The relationships between income and price elasticities in studies of housing demand,tenure choice,and household formation

Three decisions pertaining to the demand for housing are (1) household formation, (2) tenure choice, and (3) how much housing to consume, given the household formation and tenure choice decisions. Income and price elasticities can be estimated that include one, two, or all three of these decisions. The relationships between these elasticities are developed.     

An econometric model of housing price, permanent income, tenure choice, and housing demand

This paper addresses the determination of housing price, permanent income, tenure choice, and housing demand. Full housing demand elasticities incorporate the interactive effects among the four stages of the model. Price and income have major effects in the tenure choice equation. Sociodemographic variables, such as age, have complex effects that may be lost in simpler forms of estimation.     

Tenure choice and housing demand in Japan

This paper reports the results of an empirical analysis of tenure choice and housing demand that makes use of household-level data from Japan. The paper finds that the price and permanent-income elasticities of demand for owneroccupied housing are approximately −0.8 and 1.4, respectively, and that these estimates are highly robust. The price elasticity estimate is comparable to those for other countries, but the income elasticity estimate is much higher, possibly because of the greater accuracy of the income variable. It is also found that the tenure choice and housing demand decisions are apparently not made simultaneously.     

居京韩国人住房租买选择内在影响因素分析

北京要建设世界城市,研究外国人在北京的住房租买选择,对城市空间布局和房地产发展具有重要实践意义。本文以居京韩国人为研究对象,通过调查访谈所掌握的第一手数据资料,运用卡方(χ2)检验方法对韩国人在京租买房的内在影响因素进行了分析。研究发现,居京韩国人租买房决策主要与各职业群体对中国当地社会的依存度、家庭收入水平、未来居留时间等因子正相关,与他们在韩国是否有住房没有明显的相关性。另外,驻京大型公司的职员因有其公司给予的住房补贴,一般租房居住,对购房持消极态度。     

Housing tenure choice: Evidence from time series

A model of tenure choice is specified and estimated. A simple expression to represent the expected rate of return on equity for a homeowner is developed. Also the influence of the federal housing subsidy programs is analyzed. Both, plus permanent income and the implicit rental price of owner-occupied housing, are important determinants of tenure choice. Other influences are the financing gap with the standard mortgage instrument in an inflationary environment, the number of children less than 18 per family, assets and liabilities, and mortgage credit terms. Finally, the changes in housing tenure choice over the estimation period are analyzed.     

The downpayment constraint and housing tenure choice : A simplified exposition

This paper uses a two-period model to illustrate the effect_ of the downpayment constraint on housing tenure choice. The key trade-off induced by the constraint (the sacrifice of initial consumption in return for the tax-related benefits of eventual homeownership) is clearly portrayed. In addition to illustrating the basic problem, the analysis derives the impact of parameter changes on the outcome of the tenure decision.     

Does Home Ownership by Parents Have an Economic Impact on Their Children?

This paper uses the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to explore the impact of housing on children's productivity through educational attainment and through their housing choices as adults after they leave their parent's home. After controlling for other factors that are normally hypothesized to affect an individual's education and earnings, we find that the average child of homeowners is significantly more likely to achieve a higher level of education and, thereby, a higher level of earnings. We also find that having controlled for the factors traditionally thought to influence an individual's choice of housing tenure, as well as other parental characteristics, the housing tenure of parents plays a primary role in determining whether or not the child becomes a homeowner.     

Cross-sectional estimation of a simultaneous model of tenure choice and housing services demand

In this paper we analyze the demand for housing services, integrating into a single analysis a systematic treatment of several important conceptual and empirical issues. Our three major objectives are to (1) evaluate the empirical importance of the simultaneity between the tenure choice and consumption level decisions; (2) analyze the relationship between household type and housing demand; and (3) present new estimates of the parameters of housing demand which are based on detailed microdata. In the process, we derive and estimate overall income and price demand elasticities which incorporate the impacts of income and price on both the tenure choice and consumption level decisions.     

Housing tenure transitions of older households: Life cycle, demographic, and familial factors

Understanding the housing choices of the older households will grow in importance as the baby boom generation starts to retire. This analysis utilizes a rich longitudinal data set (PSID) to provide insight into the reasons why older households make housing transitions. Because of the richness of the data, this analysis is able to control for life transitions, a household's income and wealth, and connection to one's children in predicting when a homeowner makes a housing transition. The results demonstrate that age is not related directly to housing tenure choice for older households. Instead, having lower health status and being a single head of household is the important predictor of housing tenure transitions. At the same time, very few life changing events immediately lead a homeowner to become a renter, although they do influence the decision to downsize or consumer home equity. Finally, living next to one's children lowers the probability of becoming a renter or downsizing, and having richer children increases the probability of downsizing and thereby consuming one's housing wealth.     

Housing Decisions of Young Swedish Adults

Pooled and longitudinal data for the years 1989 and 1992 were used to study the housing decisions of young Swedish adults before and after the 1991 Swedish tax reform. Although the household formation and tenure choice decisions of young adults were found to be simultaneously determined, neglecting the cross-equation correlation between these two decisions had no major impact on the estimated coefficients. Demographic factors were found to significantly affect both the household formation and tenure choice decisions. Economic factors were also found to significantly affect young adults' choice of tenure mode. This is however not the case regarding the household formation decision. Young adults' decision whether to form a household was found to be rather insensitive to economic factors. Furthermore, the impact of the relative cost of owned to rented housing was found to be significantly lower after the 1991 Swedish tax reform. One possible explanation might be the smaller variation in relative cost of owned versus rented housing between households after the 1991 Swedish tax reform. Finally, neglecting household-specific heterogeneity in the tenure choice estimation causes a downward bias in the parameter estimates.     

