我国金融发展与国际贸易的关系——基于1991-2005年数据的实证研究

随着经济一体化的发展,金融与国际贸易的融合及互动关系日益凸显,成为国际经济及区域经济发展中的重要现象。本文运用协整和格兰杰因果检验方法,研究了我国金融发展和国际贸易的关系,结论表明:二者存在长期稳定的均衡关系,金融发展对我国国际贸易的发展发挥了显著的促进作用,但国际贸易没有显著地促进金融发展。     

贸易自由化与中国经济增长关系的实证分析

本文以衡量贸易自由化的各种指标为出发点,选取贸易依存度作为研究指标,借助于协整检验、格兰杰因果检验等计量方法分析1990年以来我国外贸开放度与经济增长之间的关系,发现贸易依存度、出口依存度、进口依存度与经济增长存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,各变量之间有着单向因果关系,且出口、进口都对经济增长起着促进作用,故而,我国应二者并重,积极参与贸易自由化的进程。     

Linkage between international trade and economic growth in GCC countries: Empirical evidence from PMG estimation approach

This paper explores the empirical evidence of the links between economic growth and openness to international trade by controlling for auxiliary variables in the model for the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries over the annual sample period 1980–2010. After testing for cointegration based on a recent bootstrap panel test, we employ the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimation technique of M.H. Pesaran, Y. Shin, and R. Smith (1999. “Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels”. Journal of the American Statistical Association 94: 621–634) that is appropriate for drawing sharper conclusions in dynamic heterogeneous panels by considering long-run equilibrium relations. The results show evidence of cointegration relationship between the variables of interest, and reveal that economic growth responds positively to trade openness over both the short run and long run. The evidence is robust to using various trade openness measures and to alternative model specifications, suggesting thus the non-fragility of the linkage between economic growth and openness to international trade for the GCC region. Our findings are then promising and support the view that economic growth is directly and robustly linked to trade openness for the GCC countries.     

FDI、国际贸易及我国经济增长的协整分析与VECM模型

本文利用我国1983-2004年的经济数据进行实证检验,根据协整理论建立向量误差修正模型(VECM)。实证结果说明外国直接投资、国际贸易与经济增长间具有长期均衡关系,且我国国内生产总值的增长与外国直接投资有双向因果关系,但相互影响的程度不同;我国为出口导向型经济增长国家且外国直接投资对国际贸易具有促进作用.     

宁波国际贸易与海港城市发展互动关系研究

以宁波市1985年～2010年的相关数据为样本,利用VAR模型分析框架研究宁波市国际贸易与城市发展的互动关系,结果表明:宁波市国际贸易与城市发展之间存在着长期均衡的互动关系,其中城市发展对国际贸易具有相对微弱的促进作用,而国际贸易对城市发展有着相对显著的促进作用,宁波市政府应更加致力于提高对外贸易水平推进该市现代化国际港口建设。     

Trade (exports) as an opportunity for Bangladesh: A VECM analysis

ABSTRACT

This article examines the effects of trade (exports) on the economic growth of Bangladesh from 1986 to 2016, using the application of a Johansen cointegration and vector error correction model. The empirical findings exhibit that trade (exports) has a unique long-run equilibrium relationship with the economic growth of Bangladesh. The short-run results also display a robust causality between variables. This study suggests that exports play a major role in the growth of Bangladesh. Policymakers should promote the export of goods and services, especially manufactured goods, in the long term, in order to possibly reduce the trade deficit and rapidly stimulate the growth of Bangladesh.     

