The relationship between china and Siberia/Russian Far East: Economic cooperation and security conflicts*

This paper analyzes the current relationship between China and Siberia/Russian Far East from the economic and political‐security perspectives. The relationship between China and Siberia/Russian Far East is that of cooperation and conflict. China gains natural resources and energy from Siberia/Russian Far East, while Siberia/Russian Far East secures consumer goods, food and labor to fill its shortage from China. The two regions are in an economically complementary relationship. However, they show differences in their interests in issues such as the Tuman River Development Project. If their economic cooperation could be called the “bright” side of their relationship, there exists the “dark” side of their relationship, which is the border dispute. The paper argues that as a way to reduce conflict and increase cooperation in Northeast Asia, a multilateral security/economic organization, tentatively called the “Organization for Security and Cooperation in Northeast Asia,” should soon be established.     

Constructing a global architecture with an American blueprint: The ambivalent U.S. attitude toward Asian regional cooperation

In step with the global trend toward regionalism, there has been significant progress in the development of a regional institutional framework in Asia, although perhaps to a lesser degree than other parts of the world. This is evidenced by the establishment over the past decade of APEC, ASEAN Regional Forum, and other multilateral attempts to address specific security issues. The attitude of the United States toward the development of such institutions for regional cooperation has been quite ambivalent and its approach might be described as ad hoc, utilitarian or instrumental. This paper examines the rhetoric, politics, and policy of America's seemingly ambiguous and inconsistent approach to Asian regional cooperation in an attempt to illustrate the factors that shape U.S. policy toward such efforts.     

中韩合作解决朝核问题探析

自20世纪90年代开始,朝核问题成为威胁东北亚地区安全与稳定的隐患。朝鲜半岛是美国、中国、日本、俄罗斯等国家博弈的焦点。中韩两国在半岛无核化、东北亚地区和平与稳定方面拥有共同利益,从而使两国在朝核问题上存在合作的基础,前景较为广阔。     

国际间经贸合作与区域经济开发是未来东北亚区域经济发展的核心

21世纪是世界各个经济区域进行合作的一个良好开端,因为世界经济的全球化和一体化已趋于走向成熟,随之而来的区域经济合作更富有时代特征,并对世界经济与国际贸易产生了强烈影响。与世界其它地区相比,东北亚地区的区域经济合作发展相对起步较晚,发展速度相对缓慢。本文将从世界经济发展和区域经济开发的角度出发,分析了东北亚区域经济经贸合作的内容和形式,认为这个地区未来在资源开发与合作、工业及加工贸易合作、资金、劳务和科技合作等方面将成为区域经济发展的核心。     

TPP谈判及其对中美贸易的影响

由于多哈回合停滞不前和全球贸易结构尤其是服务贸易结构趋向高级化,加上美国的强力推动,全球贸易规则不断演进,TPP谈判的影响力越来越大。TPP谈判涵盖的内容非常广泛,不仅要求开放服务业,还关注贸易背后的诸如劳工和环境标准的问题,其谈判的分歧取决于谈判各方在多大程度上接受美国的贸易规则。一旦TPP施行,美国服务贸易的优势将得到增强,并且美国贸易商将获得规则上的优势。而对于中国而言,TPP的施行将给中国出口带来负面影响,但中国可以选择深度开放、加强双边或区域经济合作以及利用上海自贸区对TPP规则进行融合等方式来应对TPP的影响。     

东亚金融一体化的动态及其收益

近年来，东亚一系列区域金融合作引起了学术界对地区金融一体化现状和收益的极大兴趣。文章基于价格和数量的测度考察了东亚地区金融一体化的程度：抛补利差和股权溢价的β收敛结果表明，危机之前东亚金融市场的全球和区域一体化并行，但在近几年，区域一体化趋势更强劲，超过了全球一体化；金融引力模型的结果表明，东亚主要的跨境金融投资者的区域内金融资产持有量比金融引力模型预测的水平更大。此外，面板回归确定了较高的金融一体化作为更广泛的金融发展的关键组成部分，会显著降低东亚国家对发达国家的经常账户失衡，因此，区域层面的金融一体化可以作为加强东亚国家的增长来源和提高经济弹性的重要政策路径。     

Regional cooperation for control of transboundary air pollution in East Asia

This paper assesses policy options available for environmental cooperation to abate acid rain pollutants in East Asia. We argue that the multilateral approach, rather than the bilateral one, should be employed as a “control policy.” As for “control strategies,” effective incentive-based environmental policies including a charge system in conjunction with the promoting of cooperation for a regional environmental protocol/treaty are required in order to make up for the lack of contractual enforcement available to participants. As well, joint scientific/economic research is crucial to prevent a free rider problem and to convince regulators that benefits exist from multilateral cooperation. However, trade sanctions will create undesirable side effects and rivalry. Competition may undermine the effectiveness of a side-payment system to abate pollution at the national level.     

