The diversity of forecasts from macroeconomic models of the US economy

This paper investigates the accuracy and heterogeneity of output growth and inflation forecasts during the current and the four preceding NBER-dated US recessions. We generate forecasts from six different models of the US economy and compare them to professional forecasts from the Federal Reserve??s Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The model parameters and model forecasts are derived from historical data vintages so as to ensure comparability to historical forecasts by professionals. The mean model forecast comes surprisingly close to the mean SPF and Greenbook forecasts in terms of accuracy even though the models only make use of a small number of data series. Model forecasts compare particularly well to professional forecasts at a horizon of three to four quarters and during recoveries. The extent of forecast heterogeneity is similar for model and professional forecasts but varies substantially over time. Thus, forecast heterogeneity constitutes a potentially important source of economic fluctuations. While the particular reasons for diversity in professional forecasts are not observable, the diversity in model forecasts can be traced to different modeling assumptions, information sets and parameter estimates.     

On the political economy of skill in the advanced industrial nations

The importance of education and training policy is being enhanced by its increasingly high profile as a competitive strategy in the age of global capitalism. This article argues that human–capital theory, because it objectifies skill and fails to uncover its social context, offers an inadequate framework for understanding the relationship between the economy and skill systems. An adequate economic framework for understanding changes in education and training systems must be linked to a theory of institutional change in the economy. The article used one such theory, in building on the contributions of the regulation school but concludes that, contra the ideology of post–Fordism and of liberal political economists, a high–wage/high–skills strategy is only one route for capital accumulation in the 1990s, and that this route will only be achieved through conflict. The article concludes that, this used alongside other policies, a progressive education strategy which could be linked with the usage of high skills in industry would have some chance of success in the current era.     

An analysis of the demand for skill in a growing economy

We construct a trade theoretic model of skill formation with skill as a produced intermediate input. Capital is required for production as well as for education which transforms unskilled labor into skilled. We use this model to reflect analytically on India's rising requirement of skilled manpower. We show that even if growth of capital and supply of skilled manpower match, relative stagnation of unskilled manufacturing sector will magnify the gap between growth in demand and supply of skill. This may happen, for example, if there is a vast pool of workforce who may not have even the basic education to qualify as “unskilled” and excessive capital flows into the skilled sector. Thus a country with lack of education at a very basic level will be forced to import skilled manpower from the rest of the world.     

Local content requirements and urban unemployment

Local content requirements (LCRs) are extensively employed in many developing countries that intend to develop the domestic intermediate good sectors as well as the final good sectors. This article investigates the effects of LCRs on the domestic intermediate-good-producing sector, urban unemployment, and welfare.     

Real-time forecasts of economic activity for Latin American economies

Macroeconomic policy decisions in real-time are based on the assessment of current and future economic conditions. Crucially, these assessments are made difficult by the presence of incomplete and noisy data. The problem is more acute for emerging market economies, where most economic data are released infrequently with a (sometimes substantial) lag. This paper evaluates nowcasts and forecasts of real GDP growth using five models for ten Latin American countries. The results indicate the flow of monthly data helps to improve forecast accuracy, and the dynamic factor model consistently produces more accurate nowcasts and forecasts relative to other model specifications, across most of the countries we consider.     

Capital requirements,risk-taking and welfare in a growing economy

Journal of Regulatory Economics - The effects of capital requirements on risk-taking and welfare are studied in an overlapping generations model of endogenous growth with banking, limited...     

Classical political economy: the subsistence wage,and job guarantee concerns

Abstract:

In the theoretical framework of classical political economy, including the revisions of Marx and the more recent work of Piero Sraffa and others, the concept of the subsistence wage figures prominently. Here, following a recounting of this concept and demonstrating its significance not only for classical theory but also for larger social concerns, I argue that the “base wage” (as it is sometimes termed) as articulated within a “Job Guarantee” program, is (or should be) comparable to the subsistence wage but requires modification to make it (roughly) equivalent. It will be demonstrated that adherents of the classical approach did not rest their wage theory on a quasi-neoclassical supply–demand approach (with some primitive marginal productivity notion lying behind a supposed demand for labor schedule), but understood wages as socially determined where institutional and historic forces established a normative standard around which market wages gravitated. Such an approach was shared by, among others, Thorstein Veblen and John Maynard Keynes.     

Assessment of latin American and Caribbean Countries in the international economy

Based on the construction of two composite indices for economic integration, this paper looks at the hierarchical position of Latin America and the Caribbean. The two indices, called the speed of integration and the initial level of integration, are composed of changes and initial values of real trade as a share of GDP, institutional investor rating, FDI as a share of GDP, and manufacturing export as a share of GDP. Mexico ranked first and Peru ranked last for the speed index, while Trinidad and Tobago ranked first and Nicaragua ranked last for the initial level index.     

