贸易与金融

东南亚出口形势出现转机印尼水泥出口大幅度上升贸易与金融近几个月来，东南亚地区一些国家在经历了连续３年的出口下滑之后，形势出现了转机，出口额开始回升，这对经济复苏起到了重要的推动作用。从１９９６年开始，东南亚国家受国际电子产品市场需求疲弱、地区贸易萎缩...     

东南亚出口促经济复苏初显成效

今年以来，东南亚国家的出口捷报频传，许多国家以美元计算的出口额与去年同期相比都有所增加，一扫１９９７年金融危机以来的下滑颓势，使人们看到了经济复苏的曙光。在遭受金融危机打击之后，东南亚各国痛定思痛，相继对自己的经济作出调整并制定了以出口促经济复苏的战略。经过调整，各国的经济结构正在向电机和汽车等高附加值产业转变。另外，金融危机中各国货币同时下跌也增强了商品在国际市场上的竞争力，扩大了对美出口。现在各国的出口和经济复苏已经产生了协同效果，使经济显现出光明前景。据海外媒体报道，泰国６月份的出口额比去…     

韩拓展东南亚整厂设备出口市场

据海外媒体报道 ,韩国大韩贸易投资振兴公社 (ＫＯＴＲＡ)指出 ,在过去２～３年间一度停滞的东南亚整厂设备市场 ,目前已恢复生机 ,预计韩国对这一地区的出口将重现曙光。该公社指出 ,近来 ,随着东南亚经济的复苏 ,韩国对这一地区中间材料及资本货物的出口增加 ,促使韩国与东南亚形成互补性的交易形态 ,尤其在整厂设备生产方面 ,由于东南亚国家本身的生产能力有限 ,使韩国的出口机会大为增加。据统计 ,截至７月份 ,韩国对东南亚国家的出口金额总计达１１６亿美元 ,较１９９９年同期增加２０ % ,主要出口产品有半导体、生产装备、冷冻空调机…     

东南亚经济渐趋复苏及其对云南外经贸的潜在影响

金融危机给东南亚各国的经济发展带来沉重打击,各国痛定思痛,采取一系列措施对经济中存在的种种弊端作了较大幅度的改革。如在经济结构的调整中,努力使产业结构升级、优化,通过货币贬值优势加大出口力度,尽量减少进口,优化进出口结构;对金融业进行了大刀阔斧的改革,通过破产、兼并、重组、注资的方法使银行恢复生机;不断出台比金融危机以前更优惠的政策吸引外资重返,并对外资加强监控和管理;调整财税政策,扶持处境困难的企业。通过以上措施的实施,从１９９８年１０月开始,东南亚经济开始逐渐复苏。一、东南亚经济逐渐复苏的主…     

东南亚经济的复苏与重组

近年来，东南亚经济经历了金融危机后的严重衰退、迅速复苏、再陷衰退和又呈复苏的增长轨迹。面对国内经济的急剧波动，东南亚国家政府积极采取措施，大力实施国内经济重组与调整。2004年将是东南亚国家政权更替、经济重组和区域整合的关键一年。     

日本家电厂商看好东南亚市场

亚洲经济危机爆发以来，东南亚家电市场也大幅缩小。但随着今年东南亚经济的逐渐复苏，日本各大家电公司又重返东南亚市场，在该领域进行投资和技术转移。日本松下公司将通过在泰国和马来西亚的松下ＡＶＣ子公司生产平面显像管电视，并打算将该公司所生产的２１、２５、２９英寸的平面电视回销日本；马来西亚松下公司则决定于今年底前生产２１及２５英寸电视，向周边国家出口；日本东芝公司已于今年７月在泰国生产２５英寸以下的平面显像管，并在中国大连的工厂进行装配。日本夏普公司将其生产的液晶电视相继出口到新加坡及中国台湾地区，预…     

技术经济动态

东南亚国家重提大型基建项目对经济复苏的重要性为了刺激经济的增长,光指望外部环境自然变好是消极的方针,东南亚国家应采取积极的财政政策和改革措施,最大限度地刺激本区域内的需求。刺激区域内的需求包括三方面的含义,一是各国政府努力扩大本国的基建规模;二是东南亚各国政府加强联合,推动本区域一些大型跨国基建项目的实施;三是力求本国出口贸易的多元化。目前,东南亚一些国家政府和有识之士又重提因东南亚金融危机而搁置了两年的一些大型跨国基建项目,希望藉此推动东南亚国家经济的全面复苏。过去几年,东南亚部分国家已经酝酿…     

