使在贸易分类统计中可以看到中国的高新技术产品出口占据了很大比例，中国在高新技术产品生产过程中也被认为主要处于低附加值的生产阶段。诚然，这种现象是存在的。但不可否认的是，中国在过去二三十年中，贸易品的技术结构发生了很大的变化。中国已经从以原料为主的出口国转变为了以制成品为主的出口国，同时，制成品的技术层次和技术水平也在不断提高。     

对外直接投资与贸易品技术结构提升:韩国的经验及启示

本文基于韩国近20年来的经验数据分析证实,韩国通过对外直接投资实现了要素的全球优化配置,从而为贸易品技术结构提升创造了条件。     

中国出口贸易技术水平的地区比较分析

本文结合贸易品分类法和技术附加值指数法,给出出口贸易技术水平4个测算指标,利用中国省际数据比较分析各地区的出口贸易技术水平.贸易品分类法和技术附加值指数法的测算结果有一定的正相关性.无论用何种指标,重庆、上海、江苏、北京、天津都是出口贸易技术水平比较高的地区.上海、江苏等贸易依存度高的省市近几年出口贸易技术水平不断升级...     

Immigrant Specificity and the Relationship between Trade and Immigration: Theory and Evidence

Studies routinely document that immigrant employment concentrates in non‐traded goods sectors and that many immigrants have low inter‐sectoral mobility. We consider these observed characteristics of immigrant employment with regard to the question of how immigration affects a nation's pattern of production and trade. We model an economy producing three goods; one is non‐traded. Domestic labor and capital are domestically mobile but internationally immobile. Allowing that some new immigrants will become specific to the non‐traded goods sector, the model indicates that the effects of immigration on output and trade depend importantly on the sectoral pattern of employment of both new and existing immigrants. Empirical investigation in a panel data set of OECD countries supports the model's prediction that immigration raises the output of non‐traded goods. Consistent with the model, we also find that immigration and trade are complements. Given its empirical support, the model's implications for immigration policy are then discussed.     

Trade Restrictiveness in the Presence of 'New' Goods

The Trade Restrictiveness Index (TRI) by Anderson and Neary (1994) is an index number aggregating trade distortions in the context of a small open economy. A liberalization process which allows trade in goods not traded in previous periods, implies different sets of goods in the two successive periods over which the TRI is defined; this may introduce a bias, inherent in index numbers. This paper attempts a refinement of the standard TRI to allow for the presence of newly traded goods in the definition of the index. In addition, an implementable expression of the refined TRI is provided.     

Consumption-investment trade-off,wage-profit trade-off,and terms of trade

In most modern models of international trade the assumptions made are that goods are produced, consumed and traded internationally according to the dictates of national utility functions. The gains of international trade are also seen to be higher levels of utility.This paper uses an input-output model to determine which country specializes in capital-good manufacture and which in the consumption goods. The criterion determining this in a planned economy uses the property of maximum growth rate of goods produced for a given per capita consumption (or its reverse causation of maximum per capita consumption for a given growth rate). For free market economies the criterion is taken to be in terms of profit-rate maximization for a given real wage or its reverse.Using these criteria the investment-consumption frontiers or wage-profit frontiers are described in this paper by corresponding equations. The changes in terms of trade are then interpreted as various forms of technical progress. The equations are also depicted forthe case of thriftiness of entrepreneurs being less than unity.     

消费结构升级与技术进步

文章将技术进步分解为技术效率与技术创新,并沿着成果转化、自主创新和技术模仿等路径,探讨了消费结构升级对技术进步的影响及条件。文章认为,消费结构升级引导着资源的配置方向;沿着不同的路径,消费结构升级带来了不同形式的技术进步。一方面,消费结构升级可促进科技成果转化,在生产前沿不变的条件下提高技术效率。当发明专利得到更好的保护时,生产者推动成果转化的积极性会提高,这时,可用的科技成果越多,消费结构升级越能推动技术效率提升。另一方面,消费结构升级还能推动企业突破现有的生产前沿,实现技术创新。由于小企业运营更灵活、竞争压力更大,在企业平均规模较小的市场结构中,消费结构升级更能推动技术创新;而政府主导的研发往往缺乏行业需求等信息,可能与消费者的实际需求脱节,因此,政府主导的研发投入越多,消费结构升级越难拉动技术创新。不仅如此,在开放条件下,企业还可以通过模仿去满足消费结构升级带来的新需求,进口越多,模仿的空间越大,这种模仿会提升技术效率,但可能会不利于技术创新。基于1999-2015年的省级面板数据,文章对上述假说进行了检验,结果表明上述论断成立。     

