Splines and the proportion of the seasonal period as a season index

In this paper a seasonal model is proposed to deal with heterogeneous seasonal patterns, in which neither the length of the seasonal period nor the magnitude of the seasonal effects remains the same over time. In these settings, there is a need for parsimony and flexibility. To this end, the seasonal effect at a season is defined as a function of the proportion of the length of the seasonal period elapsed up to this season, and the seasonal pattern is modelled by means of evolving splines. The methodology is illustrated for weekly Canary tomato exports.     

Restricted capacity and rent dissipation in a regulated open access fishery

A common strategy for limiting the total annual catch in a fishery is to restrict entry and season length. We examine the results of this strategy when entry limitation amounts to a limit on capital, but fishing firms can vary an unrestricted input, and thereby use the restricted input more intensively. Under these regulatory constraints, fishing firms will earn rents that depend on the elasticity of substitution between restricted and unrestricted inputs. Using simulations with data from the Alaskan pollock fishery, rents and season length are shown to depend on fish and variable input prices, sometimes in surprisingly non-monotonic ways.     

Betting market inefficiencies are short-lived in German professional football

In this article, we argue that potential inefficiencies on betting markets are more likely to exist at the very beginning of a season, when the available information on the teams’ playing strength is difficult to evaluate. This lack of reliable information should be particularly large in the case of recently promoted teams that have typically undergone major changes in the composition of their roster following their promotion. Without any information on the latter teams’ potential performance, they are particularly difficult to evaluate, which may eventually lead to inefficiencies and positive returns on investment in the betting market. We analyse odds from German first division Bundesliga soccer for the seasons from 2002/03 to 2015/16 to find betting market inefficiencies at the start of the season. As expected, betting on recently promoted team wins generates temporarily positive returns, especially for away games. These results suggest bookmakers to underestimate promoted teams’ ability to familiarize with the conditions in the new league, such as having to play in front of larger, often hostile crowds.     

A bioeconomic model for estimating the optimal level of deer and tag sales

This paper presents a dynamic model that determines the optimal number of deer hunting permit sales, subject to the objective of maximizing the discounted economic benefits stream from both the consumptive and nonconsumptive uses of deer. This bioeconomic model integrates economic benefits estimated using the dichotomous choice contingent valuation method with biological growth constraints on deer. Using a hunting zone in California as a case study, the model found that the optimal levels of buck hunting permits sold should change on a rotational basis over time and that the current practice of not selling doe hunting permits for that zone is non optimal.     

Valuing deer hunting ecosystem services from farm landscapes

Agricultural land provides a wide variety ecosystem services to individuals. These agroecosystem services include wildlife and biodiversity, which in turn support recreational opportunities such as hunting and wildlife viewing. Using the random utility travel cost model, we provide an estimate to illustrate the potential value of the white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) provisioning and recreational services provided by these ecosystems to deer hunters, as well as the value of providing deer hunters public access to a percentage of agricultural land.     

Joint estimation of contingent valuation survey responses

Hanemann's utility difference model for the dichotomous choice contingent valuation method is modified to account for interrelationships between responses to a set of contingent valuation questions. A nonlinear seemingly unrelated regression model is presented to jointly estimate the probit models and to derive WTP from the CV responses. The model is used to test and impose restrictions derived from economic theory on the utility difference model. Mean WTP estimates for three different types of changes in the quality of California deer hunting were uniformly lower for the joint response probit model compared to a set of independent probit models.     

Wage-distance regulation in social-welfare programs: An option-theory perspective

It is often argued that low-skilled workers have an incentive to escape to the unofficial sector if welfare benefits come too close to the net wage in the official sector. Upper limits of welfare benefits often serve as an instrument to ensure a sufficiently high income differnetial between sectors. However, if unofficial-sector income is insecure, and if a change of sectors is costly, an option value of working in the official sector has to be taken into account. This option value reduces the incentive for lowly skilled workers to give up official-sector jobs. Upper limits of welfare benefits might therefore be defined less restrictively.     