对外贸易与经济增长关系的实证分析--以山东省为例

对外贸易对经济增长的促进作用因不同的经济条件而有所不同。运用协整理论和误差修正模型，对山东省经济增长与对外贸易的相关性和因果关系进行实证检验的结果表明，山东省经济增长与出口和进口之间存在着长期的稳定关系，无论在短期内还是长期内，三个变量两两之间都具有显著的双向格兰杰因果关系，因此应继续坚定出口导向型的外向发展战略。     

香港对外贸易与经济增长和产业结构升级——“一国两制”和改革开放的成功结合与实践

对香港1987～2007年时间序列数据单位根检验的基础上,验证对外贸易、经济增长与产业结构三者之间的Granger因果关系.研究发现,香港包括港产品出口、转口和进口在内的对外贸易与经济增长之间存在双向Granger因果关系;同时经济增长与产业结构之间也存在双向因果关系.通过对香港的研究进一步发现,香港地区对外贸易与经济增长,经济增长与产业结构之间能互为因果形成较好的经济运行状态,很大程度上得益于"一国两制"在香港的成功实践与内地改革开放的成功结合.     

Trade openness,foreign direct investment,and finance-growth nexus in the Eurozone countries

The paper investigates causal relationships between trade openness, foreign direct investment, financial development, and economic growth in 19 Eurozone countries over the period 1988–2013. Using a panel vector error-correction model (VECM), the empirical results show that these variables are cointegrated. The study shows that a combination of opening the Eurozone countries for trade and fostering their financial and economic development have elevated inflows of foreign direct investment into the region in the long run. At the same time, increasing inflows of foreign direct investment in the short run have propelled economic growth, which in return has strengthened the role of financial development and international trade to sustain economic growth in the region through feedback effects. The empirical results have important policy implications for countries in the Eurozone, especially those who face challenges as a result of lack of confidence in their financial system and those who face a sovereign debt crisis.     

我国对外贸易与经济增长的实证分析

经济全球化的发展加强了对外贸易对一国经济的影响,对外贸易对经济增长的作用分析成为研究的热点。从一般贸易和加工贸易角度,研究贸易以何种方式和途径影响经济的增长。通过对我国1981-2002年的数据进行计量分析,揭示出我国一般贸易出口和加工贸易进口的发展对经济增长作用显著。     

人力资本、南北贸易与经济增长:一个分析框架

在Dixit和Norman、Grossman和Helpman的基础上构造了一个以人力资本为基础的内生技术变迁的国际贸易模型来考察南北贸易对经济增长的动态影响。和以前的文献不同,假定不存在技术的外部性,只存在人力资本的外部性,人力资本积累既是经济增长的源泉,又是贸易影响经济增长的动态机制的决定力量。初始人力资本禀赋决定着贸易分工,人力资本相对积累率决定着分工模式的演变和创新能力的消长,从而决定着长期增长率。因而,对于南方国家而言,提高人力资本积累率是其改变分工地位、提高创新能力、缩小经济差距甚至在长期内实现经济赶超的根本选择。     

Globalisation and Economic Growth: A Historical Perspective

This paper reviews the historical evidence on the relationship between globalisation and economic growth. Divergence in the growth of income and industrialisation in the twentieth century is documented but it is also noted that international income inequality appears to have decreased since about 1870 and that long-run trends in the Human Development Index are much less pessimistic about the experience of developing countries. It is argued that trade liberalisation has been good for growth on average but that successful capital liberalisation requires high institutional quality and that the developmental state may have an important role to play in the early stages of development. The recent claim by Robert Lucas that the 21st century will see a massive reduction in income inequality across countries in a globalised world economy is sceptically discussed in the context of empirical evidence that bad institutions are often persistent and that geography is still a major factor in explaining international income differences.     

Economic transformation, population growth and the long-run world income distribution

We present and calibrate a model where trade with advanced economies spurs development, and trade opportunities depend on the relative population in advanced and developing countries. As developing countries become advanced, prospects improve for the remaining developing countries. If population growth differentials between developing and advanced economies are small, economic development accelerates over time. Otherwise, long-run global prosperity requires a sufficiently large initial population in advanced countries. More open countries develop faster, but more openness by all developing countries may only modestly increase their aggregate growth. China's development may hurt developing countries in the short-run, but improves their long-run prospects.     

