Tests of Random Walk for Latin American Stock Markets: Additional Evidence

ABSTRACT

This study examines the presence of random walk in stock returns in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela using variance-ratio tests as developed by Lo and MacKinlay (1988, 1989) and modified by Chow and Denning (1993). Daily, weekly and monthly index return series over a four- to eight-year sample period is used in the present study. Local currency rather than dollar denominated returns are used to avoid distortions caused by exchange rate behavior. The results indicate that while the return series for Argentina and Costa Rica follow random walk in a consistent manner, the return series for Peru does not, irrespective of the frequency of the data used. The results for the other sample markets vary as different frequency of data is used to estimate the variance-ratios.

RESUMEN. Este estudio examina la presencia del trayecto aleatorio o random walk en el retorno de las inversiones bursátiles realizadas en Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, México, Perú y Venezuela, usando la prueba de variación proporcional desarrollada por Lo y MacKinlay (1988, 1989), modificada por Chow y Denning (1993). En este estudio se usa una serie de índices de retorno diarios, semanales y mensuales a lo largo de un período muestra de cuatro a ocho años. También se utiliza como denominar la moneda local en vez del dólar, para evitar cualquier distorsión que pueda llegar a provocar el comportamiento de la tasa cambiaria. Los resultados indican que, mientras que la serie de retornos obtenidos en Argentina y Costa Rica siguen la norma del trayecto aleatorio, Perú no lo hace, independientemente de la frecuencia de los datos usados. Los resultados para otros mercados varían a medida que se utiliza una frecuencia de datos diferente para estimar la variación proporcional.

RESUMO. Este estudo examina a existência de um passeio fortuito no lucro das ações na Argentina, no Brasil, no Chile, na Colômbia, na Costa Rica, no México, no Peru e na Venezuela, utilizando os testes de índice de variância, desenvolvidos por Lo e MacKinlay (1988, 1989) e modificados por Chow e Denning (1993). Séries diárias, semanais e mensais de índices de retorno foram utilizadas neste trabalho, durante um período de amostragem de quatro a oito anos. Foi utilizada a moeda local, em vez do dólar, como parâmetro de retorno, para evitar distorções causadas pelo comportamento das taxas de câmbio. Os resultados indicam que, enquanto as séries de retorno para a Argentina e para a Costa Rica seguem o passeio fortuito de forma consistente, para o Peru isto não procede, independente da freqüência dos dados utilizados. Os resultados dos outros mercados utilizados como amostra, variam, conforme a utilização da freqüência diversa de dados, para avaliar os índices de variância.     

Mean reversion of inflation rates in seven Eastern European countries: An application of a fourier quantile unit root test

This paper applies recently developed Fourier quantile unit root test to investigate time-series property of inflation in seven Eastern European countries. This method combines the quantile unit root test with smooth unknown multiple breaks through Fourier function, and has good size and power when the data follows heavy tailed distribution. Our results show that the inflation rates are stationary within each quantile for Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Lithuania, while the other four countries contain a unit root within some quantiles. We also find the speed of inflation adjustment towards to its long-run equilibrium for each country is asymmetric. Our results have important policy implications for monetary authorities in these Eastern European countries.     

带结构突变的面板数据单位根伪检验研究

文章利用Monte Carlo模拟方法研究了带结构突变的面板数据单位根伪检验问题。研究发现,只有在突变前后样本数相差较大,或者均值突变不明显时,均值突变才不会导致传统面板单位根检验结果失效;趋势突变在绝大多数情况下将导致传统的面板数据单位根检验失效。     

外汇交易市场的汇率协整分析

本文通过单位根检验,确定汇率的价格序列具有一阶差分平稳性,在此基础上对外汇交易市场几种汇率之间的协整关系进行实证分析,研究发现他们存在着长期的稳定关系,这将有助于投资者制定决策并有效地规避风险。     

Current account sustainability in advanced economies

This paper investigates the sustainability of current accounts in advanced economies using a panel of 27 countries and annual data over the 1980–2008 period. Relying on various panel unit root tests and a sequential panel selection method, we find strong evidence in favour of nonlinear but stationary current account trajectories only for 7 countries, while the remaining 20 appear to be non-stationary and thus unsustainable. Our analysis indicates that careful empirical modelling of current account dynamics, particularly in relation to cross-section dependence and nonlinear behaviour, is crucial for appropriate economic policy-making.     

