基于Braincell的广西旅游物流需求预测研究

旅游物流的需求预测对旅游产业的发展影响很大,而旅游物流本身的独特性和复杂性使一般方法在进行旅游物流需求预测时具有很大的难度,且预测的精度差。为了克服一般方法需求预测的局限性及旅游物流数据的不完整性,文章建立了基于神经网络的旅游物流预测模型,利用神经网络理论和Braincell软件对广西旅游物流需求进行预测,极大程度的提高了旅游物流预测的准确性。     

基于灰色模型的旅游流量预测方法探讨——以河北省为例

灰色预测模型GM(1,1)是一种旅游流量预测模型,本文根据2000年～2005年河北省海外游客量的统计数据,利用灰色模型对河北省2010年前的海外游客量进行了预测。通过分析,灰色预测模型具有较高的建模精度,预测方法和结果对旅游地规划具有一定的参考作用。     

中国大陆赴香港旅游预测模型

旅游人数预测是旅游业经济分析和发展战略规划中的关键问题。本研究选择适当的方法建立中国大陆到香港旅游预测模型，为制定香港旅游战略规划提供决策依据。首先建立包括六个因素预测理论模型，然后用神经网络、移动平均、时间序列平滑模型和多元回归方法建立旅游定量预测模型，结果显示神经网络模型优于其他三种模型。     

安徽旅游业发展分析及对策

本文采用实证研究和比较研究相结合的研究方法,对安徽旅游业的发展做出了技术经济分析。在采用灰色预测模型对安徽旅游业的发展趋势做了有意义的预测基础上,进一步对安徽省旅游业的发展策略提出了一系列建议。     

基于MATLAB的粤东西北地区旅游收入和人数灰色预测研究

运用灰色模型对原始数据进行预处理后,对旅游客源人数及收入情况进行预测分析,可以为区域旅游业的发展提供决策参考。文章选取广东省粤东西北地区12个城市的8个年度的统计数据,以接待过夜旅游者人数、旅游收入变量分析为基础,依托MATLAB平台、运用灰色预测模型,做好预测精度检验,对2014年至2018年粤东西北地区旅游收入与人数作外推预测,得出科学预测值,并就粤东西北地区旅游发展的优劣势,提出区域旅游转型发展的策略。     

城市旅游客源市场规模预测模型的构建

在国家加快城市化建设的步伐中,城市旅游的发展也在齐头并进。而一个城市旅游客源市场规模折射出城市旅游产业发展状况。本文引入"引力模型"的思想,通过旅游城市供给的吸引力、客源市场需求的推力和两地之间阻力量化指标体系的分析,初步构建城市旅游客源市场规模预测模型,为城市经济的旅游发展规划或预测提供决策参考。     

基于灰色系统理论的雅安旅游需求预测

文章运用灰色系统理论,通过构建GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,实现对雅安未来旅游的主要指标进行预测并做出一定的分析。通过残差检验、后验差检验和关联度检验,获得满意的预测效果,预测结果数据精确,具有广泛的实用性。     

基于Mse准则的TSK模糊系统无锡旅游游客量的预测

随着国民经济高速持续发展和人民生活水平的提高,我国旅游市场日益繁荣,旅游业对国民经济的发展起着不可估量的作用。[1]因此建立正确的、科学的旅游需求预测模型,是制定旅游发展战略,推动旅游业持续发展的理论基础和前提。[2]本文基于Mse准则的TSK模糊系统对无锡旅游游客量进行预测,以便有关部门参考。     

城市旅游客源市场规模预测模型的构建

在国家加快城市化建设的步伐中，城市旅游的发展也在齐头并进。而一个城市旅游客源市场规模折射出城市旅游产业发展状况。本文引入“引力模型”的思想，通过旅游城市供给的吸引力、客源市场需求的推力和两地之间阻力量化指标体系的分析，初步构建城市旅游客源市场规模预测模型，为城市经济的旅游发展规划或预测提供决策参考。     

安徽省旅游业可持续发展的指标体系研究

安徽旅游业可持续发展的指标体系的建立,对于安徽旅游可持续发展具有重要意义。从安徽旅游的产业、资源、环境、接待四个方面,建立了32个要素组成的安徽旅游可持续发展指标体系,并探讨了安徽旅游可持续发展综合评价指标体系的建立步骤及计算方法。     

