统一大市场的共同富裕效应研究

全国统一大市场建设不仅是中国经济高质量发展的必由之路,也是促进全体人民共同富裕的内在要求。基于2006-2019年城市面板数据,构建共同富裕指标体系,实证检验市场一体化对共同富裕的影响效应。研究表明,提高市场一体化程度有助于促进共同富裕的实现,统一大市场建设具有共同富裕效应,这一结论经过各种稳健性检验以及缓解内生性问题后仍然成立。机制分析表明,市场一体化主要是通过提高劳动和资本要素配置效率,推动区域创新创业,进而促进共同富裕。异质性分析表明,在东部地区和城市群地区,市场一体化对共同富裕的促进作用更明显。该研究结果为地方政府加快统一大市场建设提供了重要的经验证据和政策参考,对加快共同富裕进程有着重要意义。     

我国食糖市场价格整合关系研究

本文运用ADF检验、协整分析、Granger因果检验等方法,对我国18个食糖市场的价格整合以及引导关系进行了计量分析.研究发现,我国食糖市场的总体整合程度还是较好的,除了合肥、乌鲁木齐之外,其余市场间相互整合程度较好,说明我国食糖市场一体化程度较高,各地价格长期走势较为统一;我国销区食糖市场的价格联系相 对于产区市场更为紧密,销区市场之间的价格影响表现出更强的互动性;此外,我国食糖市场价格主要是供给方(产区)引导需求方(销区)价格的变化.     

中国碳市场一体化程度研究——基于中国试点省市样本数据的分析

构建全国统一的碳市场迫在眉睫,深入研究中国碳市场的一体化程度问题能够为全国统一碳市场的构建提供理论支持.文章以中国试点省市碳市场数据为样本,基于价格传导机制视角,利用最新发展的有向无环图(DAG)等方法首次探讨了中国碳市场的一体化程度问题.研究结果表明:中国碳市场在一体化方面已取得一定成果,但整体一体化程度依然有待提高;湖北碳市场和广东碳市场影响其他试点省市碳市场的程度更高,中国碳市场局部中心化趋势凸显.文章从滚动时间窗口角度进一步论证了上述实证结果的稳健性.在此基础上,首次构建中国碳市场价格传导理论框架,通过经济基础说和市场传染说等理论进一步分析了中国碳市场之间相互影响的传导机理,并详细解释了中国碳市场整体一体化程度不高和局部中心化凸显的内在原因,可为全国统一碳市场的启动提供理论与实证支撑.基于上述实证结果,文章从五个方面给出了相关政策建议.     

汇率制度、经济开放度与中国需求政策的有效性

在全球经济金融一体化的背景下,中国对外经济开放度的提高对需求、供给政策的有效性产生了复杂深刻的影响。本文通过构建OR模型分析框架,分析了不同汇率制度下金融市场和商品市场一体化程度对需求政策、利率泰勒规则、财政供给和劳动供给政策有效性的影响。根据理论分析和数值模拟以及以中国年度数据进行实证检验,提出了一个可检验的假说,表明开放条件宏观政策的有效性取决于商品市场和金融市场一体化程度及二者的相互作用。     

迈向统一市场：基于城市数据对中国商品市场分割的测算与分析*

统一的国内大市场对区域专业化分工和发挥规模效应起着重要作用。本文采用价格法系统测算了2001-2015年间各城市的商品市场分割程度,并考察了影响商品市场分割的地区因素。研究发现：（1）除2008-2009年商品市场分割短暂加剧以外,2001-2015年间商品市场分割程度整体呈现下降态势。（2）各地区在市场一体化进程方面存在明显差距,东南部地区的市场整合程度高于西部地区。全国层面的商品市场分割程度大于局部地区层面的市场分割程度。（3）地区间竞争会促使地方政府干预市场,加剧商品市场分割;而较好的经济发展条件和市场规模的扩大会减轻地区间恶性竞争,促进区域市场一体化。（4）城市层面的商品市场分割受行政区划的影响表现出一定的规律性：省界会阻碍城市之间的贸易往来,加剧商品市场分割。     

江西省商品市场一体化水平测度——基于产出结构的视角

文章基于产出结构的视角,采用产业结构相似度和Krugman专业化指数这两个指标对1992-2017年江西省商品市场一体化水平进行了测度。结果表明,江西省商品市场一体化水平有所提高,但程度有限,1992-2001年期间市场是逐渐分割的,2002以后年市场才呈现出整合趋势。最后,文章对加速推进江西省商品市场一体化进程提出了相关的政策建议。     

