The Impact of House Prices on Consumer Credit: Evidence from an Internet Bank

This paper shows that house price fluctuations can have a significant impact on credit availability. Data from Prosper.com, a peer‐to‐peer lending site that matches borrowers and lenders to provide unsecured consumer loans, indicate that homeowners in states with declining house prices experience higher interest rates, greater credit rationing, and faster delinquency. We find especially large effects for subprime borrowers whose balance sheets are likely most exposed to asset price declines. This evidence suggests that asset price fluctuations can play an important role in determining credit conditions and are thus a potentially significant mechanism for propagating macroeconomic shocks.     

Home-Purchase Limits and Housing Prices: Evidence from China

Home-purchase limits, introduced by China’s central government in April 2010 and afterward implemented by the local governments of major cities successively, were usually regarded as the most stringent policy instruments regulating over-heated Chinese housing markets over recent years. Our study attempts to investigate the effects of the home-purchase limits based on the micro data of resale housing transactions between January 2008 and December 2011 in Guangzhou city, one of the largest cities in mainland China. Our regression results show that, while the central government’s notice negatively affects housing prices, the localized home-purchase limit measures have positive effects on housing prices in Guangzhou, which deviate far from the expectations the policy makers might have. We also find that the effects of the policies are significantly stronger for the housing units of high-rise building (or with big size) relative to those without elevators (or with small size). We provide the explanation from the aspects of policy uncertainty and redevelopment option embodied in the housing.     

信贷约束、房价与居民消费率——基于面板门槛模型的研究

本文在考虑经济互动关系中内在非线性结构前提下,从信贷约束角度探讨了房价波动对消费的影响机制,并基于我国31个省级区域的面板数据利用Hansen门槛模型进行实证分析,研究发现:总体上我国的房价上涨会抑制消费。我们进一步论证这一现象与广大居民仍面临着较多信贷约束有直接关系。本文同时发现,房价的这种负面影响会随着信贷约束的放松程度而发生非线性的变化。     

Pet Policy and Housing Prices: Evidence from the Condominium Market

This paper examines the economic impact of restrictions against keeping domestic pets in residential dwellings. Using a large data sample of condominium sales, we empirically estimate price effects associated with pet restrictions. Our results suggest that an unrestricted pet policy creates a significant premium in condominium price, along with discounts for condominiums that do not allow pets or have pet restrictions. This finding is useful for policy makers, developers of new condominium projects, and condominium owner associations in their decisions to establish or alter laws and regulations regarding restrictions on pet owner residents.     

Housing Prices and Maturing Real Estate Markets: Evidence from Uganda

Uganda, a less developed but rapidly growing East African nation, continues to correct the economic mismanagement of past governments. One important legacy of this mismanagement is the Land Decree of 1975, issued by then President Idi Amin Dada. This decree nationalized all land and made illegal all private real estate market transactions. This paper uses a rich, but little known, dataset to show that real estate markets appear to have continued operating reasonably efficiently in spite of the 1975 Decree. The Land Act of 1998 repealed the 1975 Decree. Our results suggest the recent Act has a high likelihood of success because its primary goal is to codify guarantees of security, transparency, and enforceable property rights in private real estate markets that appear to already exist.     

The Dynamic Relationship Between Housing Prices and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from OECD Countries

This paper studies the dynamic relationship among house prices, income and interest rates in 15 OECD countries. We find that any disequilibrium in the long-run cointegrating relationship among these variables is corrected by the subsequent movement in house prices in most of these countries. This error-correction property of house prices implies that most of the variations in house prices are transitory, as compared to the movements in income and interest rates that are permanent, suggesting that the short-run movements in house prices are independent of the movements in income and interest rates. The results suggest that only the permanent movement in house prices, income and interest rates are associated with each other. We also find that the correlation in house price cycles across different OECD countries has changed over time with the highest correlation during the boom period of 1998–2005.     

