Demand for temperature and rainfall index insurance in India

Weather index insurance has been attracting considerable attention from academics and policymakers. This study investigates the demand for two types of index insurance sold in India: temperature index insurance for dry season and rainfall index insurance for subsequent monsoon season. Using data from randomized subsidy experiments, we separate purchase and quantity decisions and investigate how demand for rainfall insurance is correlated with demand for temperature insurance sold in the previous season. We find that the price (premium) does not influence purchase decisions per se but does significantly influence quantity decisions. The quantity demanded is less price‐sensitive for subsequent rainfall insurance than it is for temperature insurance. We also find that purchasers of temperature insurance tend to buy rainfall insurance more often than nonpurchasers do. However, a one‐time subsidy does not influence on subsequent demand, suggesting no price‐anchoring effect.     

Effects of subsidized crop insurance on crop choices

This study focuses on how subsidized crop insurance affects crop choices. Crop insurance may change farm investments by reducing risks and providing subsidies. First, actuarially fair insurance reduces risks in crop production and marketing, holding the expected return constant. Second, insurance subsidies encourage farms to purchase crop insurance, which increases the expected return to insured risky crops. Farms also have many self‐insurance mechanisms such as crop diversification or working off the farm. We derive conditions under which (1) unsubsidized and actuarially fair crop insurance or (2) insurance premium subsidies lead to more investment in a risky higher return crop. We then examine the role of self‐insurance for these conditions. The impact of premium subsidies is decomposed into a direct profit effect and an indirect coverage effect. These effects are explained by substitutions between market insurance and self‐insurance and between a risky crop and a safe crop. We discuss each effect as a combination of subsidy and risk effects. Numerical illustrations show that an insurance subsidy has a larger impact on risky crop investments compared to that of an input subsidy when farms are more risk‐averse and have high costs of self‐insurance. The framework provides a novel way to evaluate subsidized crop insurance programs.     

Adoption of weather‐index insurance: learning from willingness to pay among a panel of households in rural Ethiopia

In this article we examine which farmers would be early entrants into weather‐index insurance markets in Ethiopia, were such markets to develop on a large scale. We do this by examining the determinants of willingness to pay for weather insurance among 1,400 Ethiopian households that have been tracked for 15 years as part of the Ethiopian Rural household Survey. This provides both historical and current information with which to assess the determinants of demand. We find that educated, wealthier individuals are more likely to purchase insurance. Risk aversion is associated with low insurance take‐up suggesting that models of technology adoption can inform the purchase and spread of weather index insurance. We also assess how willingness to pay varied as two key characteristics of the contract were varied and found that basis risk reduces demand for insurance particularly when the price of the contract is high, and that provision of insurance through groups is preferred by female headed households and individuals with lower levels of education.     

Managing economic risk in value-based marketing of fed cattle

This research investigates optimal price risk management strategies for fed cattle producers engaged in grid pricing. Stochastic simulation is used to determine optimal hedge ratios for fed cattle priced on a live weight basis or on a series of grids that vary in terms of premium/discount structure as well as base price. Results indicate that the optimal hedging strategy is greatly affected by the base price used in a particular grid. This has significant implications for pricing efficiency in the cattle market. Base prices that are linked more closely with downstream markets offer the potential to improve pricing efficiency; however, the risk associated with these prices is difficult to manage effectively with existing futures instruments.     

Coping with systemic risk in index‐based crop insurance

The implementation of index‐based crop insurance is often impeded by the existence of systemic risk of insured losses. We assess the effectiveness of two strategies for coping with systemic risk: regional diversification and securitization with catastrophe (CAT) bonds. The analysis is conducted in an equilibrium pricing framework which allows the optimal price of the insurance and the number of traded contracts to be determined. We also explore the role of basis risk and risk aversion of market agents. The model is applied to a hypothetical area yield insurance for rice producers in northeast China. If yields in two regions are positively correlated, we find that enlarging the insured area leads to higher insurance premiums. Unless capital market investors are very risk averse, a CAT bond written on an area yield index outperforms regional diversification in terms of certainty equivalents of both farmers and insurers.     

Weather index insurance for agricultural development: introduction and overview

This introductory paper highlights the key attributes of weather index insurance, and summarizes the major points and conclusions of the three subsequent papers included in the special issue.     

Non-parametric estimation of decision makers' risk aversion

A new non‐parametric method to estimate a decision maker's coefficient of absolute risk aversion from observed economic behaviour is explained. The method uses the expected value‐variance (E‐V) framework and quadratic programming. An empirical illustration is given using Norwegian farm‐level data.     