The Unification of the Colombian Stock Market: A Step Towards Efficiency–Empirical Evidence

ABSTRACT

The empirical evidence presented in this study shows that there has certainly been a structural change in the Colombian stock market since the merger of the three regional Exchanges (Bolsas) into the Colombian Stock Exchange (Bolsa de Valores de Colombia). This change has been reflected in a greater level of efficiency in that market. Regarding individual assets, the findings coincide with Samuelson (1998) in the sense that the stock market is micro-efficient but macro-inefficient, which means that the efficient market hypothesis performs better for individual stocks than for the aggregated price indexes of the market.

RESUMEN. La evidencia empírica presentada en este estudio muestra que realmente operó un cambio estructural en el mercado accionario colombiano a partir de la fusión de las tres Bolsas regionales en la Bolsa de Valores de Colombia. Este cambio se ha reflejado en un mayor nivel de eficiencia de este mercado. En cuanto a los activos individuales, los hallazgos coinciden con Samuelson (1998) en el sentido de que el mercado bursátil es micro-eficiente pero macro-ineficiente, es decir, que la hipótesis de la eficiencia del mercado se cumple mejor para acciones individuales que para los índices de precios agregados del mercado.

RESUMO. A evidência empírica apresentada neste estudo mostra que, sem dúvida, tem ocorrido uma mudança estrutural no mercado de ações colombiano, a partir da fusão das três Bolsas de Valores regionais, dando origem à Bolsa de Valores de Colombia. Esta mudança refletiu o alto nível de eficiência deste mercado. Quanto aos ativos individuais, percebe-se a coincidência com Samuelson (1998), no sentido de que o mercado de ações é micro-eficiente, mas também é macro-ineficiente, ou seja, que a hipótese de um mercado eficiente atua melhor para as ações individuais do que para os índices de preços agregados do mercado.     

The Influence of Fund Size and Investment Expenses on the Performance of Pension Funds in Brazil

ABSTRACT

This work investigates the relationship between investment expenses and pension fund size with investment performance, and whether or not past performance influences future performance. Relationships are presented between expenses, size and investment performance of pension funds in Brazil in the period 1998–2002. Utilizing regressions allowed for the conclusion that performance and expenses presented an inverse relationship, and that past performance does not offer any indication as to future performance, which indicates that active administration is not a good strategy. Finally, portfolio size presented a relationship inverse to performance.

RESUMEN. Este trabajo investiga la relación que existe entre los gastos incurridos por las inversiones, y el tamaño de los fondos de pensión con respecto al desempeño de las inversiones, para determinar si el desempeño del pasado ejerce o no algún tipo de influencia sobre el desempeño esperado. Hemos trazado una relación entre los gastos, tamaño y desempeño de las inversiones asignadas a los fondos de pensión en Brasil durante el período 1998–2002. El uso de estas regresiones nos permitió determinar que el desempeño y gastos presentaron una relación inversa, y que el desempeño anterior no ofrece ninguna indicación sobre el desempeño que se puede esperar en el futuro. Esto indica que la administración activa de los fondos no es una buena estrategia y, por último, determinamos que el tamaño de la cartera presentó una relación inversa al desempeño.

RESUMO. Este trabalho verifica se as despesas de investimentos e o porte do fundo de pensão estão direta ou inversamente relacionados com o desempenho dos investimentos. Apresentam-se relações entre despesas, porte e o desempenho dos investimentos dos fundos de pensão no Brasil, no período de 1998 a 2002. A utilização de regressões entre as medidas de desempenho, as despesas e o porte permitiu concluir que as despesas de investimentos e o porte das carteiras dos fundos de pensão apresentaram relação inversa com o desempenho dos investimentos. Essa descoberta favorece a idéia de que a administração ativa não é boa estratégia.     

