Simple fiscal policy rules for small open economies

This paper analyzes the scope for rules-based countercyclical fiscal policy in small open economies where a subset of households is liquidity-constrained. Relative to balanced budget rules, structural surplus rules significantly improve welfare. But they minimize fiscal instrument volatility rather than business cycle volatility. More aggressively countercyclical tax revenue gap rules (strong automatic stabilizers) increase welfare gains by around 50%, with only modest increases in fiscal instrument volatility. If liquidity-constrained households' labor income is independent of raw materials prices, the government should save excess raw materials revenue on their behalf. The best fiscal instruments are transfers, consumption and labor taxes.     

Endogenous cyclical corporate tax burden in China: The role of tax quotas and growth targets

Using data from China Annual Survey of Industrial Firms and addressing potential endogeneity problem, we find that corporate tax burden in China is procyclical during recessions and countercyclical during booms. The cyclicality is stronger for enterprises whose corporate income taxes are levied by Local Tax Bureau (LTB). Procyclicality of corporate tax burden during recessions is larger for enterprises located in county, non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOEs), non-high-tech enterprises and large-medium enterprises. Furthermore, tax quotas and growth targets of local governments enhance procyclicality during recessions and the countercyclicality of corporate tax burden during booms. Tax collection and government spending are important channels through which tax quotas and growth targets affect the cyclicality of corporate tax burden, respectively. This paper provides important policy implications for China during economic recessions.     

Book reviews

This paper analyzes how fiscal policies and credit constraints can affect the impact of macroeconomic volatility on long-run growth. The model by Aghion et al. (2005) is extended by allowing for governmental fiscal policy over the business cycle. The analysis shows that in an economy facing credit constraints, an increase in volatility will result in lower mean growth, and all the more the less financially developed and the more procyclical the fiscal policy is. The main implication is that in countries with lower degrees of financial development, countercyclical fiscal policies are particularly important in reducing the negative consequences of adverse aggregate shocks on firms' long-run investments. An empirical analysis is finally conducted using different groups of countries that confirm the theoretical predictions.     

Optimal fiscal policy in a small open economy with limited commitment

We introduce limited commitment into a standard optimal fiscal policy model in small open economies. We consider the problem of a benevolent government that signs a risk-sharing contract with the rest of the world, and that has to choose optimally distortionary taxes on labor income, domestic debt and international transfers. Both the home country and the rest of the world may have limited commitment, which means that they can leave the contract if they find it convenient. The contract is designed so that, at any point in time, neither party has incentives to exit. We define a small open emerging economy as an economy where the limited commitment problem is active in equilibrium. Conversely, a small open developed economy is an economy in which the commitment problem is not active. Our model is able to rationalize some stylized facts about fiscal policy in emerging economies: i) the volatility of tax revenues over GDP is higher in emerging economies than in developed ones; ii) fiscal policy is procyclical in emerging economies; iii) emerging economies may “graduate” from procyclical fiscal policy and adopt countercyclical policies in the long run.     

宏观政策的协调机制与欧洲债务危机

通过政策调整损失函数的理论模型分析,认为负的需求冲击是构成欧洲债务危机的前提,而缺乏货币政策协调的持续性扩张财政政策是欧洲债务危机的本质原因。对2000Q1—2010Q1的"PIIGS"的季度数据进行实证分析后,发现5国独立财政政策和欧元区共同货币政策的协调机制是存在冲突的。希腊长期均衡和短期调整均存在主权债务危机风险,因而成为首个爆发危机的国家。西班牙、意大利的短期调整虽暂时缓解了主权债务危机出现的可能,但不能解决发生危机的根本问题。而爱尔兰、葡萄牙只是短期内实施了过度的积极财政计划而造成了主权债务危机假象。     

The performance of fiscal policy under an inflation targeting regime: What can be learned by the Brazilian fiscal rules?

This paper aims at, on the one hand, analyzing the Brazilian fiscal performance since the implementation of inflation targeting regime (ITR), June 1994, and the usefulness of fiscal rules to reach fiscal discipline in Brazil. On the other hand, it tries to evaluate what would have happened to the Brazilian government deficit if the new fiscal regime, that was implemented in 2016, would have been applied after the implementation of the ITR. Into this direction, we present an empirical analysis to describe three different fiscal rule scenarios, which includes a restriction related to inflation, depending on the preferences of the fiscal authorities: the austere, the symmetric or indifferent or the growth‐promoting environment. The main result of our empirical analysis is that, even in a context of ITR, the use of proper fiscal rule (countercyclical fiscal policy) helps to rationalize fiscal consolidation efforts by promoting a favorable environment for economic growth.     