Livestock management at northern latitudes: Potential economic effects of climate change in sheep farming

We study the economy and ecology of sheep farming under future climate change scenarios. The analysis is at the farm level and includes two different categories of the animals, ewes (adult females) and lambs with a crucial distinction between the outdoor grazing season and the winter indoor season. The model is formulated in a Nordic economic and biological setting. During the outdoor grazing season, animals may experience growth constraints as a result of limited grazing resources. The available grazing resources are determined by animal density (stocking rate) and weather conditions potentially affecting the weight, and hence, the value of lambs. Because empirical evidence suggests that climate changes, e.g., increased temperature, have contrasting effects on lamb weights depending on the location of the farm, the spatial effects of such changes are analyzed.     

Structural change and industrial classification

Understanding of structural change is compromised because scholars do not clearly articulate the limits of the classification infrastructure (NAICS or GICS) that shapes empirical analysis. These limits are particularly salient in the study of innovation, an activity that by its nature challenges existing categories. Because innovative industries are often not part of the classification infrastructure, they are invisible in empirical analyses and in government statistics. This paper examines the classification of a population of highly innovative, often small, firms working in gaming devices, packaging, filtration, photonics, imaging, biomedical research and fabless semiconductor design. I find examples of knowledge integration, vertical disintegration and emerging industries that challenge both NAICS and GICS exposing their strengths and weaknesses.     

寒地城市儿童不同季节住区户外活动 特征及空间规划启示

进行户外活动是促进儿童身体和心理健康成长的重 要条件,寒地城市的季节变化对儿童的户外活动特征影响显 著,作为儿童主要活动载体的住区空间设计如何去回应这些特 征的季节性变化需要重视。为探讨寒地城市2~6岁儿童不同季 节的活动特征如何指导住区空间设计,选取哈尔滨市中北春 城、欧洲新城、恒祥城3个典型住区,分别于暖季节、过渡季 节和冷季节进行实地调研,利用问卷调查、行为注记、微气候 实测和相关性分析等方法,研究了儿童不同季节的户外活动特 征及其与住区空间的关系,在此基础上从目标定位、空间布局 和环境营造三方面提出寒地住区空间的设计策略。     

Fewer Fish for Higher Profits? Price Response and Economic Incentives in Global Tuna Fisheries Management

This paper evaluates industry-wide economic incentives arising from changes in product prices in an industry exploiting a common renewable resource (tropical tunas) that is regulated via output limits. Changes in prices alter economic incentives by affecting revenues, profits, conservation, and nonmarket public benefits. Economic incentives in industries exploiting common resources have been examined from multiple angles. However, industry level variation in market prices arising from changes in public regulation has not been explored. We analyse the impact on economic incentives due to changes in output limits and market prices through estimation of ex-vessel price and scale flexibilities for imported skipjack and yellowfin in Thailand’s cannery market. The unitary scale flexibility, estimated from the General Synthetic Inverse Demand Systems, indicates no loss in revenue and even potential profit increases resulting from lower harvest levels that could arise from lower catch limits. However, for a revenue neutral or positive outcome to be achieved, the three inter-governmental tuna Regional Fisheries Management Organizations, which manage the majority of the yellowfin and skipjack tuna in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, would have to coordinate multilaterally to set the catch limits for both species.     

The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture: Findings from Households in Vietnam

This paper examines farm household-level impacts of climate change by examining the relationship between climatic variables and Vietnamese agricultural output. The Ricardian technique is applied with panel data which accounts for both adaptation strategies and household characteristics. This study proposes a two-stage Hsiao model to correct for collinearity between climatic variables and individual effects. The results show that in the dry season, increases in temperatures are beneficial to all farms in the warmer southern regions, while increases in precipitation will damage only irrigated farms in the Central and South regions. The impact of higher temperature in the wet season is similar, except that it will negatively affect net revenue of irrigated farms in the long run. More rainfall in the wet season will increase net revenue in the North region only. Finally, this study combines the estimated results with future climate scenarios to predict how future changes in climate will affect farmers on aggregate.     

