收入不确定性对农民消费的影响研究

不确定性一直是限制农民消费的重要因素,研究和测算不确定性对我国农民消费的影响对于解决农民消费问题具有重要意义。本文通过调整离差率对收入不确定性进行测算,并采取构造消费函数和进行分段比较两种方法对收入不确定性与农民消费之间的作用关系进行实证研究。研究发现:收入不确定性的数值大小及其方向问题都对农民消费具有显著影响。进而,在此基础上,提出促进我国农民消费升级的对策建议。     

收入分配和不确定性对城镇居民消费的影响——基于动态面板模型的检验

笔者利用1998—2008年30个省(市)的相关数据分析消费习惯、收入、收入分配差距、教育和医疗支出的不确定性以及房价、利率等因素对消费的影响。实证结果表明,消费习惯、收入、房价、利率和不确定性对居民消费都有显著影响;收入、收入分配差距是影响居民消费的主要因素,弹性系数分别达0.83和-0.21;利率和购房支出对居民消费有正向影响,但影响不大;教育和医疗等体制改革导致的居民对未来支出预期的不确定性是影响城镇居民消费的重要因素。     

The Impact of Vocational Training on the Unemployment Duration

In this study, we estimate a semiparametric hazard model to assess the impact of vocational training on the duration of unemployment spells. Our research work is based on the data obtained from the District Labor Office in Słupsk, Poland from 1999 to 2007. We employ matching methods to take into account the potential sample selection problem, i.e., finding an adequate control group for the group of trainees. Therefore, we estimate a random-effects probit model for the likelihood of participation in a training program. The main question of this paper is whether the training significantly raises the transition rate from unemployment to employment in the short and the long run.     

The Impact of Globalization on the Structural Unemployment: An Empirical Reappraisal

This paper analyzes the direct effects of various measures of globalization on the structural unemployment in 87 countries for the period from 1991 to 2014. The model specifications are based on the Ricardian Comparative Advantage and the Heckscher–Ohlin models. It is found that one standard deviation increase in the trade openness approximately leads to 0.6 percentage point lower structural unemployment rate. The effects of economic, social, and political aspects of globalization on the structural unemployment are also negative, but they are found as statistically insignificant. The paper also implements various robustness checks and argues potential implications.     

The Effect of Hysteresis on Fluctuations in Unemployment and Inflation when Inflation Expectations are Adaptive

The recent level of unemployment may affect the natural rate of unemployment. The implications of such an hysteresis effect for macroeconomic fluctuations is analyzed using a stochastic dynamic model. The greater the importance of an hysteresis effect, the more pronounced are fluctuations in unemployment and inflation. Complete hysteresis causes the economy to be unstable.     

收入分配不平等对刑事犯罪的影响

本文利用1988—2006年中国省级面板数据,采用动态面板数据估计了收入分配不平等对刑事犯罪率的影响。研究发现,控制跨省人口迁徙、福利支出、失业率等因素并作相关的稳健性检验以后,以基尼系数度量的收入分配不平等上升1个百分点,刑事犯罪率将至少上升0.185个百分点,并且收入不平等程度不断上升会导致政府增加福利支出以降低刑事犯罪率;城市化会导致刑事犯罪率上升;提高人力资本水平和增加福利支出都会对遏制犯罪发挥重要影响。     

城乡收入差距、人均收入及失业率对犯罪率的影响——基于2003～2007年我国省级数据的面板分析

本文通过固定效应模型分析了收入差距、失业率、城乡绝对收入水平对刑事犯罪率的影响,并且对执法警力支出可能产生的内生性影响进行稳健性讨论.分析得出收入差距与犯罪率存在显著的正相关,而失业率对犯罪率的影响并不显著,且城乡绝对收入水平对犯罪率产生反向的影响.在减少收入分配不公的同时加强新农村建设,缩小城乡收入差距,完善社会福利制度和加强法制建设,有利于降低犯罪率,促进和谐社会发展.     

异质预期对货币政策实施效果的影响分析

异质预期理论是近年学术界在对理性预期理论进行深入研究之后的新成果,有助于我们更好地理解微观主体预期与货币政策执行效果之间的关系,也能够更好地诠释货币当局与微观主体之间信息沟通的内涵。本文在梳理了异质预期理论以及公众学习理论的基础上设计了一个存在溢出效应的公众学习模型,用以分析微观主体异质预期的相互影响,并以此模型的结论为框架对中国货币政策实施效果进行分析。     

The Uncertainty of Academic Rent and Income Inequality: The OECD Panel Evidence

The article presents an alternative view on the education—income inequality relationship, which calls into question the neoclassical claim that education increases labor productivity and hence contributes to a higher output, wage and consequently more even income distribution. In the context of public policies, education needs to be seen not only as a factor of income mobility, but also as a “positional good,” which benefits graduates at the expense of non-graduates. Education generates “academic rent,” by which we mean uneven remuneration of workers based on academic signs of distinctions that do not necessarily reflect differences in productivity. Using the robust panel model on a sample of OECD (Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development) countries from 1980 to 2015, we show that investments in human capital lead to lower inequality, but overinvestments tends to increase income inequality, which may be related to academic rent. In discussing this result, we consider that uncertainty of academic rent under the condition of a rapid transformation of the workplace caused by the fourth industrial revolution.     

