Tourism growth and income inequality: does Kuznets Curve hypothesis exist in top tourist arrival countries

This study examines the relationship between tourism and the income inequality in top 43 tourist arrival countries by using the data over the period of 1995–2015. We have applied advanced econometric techniques which include cross-sectional augmented IPS (CIPS) unit root test, bootstrap co-integration, Pedroni co-integration, fully modified ordinary least squares, and heterogeneous panel causality technique. The results confirm that all the variables are co-integrated in the long run. The result also shows that the tourism has a positive effect on income inequality in full and the region-wise sample. Furthermore, the Kuznets curve hypothesis is also tested and found its existence. This concludes that if the examined countries increase their tourism revenue this will help them to reduce income inequality. This study gives valuable policy implications for the government and the policy-makers.     

Modelling substitution between domestic and outbound tourism in Australia: A system-of-equations approach

This study uses a system-of-equations approach to model the substitution relationship between Australian domestic and outbound tourism demand. A new price variable based on relative ratios of purchasing power parity index is developed for the substitution analysis. Short-run demand elasticities are calculated based on the estimated error correction almost ideal demand systems. The empirical results reveal significant substitution relationships between Australian domestic tourism and outbound travel to Asia, the UK and the US. This study provides scientific support for necessary policy considerations to promote domestic tourism further.     

Estimating the tourism induced environmental Kuznets curve in France

Abstract

France has retained its position as the world’s favourite tourism destination. Accounting for around 83 million visitors and 4.2% of the total employment, the tourism sector in France contributes to nearly 9% of the total GDP. However, as reported by the World Tourism Organization, road and air travel related to tourism activities account for approximately 10% of the total CO₂ emissions in the atmosphere, thereby contributing to severe air pollution. Thus, initiatives are necessary to prevent environmental damage that could have a corresponding detrimental effect on the tourism industry itself and slow down the country’s economic growth. This study utilises a vector error correction model (VECM) to investigate the relationship between polluting emissions, GDP levels, and tourism flows in France to test the validity of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis for the period 1995–2014. Additionally, based on a joint analysis of long-run parameters and causality links, appropriate policy strategies are proposed to promote robust and sustainable long-run economic growth.     

长江中游地区产业结构对旅游业碳排放的影响研究

基于2000~2016年长江中游地区省域面板数据,构建产业结构和旅游业发展水平综合评价指标体系,并核算出该地区旅游业碳排放量,在此基础上通过建立向量自回归(VAR)模型,运用Johansen协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应和方差分解工具,分析产业结构、旅游业发展与旅游业碳排放的演变特征及影响机制。结果表明:研究区产业结构和旅游业发展水平在逐步提升的同时表现出显著的区域非平衡特征;产业结构、旅游业发展和旅游业碳排放之间存在长期均衡关系,且产业结构调整对碳排放影响更大;产业结构优化在长期内有抑制碳排放增加的作用,但目前研究区技术进步对旅游业的减排效应尚未显现,未来减排空间较大。     

Modeling Japanese Tourism Demand for Asian Destinations: A Dynamic AIDS Approach

This paper investigates the expenditure allocation of Japanese international tourism in its five major Asian destinations, China, Hong Kong, Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. The dynamic of linear approximation the almost ideal demand system is used to determine the long-run equilibrium while the short-run dynamics are represented by an error correction mechanism. The empirical results indicate that the changes in market shares of Japanese outbound tourism are significantly influenced by the changes in tourists' expenditure, rather than the changes in relative tourism prices. The results show that Japan expenditure rises, the market share of Taiwan and Thailand declines, while Korea benefits. In addition, price competitiveness is important for Japanese demand for Korea, but is relatively unimportant for the other destinations.     

Forecasting accuracy evaluation of tourist arrivals

This paper evaluates the use of several parametric and nonparametric forecasting techniques for predicting tourism demand in selected European countries. We find that no single model can provide the best forecasts for any of the countries in the short-, medium- and long-run. The results, which are tested for statistical significance, enable forecasters to choose the most suitable model (from those evaluated here) based on the country and horizon for forecasting tourism demand. Should a single model be of interest, then, across all selected countries and horizons the Recurrent Singular Spectrum Analysis model is found to be the most efficient based on lowest overall forecasting error. Neural Networks and ARFIMA are found to be the worst performing models.     

