FURTHER THOUGHTS ON THE BANKING IMPUTATION IN THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS*

The banking problem in the National Accounts arises because interest rates paid by banks on deposits are generally lower than the rates charged for loans and service charges levied by banks are generally less than the cost of the banking services provided. This paper offers two explanations for such observations: first there is the new neo-classical theory of private banking and central banking which suggests that they arise because of distorting “taxes” levied by regulating central banks. Second there is the Keynesian theory which accounts for the observations by the fact that the public good services of monetary stabilization supplied directly by the central banks and indirectly by private banks cannot be priced. Both theories account for the empirical observations giving rise to the banking problem. Neither theory lends support to the banking imputation currently carried out in most National Accounts.     

INFLATION,NONOPTIMAL MONETARY ARRANGEMENTS AND THE BANKING IMPUTATION IN THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS*

This paper demonstrates, with the use of some recent developments in neoclassical monetary theory, that the banking imputation problem in the national accounts arises because of the regulation of banks by Authorities. It demonstrates as well that the banking imputation problem is a manifestation of the failure of the Authorities to provide optimal monetary arrangements. Some comments on existing imputations, in the light of this theory, are provided.     

THEORIES OF THE BANKING FIRM: A REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE*

This paper reviews the theoretical literature on the banking firm. Apart from studies dealing purely with the reasons why banks exist, the survey is fairly comprehensive in that it covers the main categories of microeconomic models of bank behaviour. The emphasis is on recent work, which also includes modern, information-based, theories of loan commitments, credit rationing, collateral and the bank-client relationship.     

基于自上而下模型的银行操作风险压力测试——以5家上市银行为例

操作风险管理是现代商业银行风险管理的重要内容。本文根据中国商业银行业的实际情况,选择基于上市银行股票收益的自上而下模型度量操作风险。采用2003年1季度～2009年3季度中国5家上市银行的交易数据和其他21个经济指标,计算了股票收益中操作风险所占比重,并以此作为操作风险压力测试的基准。然后选用情景分析方法,将2009年第4季度各样本银行以及外部数据作为历史情景代入到计量模型进行压力测试。研究表明,5家上市银行的股票收益中操作风险所占比率有很大波动,其中上海浦东发展银行和华夏银行的变动尤为突出,表明中国商业银行存在相当高的操作风险。     

银行业竞争、客户筛选与村镇银行二元绩效：传导机制与实证研究*

村镇银行承担着支持“三农”和发展普惠金融的重要使命,但关于银行业竞争对村镇银行经营绩效的影响及其传导机制的研究较少。利用江苏省县域村镇银行2008年至2013年的面板数据,在数理模型分析的基础上实证检验了银行业竞争对村镇银行财务绩效和社会绩效的影响。结果表明,银行业竞争显著降低了村镇银行的财务绩效,但显著提升了社会绩效。进一步分析发现,银行业竞争通过改变村镇银行市场定位和客户筛选行为的作用机制,影响村镇银行经营绩效。因此,应坚持金融改革的市场化方向并建立更加精准的补贴机制,促进村镇银行在可持续发展的同时提升社会绩效。     

什么决定了中国商业银行的高盈利

本文分银行和省际两个层面探讨了中国商业银行高盈利的原因。研究结果显示,经济持续良好的增长使人们的收入不断提高,人们对银行产品和服务的需求日益高涨,而政府对存款利率和民间金融等的严格控制,使商业银行处于供不应求和相对垄断的地位。这些是商业银行利润持续走高的最主要原因。虽然2003年开始的银行业改革使银行的市场化程度大幅提升,但是中国的商业银行仍不是自主经营的真正企业。银行的利润主要是宏观和政策环境给予的,这也是银行的高利润备受市场批评的主要原因。     

Overcapacities in banking: Measurement,trends and determinants

Global banks face profitability challenges since the global financial crisis. Besides cyclical factors, structural features such as overcapacities have been identified as root causes. While policymakers agree on the need for bank consolidation, there is less consensus on the definition and measurement of overcapacities in banking. This paper contributes by conceptualising and formalising the different dimensions of overcapacities in banking and by constructing a novel measure thereof. In addition, it empirically tests the main determinants of overcapacities in banking from 2006 to 2017 and assesses their relative importance. The results indicate that non-bank competition, the interest rate environment and bank business models are the most important driving factors of banking sector overcapacities. This is because shadow banks, benefitting from regulatory arbitrage, have altered banks’ capacity needs, low rates compressed margins and increased pressure to improve cost efficiencies, and retail-oriented business models have operated extensive branch networks entailing heavy fixed costs.     