An analysis of risk factors associated with road crash severities in Namibia

Abstract

Road crash is a leading cause of death and disabilities in Namibia and other developing countries. Based on recent trends, the World Health Organization indicated that progress to realize Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 3.6 – which calls for a 50% reduction in the number of road traffic deaths by 2020 – remains far from sufficient. To contribute to efforts in reducing road fatalities in Namibia, this study examined risk factors associated with the severity of crashes recorded in the country. Mixed logit modelling methodology was adopted to address the problem of unobserved heterogeneity in injury severity analysis. Model estimation results reveal that collision with pedestrians, head-on collisions, ran-off road collisions and crashes involving high occupancy passenger vehicles were more likely to result in fatalities and severe injuries. The findings and recommendations of this study are expected to enhance countermeasure implementation to reduce road crashes in Namibia.     

Extended investigation on road fatality in Brunei

Road fatality is one of the leading causes of death in Brunei with 79 deaths in 1993, the highest ever recorded. The Brunei government has been trying to reduce this by implementing new traffic measures and successfully reduced fatalities to 24 fatalities in 2014. Yearly road fatality has been fluctuating, but there has been a declining tendency overall. The aim of this study is to investigate road fatality in Brunei by extending the research. We developed a multiple regression model and carried out an analysis on road fatality in Brunei. Our analysis indicates that the road fatality appears to rise depending on the increase in the number of young drivers between 15 to 24 years and the number of unemployed people. Comparisons of Brunei road fatality rate per 10,000 vehicles are made with some other countries and we conclude that Brunei has approximately the same rate as Australia in 2014.     

Network impacts of distance-based road user charging

Distance-based road user charging is being seen as one potential mechanism to implement national road charging schemes. This paper investigates the design aspects of universal distance-based charging schemes and incorporates procedures within a detailed network supply model to represent how a range of different permutations of distance-based charges across a given network (charging regimes) affect route-choice, travel characteristics and demand for road space. The results suggest that distance-based charging can reduce number and length of trips, congestion, accidents and pollution, and provide net economic benefits and revenues. However, these benefits are not found to be uniform throughout the network. Their magnitude largely depends on the charge level, the hierarchy of charges across the network, and the difference between the charge levels.     

A review of powered-two-wheeler behaviour and safety

Powered-two-wheelers (PTWs) constitute a very vulnerable type of road users. The notable increase in their share in traffic and the high risk of severe accident occurrence raise the need for further research. However, current research on PTW safety is not as extensive as for other road users (passenger cars, etc.). Consequently, the objective of this research is to provide a critical review of research on Power-Two-Wheeler behaviour and safety with regard to data collection, methods of analysis and contributory factors, and discuss the needs for further research. Both macroscopic analyses (accident frequency, accident rates and severity) and microscopic analyses (PTW rider behaviour, interaction with other motorised traffic) are examined and discussed in this paper. The research gaps and the needs for future research are identified, discussed and put in a broad framework. When the interactions between behaviour, accident frequency/rates and severity are co-considered and co-investigated with the various contributory factors (riders, other users, road and traffic environment, vehicles), the accident and injury causes as well as the related solutions are better identified.     

Evolutionary game-theoretic model for dynamic congestion pricing in multi-class traffic networks

This paper describes an evolutionary game-theoretic learning model for dynamic congestion pricing in urban road networks, taking into account route choice stochasticity and reliability considerations, and the heterogeneity of users, in terms of their value of travel time and real-time information acquisition. The learning model represents the dynamic adjustments of users to travel cost changes which may take place in the day-to-day as well as the within-day timescales. The implementation into a simplified and a real urban road network signifies the important implications of modeling the dynamic and stochastic learning components of users’ behavior for accommodating the efficient deployment of congestion pricing schemes.     