Impact of tourism on CO2 emission: evidence from Pakistan

This study investigates the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission–tourist arrival–growth in Pakistan by taking time series data from the period of 1972 to 2013. The study applied three approaches of co-integration (autoregressive distributed lag bounds test, Johansen and Juselius and Gregory and Hansen structural break test) to confirm the valid long-run positive interaction between CO₂ emission and tourist arrivals. The robustness of cointegrating vectors is further checked using fully modified ordinary least square and dynamic ordinary least square tests and results validate the long-run coefficients. The results of variance decomposition method exhibit the uni-directional causality between CO₂ emission and tourist arrivals running from tourist arrival to CO₂ emission. It was therefore noted that policies which moderate the influence of tourism development to emission are necessary for reducing the harmful effect of tourist activities and also to increase the impact of tourism upon the economic growth. The study may guide policy-makers in formulating categorical energy and tourism development policies for sustainable growth for long periods.     

中国旅游经济增长与碳排放的耦合关系研究

厘清旅游经济增长与能源消费及CO2排放之间的关系对于实现增长前提下的低碳旅游发展意义重大。文章采用"自下而上"法,估算了1991~2010年中国旅游业的CO2排放量,并运用脱钩理论、ADF单位根检验、协整分析以及Granger因果关系检验,辨识和分析了中国旅游经济增长与碳排放之间的耦合关系。实证研究结果表明,在研究样本区间内,中国旅游经济增长与CO2排放量除2003年为未脱钩以外,其余年份均处于相对脱钩状态;旅游经济增长与碳排放之间存在长期的协整关系;旅游经济增长构成CO2排放的Granger原因不显著,而CO2排放构成旅游经济增长的Granger原因较为显著,即存在从CO2排放到旅游经济增长的单向Granger因果关系。基于上述结论,提出相关政策建议。     

Testing on-site sampling correction in discrete choice experiments

This study uses truncated Poisson regression to correct endogeneity of discrete choice experiments (DCEs) with data from on-site sampling, which has been commonly used to collect samples in the field of tourism research. We find that goodness of fit of model is significantly improved with on-site sampling correction. Estimated parameters with onsite sampling correction also match the predictions of economic theory better. Estimated willingness to pay for attributes are substantially underestimated due to sample selection bias. These results question the use of DCEs without on-site sampling correction for tourism policy making.     

Tourism and economic growth nexus revisited: A panel causality analysis for the case of the Mediterranean Region

Tourism is perceived as an important source of foreign exchange that is used for financing economic growth. This study offers a modern approach to tourism-led growth and investigates the causal relationship between tourism and economic growth in the European, Asian and African countries that border the Mediterranean Sea. The study uses panel data for the period 1998–2011, and adopts a panel Granger causality analysis developed by Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) to assess the contribution tourism makes to economic growth in each country. The results indicate that the direction of causality between tourism and economic growth depends on the country group and tourism indicator. Furthermore, the European countries are better able to generate growth from tourism in the Mediterranean region.     

The Methodological Progress of Tourism Demand Forecasting: A Review of Related Literature

Research on modeling the estimation and forecasting of tourism demand has evolved with increasing sophistication and improved quality. In this study, 155 research papers published between 1995 and 2009 were identified and were classified into three main groups according to the methods and techniques adopted—an econometric-based approach, time series techniques, and artificial intelligence (AI)-based methods. It appears that the more advanced methods such as cointegration, error correction model, time varying parameter model, and their combinations with systems of equations produce better results in terms of forecasting accuracy. We also discuss the implications and suggest future directions of tourism research techniques and methods.     

Does personal freedom influence outbound tourism?

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of personal freedom in a country on outbound tourism after controlling for other relevant outbound tourism determinants. Using a panel of 80 countries over a period of 13 years (1999–2011) and applying panel fixed-effects and generalized method of moments (GMM) techniques, our results reveal that a lower level of personal freedom in a country increases outbound tourism. These results are more robust for developing countries.     

China's outward foreign direct investment in tourism

This study investigates the factors that influence China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) in tourism. Employing a panel dataset involving 21 host countries for 10 years (2004–2013), negative binomial regression modelling showed that Chinese outbound investment in tourism is, at least in part, determined by volume of tourism flows to host country, the scale of tourism in that country and the openness to inbound investment. Other variables such as trade relationships between donor and recipient country and measures of innovation were seemingly of little importance. The study indicates a divergence of Chinese firms' OFDI in tourism from its general OFDI country choice pattern and confirms that sector-specific factors may be playing a more significant part in China's OFDI in tourism.     