The impact of water conservation and intensification technologies: empirical evidence for rice farmers in Ghana

This study employs the propensity score matching model to examine the impact of the adoption of water conservation and intensification technologies on farm output and income among small-scale lowland rice farmers in the Northern Region of Ghana. The matching was conducted based on the Mahalanobis distance combined with the propensity score. Balancing tests by checking the mean standardized absolute bias in the matched sample were conducted as well as a sensitivity analysis was conducted to check for hidden bias due to unobservable selection. The empirical results show a positive and significant impact of the adoption of bunds technology on input demand as well as a positive but insignificant impact on output supply and net returns. Adopters of the dibbling technology were found to have higher output supply, whereas no statistically significant difference was found between the incomes of adopters and nonadopters of dibbling seed method. The results, however, reveal a positive and significant effect on output and net returns when the dibbling method is combined with intensified weeding. The estimates were found to be relatively insensitive to hidden bias.     

Hedging dairy production losses using weather-based index insurance

This article proposes a temperature–humidity index insurance product and examines whether this product can effectively protect against the risk of reduced milk production caused by heat stress. Results suggest that even when premiums are at higher than actuarially fair levels and the insurance purchaser is faced with both spatial and temporal basis risks, a temperature–humidity index insurance product would provide risk management benefits to a representative south‐central Georgia dairy producer.     

Gender,control, and crop choice in northern Mozambique

Women play an important role in the agricultural production process in developing countries, yet their role in making decisions about what to grow and implications for household welfare remains poorly understood. In this article, I study women's empowerment in northern Mozambique as it relates to agriculture, considering in particular the factors associated with women managing the plots that they nominally control. Women control about 30% of the plots in the data, but only manage about 70% of those plots. Using a unique panel data set, I find that women are more likely to manage plots when households have had historic access to off‐farm labor, typically completed by men. When women manage plots, they tend to grow crops with less complicated production techniques and are less likely to grow the main area cash crop. However, conditional on historic access to off‐farm labor their farm incomes are the same as among men.     

Production risk,risk aversion and the determination of risk attitudes among Spanish rice producers

Agricultural production is subject to risk and the attitudes of producers toward risk will influence input choices insofar as these affect production risk. Risk attitudes in turn may be affected by certain socioeconomic characteristics of producers. Using 2004 survey data from a cross‐section of 130 Spanish rice farms, we estimate risk‐aversion coefficients of farmers and investigate the influence of a series of socioeconomic variables on their risk attitudes. Our results show that farmers exhibit risk‐averse behavior and that risk attitudes are related to a series of socioeconomic characteristics. In particular, the belief that the farm will continue after the producer retires is found to increase the degree of risk aversion, while age is found to have nonlinear effects on risk aversion. Off‐farm income, especially from nonagricultural activities, is found to reduce risk aversion. Neither the educational level of the producer nor the presence of dependents on the household is found to have an effect on risk preferences. Regarding the production technology, we find that land, labor, and fitosanitary products are risk‐reducing inputs, whereas capital, seeds, and fertilizer all increase risk.     

Analyzing technology adoption using microstudies: limitations, challenges, and opportunities for improvement

Policy makers and interest groups have many questions about the use of improved technologies in developing country agriculture. These include the roles of policies, institutions, and infrastructure in the adoption of improved technologies and their impact on productivity and welfare. Most micro‐level adoption studies, however, cannot address these important policy issues. Drawing on an extensive review of the literature on the adoption of agricultural technologies, this article suggests alternative approaches for designing technology adoption studies to make them useful for policy makers. It explores the generic limitations of cross‐sectional adoption studies carried out in small numbers of communities and discusses some problems faced in conducting such studies. Recommendations include the use of sampling approaches that allow data from microstudies to be generalized to higher levels of aggregation, adherence to clearly defined terms that are standardized across studies, and careful examination of the assumptions that often underlie such studies.     

Are small‐scale rice farmers in eastern India really inefficient? Examining the effects of microtopography on technical efficiency estimates

The article analyzes how controlling for differences in land types (defined by position on a low‐scale toposequence) affects estimates of farm technical efficiency for rice farms in eastern India. Contrasting previous research, we find that farms are considerably more technically efficient when efficiency estimates are carried out at the plot level and control for plot characteristics rather than at the farm level without such controls. Estimates show farms cultivating modern varieties are technically efficient and plots planted with traditional varieties on less productive lands (upland and midupland) operate close to the production frontier. Significant technical inefficiency is found on more productive lands (medium and lowland plots) planted with traditional rice varieties. The finding that these smallholder rain‐fed rice farms are efficient cultivators on some plots contrasts with previous findings of farm‐level inefficiency (i.e., rejects overarching explanations linked to farm operator ignorance or lack of motivation) and suggests more complex explanations are required to address the inefficiency that is present.     

Consistency of risk premium measures

This research uses the results of a series of within‐sample experiments to elicit risk premium measures from agricultural producers. Results show that there is little consistency between measures in different contexts and using different elicitation methods, suggesting that underlying risk preferences are not consistent. These results highlight some of the difficulty with expected utility theory and risk measurement.     