交通设施、金融深化、制度变迁及人力资本与FDI之间关系的实证研究

对外直接投资(FDI)对一个国家经济发展的影响是国际投资学理论研究的前沿和热点问题。FDI弥补了东道国的资金缺口,带来了先进的管理和技术等稀缺要素,同时FDI加速了东道国内部的产业结构调整和金融深化,推动了制度变迁,从多个角度深刻地影响了经济的发展。但是,究竟是东道国的哪些因素促进了FDI的流入?影响程度又有多大?为此,这里选择了有关制度变迁、金融深化、人均道路、产业结构、人力资本等多个自变量,利用现代计量经济学工具,对以上变量进行了选择,然后建立了它们与FDI的长期协整关系及误差修正模型,并进行了Granger因果检验,得出了有意义的结论。     

The simultaneous evolution of economic growth,financial development,and trade openness

This article empirically investigates the interactions among economic growth, financial development, and trade openness through simultaneous equation systems. The identification and estimation of the systems rely on the methodology of identification through heteroskedasticity. The empirical results show that each of the three variables interacts in important ways. When controlling for the reverse causation, trade promotes economic growth in high-income, low-inflation, and nonagricultural countries but has a negative impact on growth in countries with the opposite attributes. Similarly, when accounting for the feedbacks from growth, banks and stock markets have different impacts on economic growth. While banking development is detrimental to output growth, stock market development is more favorable to growth in high-income, low-inflation, and nonagricultural countries. The data also reveal coexistence of a positive effect of financial development on trade and a negative effect of trade on financial development in poorer countries. In richer countries, financial development stimulates trade openness whereas trade has an ambiguous impact on financial development.     

福建省FDI、对外贸易与经济增长关系的实证研究

福建省利用外资和对外贸易位居全国前列,对推动经济增长起到了重要作用。本文根据1981-2006年福建省统计数据,运用协整检验和误差修正模型,对福建省FDI流入、对外贸易与经济增长关系进行实证研究。结果表明,从长期看,福建省FDI、对外贸易与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,FDI、出口和进口明显促进了经济增长。从短期看,FDI、对外贸易与经济增长的长期均衡水平产生了偏离,但偏离误差修正的速度较快。最后,就福建外商直接投资、对外贸易和经济增长协调发展提出了若干政策建议。     

我国对外贸易政策经济绩效的实证检验

利用我国30年对外开放实践的有关时间序列数据,通过计量回归模型检验,发现传统贸易政策的贸易促进作用并不明显,而利用外资(FDI)却表现出极强的贸易与投资一体化态势。贸易政策作为产业政策的有机组成部分,正是通过推动体制变革和经济结构调整,来促进贸易与宏观经济协同增长。这也进一步佐证了经济结构演进对贸易政策的内生决定作用。     

服务贸易对国际大都市建设的作用

国际大都市的形成与服务贸易的发展具有密切联系。作为服务贸易基础的服务业过去和现在一直是城市经济发展的引擎。服务贸易自由化进程将给国际大都市建设做出关键的贡献。本文将首先通过历史和现在的一些实例分析服务贸易与城市发展之间的复杂关系,然后分析国际大都市服务经济的发展如何调整国际经济环境并在何种程度上与服务贸易自由化联系在一起,最后分析在国内外争夺"中心城市"的态势下上海"四个中心"建设应采取的战略。     

我国城乡居民消费、政府消费与经济增长的实证分析

以我国1978-2008年间的数据为样本,运用向量自回归模型分析了城乡居民消费、政府消费与经济增长之间的长期均衡关系,最后采用格兰杰因果检验对变量之间相互关系做了进一步检验。结果表明：城乡居民消费与经济增长之间相互影响,互为因果关系,且城镇居民消费对经济增长的影响更为显著;政府消费会引起经济负增长,同时也会对城乡居民消费有一定的挤出效应,尤其是对农村居民消费的挤出效应更大。