The cost-output relationship of banks revisited

This paper offers a different method for the analysis of economies to scale in banks. It concentrates on the characteristics of the cost surface rather than on those of the cost function. This facilitates a direct test for the existence of interproduct complementarity in banks. The paper suggests that the interest charges should be examined as part of the banks' operating costs. This study offers two main empirical results regarding a more efficient growth pattern and organizational structure of banks. First, it shows that a proportionate increase in bank outputs does not reduce the average costs of production, and secondly, it reveals that the production process of banks involves interproduct complementarity.     

THE TRANSMISSION OF THE MONETARY POLICY IN THE EURO AREA: THE ROLE OF THE BANKS’ BUSINESS MODEL

This paper sheds some new light on the incidence of the banks’ business model as a component of the bank lending channel in the euro area. Differently from existing literature, the analysis is led on the basis of the two main macroeconomic regions that today characterize the euro area: its north‐east (German‐centric) and south‐west halves. The observation period is 2008–2013, mainly featured by the financial and economic crisis. The empirical findings evidence that in the north‐east half of the euro area the cooperative banks leveraged the effects of the reduction in the interest rates in terms of new lending. In this respect, they differentiated from commercial and savings banks, which showed a more neutral impact on the transmission of the monetary policy decisions. These results highlight the distinctive role of the cooperative banks in terms of credit provision in Germany and in the whole north‐east half of the euro area. Nevertheless, this cooperative banking effect did not emerge for the south‐west half of the continent, particularly hit by the crisis. This may suggest that the bank's business model tend to be neutral to the transmission of the monetary policy in economies characterized by prolonged recessions.     

银行业结构对中小企业融资的影响*

本文结合世界银行关于中国中小企业的调查数据和中国银监会发布的银行业分布数据,分析了银行业结构与中小企业融资的关系。本文发现：银行业结构与中小企业受到信贷配给的概率呈现“U型”关系,即存在最优水平的银行业集中度使中小企业受到信贷约束的概率最低。根据本文研究,我国银行业集中度总体上高于最优水平,但不同地区又有所差异。本文还发现,考察银行业集中度不能只关注国有大型商业银行比重的下降,大型股份制商业银行比重的替代性上升也没有有效解决中小企业融资难的问题。因此,鼓励发展中小金融机构,才是支持中小企业融资的有效途径。     

中国银行业改革思路

本文首先简要分析了中国银行体系存在的主要问题以及产生这些问题的原因。然后,在此基础上进一步提出了中国银行改革应该遵循的原则和一些具体的改革设想。最后,文章还对银行业的对内开放进行了讨论.     

外资银行进入对我国银行效率影响的实证分析

本文选取我国银行市场上占主要地位的14家银行1994-2004年的面板数据,就外资银行进入对我国银行业效率影响进行了实证分析.实证结果表明:外资银行的进入使得国内银行的流动性、非利息收入、经营费用和资产收益率降低,并使其资产质量下降,风险增加,但是技术外溢效应以及对国内银行盈利性的影响并不显著.而且,金融业的对外开放对国有银行造成的冲击小于股份制银行.本文还根据实证分析结果,提出相应的政策建议.     

Industrial loans and market structure

Based on the observation that financing is one of the main obstacles to create new firms, this paper deals with the interactions between the market structure of both the banking sector and the borrowing industries. We consider that firms’ installation costs are financed by means of industrial loans from specialized banks. With endogenous entry in banking activity as well as in the borrowing industry, we find that a natural oligopoly emerges in both sectors if the entry cost in the industrial sector is small enough, relative to the banks’ entry cost.     