房价上涨对P2P网络借贷成本的影响分析——来自“人人贷”的经验证据

本文利用中国P2P行业代表企业“人人贷”网络贷款平台的交易数据和中国70个大中城市的房价数据,实证研究了房价上涨对P2P网络借贷市场上的借款利率所产生的影响。实证结果表明,房价上涨显著增加了P2P借贷市场上的借款利率。进一步分析发现,房价上涨对P2P借贷市场上生产经营类、买房类和其他消费类借款项目的借款利率均具有显著的正向影响,且这一增加效应在生产经营类和买房类借款项目中体现得更为明显。此外,基于异质性的分析还发现,相比于一二线城市,房价上涨对三四线城市借款项目的借款利率影响更大。本文的研究发现,房价上涨对新兴互联网信贷市场的影响机制存在,这为相关部门制定房价调控和互联网金融监管政策提供了参考和补充。     

Population Structure and Housing Prices: Evidence from Chinese Provincial Panel Data

This study analyzes the relationship between the proportion of the economically active population aged 15–64 to total population and housing prices. A panel of 31 provinces in China from 2002 to 2014 is used in our analysis. We find empirical evidence that the impact of the population structure on housing-price growth increases as the population growth rates rise. This observation suggests that, to understand provincial housing price movements in China, one should consider the ratio of working-age population to total population in a province. The main policy implication is that Chinese policymakers need to ensure a moderated population growth to effectively promote stability in housing prices and the economy.     

The Impact of Financial Arrangements and Institutional Form on Housing Prices

Dwellings in housing cooperatives constitute 15% of the Norwegian housing property market. The price paid for such dwellings consists of two elements: An equity price and a share of the mutual debt held by the cooperative. The interest rate paid on the housing cooperative’s mutual debt is in Norway lower than the interest rate paid on private loans. This gives rise to an “interest discount effect”. We find convincing empirical support for the interest discount effect, which contributes to a higher equity price for dwellings in housing cooperatives than for self-owned dwellings. On the other hand, we also find empirical support for a co-op discount of 9.3%. The co-op discount work in the direction of making cooperative dwellings more affordable.     

The Impact of TOM on Prices in the US Housing Market

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - Search theory shows that real property prices and marketing durations are simultaneously determined and positively related. Yet, empirical studies...     

房价过快上涨对实体经济的影响:文献综述

自1998年启动住房分配货币化改革以来,我国房地产市场发生了革命性的变化,房地产业已成为国民经济的重要支柱。而历史经验则已反复证明,如果经济发展过分倚重房地产,听任房地产价格持续快速上涨,将对投资及全要素生产率、消费、收入分配、财富分布,以及财政收入产生不利影响,并有可能诱发系统性风险,进而影响国民经济持续稳定健康发展。因此,要从供给侧加大改革力度,加大土地供给数量,调整财税体制,加快推进房地产税立法工作,加快形成促进房地产市场稳定发展的长效机制。     

The Announcement Effect of an Airport Expansion on Housing Prices

The purpose of this study is to examine the influence of the announcement of a new airport hub on housing prices near the airport. While numerous studies of airport noise have found that high noise levels reduce property values, few have been able to measure the announcement effect on values. The results indicate that after controlling to extraneous influences, housing property prices in a 2.5 mile band from the Greensboro/High Point/Winston Salem metropolitan airport declined approximately 9.2% in the post-announcement period. In the next 1.5-mile band, house prices declined approximately 5.7% in the post-announcement period.     

老龄化背景下住房负担能力对家庭创业行为的影响——来自CHFS数据的证据

基于2013—2017年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)三期面板数据,利用房价收入比作为住房负担能力的衡量指标,实证分析老龄化背景下房价收入比对家庭创业行为的影响。结果表明：房价收入比越高,家庭参与创业活动的积极性越低;老龄化进程的加快会进一步加剧高房价收入比对家庭创业活动的抑制作用。进一步分析发现,在老龄化加剧背景下,高房价收入比的创业抑制效应主要集中在仅有一套房的家庭中。基于此,提出在促进房地产市场平稳健康发展的同时,需积极加快完善养老服务体系并引导家庭理性配置资产。     

The Effectiveness of Regulation Fair Disclosure: Evidence from an Emerging Market