China's multilateral approach to world order: Implications for regional cooperation*

Answer to inducing China's active and full participation in regional cooperation scheme in Northeast Asia has been long sought by many. In the course, what they have overlooked is China's willingness to participate in such scheme when the conditions of world order are met: a world order built upon Five Principles of Peaceful Co‐existence, not dominated by one single individual power, and by which national sovereignty is fully guaranteed. Otherwise, China claims, prerequisites for cooperation, confidence and trust, would never be built among the concerned parties. In recent times, China has taken the initiatives to achieve this end, as reflected in its “summit diplomacy”. Thus far, the consequence of such an effort has been regarded very positive. Based on this observation, the paper explores the correlation between the consequence of China's omni‐directional diplomacy and subsequent changes in its attitude toward cooperation at regional level. It finds that there is a strong correlation between the two variables as proven in ASEAN and ARF.     

论长吉图开发开放先导区与拟建中日韩自贸区的交织与互补

当前,一国区域经济发展与国际区域经济一体化交织并存.在东北亚区域经济合作中,正在建设的长吉图开发开放先导区和拟建的中日韩自贸区就是一例.尽管它们涵盖的地理范围不尽相同,合作的方式各异,但同为东北亚区域的局部经济合作,有着促进地区整体繁荣的共同目标.在运行中,彼此并行不悖,相互补益.长吉图开发开放先导区的边境自由贸易区是中日韩自贸区合作的先行试点,中日韩自贸区的建立将进一步推进长吉图开发开放先导区的发展.有理由相信,"两区"之间相互促进,协调发展的前景值得期待.为此,建议中国加快长吉图建设,为组建中日韩自由贸易区创造条件.与此同时,积极推进中日韩自贸区谈判,为长吉图开发开放营造更大发展空间.     

从应对全球经济失衡视角看东亚经济金融合作

经常项目收支失衡加剧是全球经济失衡的重要体现。近年来,以美国为一极的发达国家经常项目逆差急剧膨胀;而包括中国在内的东亚国家和地区的经常项目顺差不断扩张。由于经常项目赤字滚雪球般地急剧膨胀,加上美国储蓄率过低、财政赤字高涨,导致了美国对国际资本的巨大需求。而东亚地区由于汇率体制和对美经济依存等原因,被动地持有大量美元资产并向美国提供大量资金。全球国际收支失衡不断向主要几个国家和地区集中,从中长期来看这种不均衡现象是不可持续的,东亚国家面临极大的风险。这一背景下,加强东亚区域经济金融合作是必然的选择。     

The United Nations and low politics: Environmental & human security in East Asia*

In a world order characterized by ideological conflicts, low politics’ usually goes by the wayside. Policymakers focus on ‘high politics’ such as issues on state security, diplomacy and warfare. The September 11^th attack was an epitome of terrorism that calls for not only the protection of territorial and political security of the state but also the safeguarding of the individual or group from all threats to human survival. This paper raises the issues on ‘environmental security’ and ‘human security,’ particularly in the context of East Asia and reviews the efforts of the United Nations to safeguard the global environment and human rights. Finally, this paper reflects on the future role of the United Nations in non‐traditional security arenas with special emphasis on its role in East Asia.     

Economic integration in northeast Asia: Preconditions and possible trajectories

When in November 2001, the leaders of the Southeast Asian and Northeast Asian states met for the “ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) plus three (China, Japan and Korea),” President Kim Dae‐Jung of South Korea proposed the exploration for an East Asian Free Trade Area (EAFTA) and thereby opened a new chapter of East Asian integration. The special Northeast Asian perspective on regional co‐operation became clear by the simultaneous decision to hold annual meetings of finance and trade ministers of China, Japan and Korea. At the same time, bilateral agreements, like a free trade area between Japan and Singapore, the tentative large free trade area between ASEAN and China and the work‐in‐progress on a Korean‐Japanese Free Trade Area, show the devotion and sometimes even obsession of current policy‐making with reaching regional trade agreements. Regional integration, it seems, is finally on the Northeast Asian agenda. In this paper, the preconditions and perspectives of economic integration in Northeast Asia will be explored. Since economic integration is in various ways linked to political factors, the second section discusses the geo‐political situation of Northeast Asia today. The third section deals with the economic perspectives of different forms of trade integration, followed by an analysis of various attempts for greater macro‐economic and financial co‐operation and a short conclusion.     