The Economics of Private Business Jet Travel

The use of private air travel for business trips has expanded rapidly over the past few decades. We estimate that the number of U.S. domestic passenger trips per year on business aircraft exceeded 17 million in 2007, or a number equal to about 40 percent of combined domestic first-class, business-class, and full-fare coach airline trips—travel options for which passengers also pay a premium for timeliness, comfort, or privacy. Once a company determines that it can benefit from private business travel, it generally identifies the most cost-effective option, including the operating characteristics of the aircraft and the options for obtaining this service. This paper examines some of the factors that influence decisions on these options, with particular emphasis on the financial and program alternatives that are making it less costly for business travelers to take advantage of private jet travel, thereby expanding its use. Our findings indicate that the customary view of these options is oversimplified and ignores the new ownership (or non-ownership) models for obtaining use of a business aircraft.     

Parameters affecting seat belt use in Greece

The objective of this research is the exploration of seat belt use in Greece and particularly the identification of the parameters affecting seat belt use in Greece. A national field survey was conducted for the analytical recording of seat belt use. A binary logistic regression model was developed, and the impact of each parameter on seat belt use in Greece was quantified. Parameters included in the model concern characteristics of car occupants (gender, age and position in the car), the type of the car and the type of the road network. The data collection revealed that in Greece, the non-use of seat belt on the urban road network was higher than on the national and rural road network and young and older men use seat belts the least. The developed model showed that travelling on a national road is negative for not wearing the seat belt. Finally, the variable with the highest impact on not wearing a seat belt is being a passenger on the back seats.     

Exceeding the speed limit: prevalence and determinants in Iran

Speeding is one of the most common risk behaviours associated with crashes causing signficant injury. The objective of this study is to explore the prevalence and determinants of speeding on a road between Tehran and Hamadan, Iran. In a cross-sectional study in 2009, stretches of the road were studied including three groups of posted speed limits: < 50 km/h, 50–100 km/h and > 100 km/h. Each stretch was evaluated both in daylight and dark. Randomly identified driver's speed was checked by a handheld speed camera and then the driver was invited to participate in a survey. Statistical analysis was performed using Chi-Square, crude and adjusted odds ratio, 95% confidence interval and multiple logistic regression models. Overall, 52.8% of the drivers were travelling more than 10 km/h above the posted limit. Where limits were < 50 km/h, 74.6% of drivers were speeding. This declined to 46.9% for sections with limits between 50 and 100 km/h and to 36.9% for sections posted more than 100 km/h. Finally, more than half the drivers were observed to be speeding. Driving more than the posted limit was far more likely on the areas with the lowest posted speed limits, personal passenger vehicles, modern vehicles not using seat belts, and male drivers.     

Parameters affecting seat belt use in Greece

The objective of this research is the exploration of seat belt use in Greece and particularly the identification of the parameters affecting seat belt use in Greece. A national field survey was conducted for the analytical recording of seat belt use. A binary logistic regression model was developed, and the impact of each parameter on seat belt use in Greece was quantified. Parameters included in the model concern characteristics of car occupants (gender, age and position in the car), the type of the car and the type of the road network. The data collection revealed that in Greece, the non-use of seat belt on the urban road network was higher than on the national and rural road network and young and older men use seat belts the least. The developed model showed that travelling on a national road is negative for not wearing the seat belt. Finally, the variable with the highest impact on not wearing a seat belt is being a passenger on the back seats.     

First motorcycle-exclusive lane (Motovia) in Colombia: perceptions of users in Cali, 2012–2013

This study's goal was to evaluate the pilot exclusive lane for motorcycles (Motovía) in Cali, Colombia, from the perception of its users in 2012–2013. A cross-sectional study using roadside surveys plus a qualitative component of individual semi-structured interviews was carried out. Road users' perceptions were investigated before and after implementation of lane dividers (LD) and were compared with other roads in the city. Perceptions were compared using chi-square tests. In the study, 293 motorcyclists, 111 cyclists, and 115 automobile drivers were interviewed. Following the installation of the LD, the majority of motorcyclists and cyclists reported that LD made easier the driving maneuvers and decreased travel time, in contrast to perceptions of automobile drivers (p < 0.001). For most motorcyclists, the Motovia was considered as safe and effective, approving its continuity and replication. Half of automobile drivers and cyclists did not approve the installation of the Motovia due to travel time (drivers) and security issues (cyclists). Motovia is an option to enhance motorcyclists' safety on the road. It must, however, offer clear circulation alternatives for automobile drivers. According to users' perception, it is not safe for bicycles and other human-powered vehicles to share lanes with motorcycles. Further research about vulnerable road users' infrastructure is required.