国内市场一体化对出口技术复杂度提升的门槛效应研究

利用中国2003-2016年30个省份的面板数据,采用门槛回归模型实证检验了市场一体化对出口技术复杂度的影响效应及约束机制。研究结果表明,市场一体化对出口技术复杂度的影响具有门槛效应和边际效率递增的非线性特征。市场一体化水平只有跨越一定门槛才会对出口技术复杂度提升发挥积极作用。同时,市场一体化对出口技术复杂度的提升作用还受到人力资本和创新能力的约束。只有在人力资本和创新能力达到一定水平时,市场一体化对出口技术复杂度的提升作用才能充分发挥,并且随着人力资本水平和创新能力的提高,这种促进作用将越来越强。这一结论对中国推动国内统一大市场建设,提高人力资本和科技创新水平,实现贸易强国目标具有借鉴意义。     

现阶段中国市场分割程度的测算——以全国猪肉市场为例

主要运用全国各地的猪肉市场的价格，来测算全国各地方保护程度的大小。通过模型分析发现中国各地区之间猪肉市场的价格差异与全国各地的距离、各地的收入水平之间的相关程度不是很大。这说明中国各地区的价格人为性较高，也就是说，各地区的地方保护程度比较严重。利用各地区猪肉价格的时间序列作协整检验结果发现，76．85％的省际之间的猪肉价格不存在协整关系，但是，通过计算市场联系指数发现，在短期内，各地区之间的价格与中心市场（辽宁省）的价格还是存在一定的联系。     

经济一体化绩效差异分析及中国参与国际经济合作的选择

区域经济一体化的市场规模扩大效应决定了一体化的收益,而一体化的交易成本则制约了一体化的程度。本文将二者结合起来,从一体化促进分工的角度说明了北-北型一体化、南-北型一体化和南-南型一体化在经济绩效上的差异,对中国参与区域经济一体化合作给出了建议。     

地区偏袒下的市场整合

分割的国内市场与高速的经济增长是中国转轨经济的两个主要特征,现有研究将之归因于制度性的政府行为,而忽视了政府集体行动背后的官员偏好。本文从地方官员个体的地区偏袒角度探讨了非制度性因素对市场整合的影响。我们利用各地区的商品价格差异度量了市场整合程度,基于关联地的信息构造了地区偏袒的度量,研究发现:(1)与非关联地相比,官员会对其关联地实施更弱的市场分割策略,平均下降7个百分点,存在地区偏袒的市场整合效应。这一结论在经过多种稳健性检验之后仍然成立。(2)这种效应更多体现在官员出生地、母校、下乡等成长关联地上;而在第一工作地、来源地等工作关联地并不明显。(3)这种效应仅出现在那些可流动的商品中,也因官员任期、辖区市场分割动机以及官员对关联地偏袒动机而异。本文的结论发现官员地区偏袒具有整合区域间市场的功能,这说明充分发挥官员异地交流作用可能是低制度成本整合市场的可行措施。     

A NOTE ON MARKET COVERAGE IN VERTICAL DIFFERENTIATION MODELS WITH FIXED COSTS

With fixed costs of quality improvement, we find that a covered market outcome with an interior solution in the price stage is not a Nash equilibrium. When the degree of consumer heterogeneity is high (low) enough, an uncovered market outcome (a covered market outcome with a corner solution in the price stage) is the only Nash equilibrium. When the degree of consumer heterogeneity is moderate, both of the two market outcomes are Nash equilibria, but an uncovered market outcome yields higher social welfare than a covered market outcome with a corner solution in the price stage.     

Information,Pricing and Efficiency in Cash and Futures Markets: The Case of Hogs

The price leadership roles among hog cash and futures markets are assessed to locate points of price discovery and to examine flows of information among these markets. Several years of data are analyzed using lead/lag causality analysis and strength of linear causality measures. Although significant instantaneous relationships exist among hog cash and futures markets, one-way causality tests indicate that generally the futures market dominates cash hog markets in the price discovery process.     