中国-东盟自由贸易区的进展、问题及其与ECFA的互动

中国-东盟自贸区建成以来进展顺利,贸易、投资、产业和人员交流增势明显,下一步应理顺产业链合作、加强内部协调机制以及克服信息不对称等问题。在CAFTA的促动下,中国大陆与台湾成功签署ECFA,为两岸经济合作搭建新平台。ECFA以竞争促合作,推动东亚区域经济整合进程,两岸应优势互补,共同参与区域合作与竞争。     

The role of U.S. naval power in the Asia‐pacific region: From regional protector to regional balancer

For more than four decades, U.S. engagement in the Asia‐Pacific was centered on two premises: a Cold War commitment to Asian security and the remarkable economic power of the U.S. The U.S. Navy provided a symbol of the United States’ commitment to protect its interests and those of its major Asian‐pacific allies. Despite the end of the Cold War, the security environment of the Asia‐Pacific region is still less changed and even a new threat of a regional naval arms race emerged in the 1990s. In this context, although forward deployments of U.S. military power in the Western Pacific have been scaled down, it is certain that the U.S. naval force will continue to play an important role as a key “regional balancer.” Amid the collapse of the Soviet Union and in the post‐Cold War era, the U.S. has still emphasized the maintenance of a U.S. forward‐deployed presence and strong defense alliances with U.S. allies in order to prevent the emergence of regional hegemonic powers and to contribute to regional stability as well as improve U.S. economic interests. Moreover, in the face of a multitude of threats from state and non‐state actors, the U.S. Navy is increasingly focused on and driven by the demands of peacetime and crisis forward presence.     

基于TPP的亚太经济一体化前景分析及中国的对策

作为亚太地区新的区域合作政策之一的TPP被看作是美国实现重返亚洲的有力工具,一直以来受到美国的关注和力推,必然对已经存在多种经济合作形式的亚太区域经济一体化进程产生重要的影响。文章首先梳理亚太区域经济一体化进程,提出TPP的由来和发展,并对TPP能否实现多边性区域主义进行剖析,以此作为预测亚太区域经济一体化前景的依据,并为中国进一步参与区域经济一体化提供对策建议。     

美国是东亚区域合作的推动者还是阻碍者?

冷战结束至今,东亚区域合作得到了很大发展。地区多边组织、论坛、会议、自由贸易区等区域合作形式在本地区的政治、安全和经济等诸多领域中扮演着日益重要的角色,包括中国在内的东亚国家都已经在不同程度上介入区域多边合作进程之中。东亚区域合作的进程可能对未来美国与东亚的关系产生意义深远的影响。美国主要根据其自身利益的判断来应对东亚区域合作,对于把美国排除在外的区域合作形式可能采取不欢迎的态度,对于把美国包括在内的区域合作形式则可能采取积极推动的立场。     

论中日韩自由贸易区建立的制约因素

建立中日韩自由贸易区，既符合经济全球化与区域经济一体化迅猛发展的时代潮流，也是打破东北亚区域经济合作难以取得实质性进展的可行途径。但它的建立需要经历一个复杂而又充满挑战的过程，这主要是由于中日韩三国不仅在政治、经济方面存在着差异与差距，并且在开放各自敏感产业部门上也面临着巨大困难。美国的态度也将产生重要的影响。     

东北亚区域经济合作与中国东北经济发展研究

东北亚各国发展水平各异,经济互补性强,合作潜力巨大。东北三省通过不断加强与日本、韩国等周边国家的合作,将为东北振兴开辟更广阔的空间。东北亚有关国家也会从中受益,这对推动地区经济发展、推动东亚经济一体化进程都具有重要意义。     

东亚经济一体化与中国的应对策略

为应对地缘政治时代过渡到地缘经济时代后全球范围内区域经济一体化的潮流,东亚国家需要积极推动本地区的经济一体化。在此进程中中国应有明确的应对策略。要有长期的系统的国际区域经济合作战略,注意所参加的几个国际区域合作组织的相互协调与补充;应支持东盟发挥主导作用,同时要推动中、日、韩的合作。还应充分利用区域经济合作中的要素推动国内区域经济协调发展。     

关于“东亚共同体”构想的几点思考

因东亚地区区情复杂,加上构建东亚共同体也是一个复杂的艰巨工程,有关各方在参与范围、对象等问题上存有分歧,为此东亚共同体建设只能是区域合作的长远目标。从发展趋势看,10+3应该成为共同体的基础,中日韩应该在其中发挥重要作用,加强与区域外国家尤其是美国的政策协调也至关重要。