Youth labour market integration in Spain: Search time, job duration and skill mismatch

In recent years young workers in Spain have had great difficulties in finding and maintaining a job. Furthermore, the early histories of new entrants into the Spanish labour market has typically involved young workers accepting jobs for which the required level of education is lower that the attained level. Using the ad hoc module of the Labour Force Survey (2nd quarter, 2000), in this paper I analyse the transition from school to work for a sample of Spanish youths who left education for the first time after 1990. I allow the search period after completing education, the duration of the first significant job, and the probability of being over-educated in that job to be correlated in a system of simultaneous equations which is estimated by maximum likelihood. The results suggest that over-educated workers experience shorter durations in their first significant job. I do not find a direct effect of search time on employment duration. However, there are unobserved factors that increase the first unemployed job search period after completing education, and that also increase the subsequent employment duration.JEL Classification: C34, J64The data set has been provided by professor Alfonso Alba-Ramírez. I am also grateful to Juan José Dolado, Marcel Jansen, Ricardo Mora, José Ignacio Garía, Juan Francisco Jimeno and two anonymous referees for useful comments and suggestions. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Total factor productivity and R&D capital in the spanish economy, 1965–1980

A formal model of productivity growth and technical progress is presented. The model takes into account embodied and disembodied technical progress as explanatory variables. The slowdown in productivity growth for the Spanish economy after 1972 is explained for 92% by the decline in the rate of growth of technical progress originated from domestic R&D and technology imports.     

The recent process of job polarization in Japan: evidence from 1980 to 2010

This study investigates the recent process of job polarization in Japan. We focus on three particular aspects: the relationship with business cycles, total hours rather than employment and age cohorts. We find that, regardless of whether the focus is employment or total hours, job polarization is concentrated in recessions and that job polarization has occurred mainly in younger-age cohorts.     

新时期下对开放型经济内涵的认识

发展开放型经济已成为主流选择,新时期下要正确深入认识其内涵.十七大报告用"内外联动、互利共赢、安全高效"精辟地阐述了开放型经济体系.开放型经济既要求对外开放,更要求对内开放;开放型经济致力于互利双赢目标并在实施过程中要注重防范国际经济风险.     

The new right and the US economy in the 1980s: an assessment of the economic record of the Reagan administration

This paper discusses the new-right ideas underlying the victory and implementation of ‘Reaganomics’ and examines the economic record of the Reagan administration. Given the preeminence of supply-side economics in the USA in the 1980s, and the supply-side leanings of the Reagan government, attention is focused mainly upon supply-side ideas, policies and claims: although some assessment of monetarist propositions is also provided. In addition to the evaluation of new-right claims, however, a broader assessment of the Reagan administration's record is also undertaken which deals, inter alia, with inflation, growth, unemployment and the ‘twin deficits’. Within this evaluation the social impact of Reaganomics is highlighted as a counterpoint to the claimed economic successes of the Reagan years.     

Partial and system forecasts in scientometrics

Science itself can be considered as a “fuzzy system.” In attempting to deal with possible laws of scientific development we formulate a simple, partial model and illustrate its use as a means to control the strategy of investments in science.     

浅析美国次贷危机及其对长三角经济的影响

美国次贷危机已演变成国际金融危机。其影响范围也已从美国波及到全球,各主要国家纷纷出台拯救金融或经济计划。在这一经济背景下,探讨此次危机产生及演变的原因,分析其对我国长三角经济造成负面影响的传染渠道,寻求相应的对策,对于保持长三角经济平稳快速发展具有重要意义。     

Asian economic success and Latin American failure in the 1980s: new analyses and future policy implications

A striking feature of the world economy during the last decade has been the collapse of economic growth in Latin America whilst industrialization and development have proceeded apace in the Asian countries. This paper, firstly, reviews and assesses alternative hypotheses concerning Asian economic success and the Latin American failure during the 1980s. Secondly, it examines the related question of the long-term development strategies followed by the outstandingly successful east Asian economies. The paper arrives at rather different analyses and policy conclusions on these issues from those of the international financial institutions and the mainstream economists.     

Herding and anchoring in macroeconomic forecasts: the case of the PMI

We test whether analysts display multiple biases in forecasting the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing purchasing manager’s index (PMI). We adopt a test that does not require knowledge of the forecaster’s prior information set and is robust to rational clustering, correlated forecast errors and outliers. We find that analysts forecast the PMI poorly and display multiple biases when forecasting. In particular, forecasters anti-herd and anti-anchor. Anti-herding supports a reputation-based notion that forecasters are rewarded not only for forecast accuracy but also for being the best forecast at a single point in time. Anti-anchoring is consistent with forecasters overreacting to private information. The two biases show a strong positive correlation suggesting that the incentives that elicit anti-herding also elicit anti-anchoring behavior. Both biases result in larger absolute errors, although the effect is stronger for anti-herding.     

低碳经济与中国经济可持续发展

经济危机爆发以来,各国都把气候问题和经济发展愈发紧密地联系在一起,于是低碳经济被提到前所未有的高度.中国经济的快速发展也造成了资源的过度浪费和对环境的过度污染,如何改变产业结构、调整引资战略、加强低碳技术创新以及建立碳交易市场等成为我国可持续发展待解之题.