Sovereign default, private sector creditors, and the IFIs

The data reveal that emerging market sovereign borrowing from International Financial Institutions (IFIs) is small, intermittent and countercyclical compared to that from private sector creditors. The IFI loan contracts offered to sovereigns differ from the private ones in that they are more enforceable and have conditionality arrangements attached to them. Taking these contractual differences as given, this paper builds a quantitative model of a sovereign borrower and argues that better enforceability of IFI loan contracts is the main institutional feature that explains the size and cyclicality while conditionality accounts for the intermittency of borrowing from the IFIs.     

财政政策的顺周期实施效应特征与基本成因

改革开放以来,为抵御外部风险、稳定经济增长,我国持续实施积极财政政策,政策设计愈发重视反周期相机调控理念.但政策的实施效果存在争议,不完全满足反周期特征,导致调控结果与初衷存在背离难题.为厘清我国财政政策效应的周期特征,本文引入多频谱分析,以极大似然小波分解(MODWT)剔除序列趋势成分的扩张效应干扰,利用带有时变参数的结构向量回归模型(TVP-SVAR)分析我国预算收支和经济波动的关系.结果显示,我国预算收支变化与经济周期趋同,财政政策的实施结果具有顺周期性.具体来看,我国经济增速变化一个单位将导致预算收支分别同方向变化0.7及 0.05个单位以上,预算收入变化一个单位将导致预算支出变化0.9个单位以上.本文还证明,预算收入的顺周期属性是导致支出与经济波动顺同的主要影响因素.     

A comparison of monetary and fiscal policy interaction under ‘sound’ and ‘functional’ finance regimes

The interest rate and the fiscal balance can be thought of as two independent instruments to be assigned to two targets, the path of output and the path of public debt. Under what we term a ‘sound finance rule’ the interest rate targets output while the fiscal balance targets public debt; under a ‘functional finance rule’ the budget balance targets the output gap and the interest rate targets the debt ratio. The same unique combination of interest rate and fiscal balance will be consistent with output at potential and a constant debt‐GDP ratio regardless of which instrument is assigned to which target. The stability characteristics of the two rules differ, however. At low levels of debt, both rules converge to the targets, but there is a threshold debt level above which only the functional finance rule converges. Contrary to conventional wisdom, therefore, the case for countercyclical fiscal policy becomes stronger, not weaker, when the ratio of public debt to GDP is already high. We apply our framework to describe the possibility of policy‐generated cycles in the United States over the past five decades.     

US Fiscal Policy and Asset Prices: The Role of Partisan Conflict

Fiscal policy shocks exert wide‐reaching effects, including movements in asset markets. US politics have been characterized historically by a high degree of partisan conflict. The combination of increasing polarization and divided government leads not only to significant Congressional gridlock, but also to spells of high fiscal policy uncertainty. This paper adds to the literature on the relationships between fiscal policy and asset prices in the US economy conditional on the degree of partisan conflict. We analyze whether a higher degree of partisan conflict (legislative gridlock) reduces the efficacy of the effect and response of fiscal policy on and to asset price movements, respectively. We find that partisan conflict does not significantly affect the relationships between the fiscal surplus to gross domestic product (GDP) and housing and equity returns. Rather, if important, partisan conflict affects the actual implementation of fiscal policy actions.     

我国现行财政支持农业保险政策绩效评价

2004年我国开始试点政策性农业保险制度,尤其是2007年中央财政首次安排专项农业保险保费补贴资金,我国农业保险进入了新的发展阶段。以农业保险的功能为标准,利用实证分析的方法,从农业保险参保率、农业保险供求规模和农户收入水平三个角度对我国现行财政支持农业保险政策进行绩效评价,并分析其存在的缺陷。虽然取得了巨大成就,但仍存在财政补贴比例低且结构单一,税收优惠力度不足,巨灾风险基金规模小,财政在农业保险再保险体系中缺失问题。     

“后危机”时代人民币主动国际化政策研究

2007年次贷危机爆发至今,对世界经济发展造成极大冲击。欧美等主要经济体都遭受到不同程度的破坏,经济发展放缓甚至倒退。而我国在积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策带动下,率先走出了此次危机。近期中央出台的一系列措施,旨在抓住机遇推行早已提上日程的人民币国际化。本文以后危机时代这一非常时期为参照,探究了人民币首次主动寻求国际化的政策转向,即从被动国际化转向主动区域化,并提出相关政策建议。     

ECONOMIC GROWTH AND THE EFFECTS OF FISCAL POLICY

The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy are analyzed using a Keynesian growth model. Comparative static analysis shows that the long‐run effects of an increase in public spending and a decrease in taxation on economic growth and government budget balance depend on the relative size of marginal propensity to consume and invest and could be positive under certain conditions. Empirical estimates show that consumption and production structure have changed significantly from 1930s to 2007; both positive and negative effects on growth and budget balance of the same fiscal policy are found in different time periods.     