Modelling international tourism and country risk spillovers for Cyprus and Malta

Small Island Tourism Economies (SITEs) are developing sovereign countries that rely on tourism as a source of exports, and need a consistent inflow of foreign investment in order to facilitate economic growth. Access to international capital markets helps SITEs smooth out their consumption over time, while absorbing adverse domestic production shocks. This paper provides a comparison of tourism growth, country risk returns and their associated volatilities (or uncertainty) for 2 SITEs, namely Cyprus and Malta. Monthly data are available for both international tourist arrivals and composite country risk ratings compiled by the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) for the period May 1986 to May 2002. The time-varying conditional variances of tourism growth and country risk returns for the 2 SITEs are analysed using multivariate models of conditional volatility. Empirical results show that Cyprus and Malta are complementary destinations for international tourists. Changes to tourism patterns in Cyprus lead to changes to tourism patterns in Malta. Hence, tour operators and national tourism promotion authorities in Cyprus and Malta should collaborate closely in marketing and promoting joint tourism products. Moreover, foreign entities interested in investing in the tourism sectors of Cyprus and Malta should consider investment projects that span a long period of time. The performance of the tourism sector and the associated composite risk are independent of each other for the two countries. However, there is a direct relationship between the tourism sectors of Cyprus and Malta and their respective country risk settings.     

Country Versus Destination Image in a Developing Country

In contrast to the country of origin studies in international marketing, the tourism literature fails to differentiate between the image of the country and that of the destination as a tourism product. The distinction is important for developing countries suffering from negative country perceptions, as opposed to more positive views regarding the tourism destination. Therefore, this research examines the difference between country and destination image in the context of Turkey, and proposes a scale to measure them. The study also provides evidence of this difference and suggests ways in which the destination's image may contribute to improve the country's general perceptions.     

Analysis of Japanese Tourist Demand to Guam

The economy of Guam is highly dependent on tourism. Japanese tourists are especially important as they represent on average 85% of all visitors. While frequent surveys document the preferences, demographics and satisfaction levels of the Japanese, no attempt has been made to determine how the traditional economic demand variables affect arrivals. This study attempted to determine the role of consumer income and prices in creating arrival demand. A single equation, error correction model was used to measure the short- and long-term elasticities of price and income. It was found that income elasticity was very high, while price was not especially significant. In addition, the repeat factor and several catastrophic events were found to be important in determining demand. These results led to a discussion of the theoretical implications regarding the economic and cultural underpinnings of Japanese tourism demand.     

Analysis of international tourist arrivals in China: The role of World Heritage Sites

This paper analyzes the determinants of international tourist arrivals in China, especially for World Heritage Sites and various kinds of travel spots. Utilizing annual provincial panel data over the 2000–2005 period, the empirical results suggest that key determinants include the relative income, population in the original country, cost of travel, and tourism infrastructure. In addition, World Heritage Sites are also found to be significant in explaining the numbers of international tourists and have a greater tourist-enhancing effect. Other famous tourist sites rated 4A- and 3A-class are also attractive to foreign tourism. Moreover, cultural rather than natural sites attract more interest among foreign tourists, because China is internationally renowned for its long-standing historical and cultural assets. Finally, the importance of the determinants of the demand for tourism varies from country to country.     

Americans' intention to visit Cuba as a medical tourism destination: A destination and country image perspective

This study focuses on Americans' perceptions of and intentional behaviors toward Cuba as a medical tourism destination. Using a survey-based quantitative method, the study examined the effects of Cuba's country image and destination image as well as the perceived cost and quality of its medical tourism services on intention to visit Cuba. The results showed that country image and perceived quality of medical tourism services had the greatest positive influence on Americans' intention to travel to Cuba for medical purposes. The study also supported the positive effect of destination image and the negative effect of perceived costs of medical tourism services on intention to visit Cuba. Lastly, the study findings revealed that the better the country and destination image of Cuba, the lower the perceived cost and the higher the perceived quality of its medical tourism services would be.     

Tea heritage tourism: evidence from Sri Lanka

Within the context of heritage tourism this article examines the supply components for the tea-related tourism in the tea-producing country of Sri Lanka, formerly Ceylon. The tourism context in Sri Lanka is assessed and despite impediments to tourism development some evidence is provided of an early stage of development of tea heritage tourism in the country. The benefits of this form of tourism to the Sri Lankan tea economy are explored and barriers and threats to its development are reviewed. This is mainly based on qualitative field studies of tea accommodations, tea factory access and tea centre operations in the tea-producing hill country of Sri Lanka. From this investigation of the tea-related tourism in Sri Lanka, themes for further research on the demand for this type of tourism are identified.