泰国经济复苏之路并不平坦

１９９９年１～４月，泰国的出口额仅为１７７亿美元，比１９９８年同期下降了２．４％。作为经济增长主要推动力之一的出口业的疲软乏力，极有可能影响今年泰国经济的复苏。泰国经济对出口的依赖性很强，出口长期以来一直占泰国国内生产总值的４０％左右。１９９７年７月东南亚金融危机爆发前，泰国经济的年增长率几年来一直保持在８％左右的高水平上，而出口拉动则被普遍认为是这种高速增长的重要原因。金融危机的爆发使泰国经济严重衰退，１９９７年经济增长率为－０．４％，１９９８年为－８％。泰国政府为克服金融危机给国民经济造成的…     

中国对东南亚国家基建关联产业出口潜力实证与增长空间估计北大核心CSSCISSCI

基建关联产业是支撑"一带一路"倡议推进的主要优势产业和依托。本文纳入中国与东南亚国家间文化、地缘相近及中国-东盟自贸区建成等因素,利用面板引力模型首次量化估计中国对东南亚国家基建关联产业的出口潜力和未来出口增长空间。研究发现,中国和东南亚国家的经济增长和文化联系纽带显著促进中国的基建关联产业出口,中国对泰国、印尼和菲律宾等国基建关联产业的出口潜力较大,而其余东南亚国家因经济规模和市场容量较小,出口潜力有限。2017-2021年内中国对东南亚国家基建关联产业出口增长空间大,应重点选取经济规模和市场容量较大、地缘和文化相通性高的合作对象,以充分发挥中国对东南亚国家基建关联产业的出口潜力。     

东南亚经济复苏有望

１９９８年年底,东南亚金融危机出现了种种缓解的迹象,有的国家货币稳步反弹,股市逐步攀升,外资再度源源流入,金融动荡的压力大大减缓。经济专家普遍认为,在新的一年里,东南亚国家有望摆脱金融危机困扰,慢慢走上经济复苏之路。在过去的一年里,东南亚国家为尽快平...     

Monetary policy responses of Asian countries to spillovers from US monetary policy

Regional integration in Asia has been considerably enhanced over the past 20 years or so. Whether integration helps Asian countries reduce their vulnerability to external shocks or is a channel for spreading external shocks remains an open question. This paper assesses the spillovers from US monetary policy shocks to Asian countries while taking into account country‐specific characteristics in explaining differences in timing and magnitude of responses across Asian countries. The results indicate that policy interest rates in Asian countries generally respond to innovations in the Fed rate in the same direction, but typically with a lag of one quarter. However, the size of the responses varies across Asian countries with respect to country‐specific characteristics. These results suggest that an independent monetary policy may not be feasible for an Asian developing country that adopts a pegged rate regime while being extensively integrated into the world economy. However, the hypothesis of the impossible trinity may not be relevant in the case of China.     

关于东亚区域货币合作问题的分析

1997年的亚洲金融危机给东亚各国的经济带来了沉重打击。此后,东亚各国纷纷认识到开展区域内货币金融合作的必要性,并以此来增强抵御风险、化解危机的能力。这次亚洲金融危机改变了东亚国家的政策取向,区域经济一体化步入制度性安排的快车道,这也为东亚区域货币合作创造了条件。另外,美元区与欧元区的相继建立和运行不仅证实了最优货币区理论在实践上的可行性,也增强了东亚各国在货币合作问题上取得成功的信心。本文将要对东亚区域货币合作问题做以探讨分析,从而说明东亚区域货币合作的必要性和可行性。     

投资者保护、金字塔结构与控制权私有收益

本文以沪深两市A股2004年-2007年度非流通股交易发生控制权转移公司为样本,基于投资者保护角度研究金字塔结构与控制权私有收益的关系。研究发现,两权分高度、金字塔结构控制层级、控制链条及其复杂程度与控制权私有收益显著正相关,金字塔结构实质上成为控股股东获取控制权私有收益的传送带;进一步检验发现,投资者保护环境的改善在降低控制权私有收益的同时,还能抑制金字塔结构与控制权私有收益的正相关性。     

Do exchange rate arrangements and capital controls influence international capital flows and housing prices in Asia?

This paper investigates the influence of international capital flows on housing prices in eight Asian countries, including China. We focus on determining whether exchange rate arrangements and capital regulations influence capital inflows and housing prices. Our results show that an arrangement to restrain the fluctuation of the exchange rate and capital controls has the potential to raise housing prices in Asia. The strong prospect of the Chinese yuan's appreciation also pushed up housing prices in China. Another expected reason for the increase in capital inflows into Asian markets is the expansion of global liquidity. Such capital flows often have a sensitive reaction to market sentiment, and an increase in asset market volatility caused by the liquidity squeeze decreases Asian housing prices. These results suggest the need to review capital controls and future exchange rate system options for Asian countries.     