我国出口贸易对经济增长影响的实证分析

本文分别利用1983-2003年的年度数据和1995-2004年的季度数据,运用协整检验及Granger因果检验等方法对我国出口贸易对经济增长的影响进行双变量和多变量的实证分析,结果显示,我国出口与经济增长之间不存在长期稳定的动态均衡关系,但是它们之间存在互为因果的反馈性联系,说明我国现阶段的经济增长是出口导向型的,文章对产生这种现象的原因进行了解释并且给出了相应的政策建议。     

国际股票市场收益率和波动率的长记忆性研究

股票市场长记忆性问题是金融学研究的一个热点问题,对于市场有效性的研究和系统非线性结构的分析有着重要的意义。本文运用修正R/S分析和V/S分析两种方法对世界上28个国家(地区)的股票指数的日、周收益序列和日、周收益波动序列进行了完整的长记忆性研究。结果表明:对于收益序列,以美国为代表的大多数发达国家股市一般不存在长记忆性,而中国等发展中国家大多存在显著的长记忆性,尤其中国股市的长记忆性最强;对于收益波动序列,所有国家(地区)都具有长记忆性,并强于收益序列。     

带漂移项的DF检验式中漂移项t统计量的分布特征研究

本文推导了带漂移项的DF检验式中漂移项的t统计量的极限分布,它们是Wiener过程的泛函。并用蒙特卡罗模拟方法给出该统计量的估计分布。该分布是双峰的,分布方差比t分布的大。依据模拟结果,估计出该分布的6个百分位数对样本容量的响应面函数,并给出带漂移项的DF检验式中漂移项是否为零的检验用表。     

局部平稳性未知条件下基于ESTAR模型的单位根检验

文章探讨了局部平稳性未知情况下ESTAR模型的单位根检验,提出了修正的Wald统计量,通过模拟给出了其临界值,推导出了该统计量的极限分布,并分析了在有限样本下该统计量的特性。通过蒙特卡罗模拟,该检验统计量具有良好的检验水平和较高的检验功效,进一步通过模拟发现在全局平稳非线性ESTAR模型下,该修正的Wald统计量比KSS型统计量具有更高的检验功效。     

人民币利率对汇率影响的实证研究：1981—2003

定量分析人民币利率对汇率长期走势与短期波动的影响,对于中国利率市场化与汇率制度选择等问题意义重大.对时间序列变量进行单位根检验、协整检验,以及建立误差修正模型等实证研究表明:无论在长期还是短期,人民币利率对汇率都是反向影响.长期内,利率对人民币汇率存在较强的影响;短期内,利率对人民币汇率影响较弱.我国利率主要还是通过商品市场间接地对汇率产生作用.     

中国通货膨胀持续性的非对称特征研究--基于分位数自回归模型和分位数单位根的研究

基于1990－2013年中国月度CPI数据,本文通过运用分位数自回归模型和分位数单位根检验方法,研究了中国通货膨胀惯性的非对称特征,并分析了不同分位点上的通货膨胀惯性系数、单位根检验结果和半衰期。结果发现：中国的通货膨胀持续期存在明显的非对称特征,1998年之后通货膨胀持续性要显著低于1998年之前;相比于高通货膨胀水平,低通货膨胀水平上的通货膨胀持续性要显著降低。     

生产性服务业崛起背景下鲍莫尔—富克斯假说的再检验——基于中国236个样本城市面板数据的实证分析

在生产性服务业崛起的背景下,通过构建理论模型,并利用中国236个样本城市2003—2007年间面板数据,从理论和实证两个方面检验鲍莫尔—富克斯假说在中国的存在性。研究发现:生产性服务业的崛起对鲍莫尔—富克斯假说形成挑战,改变了服务业比重与整体经济增长速度之间的线性关系;受生产性服务业发展的影响,随着服务业比重提高,二三产业的相对劳动生产率差距在缩小;服务业比重与整体经济增长速度之间呈非线性关系,随着人均GDP的提高,服务业比重与整体经济增长速度之间的负相关关系会弱化。     