财税政策不确定性的衡量——基于适应性学习预期的分析框架

我国财税政策重视短期矛盾调节而忽视长期稳定性,但鲜有研究论及财税政策不确定性问题,其中财税政策不确定性的衡量是重点也是难点。本文在适应性学习预期的分析框架下,对市场主体不同政策学习模式进行甄别,发现我国市场主体倾向于采取重视近期经验的持续性学习策略组成财税政策预期,并且政策预期不能向理性预期收敛,证明我国存在财税政策不确定性。然后,在此基础上构建相应指标来衡量我国财税政策不确定性程度。结果显示,由于财税政策规则不具备动态稳定性以及由此导致预期模式的不稳定,我国财税政策不确定性呈现内生性和系统性特征。本文进一步通过财税政策不确定性的宏观经济效应检验,发现其对生产、物价、出口等产生负面冲击,并且对生产导致符合经典理论的“超调”效应,在一定程度佐证了本文财税政策不确定性指标的一致性。最后,本文对治理财税政策不确定性提出相应政策建议。     

财政分权：转移支付、税收优惠与首位城市增长

中国的财政分权所带来的财权调整使得各省区地区间的经济发展差距发生一系列变化。本文基于中国27个省区2000-2012年的数据样本,通过构建空间面板模型研究了财政分权背景下转移支付和税收优惠对于首位城市规模增长的影响。结果显示,政府的转移支付政策对于抑制首位城市规模增加,平衡区域发展缺乏效率;对于中央政府财政依赖度越高的省区,其首位城市规模规模越大;省级政府对于外围城市偏向性的转移支付政策无法有效阻止首位城市的扩张。另外,首位城市能够借助相对优惠的税收政策进一步扩大规模范围。在此基础上,本文提出了相应的财政政策以及城市发展建议。     

战略性新兴产业财税政策实施效果研究--以陕西省数据为样本

本文运用耦合与协调模型,建立经济贡献、社会贡献、行业贡献、教育及科技贡献四个子系统共28个指标,为战略性新兴产业财税政策实施效果的评价构建了一个合理的框架。通过陕西省相关数据进行实证研究后发现,战略性新兴产业对经济和社会贡献度稳步提升,二者在大态势上呈现同步增长;不足之处在于政策实施的反馈作用滞后,导致协调度大于耦合度,内部要素相互影响、相互促进的程度有待提高。此外,财税政策促使行业贡献与教育及科技贡献的系统内部配合度上升趋势明显,但数值依然较小。鉴于此,应从观念、政策调整力度以及发展路径上对财税政策进行全方位评价与改进,以期推动战略性新兴产业健康发展。     

Übernivellierung der Einnahmen aus der Grunderwerbsteuer im künftigen Finanzausgleich

Fiscal Equalisation in Germany provides substantial fiscal redistribution between federal and state and among state governments. However, there is also a degree of tax autonomy for the individual German states. Since 2007, states can adjust their local rate of the Real Estate Transfer Tax. However, if they keep the rate low, they may suffer revenue losses due to fiscal redistribution. The paper considers whether this effect will also be present in the new rules for fiscal equalization which will come in to effect in 2020.     

The Lisbon Strategy and the Quality of Public Finances

In the mid-term review of the Lisbon strategy only moderate progress towards the European Union's becoming the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world by 2010 could be observed. The EU Commission had emphasised the impact of fiscal policy on the structural reforms necessary to achieve the Lisbon objectives. This paper examines the empirical relationship between fiscal policy and progress towards the Lisbon goals and offers a critical assessment of the indicators available.     

The new EU countries and euro adoption

In the new member states of the EU which have not yet adopted the euro, previous adoption strategies have come under scrutiny. The spillovers and contagion from the global financial crisis revealed a new threat to the countries’ real convergence goal, namely considerable vulnerability to the transmission of financial instability to the real economy. This paper demonstrates the existence of extreme risks for real convergence and argues in favour of a new adoption strategy which does not announce a target date for the currency changeover and which allows for more flexible and countercyclical monetary, fiscal and wage policies.     

积极财政政策的调整与财政改革

从当前及今后一个时期国内外经济发展态势分析和配合中央近期的宏观调控政策,应对积极财政政策加以调整.这不仅有利于巩固当前我国经济发展的良好势头,而且对于把握机遇促进我国经济社会长期稳定发展具有战略意义.在积极财政政策调整中要适当调减财政政策扩张力度,改进原来以长期建设国债为主的实施财政扩张性政策的工具组合,根据公共财政要求调整支出投向和重点.特别是应注重结合财政政策调整推进财政改革,完善税费制度,构建内需平稳增长机制,强化财政对结构优化的作用,并健全分税分级的公共财政体制,在长期建设国债规模缩小后,发展新的财政支出方式.