中国发展私人银行业务的策略研究

私人银行是以财富管理为核心,向拥有高净资产的私人客户提供的一种个性化的高端金融服务。近些年中国的富裕阶层迅速扩大,资产管理需求强劲,私人银行业务正越来越显现出巨大的增长潜力。随着中国金融业的全面开放,具有丰富经验的外资银行也瞄准了拥有巨大潜力的中国私人银行业务市场,私人银行业务成为中外资银行竞争的焦点。由于中国相关法律法规的缺失和中国商业银行自身所存在的种种问题,中国银行开展私人银行业务尚面临着许多的困难和挑战。因此,在借鉴国外银行开展私人银行业务的经验的基础上,通过分析中国私人银行业务发展的必要性和可行性以及现阶段存在的问题,提出中国私人银行业务的发展策略。     

Public Sector Banks in India: Rationale and Prerequisites for reform

This paper contributes to the debate on public sector banks by suggesting several rationales for government ownership of banks in India. The paper then proceeds to argue that due to high economic costs, the current public sector banking system is unsustainable. Although a policy of wider private ownership was introduced in the 1990s, it is suggested that there are several prerequisites to be met before such a reform can be more fully implemented. It is argued that these prerequisites arise from the rationales for government ownership, and they include a credible bank regulatory regime, and government promotion of co‐operative banks and credit unions.     

ON THE WELFARE PROPERTIES OF FRACTIONAL RESERVE BANKING

Monetary economists have long recognized a tension between the benefits of fractional reserve banking, such as the ability to undertake more profitable (long‐term) investment opportunities, and the difficulties associated with it, such as the risk of insolvency for each bank and the associated losses to bank liability holders. I show that a specific banking arrangement (a joint‐liability scheme) provides an effective mechanism for ensuring the ex post transfer of reserves from liquid banks to illiquid banks, so it is possible to select a socially efficient reserve ratio in the banking system that preserves the safety of bank liabilities as a store of value and maximizes the rate of return paid to bank liability holders.     

中国银行业改革的侧重点:产权结构还是市场结构

本文对运用SCP(结构—行为—绩效 )框架及其从行业结构的角度揭示中国银行业主要问题的思路及提炼出的政策含义提出了批评 ,认为在现代技术不断改变着银行运作机制、主要发达国家的银行业的行业结构进一步向集中化发展、各个银行在努力追求规模经济和范围经济效应的背景下 ,中国银行业保持一定程度的集中率是符合国际银行业发展趋势的。中国银行业的主要问题是国有银行产权结构单一 ,而不是行业集中的问题。从行业结构的角度为突破口的改革将可能导致中国经济的振荡。正是中国银行业的资产与市场份额集中于带病的国有商业银行 ,改革的侧重点就不能从行业结构的调整为起点 ,而是相反 ,要充分利用进入WTO后的有限的过渡期 ,在国有银行的市场份额发生显著萎缩之前 ,坚决地进行国有商业银行的产权改革 ,努力避免潜在金融风险的总爆发。     

银行服务创新战略分析：基于浙江调查

针对银行服务创新战略问题,采用简单定量分析方法,选取在浙银行为研究样本,对创新目标、创新方向、创新模式和创新领域四个要素进行系统分析。结果表明,浙江的银行根据自身的特点形成了各具特色的银行服务创新战略:总体上,浙江银行业以提升服务质量为创新目标进行有意识、系统化、基于市场信息的创新活动,并制定了市场细分和差异化战略,进而实行产品创新;其中,非国有银行和区域性银行以扩大市场份额为创新目标,采取定制化战略模式;在创新领域上,非国有银行重视产品创新,区域性银行重点进行营销创新。     

金融压力、所有制结构与银行风险承担——基于中国影子银行活动的实证研究*

2008年金融危机之后，监测与防范系统性金融风险、维护金融稳定成为各国监管机构的工作重点。本文构建了一个反映我国系统性金融风险的中国金融压力指数（FSIC）。基于此，本文研究不同所有制结构的商业银行将如何调整影子银行业务以应对系统性金融风险。实证结果表明，当金融压力上升时，相较于国有银行，非国有银行的风险承担水平显著上升。进一步研究发现，这一差异与两类银行对影子银行这一风险业务的调整有关。当金融压力上升时，国有银行会显著减少影子银行业务，而非国有银行的影子银行业务不会减少。本文提出了国有银行的双重职能这一观点来解释实证研究的发现。本文的研究结论对于指导我国金融市场化改革和防范系统性金融风险具有重要启示。