‘Towards improved monetary policy in Indonesia’: a comment

This comment argues that inflation-focused policy is appropriate for Indonesia but that it should be directed at underlying inflation over the medium term. It contends that McLeod's monetarist explanation of inflation in Indonesia is unsatisfactory in theory and is not consistent with the evidence: traded goods prices rose before, and substantially more than, non-traded goods prices during the crisis of 1997–98, which is not consistent with the monetarist view that inflation was caused by excessive base money growth.     

Adjustment to devaluation in a small country

Summary This paper presents a simple model of adjustment to devaluation in the context of a small, open economy consisting of traded goods, non-traded goods, and money. The analysis stresses the purely transitional importance of substitution and liquidity effects following devaluation, and at the same time, derives the time path of adjustment of the trade balance and the price of non-traded goods.The major result of interest is that during the process of adjustment, the substitution and liquidity effects both act so as to improve the trade balance, but work in opposite directions on the excess demand for non-traded goods.     

Unanticipated vs. Anticipated Tax Reforms in a Two-Sector Open Economy

We use a two-sector neoclassical open economy model with traded and non-traded goods to investigate the effects of unanticipated and anticipated tax reforms. First, an unanticipated tax reform produces an expansion of GDP, labor, and investment, while an anticipated tax reform has opposite effects before the implementation of the labor tax cut. Quantitatively, if the traded sector is more capital intensive, GDP increases by 1.6 percentage points or declines by 2.7 percentage points after three years, depending on whether the tax cut is unanticipated or anticipated. Second, we find that GDP change masks a wide dispersion in sectoral output responses. As long as investment is both traded and non traded, a tax reform substantially raises the relative size of the non-traded sector after three years while traded output always drops. Third, a tax reform improves welfare in all scenarios, more so if the markup is endogenous, but less so if the shock is anticipated. Importantly, we find that welfare gains in a two-sector economy with capital accumulation and perfect access to external borrowing are between 39 % and 89 % higher than those in an economy without physical capital.     

Quality,experience, and monopoly: the Soviet market for weapons under Stalin1

Monopoly is a particular problem in markets where experience goods are traded, since the consumer cannot respond to bad experiences by switching repeat purchases to another supplier. New evidence shows how the defence ministry as buyer in the Soviet market for military goods responded to this problem by investing in an evaluation of quality prior to purchase, by showing reluctance to buy, and by exploiting the available non‐market means to influence the defence industry as supplier. The effectiveness of these stratagems was limited by the defence industry's counteractions and because the buyer had no choice but to come to a compromise with the supplier.     

China＇s Trade Acceleration and the Deepening of an East Asian Regional Production Network

China＇s recent surge in trade has been associated with its deepening but contrasting trade relations with its two groups of key trading partners. On the one hand, China＇ s trade surpluses with the USA and the EU have risen rapidly, reaching US$144bn and US$91bn in 2006, respectively. On the other hand, China is importing heavily from its Asian neighbors. This diverging pattern of trade relations between China and its main trading partners reflects the continuous expansion and intensification of a complex cross-border production network in Asia, particularly for consumer electronics. In the process of deepening manufacturing sharing, China serves as an essential export platform for firms headquartered in the more advanced economies. These firms export intermediate goods from the relatively more advanced Asian economies to their affiliates in China where these inputs are assembled and then shipped to key export markets, including primarily the USA and the EU. One apparent outcome of the growing processing and assembly trade is the increased interdependency among Asian economies, which are now more dependent on each other than ever. It has also led to substantial structural changes and technological upgrading in China＇ s traded goods.     

Public debt and relative prices in a cross-section of countries

This paper examines the effects of debt and distortionary labor taxation on the long-run behavior of the relative price of nontraded goods. At the theoretical level, in a two-sector open economy model we demonstrate that higher public debt, associated with higher taxation, contracts labor supply in both traded and nontraded goods sectors. Relative prices move inversely with relative supply shifts which, in turn, depend on relative factor intensities. At the empirical level, for a panel of advanced economies, we find statistically significant effects of public debt and taxes on the relative price of nontraded goods, with higher debt and taxes associated with higher relative prices.