The effect of corporate disclosure in emerging markets is not clearly predictable because of the prevalent information leakage prior to disclosure. We empirically examine the effectiveness of Regulation Fair Disclosure (Reg FD) in reducing information asymmetry among equity traders in an emerging market. Specifically, we test whether fair disclosure activity is negatively related to the probability of informed trading (PIN). Multivariate tests on a sample of listed companies in Korea subject to Reg FD reveal the following: (1) more frequent disclosure under Reg FD is related to lower information asymmetry, and (2) this relation differs across the types of disclosure, with the effect of qualitative disclosures on the PIN being weaker than that of quantitative disclosures. Evidence also indicates that the negative association between fair disclosure activities and information asymmetry is more (less) pronounced for firms with poorer (better) information environments where selective information leakage is more (less) likely. The results are robust to sensitivity tests. Our findings have implications for disclosure regulations in emerging markets, given that the existing literature casts doubt on the effectiveness of corporate disclosure in such markets.     

The Impact of Information Processing Costs on Firm Disclosure Choice: Evidence from the XBRL Mandate

This paper examines the effect of market participants’ information processing costs on firms’ disclosure choice. Using the recent eXtensible Business Reporting Language (XBRL) regulation, I find that firms increase their quantitative footnote disclosures upon implementation of XBRL detailed tagging requirements designed to reduce information users’ processing costs. These results hold in a difference‐in‐difference design using matched nonadopting firms as controls, as well as two additional identification strategies. Examination of the disclosure increase by footnote type suggests that both regulatory and nonregulatory market participants play a role in monitoring firm disclosures. Overall, these findings suggest that the processing costs of market participants can be significant enough to impact firms’ disclosure decisions.     

The Impact of Housing Markets on Consumer Debt: Credit Report Evidence from 1999 to 2012

We estimate the response of consumer debt portfolios to pronounced housing market swings from 1999 to 2012 using Equifax‐sourced credit report data and a variety of identification approaches. We find: (i) the extraordinary climb in home equity debt from 2002 to 2006 is an expression of a stable, longer‐term relationship between house price growth and home equity borrowing; (ii) all preboom homeowners, and older and prime postboom homeowners, demonstrate near dollar‐for‐dollar substitution between (expensive) credit card and (cheap) home equity debt in response to home equity changes; and (iii) little evidence of substitution between home equity and student loan debt.     

房价对城镇居民收入差距的影响研究

依据我国33个大中城市2000—2017年的面板数据构建动态面板模型,考量房价对城镇居民收入差距的影响及区域性差异。结果表明:房价上涨对于城镇居民收入差距扩大具有显著正向影响,且对东部城市的影响显著高于非东部城市,人均GDP、政府教育投入、城镇人口比重和第三产业比重也对城镇居民收入差距具有一定影响。鉴此,宜从税收政策、产业结构、政府教育投入及居住成本等方面合理控制城镇居民收入差距。     

区域异质性视角下人口老龄化对住房均价的影响研究

在我国老龄化程度较深且进程持续加速的背景下,研究老龄化对住房均价的影响具有重要意义。同时,我国不同区域的人口年龄结构、房地产市场发展特征差异较大,不能简单混为一谈。因此本文结合实际国情,利用全国31省(市、自治区)1999~2018年的面板数据,分区域研究人口老龄化对商品住宅价格波动的影响。模型回归分析结果显示:我国老龄化进程对住房均价构成显著冲击;不同区域老龄化水平对住房均价的影响存在较大差别;其他因素对住房均价的影响具有区域异质性特征。最后,为应对老龄化冲击、助力我国房地产市场平稳运行、维护国家经济社会和谐稳定,提出合理控制老年抚养比、完善养老保障体系、采取差异化调控措施、促进区域协同发展等对策建议。     

Market Segmentation and Stock Prices: Evidence from an Emerging Market

We examine the relationship between stock prices and market segmentation induced by ownership restrictions in Mexico. The focus is on multiple classes of equity that differentiate between foreign and domestic traders, and between domestic individuals and institutions. Significant stock price premia are documented for shares not restricted to a particular investor group. We analyze the theoretical and empirical determinants of premia across firms and over time. In addition to economy-wide factors, segmentation reflects the relative scarcity of unrestricted shares. The results provide additional support for Stulz and Wasserfallen's (1995) hypothesis that firms discriminate between investor groups with different demand elasticities.