Toward regional financial and monetary cooperation in East Asia1

The financial and economic crisis in 1997–98 came as a dramatic shock to East Asian economies, and has prompted to institutionalize a regional financial and monetary cooperation. This paper demonstrates the strong will of East Asian countries to develop the regional financial and monetary cooperation, outlines recent developments, and provides possible prospects for the future. It points out that the option to keep consistent with the IMF system actually weakens regional solidarity, and recommends an immediate establishment of a strong regional surveillance and peer pressure mechanism for the Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI) to evolve into a common pool of foreign exchange reserves, a sort of East Asian IMF. It also argues that East Asian countries should closely coordinate their exchange rate regime to maintain intra‐regional and extra‐regional exchange rate stability.     

Do Asian Countries Upgrade in Global Value Chains? A Novel Approach and Empirical Evidence

This paper examines the move into upstream and downstream global value chain (GVC) activities by 11 Asian countries. We use international input–output tables in combination with employment data and measure the number of workers in each country involved in manufactures GVC. Jobs are classified by business function based on occupational information, such as R&D, fabrication, logistics, sales and marketing. In most Asian countries, we find a faster employment increase in R&D and other support services relative to fabrication activities between 2000 and 2011. However, the participation in GVC and the pace of upgrading appears to differ substantially across Asian countries. We use a structural decomposition method to explore the role of trade, consumption and technological change in accounting for changes in countries' involvement in GVC.     

中亚国家贸易便利化发展及其评价

本文通过对中亚国家贸易便利化发展的回顾,认为中亚国家在海关通关、贸易物流、商务环境等方面促进了贸易便利领域的发展,但总体上表现为贸易便利化进程缓慢,各国贸易便利化发展差异大,贸易便利化各领域发展失衡,这严重制约了区域内的贸易增长。同时,通过分析和评价,提出了对中国的几点启示：一是在多边贸易组织框架和区域经济合作组织框架下不断推动中亚国家贸易便利化的发展;二是通过政府间的交流与合作推动中亚国家贸易便利化建设;三是加强本国,尤其是与中亚国家毗邻的新疆的贸易便利化建设。     

新疆参与中亚区域经济合作的经济效应分析

新疆作为中国与中亚国家经贸合作的最重要平台,在＂上海合作组织＂和＂中亚区域经济合作（CAREC）＂框架下积极参与中亚区域经济合作。本文认为,这对新疆产生了积极的贸易投资效应：一是新疆对中亚国家的贸易规模不断扩大、贸易结构不断优化,且贸易方向发生转移;二是促进新疆吸引外商直接投资和国内资金,并促进新疆对中亚国家的投资。然而,成员国经济发展水平、区域经济合作的机制不完善以及融资机制的缺陷是制约区域经济合作效果的主要因素。     

Asia's ‘little divergence’ in the twentieth century: evidence from PPP-based direct estimates of GDP per capita, 1913–69

This article uses expenditure-based purchasing power parities (PPPs) to estimate GDP per capita in comparable prices for 12 Asian countries for six benchmark years during the period 1913–69. The article finds that in 1913 levels of real GDP per capita in several countries were comparable to those in Japan. GDP per capita in Japan and other Asian countries diverged during and after the First World War. The article questions whether Asia's ‘little divergence’ between Japan and other Asian countries dates back to the late eighteenth century. It draws attention to the different resource endowments of Japan, China, and India compared to other Asian countries, and their implications for the development trajectories of Asian countries. The article demonstrates that using historical PPP estimates yields estimates of GDP per capita that diverge from those based on retropolations of the single 1990 PPP-converted benchmark year. It concludes that historical estimates of PPPs are needed to confirm analyses of comparative economic performance based on available GDP per capita data.     

Climate Change Economics and Policy in the Asia Pacific

This paper examines the implications of international efforts to mitigate the impacts of human activity on climate for countries in the Asian Pacific region. The Asian Pacific region is the major source of global growth in greenhouse gas emissions. To reduce global emissions requires strong action in Asian countries, particularly China and India. Domestic policies to limit the growth in greenhouse gas emissions are already in place in some Asian countries, in part driven by the desire to limit energy consumption. But much more ambitious policies are needed to turn emission trends around.