员工职业发展模式创新

我国企业目前已经进入员工“职业枯竭”与“职业高原”的高发期。构建员工纵向、横向与同心圆发展的职业发展三维模型,更新职业发展管理对象和管理重心,平衡企业中职业发展阶梯宽度、长度和频度的关系,将是现代企业缓解或消除“职业枯竭”与“职业高原”现象的有效途径。     

河南省旅游流时空变化的预测及发展趋势

本文分析了河南省旅游流的时空分布变化,建立了国际旅游流时间分布的预测模型,预测了河南省未来国际、国内旅游流时间和空间分布的发展趋势。     

UNBALANCED SCHEDULES AND THE ESTIMATION OF COMPETITIVE BALANCE IN THE SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Since the season ending in 2001, the Scottish Premier League (SPL) has, unlike other European football leagues, utilised an unbalanced schedule, by which the strongest teams in a given season play each other an extra time, mutatis mutandis for the weakest teams. While this approach may make sense for several reasons, it also has implications for within-season measures of competitive balance, because it creates biases in the set of win ratios from the end-of-season league table. This paper applies a simple log-probability rule to calculate a set of adjusted win ratios correcting for this inherent bias. Such an adjustment is necessary if one wishes to compare within-season competitive balance of the SPL with other European leagues. It is shown that by correcting for the unbalanced schedule, the SPL is consistently less competitive over the sample period. The implications of this finding are discussed at length.     

State limits in the early twenty‐first century: Observations on form and function

It is dangerous to draw too many conclusions about the form and function of state borders in the early twenty‐first century. Marked regional differences are developing and, with a few exceptions such as Europe, there is scarcity of empirical evidence about the changes taking place. Some trends, however, seem clear. There are likely to be more states and more land and maritime boundaries in future, and states will continue to regard the establishment and protection of their territorial limits as a priority. As the power and influence of states seem to diminish in response to globalisation, the reassertion of territoriality by governments is both legitimate and is often popular with the people. While many boundaries will become more permeable, some will remain as significant barriers to people and goods, although not to ideas and information on the Internet. Attention is drawn to the emerging political and economic blocs that may create striking regional contrasts in boundary form and function by mid‐century.     

我国活鸡价格波动分析与预测

本文运用时间序列分析的X12方法和H-P滤波,获得了我国2001年1月至2009年10月活鸡价格序列的周期成分。周期成分的分析结果表明,活鸡价格存在长约26～40个月的波动周期,而且周期长度有随时间推移变长的趋势。肉雏鸡和肉鸡饲料价格波动轨迹与活鸡价格波动轨迹相似。此外,活鸡价格序列分析显示,禽流感疫情对其价格产生重大冲击。进一步地,用Holter-Winter模型对活鸡价格进行预测,得到了样本外推12个月的预测结果。     

Can statisticians beat surgeons at the planning of operations?

The planning of operations in the Academic Medical Center is primarily based on the assessments of the length of the operation by the surgeons. We investigate whether duration models employing the information available at the moment the planning is made, offer a better alternative. Our empirical results indicate that statistical methods often do better than surgeons. This does not imply that the surgeons’ predictions do not contain valuable information. This information is a key explanatory variable in our statistical models. What our conclusion does entail is that a correction of the predictions of surgeons is possible because they are often under- or overestimating the actual length of operations.     

Non-market Value of Winter Outdoor Recreation in the Swiss Alps: The Case of Val Bedretto

A longstanding interest from environmental economists on winter outdoor recreation has overlooked activities practiced outside the boundaries of winter resorts—e.g. ski mountaineering. This paper implements the Travel Cost Method to estimate consumer surplus per season derived from ski mountaineering and snowshoeing in Val Bedretto—a valley located in the Swiss Alps. In addition, the Contingent Behavior Method is used to estimate the changes in welfare associated with the construction of an alpine center that would provide services aiming to reduce the risk of injury and death associated with winter outdoor recreation. The data is analyzed by means of latent class panel on-site count models. The latent class approach allows us to identify subpopulations that benefit from the alpine center. The results show that 33% of visitors would experience an increase in their consumer surplus per season equivalent to €31 per visitor.