Measuring the effect of risk attitude on marketing behavior

Despite extensive study, researchers continue to search for consistent and reliable measures of risk preferences to explain market behavior. We find that a measure, combining experiments rooted in expected utility theory and measures derived from surveys, explains spot and contractual sales, but does not exhibit substantially greater explanatory power than its underlying components. Survey‐based measures are generally more significant indicators of marketing choices, but experimental measures reveal how risk attitudes vary over a range of probable outcomes, which is important in light of increased commodity price volatility. Given recently identified limitations on the applicability of expected utility theory, we suggest that researchers include survey methods to obtain low‐cost supplemental measures.     

Agricultural diversification and integrated pest management in Bangladesh

We study factors associated with a shift toward diversified, high‐valued vegetable crops and the incentives associated with the use of IPM methods for vegetable producers in Bangladesh. The primary objective is to measure how IPM technologies affect the crop and technology choices of low‐income rice farmers. A three‐season household optimisation model is used to study crop and technology choice under price and yield uncertainty. The model is parameterised using data from vegetable farms and experimental IPM trials conducted in Bangladesh. Simulation results show that access to IPM technology and IPM availability combined with access to credit increase household welfare and lead to higher rates of vegetable adoption. Off‐farm employment opportunities work against vegetable cultivation and IPM use by risk‐averse farmers. Implications for policy and extension efforts are highlighted.     

Farmer management of production risk on degraded lands: the role of wheat variety diversity in the Tigray region, Ethiopia

This article investigates the effects of wheat genetic diversity and land degradation on risk and agricultural productivity in less favored production environments of a developing agricultural economy. Drawing production data from a household survey conducted in the highlands of Ethiopia, we estimate a stochastic production function to evaluate the effects of variety richness, land degradation, and their interaction on the mean and the variance of wheat yield. Ethiopia is a center of diversity for durum wheat and farmers manage complex variety mixtures on multiple plots. Econometric evidence shows that variety richness increases farm productivity. Variety richness also reduces yield variability but only for high levels of genetic diversity. Simulations with estimated parameters illustrate how planting more diverse durum wheat varieties on multiple plots contribute to improving farmer's welfare.     

The efficiency of composite weather index insurance in hedging rice yield risk: evidence from China

As an economic and market‐transparent program, weather index insurance is expected to mitigate asymmetric problem. Capturing the relationship between yield and weather factor(s) is the basis of index insurance, but remains a challenge for weather index schemes. Meanwhile, composite weather index insurance is needed by farmers when their agricultural activities involve several risks, but is rarely studied. We aim to design a composite weather index insurance model and evaluate its efficiency in hedging yield risk by using the case of rice production in China. We divide the whole growth cycle of rice into six stages on the basis of agronomic knowledge, and use the average value of each weather factor in each stage to design a weather index. Then, the efficiency of composite weather index insurance is evaluated by mean‐semivariance and value‐at‐risk methods. First, we find that subdivision of the growth cycle helps to better capture the subtle relationship between rice yield and weather factors. Second, composite weather index insurance evidently reduces yield risk. Our findings help further adoption of weather index insurance in agricultural fields.     

A trait-based model of the potential demand for a genetically engineered food crop in a developing economy

We predict the potential demand of smallholder farmers for genetically transformed varieties of a food crop, the cooking banana of the East African highlands. Farmer demand for planting material is derived in an agricultural household model that accounts for variety traits and missing markets. The demand for candidate host varieties is predicted using a Zero‐Inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression system. The fitted model is used to illustrate the sensitivity of farmer demand for improved planting material to (a) investments in research and development, represented by the effectiveness of gene insertion and expression, and (b) other public investments in education, extension, and market infrastructure that support diffusion. By comparing the characteristics of agricultural households we demonstrate that the choice of host variety can have social consequences, favoring one rural population compared with another. Clients for transgenic banana planting material are likely to be poorer, subsistence‐oriented farmers in areas greatly affected by biotic constraints. A model of this type might be useful in assessing the investments needed to support the systematic dissemination of improved planting material. The approach can be generalized to other crop biotechnologies for smallholder farming systems, particularly in developing economies.     

Modern variety adoption and risk management in drought prone areas: insights from the sorghum farmers of eastern Ethiopia

Adoption rates of improved or modern varieties (MV) of sorghum in eastern Ethiopia are generally low. Although these MV may represent an effective means of coping with droughts, given their early maturing traits, landraces could prove to be more drought‐tolerant and better adapted to marginal production conditions. Whether MV adoption is a risk reducing technology is very much an empirical question which this article investigates using a unique dataset from eastern Ethiopia in a year of extreme weather conditions. Results show that risk‐factors coupled with access to markets and social capital drive farmers’ decisions to adopt MVs. On the one hand, it appears that farmers use MVs to mitigate moderate risks. On the other hand, farmers who have been most vulnerable to extreme weather events are less likely to use MVs suggesting that MV adoption does not necessarily represent an effective means of coping with drought. Finally, findings show that MV growers are more likely to be affected by sorghum failure once controlling for exogenous production factors.