对股票市场效率问题的四种理论分析方法

股票市场效率问题研究是金融经济学中的一个热点课题 ,很多学者对此进行了深入的研究。解释股市效率问题主要有 :有效率市场假说理论、微观信息经济学理论、行为金融学理论、以及股市内在效率和外在效率分析等四种理论分析方法。     

中日贸易与人民币汇率:实证分析

中日贸易与人民币汇率问题,其汇率变动对贸易收支的影响是值得怀疑的。在两变量模型中,1998～2003年月度数据计量表明,中日贸易与人民币汇率之间没有长期稳定的协整关系。并且,依据中日两国月度统计数据计量的结论是相一致的。在多变量模型中计量证实,日本对华贸易收支取决于日本总产出、日本进口关税、人民币对日元实际汇率,以及中国总产出等宏观经济变量,仅仅人民币对日元实际升值,只会对日本对华贸易收支产生不利的影响。政策建议是,中日两国应该采取贸易合作政策,这样中日双边贸易收支都将会得到改善。     

财政规模、经济增长与结构变化基于异期协变模型的经验证据(1952-2007)

本文运用我国1952-2007年财政规模与人均实际GDP数据进行实证分析,发现我国财政规模在1970年和1999年,人均实际GDP在1962年和1992年发生结构突变,两个序列都是含有两次结构突变的趋势平稳过程,而非单位根过程,在此基础上建立了异期协变模型,发现我国财政规模和经济增长之间具有长期动态均衡关系,政策含义是按照现有经济和人口增长水平,我国财政规模在未来还能够持续增长。     

Nonlinear Taylor rules in Central Eastern European countries

This study applies sequential panel selection method (SPSM), proposed by Chortareas and Kapetanios (2009) Chortareas, G., and G. Kapetanios. 2009. “Getting PPP Right: Identifying Mean-Reverting Real Exchange Rates in Panels.” Journal of Banking and Finance 33: 390–404.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], to investigate to test the validity of Taylor rules to assess the nonstationary properties of the convergence of the real exchange rates for 10 Central Eastern European countries. The SPSM can be used to decompose a panel of real exchange rate series into two groups: a group of stationary series and a group of nonstationary series. We identify the stationary processes in the panel and demonstrate that Taylor rules holds for 7 of the 10 countries studied. These results imply that the choices and effectiveness of the monetary policies in Central Eastern European economies are highly influenced by external factors originating from the United States. Additionally, our findings highlight that their real exchange rate convergence is a mean reversion toward equilibrium values of Taylor rules in a nonlinear manner.     

When unionisation is profitable for firms in network industries

In an industry characterised by the presence of network effects, this paper investigates a duopolistic game in which firms may choose whether to bargain over wages and employment with unions or to face a competitive labour market (i.e., without unions). If unions are sufficiently wage‐sensitive, it is shown that the presence of sufficiently large network effects makes unionisation the Pareto efficient sub‐game perfect Nash equilibrium outcome for firms.     

CENTRAL AND EAST EUROPEAN TRADE ORIENTATION AND FDI FLOWS: PREPARATION FOR EU MEMBERSHIP

At the June 1997 Amsterdam Intergovernmental Conference (IGC) the heads of state of the 15 European Union (EU) nations decided to expand to the East. At the Luxembourg IGC in December 1997, they invited the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Estonia, and Solvenia from Central and East Europe (CEE) and Cyprus from the Mediterranean region to begin admission talks in early 1998. Efficient involvement in international trade and the division of labor through foreign direct investment (FDI) are two of the most important prerequisites to economic transformation, modernization, and sustained economic growth. Thus, trade reorientation by the CEE nations from the former Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA) region to the OECD region in general and the EU in particu lar, as well as the volume and nature of inbound FDI are among the most reliable indicators of these countries' abilities to meet the EU admission standards. Trade reorientation by the CEE nations and FDI inflows between 1990 1995 have established a sound basis for effective economic transformation and modernization. It has also increased the ability of selected industries to compete in the EU Single Market. By 1997 the CEE nations were in a good position to generate sustained economic growth and to gradually meet the EU admission requirements.