Estimating the Income Elasticity of Demand for Housing: A Comparison of Traditional and Lorenz-Concentration Curve Methodologies

This paper provides a comparative analysis of traditional and Lorenz concentration curve (LC) approaches to estimating the income elasticity of demand for housing. Using data from the 1989 American Housing Survey, we compare LC results with those obtained from a traditional model in which tenure choice and housing demand are jointly determined, and which includes non-income determinants of demand. The comparison is intended to provide researchers with information concerning specific differences in empirical results obtained using the two approaches.     

居京韩国人住房租买选择内在影响因素分析

北京要建设世界城市，研究外国人在北京的住房租买选择，对城市空间布局和房地产发展具有重要实践意义。本文以居京韩国人为研究对象，通过调查访谈所掌握的第一手数据资料，运用卡方（χ^2）检验方法对韩国人在京租买房的内在影响因素进行了分析。研究发现，居京韩国人租买房决策主要与各职业群体对中国当地社会的依存度、家庭收入水平、未来居留时间等因子正相关，与他们在韩国是否有住房没有明显的相关性。另外，驻京大型公司的职员因有其公司给予的住房补贴，一般租房居住，对购房持消极态度。     

The Effect of the Probability of Marriage on Housing Demand for Single Women

This paper uses a simultaneous system of three equations to model housing choices for female-headed households (FHH). The system includes housing demand, the probability of owning, and the probability of marriage. Also, a wealth gap variable related to the downpayment constraint is measured and included in the tenure choice estimation. The probability of owning is lower for female householders anticipating marriage. The wealth gap significantly affects the home-ownership decision for all households, and wealth constrained FHHs are significantly more responsive to changes in the relative price of owning.     

THE USE AND ABUSE OF MARKETS IN HOUSING POLICY

This paper argues that, despite its rhetoric in support of markets, government does not understand how markets work, but is rather trying to use certain aspects of markets to control social housing. The paper looks at three areas: first, the idea of private finance and how this is used by government as a form of public policy; second, the notion of risk and whether it actually occurs in social housing; and third, the contention that government is incapable of appreciating the manner in which markets operate because it only wishes to provide safe options and so cannot countenance real choice and competition.     

Marital history and home ownership: Evidence from Australia

The relative cost of owning and renting housing and housing affordability have been clearly established as important determinants of home ownership. But the roles of marital status and history have been largely ignored. In this paper we show that both current marital status and past history affect ownership. Past history matters because wealth accumulation is greater among couple households than singles owing largely to economies of scale in housing consumption. Moreover, wealth is lost upon divorce. In effect, past marital history affects the affordability of owner housing. This result is shown in the estimation of model explaining wealth, leverage and tenure choice using Australian datasets.     

Mobility and optimal tenure choice

In this paper, we offer a dynamic model of the optimal tenure behavior of an individual who faces the possibility of moving multiple times during his lifetime. We also investigate the lifetime effects of such factors as income tax, property tax, transaction costs, and mortgage rates on the household’s tenure choice. The agents in the model utilize a genetic algorithm, a probabilistic search approach, to determine their optimal lifetime tenure choice path. The agents are forward looking in that they anticipate such possible events as changes in jobs, marital status, household size, or dissatisfaction with current residence. Our results suggest several housing policy implications and explain some of the empirical findings in the literature.     

Tenure decisions,mortgage interest,and the spatial distribution of housing demand: A theoretical analysis

This paper develops a model for analyzing household tenure decisions and life cycle planning decisions that must be made simultaneously with housing location decisions. It is found that increases in the leverage sensitivity of mortgage interest structures lead to flatter housing gradients within the city. We examine conditions under which households tend to move further from the center with age and income and under which home purchasers will tend to outbid renters at distances further from the center.     

Residential mobility and housing tenure choice

This paper treats housing tenure choice and residential moves as joint decisions. The parameters of a semi-Markov model with two states, renting and owning and continuous time, length of stay, are estimated with data from the U.S. Panel Study of Income Dynamics for 1970–1980. Several distributional assumptions for residence spells confirm the basic role played by housing prices, wealth and other characteristics. Higher wealth implies higher likelihood of owning higher mobility for renters and lower for owners. Households with educated hands are more mobile. Housing modal prices may have statistically very significant coefficients, but not always as anticipated.     

Tenure choice and the riskiness of non-housing consumption

This paper analyzes a household's choice of housing tenure within a dynamic utility maximization model that yields simple analytical results under uncertainty of income, housing prices, and rents. Given a housing consumption plan, we show that a decrease in the covariance between a household's earnings and housing rents increases the likelihood of ownership. A household who plans to remain in its home over a long period is more likely to own; a household who plans to remain in its home over a short period is more likely to rent. The higher the covariance between the user cost of a home and that of other properties a household is likely to consider in the future, the more likely the household is to own this home. These predictions of our model find support in recent empirical studies.     

Graphical procedures for identifying functional form in binary discrete choice models: A Case Study of Revealed Tenure Choice

This paper introduces procedures for plotting and analysing partial residuals for binary logit choice models. Seen within the general context of a movement away from purely inferential statistical model-building towards more ‘data-analytical’ or exploratory approaches, these graphical methods are presented as offering significant advantages over established methods of identifying the functional forms of discrete choice models. An empirical example is developed in the context of revealed tenure choices in London, England, in which a number of revisions are made to the functional form in the light of the analysis of partial residual plots. These results are discussed in relation to the dynamic and policy-dominated British housing market.