浅析收入差距产生的不确定性及其对农民消费行为的影响

从农村居民收入差距扩大的角度对农村居民收入的不确定预期进行分析,通过基尼系数对农民消费倾向的影响模型分析,得出收入差距扩大是产生收入不确定性感受增强的一个原因,并且在市场经济体制改革后收入差距的增大对农村居民消费需求产生了负影响。提出相应建议以缩小收入差距,降低农村居民收入的不确定性,扩大农村消费。     

The Private Provision of Public Goods under Uncertainty: A Symmetric-Equilibrium Approach

Various studies have examined whether increased uncertainty about the non‐Nash response of others to an individual's voluntary contribution to a public good affects that individual's contribution so as to mitigate the free‐rider problem. We extend this single‐agent approach to the analysis of a symmetric equilibrium. We provide conditions on group size and endogenous relative risk aversion that imply increased equilibrium contributions in response to greater uncertainty about the productivity of each individual's contribution to the actual level of the public good. These results enable us to broaden the circumstances in which the theory predicts that increased uncertainty reduces free riding.     

The Effect of Better Information on Income Inequality

We consider an OLG economy with endogenous investment in human capital. Heterogeneity in individual human capital levels is modelled by a distribution of innate ability across agents. This distribution is common knowledge but, at young age, no agent knows his/her ability. The production of human capital depends on each individual’s investment in education. This investment decision is taken only after observing a signal which is correlated to his/her true ability, and which is used for updating beliefs. Thus, a better information system affects the distribution of human capital in each generation. Assuming separable and identical preferences for all individuals, we derive the following results in equilibrium: (a) If the relative measure of risk aversion is less (more) than 1 then more information raises (reduces) income inequality. (b) When a risk sharing market is available better information results in higher inequality regardless of the measure risk aversion. We are grateful to Alex Cukierman, Zvi Eckstein, Yona Rubinstein and Daniel Tsiddon. An anonymous referee made extremely useful comments and suggestions. Financial support from the German-Israeli Foundation for Scientific Research and Development (GIF) is gratefully acknowledged.     

Economic Versus Accounting Income: The Impact of Education on Students' Concepts

A study of differences in approach to value and income concepts by students with and without formal accounting education is presented by Kida and Hicks. They found that students without accounting training tend to regard income as a change in value and well-being; those with accounting tend to view the income concept from an accounting procedural approach. The question is raised whether accounting majors might not benefit from additional training in economic theory beyond a basic principles course to broaden their approach to “theoretical value-based concepts.”     

The Impact of Unemployment Insurance on the Job Match Quality: A Quantile Regression Approach

This paper investigates the impact of unemployment insurance (UI) generosity on the distribution of the match starting wage and tenure. We show evidence of a positive shift in the location (mean) and scale (variance) of both variables: more generous UI increases expected starting wage and tenure, and this impact is greater at the highest quantiles. In this sense, more generous UI reduces the thickness of the lower tail of match quality (shorter and lower paid jobs), and, at the same time, increases the quality of matches available to all workers (the location effect on match duration and wages). These results can be seen as favorable evidence of match quality gains from UI generosity.The authors would like to thank Pedro Portugal, José A. F. Machado, Francisco Lima and an anonymous referee for helpful comments and discussions, as well as participants at the following conferences: ESPE – Paris, EEA – Amsterdam, LACEA – Paris and IV Brucchi Luchino – Milan. We are also grateful to Marianne Bertrand for providing a file used to construct the simulated unemployment insurance benefits. Opinions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Banco de Portugal.     

城乡收入差距对消费需求影响研究

在目前外部经济受到较大冲击的情况下,刺激国内消费需求已成为中国面临的重要政策举措.作为影响消费需求的重要因素,城乡收入差距问题不能不成为我们研究的重点.本文总结了中国1978-2008年间社会消费与收入分配现状,从理论和实证两个方面探讨了城乡收入差距与消费需求之间的关系,根据相关结论,提出了增加农民收入、建立健全社会保障制度和加强收入调控等政策措施.     

Optimal Factor Income Taxation in the Presence of Unemployment

According to conventional wisdom internationally mobile capital should not be taxed or should be taxed at a lower rate than labour. An important underlying assumption behind this view is that there are no market imperfections, in particular that labour markets clear competitively. At least for Europe, which has been suffering from high unemployment for a long time, this assumption does not seem appropriate. This paper studies the optimal factor taxation in the presence of unemployment which results from the union-firm wage bargaining both with optimal and restricted profit taxation when capital is internationally mobile and labour immobile. In setting tax rates the government is assumed to behave as a Stackelberg leader towards the private sector playing a Nash game. The main conclusion is that in the presence of unemployment, the conventional wisdom turns on its head; capital should generally be taxed at a higher rate than labour.     

The Impact of Private Interest Contributions on RPS Adoption

In the last two decades, many U.S. states introduced policies to promote electricity generation from renewable energy sources (RES‐E). Renewable portfolio standards (RPS) are considered to be the key RES‐E policy tool to date. This article tackles the question on why some state legislators were front‐running the trend of RPS implementation whereas others adopted policies just recently, and why others have not adopted them at all. We compile data on financial contributions of conventional energy interest groups (CEI) and renewable energy interest groups (REI) to state‐level policy‐makers between 1998 and 2010. By means of hazard and tobit regressions, we test the effect of these financial contributions on the probability of RPS adoption and on RPS stringency. The article provides evidence in favor of interest group theory. First, CEI have donated more to state‐level legislators affiliated with the Republican Party than to Democrats while contributions from REI went largely to the latter. Second, there are statistically significant links between the likelihood of RPS adoption and private interest contributions. Contributions from CEI have a negative effect on the likelihood of RPS adoption whereas REI contributions have a positive effect.