Assessing the Degree of Spot Market Integration for U.S. Natural Gas: Evidence from Daily Price Data

This paper assesses the degree of market integration in the U.S. natural gas market following the FERC’s ‘open access’ reforms. Daily spot prices at 76 market locations from 1993 to 1997 are used to examine the geographic extent of the market and the speed with which market forces move prices toward equilibrium in the face of ongoing price shocks. The empirical results suggest that the East and Central regions form a highly integrated market, but that this market is quite segmented from the more loosely integrated Western market.     

Economic hysteresis in hog production

German hog production only responds in a very limited way to price fluctuations in the pork market. The hog production concentrates on a few regions though it is not bound to special natural conditions such as soil quality. Furthermore, the volume of production does not vary over time. Relatively high market risks, sunk costs and the flexibility of the decision maker to defer investments characterize decision problems in hog production. Thus the real option approach is chosen to explain the inertia in production capacity. By the use of panel data of specialized hog farms from the German Farm Accountancy Data Network, an empirical investment model is estimated. Formally, the model has the structure of a generalized ordered probit model. This approach allows to test for economic hysteresis in the adjustment of hog production capacity. The results confirm that uncertainty and flexibility widen the optimal range of inaction.     

Domestic market integration and the law of one price in Brazil

This article presents the first assessment of domestic market integration in Brazil using the law of one price. The law of one price is tested using two panel unit root methodologies and a unique data set comprising price indices for 51 products across 11 metro-areas. We find that the law holds for most tradable products and, not surprisingly, nontradable products are found to be less likely to satisfy the law of one price. While these findings are consistent with evidence found for other countries, price convergence occurs very slowly in Brazil, suggesting relatively limited domestic market integration.     

How natural disasters affect the evolution of grain markets: evidence from 18th-century China

Market is the foundation of modern society. However, how did market evolve? Previous research has explored the impacts of spatial distance and transportation conditions on market integration. This article argues that natural disasters also played a crucial role in the evolution of market integration in China, particularly in the grain market. When natural disasters occur, governments’ relief measures and merchants’ arbitrage activities will gradually promote interconnectivity among local grain markets. In this article, China’s major grain monthly price data set from 1746 to 1795 and the Chinese historical disaster records dataset from 1696 to 1795 are used to analyse the impact of natural disasters on grain market integration. The empirical results show that natural disasters have a significantly positive effect on the integration of the grain market. The findings continue to hold after controlling the traffic conditions, grain varieties and lag effect. This study proposes a new perspective for understanding the evolution of the grain market.     

Have food and financial markets integrated?

This article analyses comovements and discusses possibly greater market integration between aggregate food commodity and stock prices in the period 1990 to 2012. Return correlations, price return distributions, cointegration and Granger-causalities are tested in subsamples on monthly FAO Food Price Index and MSCI World Stock Market Index. Empirical results suggest that while there is only weak indication of greater comovements concurrent with structural changes such as changed agricultural policies, new demand due to growth in emerging markets and energy mandates and the financialization of food markets since the early 2000s, they did start to increase substantially in particular during the financial stress of the Lehman crisis and the Great Recession. While structural changes may have amplified price linkages across markets, results do not suggest that they are the key factors for greater price comovements. Instead, the effects of the late-2000s recession as a time of great economic weakness and uncertainty may have changed concurrently the behaviour of both food and financial market participants, such that different market prices exhibit large comovements.     

农产品市场价格关系研究进展

从市场整合和市场边际两个方面评述了国内外农产品市场价格关系研究。首先介绍了空间分离市场均衡理论以及农产品市场价格关系研究的分析框架,然后评述了国内外市场整合和市场边际研究的进程,重点介绍了计量模型的发展与应用,指出供应链体系的市场整合和非对称性价格传递是现阶段的研究热点。最后提出要注意模型选择与数据可获得性等问题对研究结论的影响。     

基于胡佛地方化系数的中国市场一体化测度及趋势分析

国际经验表明，市场一体化是推动经济发展的重要动力。改革开放以来，中国产品市场一体化程度得到显著提高，但市场分割仍较为严重，成为制约我国经济持续健康发展的重要瓶颈。文章利用胡佛地方化系数测度我国产品市场一体化程度，量化分析其变化趋势。结果基本支持“中国产品市场一体化随改革深入而提高”的判断，但市场一体化推进速度远不及众多研究宣称的那样乐观。究其原因，尽管导致市场分割的技术因素（交通、通讯、信息网络）已大为减弱，但阻碍市场一体化的体制因素仍较为突出。最后，针对以上问题给出加快市场一体化进程的对策建议。