“The Current State of Genetic Testing: An Insurance Industry Perspective on the Rush to Legislate”, Charles S. Jones,Jr., January, 1999

Abstract

We propose a new type of retirement plan, aimed at achieving a compromise between stability in cost for the plan sponsor and guaranteed accumulation for the participants. The behavior of the plan is compared with that of a money purchase plan for both deterministic and stochastic investment scenarios. The proposed plan is shown to provide more stable and predictable benefits than a money purchase plan. Obstacles to the establishment of such a plan, from the perspective of U.S. pensions legislation, are considered.     

“The Future of Risk Classification in the Age of Predictive DNA-Based Testing”, Donald C. Chambers,January 1999

Abstract

The correlation among multiple lines of business plays an important role in quantifying the uncertainty of loss reserves for insurance portfolios. To accommodate correlation, most multivariate loss-reserving methods focus on the pairwise association between corresponding cells in multiple run-off triangles. However, such practice usually relies on the independence assumption across accident years and ignores the calendar year effects that could affect all open claims simultaneously and induce dependencies among loss triangles. To address this issue, we study a Bayesian log-normal model in the prediction of outstanding claims for dependent lines of business. In addition to the pairwise correlation, our method allows for an explicit examination of the correlation due to common calendar year effects. Further, different specifications of the calendar year trend are considered to reflect valuation actuaries’ prior knowledge of claim development. In a case study, we analyze an insurance portfolio of personal and commercial auto lines from a major U.S. property-casualty insurer. It is shown that the incorporation of calendar year effects improves model fit significantly, though it contributes substantively to the predictive variability. The availability of the realizations of predicted claims permits us to perform a retrospective test, which suggests that extra prediction uncertainty is indispensable in modern risk management practices.     

Discussion of “The robustness of the Sabarnes Oxley effect on the U.S. capital market”

In this paper, I use anecdotal evidence and logical reasoning to suggest that, despite the use of an extensive database, it is not possible to conclude that passage of the Sarbanes Oxley Act did not have an impact on companies’ delisting decisions. Moreover, the instrumental variables used to proxy for SOX effects are too weak and suffer from a significant endogeneity problem given that passage of SOX was driven by many of the economic and control problems that are used to control for market and company factors. I also discuss some broader issues about the trade-off between large sample statistical inference and anecdotal analysis for addressing practical questions.     

The Impact of Position Difference on Employees’ Organizational Commitment After the Merger of Life Insurance Companies

We investigate the impacts of job position and survey time period on employee’s organizational commitment of insurance company after the merger. Our results show that both job position and survey time period are significant determinants to employee’s organizational commitment. Results also show that there is no interaction effect between survey time period and job position. For each year, during the survey time period, the mean of organization commitment of agent employees is significantly higher than staff employees. The mean difference of organizational commitment between agent and staff employees shrank year by year during the survey time period.     

“Actuarial Issues in the Novels of Jane Austen”, Daniel D. Skwire,January 1997

Social security systems for old age have been explicitly studied in a public choice framework for more than 30 years. They illustrate extremely well the problems of allocating economic resources through a system of voting. Despite actuarial interest in state pension systems and despite the actuarial calculations that are needed to understand long-term public choice trends, there is almost no reference to public choice economics in the actuarial pensions literature. It can be argued that pension systems currently provide some of the most significant threats to the long-term budget positions of developed countries, a point that was made in the Nobel Laureate lecture of Professor James Buchanan over 24 years ago. In this article, we look at the costs and benefits that will be faced by different groups of voters as a result of state pension reform in the United Kingdom. The results of this analysis suggest that a majority of the electorate will have a strong financial interest in opposing state pension reform except where reform involves raising retirement ages. These results are in accordance not just with theoretical work but with other empirical work and practical observations.